Saturday, March 1, 2014

(Who's) Got The Eye of the Tiger?"

(Who's) Got The Eye of the Tiger?"
- Katy Perry in the 2013 single Roar

LATEST NWS REGIONAL WARNING MAP | DAY 1-3 LIQUID PROJECTIONS 
  • AREAS OF HEAVIEST SNOW MAY BE ALONG I-81 TO I-64 CORRIDOR TO SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND DC METRO OVER TO MIDDLE EASTERN SHORE
  • HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED 5-10 AM WITH RATES OF 2"/HOUR POSSIBLE. A LULL AROUND NOON WITH A SECOND BURST 1-3 PM.
  • NEAR-ZERO TEMPS TUE MORNING FOR THE OHIO VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC & NORTHEAST

11:00 PM 3/2 (UPDATE FROM WSC TEAM) Warnings to the south and Advisories to the north? That's not normal! (By Forecaster Mike & Advisor Foot)




  • This may be that rare storm where Annapolis ends up with more snow than York, PA. We have many important details included in this post so be sure to read ahead! The NWS in State College is responsible for southern PA and has downgraded to Winter Weather Advisories in response to lesser totals across the border.



  • TIMING - We expect sleet/freezing rain to start mixing in from north to south around 9PM-Midnight. We are in a lull in between two waves of precipitation right now. Light mixing with snow is possible for the northern counties in between the waves. Then after midnight the snow will push southward increasing in intensity. The heaviest snow is anticipated during the morning rush hour from 4AM-Noon, with the heavier rates south of Baltimore. 

  • ACCUMULATIONS: In general we expect 4-8" towards the north near the Mason-Dixon line, and 6-10" further south. We do think a heavy snow band will set up, likely near of south of DC-Annapolis, and stretching westward. This band could be similar to December 8th, 2013, just in a different area. 

OUTDOOR EQUIPMENT OR SERVICING? For Central Maryland readers, we recommend the good folks at GAMBRILLS EQUIPMENT CO. in Severn, Anne Arundel County. They have a full line of snow throwers up to 21", top names in big saws, as well as service many outdoor equipment types including tractors, mowers, snowblowers and more. It's not too late to get heavy-duty equipment for this storm: 410-969-3947



6:25 PM 3/2 ( UPDATE FROM WSC TEAM) March 2014 roars in like a lion! Or a full pride of lions might be more accurate. Here is our latest timing and snowfall accumulation expectations from the Winter Stormcast Team. See below for the most current snow map:
  • TIMING: Rain moving in now, mixing with sleet and freezing rain later this evening, then switching to all snow from north to south late tonight. The heaviest snow is expected Monday morning. 

  • ACCUMULATIONS: Widespread 6-10" with lesser amounts of 4-8" along the Mason-Dixon line. We expect a band of higher amounts (8-14") to set up, but the precise location is uncertain. 

  • TEMPS: Bitterly cold conditions are expected Monday night, with temperatures falling to the single digits for much of the region, and possibly below 0ºF for the northern suburbs.
BOTTOM LINE: This is a rare beast for this time of year! It looks like a high impact event for many places. We are watching the potential for shifts in this accumulation expectations, so stay tuned! 


  (Forecasters Mike, Andrew, Julian, Jason, Advisors Foot, Keith, Rob, Brad)


11:50 AM 3/2 (UPDATE from Maryland Team) Latest indications from radar and observations show a large batch of moisture working east with the Arctic front. We expect temps will top out in the next 2-3 hours then drift down as precip moves in by 3 PM from west to east. For our current snowfall and timing map, please scroll down! The big concerns are:

1) If temps end up lower than expected today, rain could change to sleet more quickly, then to freezing rain in early evening.

2) High water content in the energy coming northeast means once rain mixes with sleet, it could begin falling very heavily anytime after 9 PM, and continue for several hours before changing to all snow from southwest to northeast. Areas nearest the Bay and I-95 will be last to changeover to all snow, closer to midnight.

3) The real question-- how much time do you have today?? If you plan to make final outdoor preparations before precip, we think you have until about 3 PM - then until about 6 PM before frozen precip starts to mix in from north to south. Northern areas along the PA/MD line should see mixing first, between 4-6 PM.

Let us know as soon as you see precip in your area-- even those far flung from Cen MD, distant obs are very helpful no matter the location!



"ROADS? Where we're going, 
we don't NEED roads!"
- Doc Brown in 1985's Back To The Future

7:15 AM 3/2 (Winter Stormcast Team) After this unforgiving winter of discontent, we bet you all would prefer going BACK to the future of warm, snowless winters right? Well, not in this reality, or at least in this winter.


THE SITUATION: A potentially overperforming and even high impact storm is plowing the nation asunder as massive amounts of liquid from the Pacific are coming on shore in California, and will become incorporated in a southward sliding Arctic front. In fact the cold to come on Monday in the Mid-Atlantic may be the coldest in ten years for this month, since the days after the February 2003 blizzard that saw a similar early March Arctic outbreak. 

This will be a most unusual storm in it's intensity and duration for early March in the major metro areas, as well as for it's expansiveness across the entire Nation. As for our headline, once you see how the storm plays out you'll understand the unique nature of what is to come by Monday morning across VA, MD, DE and PA. 


TIMING
  • ON SUNDAY: The storm gets underway in the Mid-Atlantic in a relatively calm manner. No wall of white or crushing burst of wind. But that will belie a more sneaky development: A slithersome Arctic front that is pressing in as seen on radar. Temperatures may cross 50 F in some areas near DC and on the eastern shore. It might even feel warm for a couple hours. Be advised: It is a weather ruse from Old Man Winter. 
  • SUNDAY NIGHT: Rain develops by mid afternoon across much of the region as temperatures begin the slide from 45-50 to the upper 30s by nightfall.  This should last until the evening hours, where a change to a wintry mix of rain, sleet, and snow is expected around 8-10pm for the entire area. Sleet will continue to mix with all snow after midnight. Expect some breaks in precipitation during the late overnight time period. 
  • MONDAY MORNING: Heavy snow will become the dominant precipitation type between 5-7 AM as temperatures continue to dive, dropping to below freezing before the morning commute, so anything that is not frozen by that time will be by 7-8 AM. 
  • MONDAY AM TO EVENING: Were Clint Eastwood a forecaster, Monday's setup would NOT make his day. The heaviest snowfall will occur across the region during the hours of 6 AM-3 PM, and begin to taper off after that time. This final round of heavier snowfall will impact PA east of the Susquehanna and the entire Maryland, New Jersey, and Philly metro and suburb areas. Those to the north and west will see the bulk of the storm taper off by morning. 

AMOUNTS: This virtual "coast to coast" storm will have liquid input from THREE (or FOUR) major bodies of water! The Pacific, the Great Lakes (that are not frozen over), the Gulf of Mexico AND the Atlantic. So yes, it will be wet. NOAA Precipitation projections have been showing well over an inch of liquid for the entire multi-state region for this storm.


  • As shown on our map, we project the axis of heaviest snow to setup along and within 50 miles either side of the I-95 corridor. The area of 6-12" denotes that we believe a number of heavy snow bands will develop Monday morning. The southward pressing Arctic air will make for an unusual situation on Monday. 
  • While many areas will see sleet and freezing rain overnight, as Monday progresses, snow may actually INCREASE in intensity despite a March sun because temperatures will drop to the TEENS, believe it or not, across most of PA, northern VA, WV, central and western MD. 

Sleet and Freezing Rain may top 0.20" of an inch in areas where less snow is forecasted on the map, and in places where higher totals are shown, it is possible some locations could go in excess of 12" where temps are lowest and there is a faster changeover to snow from frozen precip. 

IMPACTS: The timing of this storm is extremely crucial to the impacts.  Take these impacts into consideration before making an effort to travel Monday morning if the forecasted conditions develop as expected.
  1. The worst of the storm will occur just before, during, and after the normal morning commute hours. Heavy snowfall (possibly mixing with sleet early on during the rush) will make for very hazardous, slippery driving conditions.
  2. Temperatures will be diving down through this time period as well, freezing anything left on untreated roads. Winds during the main portion of the storm on Monday are expected to be out of the north behind the front at around 10-20 mph.
  3. In addition to the snowfall being heavy, it is expected to be a dry, fluffy snow, which will blow around fairly easily, causing visibility issues on the roadways at times. All in all, the worst impacts of the storm will occur from around rush hour until near the end of the workday.

BUST SCENARIOS – March snowstorms are not kind to weather forecasters as we all learned last year. So what could go wrong with this one? To start, we don’t think a repeat of March 6th, 2013 is likely. On that day, temperatures were just around freezing all the way up to Canada – thus no feed of cold air.

This time, we have record challenging cold in place and temperatures well below zero in southern Canada. 
A) ARCTIC PLOW! (25% Chance) – If arctic air just plows right through, the heavier snow could be shifted south of our region. Yes, south. We still get the cold, but not enough moisture to get to the 6-12” of snow we expect.  
B) OVERPERFORMING? (20% Chance) – If the cold comes in on track and more moisture floods in, we could have something similar to February 12-13, where 6-12” ends up quite a bit more. With snow to liquid ratios greater than 10:1, much of the region could get double digit snow totals with up to 16” possible in some areas. We will be watching all three of these potentials closely! 
C) MARCH STRIKES AGAIN... (10% Chance)– If the cold front stalls too far north, we could have sleet and rain mixing until sunrise, then the snow has trouble sticking after sunrise. This would give us some slushy slop that freezing quickly Monday afternoon.

RECORD COLD TO FOLLOW? – Monday night will be brutally cold. Temperatures could fall to the single digits for much of the region with some areas potentially falling below 0°F for those right along the Mason-Dixon Line. We’ll focus more on this after the storm, but this would be a rare beast indeed for the month of March!

Forecasters and Advisors who tirelessly contributed to this report include:
  • Mike Natoli, UM College Park
  • Andrew Barney, Penn State
  • Jason Mitchell, College of Southern Maryland
  • Connor Meehan, Howard County Community College
  • Joey Krastel, Community College of Baltimore County
  • Julian Baron, Gilman School - Baltimore City
  • Dr. Pete W., Research Meteorologist
  • Advisors Rich Foot and Brad Lear

239 comments:

1 – 200 of 239   Newer›   Newest»
Unknown said...

I'm actually very concerned about what the NAM is outputting. The GFS and EURO will tell all tonight.

Unknown said...
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Unknown said...

Andy mentioned something earlier how we should all be pleased with storm. At this rate, I won't be please; I'll be in school.

kristia35 said...

Huge shift south = to about 100 miles. I would not discount the nam it performed well inside of 48 hours last time.

Amy said...

Everyone take a deep breath, possibly a deep drink if you're of age, and watch the storm develop. You can read models all you want but Andys discussion about models and their usefulness was spot on in the previous thread. Go back and read it if you haven't.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Storm ideas stand firm. You can not make a forecast from anyone model run, especially the NAM. 2010 NAM gave me 2 inches of snow within 48 hours of a BLIZZARD, then 60 within 24. Had right around 30. Models are not forecasts, but forecast tools. There has been NO shift south. NAM is great with summer thunderstorms and warm dynamic systems in the short range. All the earlier variances are model NOISE. Any discernible shift will be identified AFTER all guidance and ensembles are in, and after nowcast comparison of modeled features versus observed placement of said features is compared.

Unknown said...

I'm kind of ashamed of my last few comments...In the time span of an hour, the RGEM has shifted north and the GFS has too...Andy's right when he says that you can't live and die off model runs. But for me, a person who has not studied meteorology enough to pick up on atmospherical patterns and make an actual forecast, them models are all I got. Maybe in college, I'll look study meteorology.

Unknown said...
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Unknown said...

Sorry march storms worry me in Andy I must trust now

kristia35 said...

GFS to the rescue

Westsidehideaway said...

Stacking up the wood and booze here in West Baltimore City.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

DEATH WARRANTS signed for Jeremy and Kyle. LOL! Gentlemen, It still COULD BE 60 and sunny on Monday. This is weather and it changes on a dime. With that said we are not Gypsy (Roma) fortune tellers. We are insane POWDERHOUNDS. This is a SCIENCE, and part of determining a forecast is using numerical guidance, climatology, terrain, orographic lift, surface observations, and converging on a "general idea" of a forecast as it evolves.

I have seen nothing to alter the "GENERAL IDEA" YET.

I am in Springaling mode personally so I am not ROOTING for a ton of snow. Still have close to a foot in my yard of ice! I like a forecast challenge and this one is brutal tough. Nevertheless, the EVIDENCE is there to support the thinking being conveyed here and it is unchanged.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Kristia35 is in the doghouse also. I have not heard a bird report from Julee so maybe the NAM is right?

Westsidehideaway said...

Channel13 is calling for 8+ on their 11 pm news.

Westsidehideaway said...

Not rooting for snow here in West Baltimore. Have an appt. in Catonsville on Monday to get my taxes done. 8 plus will cancel that.

Unknown said...

When will they put up winter storm warnings

Anonymous said...

Andy, flocks of geese were feeding like crazy in the fields in north Baltimore County today.

Does that info help with the forecast? ;-)

Westsidehideaway said...

Jim Parsons and Beck on SNL tonight. Time for a break from snow patrol.

ravensbbr said...

Anon, if you need those geese taken off those fields, hit me up! :)

There were a ton of birds feeding just about everywhere today, they know something's coming...

Westsidehideaway said...

Tony Pann on 11 @ 11 days the storm is pushing south and Bmore will get around 5 inches. Is he predicting the new trend for the storm?

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

1.1 to 1.3 QPF per 0Z Euro almost ALL SNOW. 12-18 inches from DC to Baltimore, to Bel Air, to Loganville, PA. Average Ratio 15:1.

My "General Idea" STILL STANDS. A General 8-12 for Baltimore Metro with 12-16 inches north of the city. Once 12Z comes in, QPF shield will be MORE EXPANSIVE, Likely tick north a little.


Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

WINTER STORM WARNINGS BY LUNCH AREA WIDE.

kristia35 said...

Hey all I said was not to discount the nam. It performed well the last time within this time frame and should not be discounted at this point. Unless it is just having a hard time with it. I'll retreat to my weenie house though! :)

BioPat said...

Storm warning are present all across MD since early this morning. Looks like Andy may be on target, but still at least another 12 hours until this thing gets rolling. Now will the Gov declare a "State of Emergency" so these days won't have to be made up?

Anonymous said...

I'm Hoping Laurel gets at least 9" of snow. ♡ SnOw SnoW SNOW .... Hurry up. ♡ This has been a good WiNteR !!!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Statement as of 3:25 AM EST on March 02, 2014

... Winter Storm Warning in effect from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM
EST Monday...

The National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington has
issued a Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow... sleet... and
freezing rain... which is in effect from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EST
Monday. The Winter Storm Watch is no longer in effect.

* Precipitation type... freezing rain... changing to sleet... and
then heavy snow.

* Accumulations... around one tenth inch ice... then 8 to 12 inches
of snow.

* Timing... freezing rain and sleet will begin this evening with
heavy snow late tonight through Monday.

* Temperatures... dropping from the low 30s this evening to the mid
20s overnight... then low 20s through Monday.

* Winds... north 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* Impacts... very hazardous travel this evening trough Monday...
affecting both the Monday morning and Monday afternoon peak
commute hours. Power outages are possible with the combination
of ice and heavy snow.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

This Winter Storm Warning is for heavy snow... sleet... and
freezing rain and means severe winter weather conditions are
expected. Significant amounts of ice and snow are forecast that
will make travel dangerous and potentially cause power outages.
Only travel in an emergency. If you must travel... keep an extra
flashlight... food... and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency.

Unknown said...

Andy, will there be high ratios with this storm? I heard rumors about it, but nothing concrete.

BioPat said...

Jeremy there is a chart you can download that provides rain/snow ratios. With temps dropping through-out the day I am sure the ratios will increase.

Tina said...

::stumbling in the room, yawning, rubbing eyes::

Jeremy, don't worry... I used to get really anxious over what the models were doing as well... they were all I had too. Now I'm hooked, like a sponge, trying to soak up the finer points. I never will, not like a lot of folks have, but I learn something each time weather is discussed.

::wandering off to get tea out of microwave::

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

EASTERN SHORE
Statement as of 5:24 AM EST on March 02, 2014

... Winter Storm Warning remains in effect from 9 PM this evening
to 4 PM EST Monday...

* locations... marylands Eastern Shore... the northern two thirds of
Delaware as well as southern New Jersey.

* Hazard types... mainly snow with some sleet and freezing rain
possible at the beginning late this evening.

* Accumulations... snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches... along with
around a trace of ice.

* Timing... rain late this afternoon changes to sleet or freezing
rain for a time late this evening before changing to all snow by
3 am Monday. The snow will be moderate to heavy at times Monday
and then end late in the day.

* Winds... north 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* Visibilities... one quarter mile or less at times Monday.

* Temperatures... plunging to near 20 by daybreak Monday.

* Impacts... the snow and sleet will create hazardous driving
conditions. Monday morning's commute will be particularly
difficult.

* Following the storm... near record cold is possible late Monday
night as temperatures drop to between 5 and 10 degrees above zero.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow...
sleet... and ice are expected or occurring. Strong winds are also
possible. This will make travel very hazardous or impossible.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

I still like the GENERAL idea of the forecast that we have talked about for the last couple of days of 8-12 with areas of 12-16 north of Baltimore.

The only change I would make to the General idea is to emphasize the 12-16 pockets through the ENTIRE region. The region being south of rt 30 in York, PA to points southwest and southeast, all the way down to metro DC, including all of AA County

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

NWS BALT WASHINGTON:

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...


-- Changed Discussion --

AS THE SFC FRONT CLEARS OUR SRN BORDER TONIGHT...GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE (NOW OVER THE MID-SOUTH STATES) ENTERS FROM THE WEST AND IT HONESTLY LOOKS TO BE ALL SNOW. HEAVY SNOW AT THAT. THIS SHOULD CREATE A HEAVY SWATH OF SNOW WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. BASED ON 00Z GUIDANCE THIS SWATH WOULD BE FROM PETERSBURG WV TO ANNAPOLIS AND BE AROUND ONE FOOT. THERE HAS BEEN A SOUTH TREND...SO THIS HEAVIEST SWATH MAY END UP FARTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...THERE WAS SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE OF MEETING THE CRITERIA OF 5 INCHES (6 INCHES FOR OUR WRN FIVE COUNTIES) TO ISSUE THE WARNING. AGAIN...A LARGE AREA SHOULD EXCEED THIS MINIMUM CRITERIA GREATLY. OUR SNOW PROBABILITIES SUGGEST UP TO 15 INCHES WHICH IS QUITE RARE FOR MARCH...BUT LOOKING MORE LIKELY! TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A QUICK CUTOFF IN PRECIP. TRIED NOT TO GET CUTE WITH ENDING TIMES...GENEROUS ACCORDING TO 00Z GUIDANCE. COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SO TEMPERATURES OF GENERALLY UPPER TEENS NORTH TO LOW 20S SOUTH CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion -

Amy said...

May high school seniors rejoice at having another day, or two, off. Sadly I have mass email to remind my sophomores, juniors, and their parents, that this would be an excellent opportunity to work on their lab reports. And some practice problems. Bless technology.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

There was a trend south with the colder air and the system in general. While it has trended south the high QPF precip shield will expand slightly north. To the north there will be slightly less QPF but average ratios will be higher so snowfall totals will be relatively uniform from route 30 in York, PA which stands to receive 8 inches, to 20 miles south near the border town of Shrewsbury which should see close to a foot. North of rt 30 to Harrisburg Pa would be a general 6 inches. Areas along the immediate Mason Dixon line from Gettysburg through Shrewsbury to southern Lancaster county are apt to see a general foot but could go as high as 16 inches in banding.

Higher probability of banding and 16 inch totals near the Baltimore, Washington, and AA county region.

Blowing a drifting will be a major concern into Tuesday morning.

Other (less informed) Andy from Southern York County said...

Up here in New freedom, we don't get any more Mason-Dixon, so I'll take the 12-16 with banding. I'm not sure my back will agree with me, but that's a discussion that my back and I will have to have later.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Andy,

I'm expecting a general 12 for New Freedom etc. Banding and ratios will impact final total. 16 is not out of the question, but it won't be widespread even in MD. Heavy bands will be like dots all over the place and if they set up over you then you cash in above the 12 inch threshold. As far as PA area goes I think the widespread 12 inch totals are going to confine themselves to Stwartstown, Shrewsbury, New Freedom, Lineboro (in north Carroll), Jefferson, Gettysburg etc.

BioPat said...

Amy, right there with you. I sent students home with all their review materials in preparation for this week's Intro to Genetics test. The test was planned for Tuesday but by Thursday it became evident adjustments needed to be made. I'm guessing the test will be Thursday which will give me one day to review again and then administer the test. DNA can begin on Friday. You see I am already planning on a Monday/Tuesday closing as you are as well.

Amy said...

BP- their kinetics test is scheduled for Thursday and I'm loathe to postpone more than a day with my impending maternity leave. I have one more unit I want to cover rather than leave it to a sub and I'm feeling the pinch of time.

Unknown said...

are blizzard conditions possible anywhere?

Anonymous said...

Not trying to look past this storm, but isn't there a chance of another event later in the week?

Anonymous said...

Weather.com just changed their forecast to rain tonight and 3-5 inches of snow tomorrow. Did the storm track shift?

Noah said...

Just an amateur here, but no, I do not think the storm has shifted significantly since last night. The latest 12z NAM even brought the higher totals a bit farther north into Central MD. Don't listen to Weather.com.

Unknown said...

The NAM has come a little north, but really, anyone north of Baltimore would not see an impressive storm if that were to verify. But, the RGEM came out right after the NAM, basically, telling the NAM to sit down. It had the storm north and bringing good snows up to Pennsylvania.

Noah said...

Are we looking at the same maps? I don't know if these links will work, but here is what I see on the RGEM:

http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2014030212/neng/rgem_snow_acc_neng_17.png

And here is the NAM:

http://models.weatherbell.com/hires/2014030212/washdc/hires_snow_acc_washdc_20.png

The NAM clearly shows higher totals in almost all regions in here, including 6+ totals in PA where the RGEM does not.

Another Evil HR Director said...

Andy, can you give me an idea of what we'll get in Westminster??

Anonymous said...

Andy: wondering about AA county. Totals still stand 6-12? or lower now?

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1104 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014

MDZ004>007-009>011-VAZ027>031-040-042-501-WVZ050-052-053-055-502-
030015-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0008.140303T0000Z-140303T2300Z/
FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-HAMPSHIRE-BERKELEY-
JEFFERSON-HARDY-EASTERN GRANT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...
GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...
WASHINGTON...LEESBURG...WARRENTON...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN...
MOOREFIELD...PETERSBURG
1104 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 PM EST MONDAY...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO ONE TENTH INCH ICE...THEN 8 TO 12 INCHES
OF SNOW.

* TIMING...RAIN CHANGES TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS EVENING THEN BECOMES HEAVY SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWER 30S THIS EVENING TO THE MID 20S OVERNIGHT...THEN
LOWER 20S THROUGH MONDAY.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* IMPACTS...VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL THIS EVENING TROUGH MONDAY...
AFFECTING BOTH THE MONDAY MORNING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON PEAK
COMMUTE HOURS. POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE COMBINATION
OF ICE AND HEAVY SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS WINTER STORM WARNING IS FOR HEAVY SNOW...SLEET...AND
FREEZING RAIN AND MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE AND SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT
WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.
ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA
FLASHLIGHT... FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN
EMERGENCY.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

NWS WARNING is SPOT ON. There will be isolated areas that receive 12-16 in convective banding.

Noah said...

WHOA the NWS just significantly dropped all of their snowfall totals. Annapolis was forecasted this morning to get 10-14 inches, and the map now reads 6-8. That "spot on" warning may soon read smaller totals.

Link to new map:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/StormTotalSnowRange.png

Anonymous said...

Andy wrong again!!

Anonymous said...

Shocker.

Noah said...

Andy is not necessarily wrong, that is not the point being made. He has been very accurate this winter, and the NWS along with many other weather institutions drop their totals just hours before the event before increasing them back up to Andy's projected numbers.

However, that said, the NWS numbers do seem have a better chance than usual of verifying this time around based on what I have seen on the 00z models. We will see, but certainly no one has been proven right or wrong yet, especially with how crazy the storms this year have been as we saw with the last major event.

Mike in Glen Rock said...

These anonymous posters really need to go! The storm hasn't even really gotten started yet. You don't know if Andy is wrong at this point. If you aren't able to discuss the forecast using the data that Andy evaluates (which I suspect "anonymous" can't) don't criticize his predictions.

Anonymous said...

Go away, trolls!

Unknown said...

Mr Foot please address the idiot problem on the blog if you are in any way able to.

NeedaSnowday said...

Perhaps anonymous would like to offer their valuable scientific input on this pending storm?

No?

Shocker!

Agreed with Mike & Mike ... Sounds like the ESPN show!

Get rid of anonymous option... Must have valid login to post...

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Storms are dynamic living and breathing entities. This storm is no exception to the rule. What makes this more challenging and exciting than most, and what numerical models struggle with, is the intrusion of EXTREME ARCTIC air into tremendous amounts of gulf moisture. Enhanced rates, and mesoscale banding, coupled with high liquid to snow ratios make this another ball game compared to our "normal" difficult forecasts.

There are "bad forecasts" out there and there are great ones, but every storm idea has to be supported by evidence.

When arctic air intrudes into a system like this, thunder snow is possible, and tremendous rates not picked up well by models. Models smooth out precip and consolidate it too much.

ALL MODELS ARE ALWAYS WRONG is a fact of life, as they are NOT FORECASTS but FORECAST TOOLS. When you develop a forecast or forecast idea you use them as guidance understanding their limitations, biases in certain situations etc.

In this storm the best dynamics will be around Baltimore and Washington where I think someone will see over a foot of snow. The models shifted those dynamics slowly south.

Within 10 miles north of the MD/PA border I think 10 inches is a good bet. Where bands set up there will be surprises.

I like the 8-12 idea, with an upside in banding toward the Baltimore/Washington corridor.

If there is some TITANIC shift then we can adjust. Right now sit back and enjoy the storm and a snow day!
The ENTIRE REGION is UNDER A WINTER STORM WARNING for good reason.

Amy said...

I agree, I'd love to see the anonymous option go away. Be willing to put your name with your inane comments.

Andy-As always you do a great job of explaining the science and how dynamic weather is. Thank you for doing it so tirelessly.

Tina said...

Agreed: there should be no "anonymous" user IDs. I know these sniveling insectii are just doing it to get a response, but what they really need to do is get a life.

Generator's ready, food's stored and the bar is stocked, perhaps more fully, than the wood pile!!

(I just wish no one had to try and drive in this tomorrow...).

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Amy,

This is fun! I think we have been pretty solid with handling the evolution so far. Two days ago many "tv forecasts" and even yesterday were mostly rain mix etc. Now we are under winter storm warnings. The ideas we have talked about are coming alive. I have always liked the general 8-12 idea for this with the upside of 12-16. The confluence is stronger than before that is why I think areas that are the most apt to over achieve are around DC and Baltimore not north. Either way it is a double digit snow forecast with extreme cold. This is impressive for March.

If you view this as an 8-12 storm with "AN UPSIDE POTENTIAL" the ground truth should be close to that mark.

Robert said...

Andy,
Elkton, MD here. Strictly watching radar progression, As I watch this storm move west to east I see its core "sliding" southward. You don't feel this will continue? Once it the snow portion overtakes MD will it start to follow an often normal track of sliding back northward up the I-95 corridor? Reading your posts, you still feel here in Elkton we should expect the planned 8-12" still as opposed to the new 4-6"?

Unknown said...

Getting a very light rain here in Cockeysville.

Unknown said...

The radar is definitely looking juicy as the main part of our storm organizes in the Mid-West'ish area. Excuse me if I'm wrong, but there's a big band of precipitation that's north (extending into central Illinois). I'm not sure if that was modeled, but it sure looks like parts of Pennsylvania and north MD could get into some good snow. I'm liking how things are shaping up now. All I'm aiming for is a closure from my private school in Pikesville. This storm is gravy on an already awesome winter for Reisterstown

BioPat said...

Well, I've been to Mass and running errands and come home to all this anonymous stuff. We have always respected each other and the opinions of those who post on this discussion blog. In addition, the insight that Andy provides has been an important part of our discussion. I wish those who choose to remain anonymous would please keep with the spirit of our blog or simply choose not to be a part. As Andy has pointed out repeatedly weather and nature in general is dynamic. We use models to attempt to explain and predict what the probability of certain weather events may be. However, one still has to look out the window and physically collect the data to determine if the prediction can be placed in an acceptable range. The sources we used as tools are often conflicted so one has to rely on experience and trends to try and predict the outcomes of these storms. In my humble opinion, Andy has been a gem for this site and I am most grateful for his work, his scientific explanations, and mostly his humor. Bravo friend, well done and please keep it up. The only problem I seem to have is my family is a bit jealous of the time I spend talking with and about you all. So, whatever may come tonight, tomorrow and the rest of the week - enjoy!!

Anonymous said...

Looking like a bust to me NW of Baltimore. Radar shows mostly rain now.

Anonymous said...

Exactly, if I want to post my opinion, it should be respected. And my opinion is that teachers who hope for snow days probably shouldn't be teachers. Find another occupation.

Westsidehideaway said...

Raining here in West Baltimore at 3:30pm. Justin Berk is saying 10-14 inches for central MD.

Wisconsin Native said...

Anonymous is just a troll. He's going to say things that are going to get responses. One is that teachers are too lazy to teach so they want snow days. If you are a teacher or have respect for the job you might think it's necessary to respond. The other is that Andy sucks comment he made. In case anyone was confused nobody was saying the precipitation at 3:30 PM would be snow. Thank you to the contributors of this site as you actually explain the weather and all of the scenarios. Weather.com and Accuweather both give blanket statements but don't account for the boom or bust scenarios.

mayawild said...

Well stated Wisconsin native.
Difficult as it is, the best policy is probably to ignore the ignorant comments.
Be safe everyone and I hope we get the snow we are looking for with the electricity on! (^_-)

Julee said...

My opinion is if you are bitter about teachers getting snow days off, find another occupation. Be a teacher.
But you have to take everything else that goes with it.

Chris W in MD said...

I for one appreciate the opinions of Andy, and others on this site.

Ignore the trolls, they go away when no one seems to care.

Westsidehideaway said...

Yes. Please hope for little or no ice. During snowmageddon we lost power in West Baltimore for two days. Could not get out of the neighborhood. No heat or hot water. Ugh.

Tim from Southern Carroll County said...

I've been biting my tongue for most of the day looking at most of these negative posts just shaking my head. I believe that Mr. Foot created this site to share his and his students love for weather analysis AND to share their findings with us. Some generous followers even lend their insight based on their experience because they enjoy sharing what they have learned with others who have shown the desire to learn from them. Everyone who has followed this and other sites over the past few years has learned a lot about how difficult it is to predict the weather. I have an appreciation for the process and understand that you will never know what will really happen until it actually occurs. No one model will ever be the golden source. In the same breath, no one forecaster is ever 100% correct. Every individual should read through all possible sources and make an educated decision based on all sources available. At the same time, throwing negativity back at someone who took time out of their day to help other is frustrating to see, but the reality of the social media society we live in where entitled, narcissistic individuals spew their negativity behind an anonymous posting....is only expected.

Thanks to Mr. Foot and those who make this an enjoyable place to visit and learn. Those of us who really care appreciate your efforts and look forward to continuing to learn from you.

Westsidehideaway said...

Nicely Said Tim. Thanks!

Butch Dynomite said...

I am a teacher. Probably best to ignore inflanatory comments.
My woodpile is really depleted ...burning old rotten logs from bottom of the pile.I have learned a lot enjoyed commentary this winter.looking out at heavy grey skies in parkville.

Westsidehideaway said...

Rain is picking up here.

Morpheus, Bowie MD said...

Man raises fists to the sky and yells TROLLS!

Tina said...

::Tina blows kisses at Morph::

Cathy in BelAir said...

What is sad to me, is that for so many years, this has been such a great to come (within FF) to get not only the latest weather information, but also the how's and why's and when's and possibly's with no judgement or finger pointing! Its been like a mini meteorology class foe me, and I have learned a lot and enjoyed every minute! Word has now gotten out how good Andy and all the regulars are and it seems we have some smart %#* rude people among us now, who can do nothing but complain and give negative comments. I think they are just jealous because they haven't got a clue what is going on and they need to put others down to make them feel good. We need to stop giving their remarks credence by talking about them, and they will soon fall into oblivion.
In Andy we trust......always have and always will!

Adam said...

I'm a teacher too. I work hard and enjoy my job - and snow days are glorious.

These anon posts are probably just some kids sitting around trying to get our goat. As someone said above, they will go away if you ignore them.

Even only a couple of months ago, anon comments were not allowed - had to sign in w/ a google plus or FB or something. Maybe we should go back to that.

Skip the anons and just read the people who are here for good snow vibes.

Thanks to all for your hard work keeping up with the storm; I have enjoyed following the evolution of it through your comments!

Morpheus, Bowie MD said...

Morpheus is married so he turns his cheek toward Tina and excepts said kisses - Just do not let the t-r-o-l-s see!

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
BioPat said...

You all are tooooo much, love you all! Now, on to the business of snow prep!
A very cold rain in Catonsville at present. The planes leaving and arriving at BWI seem so low because of cloud cover they sound like they could be landing down the street. That's usually a sign of a major event. Now, if I hear the trains on the track from CSX I know we'll see major snow.

Anonymous said...

I have been following this site since the huge storms in 2010. While I agree random posts are annoying I must agree what is equally as annoying is listening to you teachers. First, my wife is a teacher so don't start with the 'you have no idea what we do' nonsense. There was a post a little while ago about having to work a full week for 7 weeks in a row. Like OMG as the kids would say. That comment is so ridiculous, condescending and ignorant it makes me sick. You teachers want the best of both worlds....you get ridiculous time off then complain about pay (but if you break down your hourly wage it's WAY above average), but when someone says something about your time off your defense is anyone can be a teacher. Well...if anyone can and chooses to be, don't complain about your pay. Your job, and supposedly the reason you chose this profession, is to guide our kids. Stop being so lazy and selfish and actually show some remorse for not being able to do your job and what so many of you preach is your life's calling. Truth is....if you cared ABOUT THE STUDENTS, you would be sad about having days off.

Liz said...

Wow, I thought this was a weather discussion board...

Unknown said...

Andy any early indications about the storm and it's track it looks real juicy down south and west.

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

I'm sorry for my comments here folks, I'm a hopeless drunk...

Tina said...

Light rain now in lower DE. Chilly, too. I told my husband a little while ago, I'm so glad the snow's gonna fall during the day and not at night. I love watching it. And going outside and the QUIET!!

Weeeee!!!!

::gooses Morph::

::tee hee::

Noah said...

I know you can't in any way base your expectations on a single model run, but after 24 hours of seemingly constant decreases in model snow totals, I wanted to share!

The lastest 18z GFS model shows area-wide increases in snow totals!

Here is the old 12z GFS:
http://models.weatherbell.com/gfs/2014030212/east/gfs_6hr_snow_acc_east_12.png

Here is the new 18Z GFS:
http://models.weatherbell.com/gfs/2014030218/east/gfs_6hr_snow_acc_east_9.png

Also, can someone tell me if you can actually use these links, and if you like seeing them at all?

Enjoy the snow tomorrow!!!

Anonymous said...

time for nowcasting. Models don't mean anything anymore. Look at the radar.

Detritus Effluvium said...

Battening down the hatches here on the Eastern Shore side of the Upper Elk. Light Rain, 38.5 degrees F and dead calm on the river.

Noah said...

Well I appreciate your honesty Anonymous!

mayawild said...

I just hope it starts snowing early enough for me to go for a stroll. Gotta love walking as the blanket of quiet white falls.
Sweet.
I copied the links and was able to get there so thanks for posting. And to all who keep this post enjoyably focused on the weather! Well done. (^_-)

MichaelFellsPoint said...

Noah:

Your efforts are very much appreciated. However, the links do not work for those of us who do not have an account with Weatherbell - all we get is an "access forbidden" page at Weatherbell's website.

Thanks again,
/s/ Michael

Unknown said...

I'm awaiting an update from Andy, a man who I would like to thank for returning back to this little board time and time again despite the fact we're not the most learned on meteorology. So, anything to note about the radar?

mayawild said...

Correction. I thought I copied the link and it worked, but I was mistaken. I think I clicked on something else from my history. Yes 'access denied' comes up without an account.

Julee said...

BioP ... I can hear the train (a mile away) on snowy (and foggy) days too! Eerie, mournful sound, isn't it?

Anonymous said...

I heard Maryland isn't getting any snow. That is the latest from respected meteorologists.

BioPat said...

Yes it is Julee. I can't believe how many planes are going in and out of BWI! I guess it's always that way we just don't normally hear that low rumble. I think we need a Robert Frost poem here.

NeedaSnowday said...

BP howabout a Dr Seuss poem in honor of his birthday today?:)

FYI ....PG County closed tomorrow

Tina said...

BioP, I used to live under a flight path in Ellicott City and I remember the pattern before major weather DID seem to get busier. I think the airlines are trying to get as many flights in AND out as they can, so their planes aren't stuck at BWI for several days.

Tina said...

The feds should call it tonight as well. Or they'll have a repeat of all the repeats they've had when they didn't learn their lesson about lots of snow and cold in a short amount of time.

Anonymous said...

uhhhh. pretty sure planes won't be stuck for several days. This is trending to a non-event.

Amy said...

First school system has called it. AACO just called me to say no school.

NeedaSnowday said...

AA County now closed.... snowball effect

Noah said...

Snowball effect, what a pun! I LUV IT.

Morpheus, Bowie MD said...

Weird coincidence Julie - as I read your post a train whistle sounded on a passing train that definitely sounds louder than normal. Calm before the storm eh?

Westsidehideaway said...

Quiet here in West Bmore. Big mass of snow in Ohio heading this way.

Zac said...

I believe, sound travels farther under low pressure and low clouds, which is why you'll hear trains and air traffic more-so than under a "high sky".
Explain to me how this can already be declared a "non-event" when it hasn't begun yet?

Jason said...

New Freedom, PA, still pretty quiet. Off and on rain since noon, not cold enough for frozen.

Unknown said...

I am confused. Are we not getting what the thought we would? In Abingdon, MD. Are we still looking at 12" plus? Thank you all for your dedication and hard work.

Kevin said...

Selena... Your guess is as good as everyone else. My guess is nothing much.

Detritus Effluvium said...

WBAL AM 1090 just gave a weather report and it sounded like they were waffling. Newscaster said the heavier snow would be south of Baltimore.

Butch Dynomite said...

Not going to bed until I see flakes!

Liz said...

BCPS closed!

Amy said...

So is HoCo

NeedaSnowday said...

How hilarious is hcpss!? This was tweeted out ....OK, #hocostudents, you are off tomorrow. What will you do with all your time tonight now that you don't have to tweet us about closing?

Amy said...

They could do the homework I emailed them a couple of hours ago :-) I can't lose any more instruction time.

Kevin said...

Oh... Andy where are you???? Is it going to snow or what???

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Amy said...

Folks, temps won't crash until late tonight. Patience. PV is moving South towards us. Once in place we will switch over.

Westsidehideaway said...

Raining harder in West Baltimore and 37 degrees. Trying not to peek outside too much. Have to remember it will take a while to freeze up.

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
751 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014

PAZ036-064>066-031100-
/O.CAN.KCTP.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-140303T2100Z/
/O.EXB.KCTP.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-140303T1500Z/
FRANKLIN-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHAMBERSBURG...GETTYSBURG...YORK...
LANCASTER
751 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

* LOCATIONS...THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND TAPER
OFF BY 9 OR 10 AM.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW COVERED
ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. THIS WILL AFFECT THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.
USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION...GO
TO WEATHER.GOV/CTP OR STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE
COLLEGE BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO CTP.STORMREPORTS@NOAA.GOV...
POSTING TO THE NWS STATE COLLEGE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
@NWSSTATECOLLEGE WITH THE HASHTAG #CTPWX.

Westsidehideaway said...

I am going to check other sources and look for changes in the MD forecast.

Kevin said...

Andy.. That's a big difference from your forecast. But thanks for trying. You've been wrong big time last 2 times. Saturday the 15th you goofed that too.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

NWS in State College going with extreme suppression on the MD border. Their call is now 2-4 above the line.

I think this is is way underdone, but time will tell!

I like the initial calls, and agree with the forecast that Foot's Forecast has put out. This storm is a battle of energy vs Arctic air.

NWS in PA says arctic air wins. I think the banding will set up as anticipated and do like the 8-12 forecast for most of MD with higher isolated totals.

Suppression is a factor further north in my opinion but not to the extent that State College has presented near the MD border. I think 6 inches gets up to rt 30, and up to 10 on the line.

I still think New Freedom and areas on the line are apt to see double digit totals.

Either way the forecast idea for central MD is solid and this will be a significant storm.

So MANY FORECASTS out there, but I base my call on a careful review of all guidance, and observations.

Will this UNDER PERFORM, OVER PERFORM, VERIFY?

TIME WILL TELL!

Kathi said...

As an old retired lady who has always been fascinated by the weather, I truly appreciate all the hard work and dedication from those that share their knowledge with us. I have been coming here since Snowmageddon because I really enjoy the camaraderie between everyone and the sense of friendship here. With these last couple of winters without a lot of snow, I have really missed these conversations. This is the first place I come to when I get up in the morning and the last place before I go to bed. So thank you Andy and all the regulars that have been posting here and taking the time to share information about how weather works and why it is so hard to predict sometimes. I will really miss everyone once spring comes and the forum dies down. So bring on the snow!

Westsidehideaway said...

Thanks Andy. Based on the current Radar I can see why the Susquehenna Valley forecast was changed. Curious if the will he the same for Philly.

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

wheres the bust? I don't see it.

Unknown said...

radar sure looks impressive

Anonymous said...

storm is south. lucky if northern counties get 2". Balt and south lucky to get 6". bust. NWS is in the process of changing the warnings.

Anonymous said...

I guess its a bit of a bust for mason dixon and north, but for south of Bmore things look snowy

Bill in Southern AA County said...

I've been checking out FF since I moved to MD from MA 5 years ago and I am a bit of a very amateur meteorologist now living in far southern AA county, 2 miles north of Calvert County and a half mile from the bay. Andy and the folks at FF do as good of a job as anyone including the talking heads on local and national TV at predicting the unpredictable. For anyone to bash their predictions while sitting on the sidelines is sophomoric and uncalled for. They may have missed the little clipper on the 15th, but they nailed the major storm on before Valentine's Day and they had it right 3 or 4 days before anyone else caught on. This storm is complex as there are 2 very strong forces at work, the PV vs all the moisture in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Historically, the moisture wins, but this PV is amazing especially for March where parts of Texas are 40 to 60 degrees colder than they were this time yesterday. PA's loss will be southern MD's gain as the temp has dropped from our high of 50 at noon to our present 36.1 according to my trusty AcuRite 5 in 1. So, by my book and my backyard, Andy and the gang at FF are 2 out of their last 3, which in weather terms is ahead of the curve...way ahead!

Unknown said...

Kevin said...
Andy.. That's a big difference from your forecast. But thanks for trying. You've been wrong big time last 2 times. Saturday the 15th you goofed that too.

What are you talking about? Andy has been forecasting for Mainly the very southern area of Pa and Maryland. Did you read where that bulletin was for? Well north of there!

HOW CAN ANYBODY BE WRONG WHEN THE STORM HAS NOT EVEN STARTED?

Hopefully your just as critical on yourself then soon you will be near perfect. LOL!

Unknown said...

I am done with this thread. It has been jacked by a minority of morons. When I came aboard in 2010 it was all intelligent and weather oriented.

Thanks Andy, Bio, Needa, Ravensbbr, amy, Tina, Jeremy, kyle Ect...You are the best.

Anonymous said...

Yeah there's a lot of e-thugs running around in this thread. Pretty tough behind your keyboards and fake screen names.

Anonymous said...

BUST

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

"Yeah there's a lot of e-thugs running around in this thread. Pretty tough behind your keyboards and fake screen names."

Says the person using an anonymous tag...

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Kevin,

LOL! This is not a school math test. No right or wrong here! It is a forecast analysis period. Forecasts change frequently as the atmosphere changes. What we try to do is explain to you how it is evolving and what the likely impact will be, based on the empirical evidence. The NWS, ECMF, GFS, ETC., NASA, etc, billions of dollars of sophisticated data analysis do a PHENOMENAL JOB, but not a PERFECT JOB. It is the difference between licking your finger and looking in the sky versus having a REASONABLE EXPECTATION of what will happen.

NEW DATA streams in all the time, and changes. If you follow the evidence you will have the general idea correct 90% plus of the time. Our track record is top notch.

When many said this would be rain and a none event for MD, the DATA said otherwise. Schools closing in Baltimore area already, winter storm warnings, etc have verified the basic concept that this will be a high impact storm for most of this region.

Specific questions still loom, but I still like the general idea.

If you want a perfect answer ALL of the time, then just turn on the local news and take the forecast verbatim from here on out. Their track record and analysis should satisfy!

I suspect that you are here because you have not been satisfied with broadcast media and want more answers. This site will give those to you.

I do not run a weather blog, have no accountability to anyone, but am happy to share ideas with other weather enthusiasts and powder hounds. If you believe they are sub par then please do not read or comment.



PowderHound said...

Stop being so harsh to Andy about his forecasts! He's not paid for what he does, he's doing us all a favor by spending his time giving us his personal forecasts. And, btw, his forecasts are usually spot-on locally. He's not obligated to forecast anything.Give him a break

Anonymous said...

Andy,

You are a gentleman and a true scholar.

Thank you for keeping things positive!

Tina said...

From the quick searching I've done, isn't it just one model that's made so many folks yank the high accumulation estimates further south (b/c it yanked the higher totals further south)? One model?? When the others haven't shifted like that? Maybe I'm missing something, but it seems very 11th hour to be scrambling like a lot of folks are doing over one model.

Mike, please don't leave... Mr. Foot and the gang'll get the yahoos dealt with, but it'll not happen overnight. For a few reasons!!!

:)

Unknown said...

So where is the actual upper level energy tracking?

Loosend said...

You input is very appreciated Andy and I have learned alot.

Loosend said...

Your input......

Unknown said...

Thanks Andy screw them.

Unknown said...

Thank you Andy!

BioPat said...

Andy, a gentleman and a scholar. As always thanks for your enlightened comments.

Unknown said...

Thank you foots get that crap out of here!!!!

Morpheus said...

Don't feed the trolls!

And good news everyone - Anom. post are now disabled while in storm mode, which is when all the little trollers seem to hit the blog.

Butch Dynomite said...

Putting the foot down!!

Unknown said...

Anonymous comments are not permitted while our team is in storm mode. All participants are expected to set the right example in civil discussion, or be removed from the group. Thanks for your support. - Foot's Forecast Team.

*********Amen***********

Bill from Southern AA County said...

As a newbie to the ranks, I agree with the accolades and the policy and hope it encompasses 100% all the time and not just storm mode!

Westsidehideaway said...

Things are still quiet here in West Bmore. No rain now and still 37 degrees. Watching the radar and the big mass of freezing moisture now crossing into Maryland.

Morpheus said...

Ditto Andy and all those who share their weather insights.

Tina said...

Yay Foot et al!!!

Mr. Foot said...

Thanks all for reaching out and making the Advisors aware of the posting issue. Those who cannot participate in our civil society enterprise are invited to leave, or will be removed if unable to represent themselves appropriately as adults-- irrespective of the First Amendment or any other of the remaining 26. (Mr. Foot and the Advisors)

Unknown said...

Andy is looking at models at this point mean anything JB says the nam came back north a bit. Also watch now everyone is gonna change there forecast similar back to yours foots and jbs forecast lol

Tina said...

::Tina blows kisses to Mr. Foot::

Anonymous said...

so glad the anonymous riff raff feature is gone! Must be beat up on weather folk today. I was over there defending JB against someone as well. What is it with this storm bringing out negativity?! Andy thank you for sharing with us your insights I find them valuable after all these (3.5) years.

Julie
SMITTYWA

Cathy in BelAir said...

Thanks Mr. Foot, for making these changes. Andy, you're the best!

NeedaSnowday said...

Rich, Thanks for responding to our emails and requests to disable the anonymous option to comment here! I couldn't take the inflammatory comments any longer!

Thanks Andy! You are a class act!



Andy, Southern York County Pa said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

This is the best storm of the last few years to track! The fact that we are in March, tracking an arctic airmass that will likely deliver BELOW ZERO temps in our region Monday night, along with southern stream moisture plowing into the WALL is remarkable.

I have never come across anything like this this time of year. Normally March snow is more like mud instead of powder sugar. The fact that ratios could hit 20:1 is remarkable.

I like my forecast idea and am sticking with it for MD! BIG QUESTION is now the nature and extent of the confluence and how much does it suppress the precip near the Mason Dixon line.

Baltimore and DC are going to be hammered! Areas north are battling the confluence.

Short term models such as the HRR are pushing WARNING criteria snow plus over the Mason Dixon Line.

This is the wrench in the socket that is just unresolved, and I have no precedence for this set-up.

I will sit back and watch the evolution, but I see no reason to change my ideas for most of our area, but they might FAIL for SOUTHERN PA and NORTHERN COUNTIES along the border if the brickwall of confluence wins. I still think south of Rt 30 will achieve PA warning snows of 6 plus inches, despite the NWS downgrade in PA.

James said...

Glad to see some editing to the thread. Good grief... Thanks to all the forecasters and to a pleasant community of folks. Here comes round two! Enjoy!

Tina said...

Remiss!!!!

::Tina blows kisses to Andy::

James said...

And by the way, I hope Towson gets hammered. I do enjoy a good storm! Be safe out there, everyone. Cheers!

Kathi said...

Thanks Mr. Foot! And I agree completely, Andy you are a CLASS ACT!

Loosend said...

There seems to be a spin in the storm left of where the actual low is located. Does anyone else see this?

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Guys this is fun and it should be. Thanks for the vote of confidence! People are too intense about the weather and want a specific number that will fall on their lawn all the time. We all know it just does not work like that.

If I could do that I would be famous and wealthy! We all share information and ideas, and most of the time we get it right. The MODELS are having a hard time with the confluence, so we are having a hard time pinning down who in a 25 mile area north of Baltimore will be severely impacted or lightly impacted by a major storm. 8-12 is a lock in Baltimore metro based on all reliable guidance. It is the Hinterlands and points north of the Herford Zone and Bel Air over to north Carroll that are a big question concerning cutoff. Let's see how it plays out for those areas. NWS STATE COLLEGE with 2-4 for the PA side of the MASON DIXON, me with WARNING criteria up to rt 30, and 8 plus near the border. TIME WILL TELL.

Carrie said...

I love coming here to read comments, although I don't usually post. Yes, I'm a lurker. :) I appreciate the troll-hunting and the comments of all our regulars, esp. Andy. You all rock!

I'm wondering if some of the hostility about this storm seen here, and in other forums, is perhaps due to winter-exhaustion that many are feeling. I'm a snow-lover too, and even I feel a little fatigued by this long, cold winter. But, if people can't be polite, they should just be quiet.

Can't wait to see what we wake up to tomorrow - it's a fascinating storm!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
NeedaSnowday said...

Just looked at that map too... Plus total snowfall map....finally, we aren't shielded by the snow dome!


http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014030300&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=021

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Most of our region will do VERY well. How well the fringes do will come down to a matter of miles between the precip and confluence. That makes this storm pretty exciting!

Unknown said...

Just a question: What is the difference between snow depth and total snow accumulation on model runs?

Westsidehideaway said...

Rain with a flake or two mixed in here in West Baltimore. 36 Degrees. I am switching back and forth between the Oscars show on TV and the weather show outside.

Westsidehideaway said...

Looks like more frozen stuff coming down out there. City plow just came through the neighborhood. Let the fun begin!!

Anonymous said...

With apologies to Dr. Suess, whose birthday I honor with this little submission and hope it passes the civility test. 0:-D

Every Hound down in Foot’s-Ville loved powder a lot.

The Mice who lived just out of Foot’s-Ville did not.

The Mice HATED powder, the whole powder season. Now please don’t ask why. No one quite knows the reason.

It could be their heads weren’t screwed on just right; it could be, perhaps, their snow boots were too tight.

But I think that the most likely reason of all may have been that their brains were two sizes too small.

The Mice wanted forecasts without any glitches, and just failed to grasp that some storms do have hitches (bet you were looking for another rhyme here and I did consider it :-D )

Some storms perform poorly: they do what they will. And a Hound will get joy from discussing them still.

But whatever the reason, the boots or their brains, the Mice lurked here this stormy eve, casting their blames, sneering out from behind their anonymice monikers, driving the Foot’s-Ville inhabitants bonkers.

Typing out from behind their anonymous screens, they attempted to taint all the PowderHounds dreams…

…of snow storms and snow days and icicles hanging. They all worked their keyboards, relentlessly banging, their discontent showing, and whining and whining “it’s not even snowing!!!”

“Pooh, pooh to the Hounds!” they were snarkily humming. “They’re finding out now that no snowstorm is coming!”

“And they’re making false forecasts,” they snarled with a sneer. “That snowstorm’s a bust: it’s not coming round here.”

They hated the discourse, disparaged the season; they hated on Andy, without any reason.

But leave it to Foot, for whom Foot’s-Ville is named. He banished the Mice from the storm chasing game.

And now all the Hounds can return to the leisure of perusing the comments in Foot’s-Ville with pleasure.

Happy Birthday, Dr. Seuss!

Cathy in BelAir said...

Notsofreestate,

Love it! You have a real gift....good job! lol

Matt Emerson said...

Lame.

Kathi said...

Notsofreestate, that was awesome!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Many offices and schools have taken the prudent route and are shut down in MD, more closings coming overnight.

I am thrilled to be part of this site, and you guys who love winter as much as I do are a pleasure!

Mr. Foot and gang do this for the love of the weather, the challenge of the forecast, and the community we all share.

We always try to communicate the RIGHT idea and as of now, despite model flip flops which we have addressed, trolling, etc.
I still like the WARNING criteria plus snows for the southern tier of PA below rt 30. This has been a tough forecast but I feel our general forecast numbers will verify.

I think the confluence will not be as strong as modeled, precip will be more expansive, banding more pronounced on the NW side of the system, and ratios very high.

Powder hounds enjoy the snow day!

Bill from Southern AA County said...

Down to 35.4F here with little or no wind and a dropping pressure of 29.85 and exactly a quarter of an inch of cold rain so far. It should be snowing to beat the band when I wake up...

Butch Dynomite said...

Still awake ....waiting for a flake....I'm no freestate

Unknown said...

Temp 39
Freezing precipitation
Cockeysville

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Now steady snow, dusting on paved surfaces, 30.8 degrees.

Julee said...

Eighth-of-an-inch of sleet in Pikesville falling at a steady pace.

Morpheus said...

35.6 degrees and rain

Unknown said...

Cockeysville
Snow

Detritus Effluvium said...

Chesapeake City

Snow
32 degrees F
Winds calm

Westsidehideaway said...

Snowing at a good clip here in West Bmore. One plus inches and 28 degrees. Plow has been through once already.

Westsidehideaway said...

It seems that we are behind where we should be from a snow total standpoint. But there is a whole lot of moisture still to come from what the radar is showing.

Westsidehideaway said...

6:30am and West Baltimore is getting pounded.

Freedom fan said...

Not much snow in New Freedom.

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