Sunday, March 9, 2014

So sink or swim...I'm diving in

"So sink or swim...I'm diving in."
- Lyrics from Dive by Stephen Curtis Chapman

3:45 AM EDT 3/12 - If you're ready to take the leap of faith and full throttle it into March, better get ready to Dive in. Today, we're all going to be caught in the rush of the mighty atmospheric rivers above. The chart below shows forecasted temperatures for Thursday. Yes, the red is NOT a warm number this time.


The northern and southern jet streams are gaming to phase later in the week, merging copious Gulf moisture with significant upper level energy to the north. The result will be as one of our meteorologist-advisors put it, a "roller coaster into March" with temperatures wildly swinging 50 degrees in less than 12 hours TONIGHT. The northern Mid-Atlantic from northwest Pennsylvania to New York and New England are likely to be POWDERHOUND CENTRAL for up to 2 feet of heavy wet snow is possible in those regions. 

For regions to the south of this expected snowblast, Chapman's opening lines will best suit your weather later this week, for "the long awaited rains (will fall) hard upon the thirsty ground" and may even bring a touch of "white in the winter night" before the final stanza is sung. 

WESTERN NEW YORK THE BULLSEYE ? At least earlier fears of a March 1958 back breaker are not coming to fruition for the Mid-Atlantic, but this will be small comfort for New Yorkers more accustomed to dry than wet snow. If you're in the region expecting snow impact, we invite you to check in with Forecaster Ronelle of our Western New York State zone for local reports as the storm approaches by midweek! 

(Forecaster Foot and the Winter Stormcast Team)


33 comments:

ravensbbr said...

Great song choice, good man, story of his daughter is both tragic and amazing how it didn't wreck his family.

notsofreestate said...

I agree with you ravensbbr. Every parent shudders at the thought of a tragedy like the one his family suffered. It is so difficult to live a life of faith under such challenging circumstances, especially in full view of the public.

Every time I hear his song "Cinderella", I cry.

And now, back to the weather....

ravensbbr said...

I went to school in western NY...it is interesting to see their methods of dealing with high-moisture content snow in close to above freezing temps...mainly consists of frantically dumping more and more sand everywhere. ;) It works...mostly...

NeedaSnowday said...

Luck of the Irish potential?

ravensbbr said...

I see it Need, looks like a 3 day event at this point...not sure as to severity...

Unknown said...

Chapmans CD "Speechless" is awesome. PTL!

NeedaSnowday said...

SCC...love him! God is God is my favorite!

BioPat said...

Waiting to hear from Any regarding Monday storm. JB has posted GFS and Canadian model info, Canadian may be promising for snow so bears some watching as we move into mid-week.

BioPat said...

Looks like a rough ride today for spring sports.

Amy said...

Storm seems a bit tardy in showing up. When it gets rocking and rolling it should be interesting.

Watching and waiting for Monday. ...

NeedaSnowday said...

Wow.....it is beyond windy!!

ravensbbr said...

Crazy winds here in NE Carroll...they said our airport hit a 52mph wind gust last night..

Tina said...

I'm house/dog sitting for my sister's family (nephew unexpectedly landed in Johns Hopkins 2 days ago (big shout out to them... CC Gen ER, not so much))... the wind during last night was some of the worst I've ever heard. Very glad my spare room is in the basement! Which sounds like a bad movie or something: "The Aunt In The Basement."

Butch Dynomite said...

I think my trash can lid must be somewhere out in the Atlantic.

Unknown said...

The recent canadien gem model is toasting us with a long duration winter storm next week.

NeedaSnowday said...

Hmmmmm... Getting an accumulating snow mid March seems as possible as Ravens signing Steve Smith..... giddy over both opportunities... :-}

ravensbbr said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
ravensbbr said...

Tina, if you meant Carroll's ER...yeah, it's pretty bad. Stabilize and transport to higher level of care, that's their motto :-/ I hope your nephew is doing better.

Need, does Steve Smith come with a walker? What is he, about 90?
:-P

NeedaSnowday said...

Ouch! 34 years old... He actually surpassed Torrey Smith's numbers from last year...we need a tough minded vet WR... Reminds me of Derrick Mason!!

Now bring on the snow forecast!!

NeedaSnowday said...

BBR check out this quote: Now on WFNZ, Steve Smith on possibly playing vs Panthers: “Put your goggles on cause there’s going to be blood and guts everywhere.”

BioPat said...

I'm currently hearing chatter about widespread 6"+ Sunday into Monday, I hope it's green snow!

ravensbbr said...

GFS agrees with you Pat, at least at this juncture.

NeedaSnowday said...

Most models seem to be in agreement for anywhere from 3-7inches.... Crazy!

Unknown said...

The potential for a 3/17 (St. Patrick's Day) snowstorm that I mentioned on Sunday now seems to be coming into fruition! Based on the current consensus in model data I agree with NeedaSnowday for around 4-8 inches of snow, with maybe a bit of sleet mixed in early on as rain Sunday afternoon changes to snow overnight! Crazy for only 4 days before the calender start of spring!

BioPat said...

It has just been that kind of winter! I am a powderhound and can't wait to follow the next storm, so this year has been a great one! I know many are weary of snow but this does not happen that often in MD and I will bet it will be several years before we see a winter like this again. So enjoy it while we can!

Unknown said...

One more storm and a day off school then spring warmth and baseball lets go

NeedaSnowday said...

I am with you BP!

Hmmm, where is Andy?

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Been busier than a hotel maid after a Charlie Sheen extended stay. Will do a quick synopsis.

Snow probabilities for Monday are showing up on the models and models have converged on the general idea of snow for the Baltimore Metro area.

This forecast has many moving parts and is fairly complex at this lead time.

A) Upper level low comes through and delivers a 5-10 inch snow Middle Atlantic special.

B) Energy consolidates in the southwest, forms a more organized system and delivers a historic Miller A coastal storm that impacts up through NYC. A general 10-20 inch storm.

C) Strength and placement of the Polar Vortex (PV) is not being handled well by the models at this lead and the system is more sheared out delivering a low impact light snow that struggles to accumulate. This scenario almost happened last week when the confluence crushed the modeled 10-18 inches, and left us with 4-7.

All options are on the table right now. March is very tricky to forecast especially this late in the month. Current timing seems to favor most qpf falling Sunday night into Monday which would aid in a larger impact event if scenario A pans out.

We will know better Friday night as the energy the models need to focus upon will be on land from the Pacific.

Regardless March will continue to be stormy and below normal. Winter is far from over!




notsofreestate said...

It's nice to have a real winter in Maryland again!

mayawild said...

So seriously?
Winter is STILL coming?
When I saw the forecast on the news I thought it was a promo for the station from a past event. Unbelievable winter.
I suppose I could stand one more wafer thin mint.
M
PS. Thanks for the projections Andy and Co. !

ravensbbr said...

...and here I was looking for an excuse to take off St Patrick's Day anyway... :D

ravensbbr said...

...and here I was looking for an excuse to take off St Patrick's Day anyway... :D

Amy said...

I swear they will be shoveling the Yard this year for opening day. I'm a powder Hound but with 3 weeks out from d-day I'm sweating my thermodynamics unit.

Uncertainty reigns in March...