Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Hey weather: Don't be a turkey!
AN EARLY LOOK AT THANKSGIVING WEEK CONDITIONS

UPDATED 11/22/2014 - If long range projections are on target, it appears Mother Nature got our memo from 9/25 when we anticipated that a "White Thanksgiving was more likely this year than a White Christmas." The European and US Global Forecast System model printouts, though just at the 120-hour mark, are leaning toward a more snowy result for the mid-Atlantic Wednesday night into Thanksgiving Day. With this event potentially impacting the busiest travel period of the year, we are preparing an overview of the possible hazards, timing and intensity for posting here on Sunday.

NOAA SURFACE MAP PROJECTION FOR
NEXT MON 11/25 AS OF WED 11/19.
11/19/2014 - We know it's coming on quickly, there's nothing anyone can do about it, and there are some who wish it would never happen.

It's not the raucous Midwest-Great Lakes storm to roar through the heartland next week... 

Rather, it is the sometimes dreaded Thanksgiving week travel and the shopping frenzy to follow -- that plunges us all headlong into a spin cycle of insanity. Toss in a "little weather" to the airline adventure and whoop! There it is: Harried parents and woesome children at long ticket counter lines... and so on.

But thanks to taxpayer-funded technology, we have access to this really cool technology from the US Department of Commerce that actually SHOWS, like, a glimpse of what things could be like next week as the holiday travel season launches forth. This way, it's not a mystery to anyone:
  • MONDAY: A vigorous storm system will develop in the southern plains and head for the Great Lakes. On east side of the storm, temperatures Mon-Tue in the Eastern U.S. will begin rebounding to seasonal levels. On the west side of the storm, as noted by the cold front above, conditions will be -- you guessed it -- STORMY! Strong winds, heavy rain and then potentially heavy snow.
  • TUESDAY: We already hear Airport Operators saying, "Can we just get that thing outta here before Wednesday?" Well try, my friends, we'll try. However, it is reasonable to expect flight delays may begin Tuesday and spread into Wednesday because of the front sweeping across the Eastern states.  Places that face potential travel disruptions may include the I-95 corridor from Richmond to New York as a series of Lows could develop and move north along the cold front. Indications point to this being more of a "wet" day than a "white" one, as temperatures should stay above freezing. We'll monitor closely of course as the day approaches. 
  • WEDNESDAY: Arrival of the dreaded big travel day. Early interpretation from NOAA's Day 7 map, while still quite distant in weather time concerns, suggests the hope of travelers may pan out: High pressure looks to reestablish behind the front in the Eastern US, stabilizing the pattern from storminess for Wed into Thanksgiving Day. 
Until then, think ahead to how you would alter your plans for travel on Wed 11/26 IF you had to, unless the weather decides to cut us a break this year and not be a turkey after all.

Forecaster Foot & the Long Range Team

13 comments:

ravensbbr said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
kyleZ said...

who is this guy? Any snowstorms on the horizon Andy?

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

No secret that I have been a fan of the 5 day window leading into Thanksgiving. Arctic air, chaos, 60 degree plus temps, more arctic air. That spells one thing in my book, that is a shot at some manly snow. So in true form the models are picking up on a potential event just in time for Thanksgiving. Will there be plowable snow? Time will tell! This has been the 5 day window that pulled me out of the offseason cave, let's see if it can deliver some frost on the turkey and bury the leftovers.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

NWS BALT WASH:

Upper level trough over the Mississippi Valley will move east
through the period. Jet maximum will pass from southwest to north of the
middle Atlantic region Monday night through Tuesday. Shortwave will
reach the Atlantic coast by Wednesday night. The trough will reach
the coast by early Friday.


Surface boundary setting up from north to south across the area east of the Blue Ridge early Monday. Dry slot taking over Monday night through Tuesday.

Developing low off South Atlantic coast will move northward along the coast transporting moisture into middle Atlantic
region at middle week.

Mike Cheuvront said...

That was great BBR. I laughed quite hard. Thanks! Happy Thanksgiving my flaky friends! :)

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Chances of a significant snow are increasing for Wednesday into Thursday. Something to follow closely due to travel implications. Latest euro advertising a 6 to 10 inch event. Time to tell, too early to worry about details but my snowblower has been out for the last 3 weeks in eager anticipation of this time period. It really is our best shot!

kyleZ said...

Thanks for the insight Andy just hoping for no ice!! All snow please.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

Finally...there is uncertainty/low confidence in potential impacts
associated with one or more waves developing in the western Atlantic
during the middle to second half of next week. This situation
will continue to be watched as the western periphery of the moisture shield may contain snow. Solutions from the 00z Sat suite are still very much mixed...with gefs solutions largely focused on a mostly offshore storm to affect the fishes...while operational

European model (ecmwf) shows much more widespread inland snowfall impacts on Wednesday... one of the busiest travel days of the year. Stay tuned

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

If you do not posses a predilection to misanthropy, or have not been otherwise ostracized from the greater traditional American community, then you my friends will likely be drivin! Driving to get some mash potatoes at grannies is a Baltimore tradition, but driving in mash potatoes on the highway is something that rarely happens on Thanksgiving in these here parts.

With that being stated, I would carefully watch ever changing forecasts as Wednesday, the busiest travel day of the year approaches. Signs are that there is a potential coastal storm brewing that "COULD" impact the region. Far too early to get cute with details, but any snow is bad news for travel.

It takes a special event to pull a lazy slumbering beast like me out of off season hibernation early. This 5 day window leading up to Thanksgiving woke me up, and had me gassing the snowblower. It is fully gassed and ready! Can it snow this week? You bet? Can it snow significantly? NO QUESTION! Will it snow and ice our travel plans? TIME WILL TELL!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

1 to 2 feet of snow? Snowblower ready? According to the 12z euro today why not! Stay tuned! Happy Thanksgiving history if the euro is right!!!!

NeedaSnowday said...

Just looked at Euro... :::blink::: all snow!
Andy, you are one bad a$$ forecaster!!!

kyleZ said...

Hope this is right Andy!! Should be fun trying to travel though If we even can.

NeedaSnowday said...

BBR... Funny stuff!

By the way if you want to ignore that very long-winded spam attack click on the blogger icon and it will disappear!