Sunday, November 23, 2014

Turkey in the snow?

Turkey in the Snow?
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST MAY SEE FIRST 
WIDESPREAD WHITE THANKSGIVING SINCE 1989

7:30 PM EST 11/23 - UPDATED - Discussion of scenarios below. 

NOAA Snow Probabilities: Moderate (40%) chance of 4" for Northeast US



1:05 PM 11/23 (By the Kentucky & Winter Stormcast Teams) Although the Thanksgiving holiday period is finally arriving, Mother Nature shows no signs of taking time off as the potential is increasing for a significant weather event that could snarl one of the busiest travel days of the year.

THE SITUATION: Our team first identified the potential for a "White Thanksgiving" in an October 25 post, due in part to data showing a record high snow-cover for Siberia and the downstream effects that large Arctic highs would have coming across the Pole. Now in present day, numerous medium range model runs support a significant winter storm occurring on Wednesday into Thanksgiving morning near the East coast. 
  • The areas which may see notable to significant impacts from this system extend from South Carolina to the Mid-Atlantic, into the Northeast all the way to Maine. 
  • As with all storm forecasts more than 72 hours out, we expect considerable variance between forecasted data and outcomes, until shortly before the event begins.
  • The timing of this system creates additional concern for the traveling public, hence we are outlining scenarios early to help identify which pattern will prevail.


SCENARIO A: OUR GOOSE IS COOKED. An area of low pressure develops in the northern Gulf and moves along the East coast, bringing Gulf moisture while drawing in Atlantic moisture. The system would tap cold air from a snow-cover influenced surface high in western PA/NY. 

  • This track would hug the shoreline, bringing heavy rain and tidal flooding to coastal communities and heavy snow in the interior. 
  • As temperatures fall into the 30s through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, rain would change to snow in the major cities and continue heavy overnight, producing  a major snowfall to a majority of the Northeastern states. 
  • CNN features long lines of weary travelers stuck in airports.
The latest liquid projections by the US Global Forecast System for BWI airport show why there's much concern for Scenario A. Nearly 1.0" of liquid falling as snow would be a major problem.

SCENARIO B: BETTER LEAVE EARLY ANYWAY. The storm develops weaker and further east than in Scenario A. This would produce far less precip for the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. 

  • However, colder air will be more available, as northwest flow would rush in behind the departing storm. Coastal areas would see a cold rain or wet snow that has trouble sticking until after nightfall Wednesday. 
  • The bulk of energy would affect northern states, especially New England while the Mid-Atlantic is only brushed with light accumulations. 



SCENARIO C: CANCEL THE SNOWSUIT SEARCH! Strength and influence of the Great Lakes system on Tuesday nudges any coastal Low pressure away from the eastern seaboard, in tandem with surface high pressure to the north. 


  • This would bring only brief light precipitation to coastal areas, little or no precipitation to major cities and minimal impacts on Thanksgiving travel.

Our Winter Stormcast Team will be frequently monitoring the latest changes and updating here as data becomes available. Our next update is planned for Monday where we will narrow the scenarios to 2 options and begin discussing precip and snowfall ideas.

(Report by the Kentucky Team: Forecasters Kyle Jackson, Darius Mack, and Lead Forecaster Chris Reece. Additional content by Maryland Team members Mike Natoli, Connor Meehan, Joey Krastel and Rich Foot)

72 comments:

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Good Morning once again! Quite a difference of opinions on this forecast at present. No question The Euro model has the east coast taking a significant Nor'Easter Wednesday into Thursday but the other models are not quite so optimistic or pessimistic depending on your travel plans. This is one worth following for sure!

NeedaSnowday said...

Ok, so......if the storm busts I will take the blame. Bought a snowblower.... Love snow storms, but not digging the shoveling part... Pun intended!

Andy called this one so far in advance that it gave me time to research the one we would need.... Ready for it!!!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Needy,

For me nothing has changed since the beginning of the month. This has always been the time period (5 days up to Thanksgiving) in my mind that could deliver historically big.

I felt confident enough in the period to fuel my snowblower, put away the fall and summer bay gear, and share my thoughts here with specificity very early.

Anytime you have a historic arctic outbreak and record cold, followed by record warmth, then relaxation of the pattern, that is a period where snow history is made around here.

I always aim to have a jump start on potential major events. Following the hourly details on computer models outside of 5 days in my book is silly. Models are awful at details at that lead, and often just within that lead.

The big picture is what counts not the murky ever changing surface details that too many dwell upon.

The skill of the models once we are inside 5 days increase exponentially, so they are very useful now.

Mr. Foot is always right that you should not trust the models on details outside of 72 hours and never make a detailed forecast outside of 48 hours.

I might be able to see a freight train from 5 miles away moving very fast toward me from my mountain perch. But until it gets closer I don't know how many people are on it, exactly how fast it's moving, and what registration numbers are painted on its side. Until its closer in the case of weather forecasting inside 48 hours, I can only tell you it's big, moving fast, and might roll over you!

If the train derails you are fine. If its stays the course look out!

I will label this as a potential 6-10 inch event in the low land areas near the cities and bay, and a 10-15 inch event in the colder highlands.

The devil is in the details and time will tell if the potential is realized. As we get closer the picture will be less murky.



BioPat said...

Needa, glad you're on board with the snow blower. This year I suspect you may have made a very wise choice. Andy, love your freight train analogy, I may use that tomorrow in class as we discuss potential of the "Gizzard Blizzard" as I hear it may be coined. Looking forward to following the blog this week. Now off to give our scottish "terriorist" a much needed bath at the dog wash before it gets cold once again.

BioPat said...

Just an interesting tidbit - we drove out to Ellicott City to go to the dog wash and passed the road salt supply center on Rt 40 west. As we passed the center we noted that the county/state trucks were lined up and being loaded with the road salt. So I'm thinking the info out there may be credible enough to do some preparation work.

NeedaSnowday said...

Andy! Brilliant analogy.... Made me start singing the old O'Jays hit!!

People all over the world (Sisters and brothers)
Join hands (join, come on)
Start a love train (ride this train, y'all), love train (Come on)
People all over the world (Don't need no tickets)
Join hands (come on, ride)
Start a love train, love train

BP...I think it was a wise purchase whereas hubby isn't quite sure yet....

Only time will tell!

kyleZ said...

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow&amt=12&day=null

Nws has 60% chance of seeing 4 inches and 30% chance of 8 inches through Thursday through central MD

Mike Cheuvront said...

I was afraid since we bought a new Kubota tractor with a plow attachment, we would not see a flake. But we have already seen an inch the last go round.

Andy, most impressive call. Even if it doesn't verify. Long range calls are extremely rare to nail. I pray you blow the doors off it!

ravensbbr said...

Getting the ole' Deere back from the yearly tuneup tomorrow. Bring it on, a week of hunting, family and football IN THE SNOW!!!

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I am attempting to analyze the model using a reverse Reed Solomon binary transverse induced filter, with both mean and median bias applied on the resulting third degree polynomial product (but only to the fifth power, of course). However I cannot replicate the result of your model. Can you please post a detailed schema of your computational analysis and if possible the corresponding matlab source.

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