Tuesday, November 25, 2014

"Let The Storm Rage Onnnn...."

"Let The Storm Rage Onnnn...."
-Elsa, from Frozen (2013)
  • NEW LIQUID PROJECTIONS OF 1.0" FOR I-95 CORRIDOR SUGGEST LESS SNOW, MORE RAIN FOR METRO AREAS.
  • APPALACHIANS, INTERIOR NORTHEAST WOULD HAVE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS IF AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW SHIFTS WEST 


10:15 AM 11/25 - SCROLL DOWN FOR STORM OVERVIEW & SNOWFALL MAP. 
Latest resources for your reference:

DISRUPTIVE WINTER STORM TO IMPACT MID-ATLANTIC 
& NORTHEASTERN STATES INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING




3:15 AM 11/25 - SITUATIONAL ASSESSMENT BY THE WINTER STORMCAST TEAM 
  • TIMING: Precipitation starts as a rain snow mix in most areas late Tuesday night, no accumulation. By daybreak Wednesday, changeover to snow begins in western areas, with eastern areas transitioning to mainly snow starting mid-morning late Wed AM.    We expect all areas except coastal regions to be mainly snow by 1 PM Wednesday. 
  • IMPACTS: Heaviest precipitation from 10 AM to 3 PM Initial warm surfaces will prevent most accumulation except on grassy areas and non-paved. Temperatures should remain between 32°-35° throughout the event. Critical impact to travelers will be low visibility in heavy wet snow from 1 PM to 5 PM, slowing traffic. Slippery conditions are likely as heavy snowfall overcomes warm surfaces by mid-day.
  • SCENARIOS: Higher confidence for Scenario A, but significant accumulation (up to 4") not expected for major cities. North and west of I-95 will see bulk of heavy snowfall with amounts up to 6" possible for rural and suburban areas.  

12 comments:

Westsidehideaway said...

Bmore is dodging the bullet? Well that's good. I guess. Stack up the wood and enjoy the view. That is the plan here in West Baltimore.

BioPat said...

Good Morning all! Andy's forecast and JB's forecast are both indicating somwhat more accumulation. Still a bit early but bears watching. As Andy has stated last winter the Euro hit the mark almost every event. I'm sticking with the Euro on this one.

ravensbbr said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
ravensbbr said...

"I want more quotes from 'Frozen'!"

Said no one, ever.

:-p

kyleZ said...

FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-LOUDOUN-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...LEESBURG...
WARRENTON
1101 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6
AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND
MASON-DIXON LINE. 1 TO 3 INCHES ELSEWHERE.

* TIMING...A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW
BETWEEN 6 AND 9 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS
EXPECTED BETWEEN 9 AM AND 2 PM WEDNESDAY. SNOW WILL END LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

* WINDS...NORTH BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.

* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY AND
VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED BELOW A HALF MILE AT TIMES...MAINLY
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE.
INTERSTATES 66...70 AND 83 WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE SNOW. THIS
WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOLIDAY TRAVEL
PLANS...ESPECIALLY FOR TRAVELERS HEADED NORTH AND WEST TO
LOCATIONS NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
HEAVY AMOUNTS OF WET SNOW MAY CAUSE DOWNED TREES THAT LEAD TO
AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

kyleZ said...

MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...
CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX
1101 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SUBURBS OF WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. A COATING TO AN INCH NEAR
INTERSTATE 95.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BETWEEN 8 AND 11 AM WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH 2 PM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

* WINDS...NORTH BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 MPH.

* IMPACTS...ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUBURBS OF WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. SNOW WILL ALSO REDUCE THE VISIBILITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.


HARFORD-
1101 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE. 1 TO 2
INCHES ELSEWHERE.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BETWEEN 7 AND 10 AM WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 10 AM AND 2 PM
WEDNESDAY. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

* WINDS...NORTH BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 MPH.

* IMPACTS...ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY...MAINLY
NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE. SNOW WILL ALSO REDUCE THE VISIBILITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

BioPat said...

Thanks for the updated information, we'll still continue to watch for any pattern changes.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Kyle,

Thanks for posting. I have been away from computer due to other obligations today until now and did not catch the NWS products..

The advisory and warnings look good from the NWS based on all current guidance. The storm is a very wet system and the areas that remain cold will be a solid 6-10 inch event.

As always the rain/snow line and changeover time are critical for the low land areas near the city and bay.

I think the Advisory and Warnings have been further supported by the subsequent 12z Euro thermal profiles.

Bottom line is this is a major snowstorm for the MD northern counties away from I-95, and a major travel mess for areas on the fringes near the cities.

The key going forward is to see how fast the surface will cool when the changeover happens in the urban areas near I-95. Being on the border there is tough in a marginal set-up temperature wise. So for that area we need to watch the continued evolution very carefully.

Everyone will see heavy snow, the northern area will have a major impact due to heavy stickage on raods etc., and the battle zones to the south will have to be nowcasted as to where the lines are finally drawn.

STAY SAFE!

kyleZ said...

Thanks Andy quick question how bad do you think travel will be to the stewartstown area in york county for thanksgiving.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

I live near there and travel through it all the time. You should be fine. Penn dot does a good job once the storm is over. This storm will be history by thanksgiving morning and cleanup will have taken place by lunch.

kyleZ said...

Ok thanks

BioPat said...

PK, just gave the snow blower a final start up before putting it into action tomorrow. Got the turkey after a 40 min wait at Treuthe's but it's worth the wait for the fresh turkey.
Question of the day from the kids; "Will we have school tomorrow" I suspect we'll all go in but MSJ has a 12:30 dismissal for the holiday so hopefully won't be too bad at that point.