Sunday, December 7, 2014

Heat Miser or Snow Miser?
WHICH ONE VISITS YOUR REGION THIS WEEK?

PHOTO CREDIT: AUTHOR NICHOLAS KAUFMANN HONORING THE PASSING OF ARTHUR RANKIN,
PRODUCER OF THE MUCH-LOVED 1970'S HOLIDAY SERIES INCLUDING "YEAR WITHOUT A SANTA CLAUS"

8:00 AM EST 12/7 (Forecaster Kyle Jackson and Mr. Foot) If you've ever seen those old-time Christmas holiday specials from the 70s, you know of all the characters they spawned (such as Winter Warlock, The Misfit Toys, etc), the two that became most popular over the years are none other than HEAT MISER and SNOW MISER!

Looking at the weather plan for the week ahead, it would seem Heat Miser is having his way with the pattern. But lurking just offshore are new diabolical plans from Snow Miser (who we know always seemed to be Mother Natures favorite anyway;-)  

Truth be told, we're not sure who's really in charge right now up there. After such a cold November, even normalized temperatures seem mild, right? How long will this last, you ask? Let's take a look at what ahead: 

SYNOPSIS: While we know the Snow Misers out there would love to see the mild temperatures go…. Mother Nature has other ideas. 
  • As the week progresses we will see those temperatures drop back to the normal ‘December’ feel;
  • Snow chances for the Northeast will ramp up, with a possible Nor’easter late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. 


MONDAY: The calm before the storm? Areas from the Ohio Valley to New England will see a nice amount of sunshine thanks to some high pressure moving across the Great Lakes. Temperatures will range from around the mid-40s and 50s in the Ohio Valley to mid-20s and 30s in New England.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: Mostly clear skies across most of the Eastern U.S. will give way to temperatures falling around the mid-30s and 20s for overnight lows. 
  • Tuesday is where things will get interesting. A nice amount of low pressure spinning off the coast will bring a mix of rain, sleet and snow to areas from Maryland to Maine.
  • Snowfall accumulations right now are looking heavier closer to the coast and less the farther you go inland. Temperatures will stay around the mid-30s for highs.
  • Sadly, it seems no snow for SouthTown in this go around


MID-WEEK TO WEEKEND: Beyond the big storm on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, some leftover scattered flurries may hang around for Wednesday in New England. For the rest of the week, we should stay dry thanks to more high pressure pushing through. Temperatures will hangout around the mid-30s and low 40s all week.


LONG RANGE TAKEAWAYS?

  • Monday will be a calm day before the storm to take care of any items outdoors you may not want affected by snow and wind.
  • The BIG item this week will be the Nor’easter’ on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning that could put down a good amount of snowfall for areas from eastern Maryland to Maine.
  • Rest of the week will return to seasonable temperatures for most of the east, in the mid-30s and 40s while we stay dry thanks to High pressure.

19 comments:

NeedaSnowday said...

Ravens with a HUGE win.... Snow in our future, eh??

Mike Cheuvront said...

The storm I mentioned days ago has finally caught the attention of the horrible GFS. Data input criteria for this model did not handle the Thanksgiving storm and failed to see this one until now. With that said, the situation in our area as with most storms, complex. Marginal cold air available. The storm must be in perfect position for us to see some snow. At present it appears to be a big deal farther north of us. Always hopeful it will change. I won't pretend to know the parameters when the GFS is calibrated but something is not being accounted for with this models runs to be so horrible against the others. Keep in mind the outlook including the extended is based off this worthless model. So if your online looking at the outlook, don't lose heart for Christmas snow.

Brett Kozloski said...

Justin Burke's weather blog offers more regular updates!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Not much to say about this rain event except the Baltimore fringe zones near the PA border will have some freezing drizzle that will transition to plain rain. It's a complicated system but for Baltimore metro it's mostly rain with non accumulating snow. Only thing to keep an eye on is if wrap around cold at the end could deliver a fast inch or two somewhere nearby.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Odds continue to increase for Christmas week snow. White Christmas? The 5 days leading up to Christmas look very winter like snow and cold!

Mike Cheuvront said...

Andy- That's what I am seeing also. Do you use a combo of all the models or do you prefer one over most?

BioPat said...

Well Andy and Mike, that being the case it will be a longer holiday for some school systems who are in session through the 23rd. Time to begin watching the models.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Mike,

I use the models inside 5 days, especially inside 3 for details. Outside of that always blend most when they agree on large scale features, and always adjust expectations for climatology when appropriate. The pattern screams stormy with plenty southern stream energy with just sufficient cold air. Storm track over details in the long range.

NeedaSnowday said...

You are getting some snow right now aren't you Andy?! ::::looks out window and frowns::::

Amy said...

It's snowing in Columbia!

kyleZ said...

Snowing like crazy in Harford county

NeedaSnowday said...

Snowing again!

Mike Cheuvront said...

Well it may not be plowable snow but the storm I spoke about well before this thread started has finally brought us alittle whiteness. Enjoy :-)

NeedaSnowday said...

21st is first day of winter... Right? Eye candy from euro...

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

The Christmas week blizzard of 2014? That time period has been screaming snow for weeks. If the operation euro from 12z is right then get ready to dig? Is it? 1 to 2 feet of wind whipped snow or computer fantasy? Time will tell!

kyleZ said...

Hope we get slammed Christmas with snow is so much better thanks Andy!!

NeedaSnowday said...

BBR.... Uhm, was that game ugly or what????

Thanks Andy for confirming the Euro eye candy... I was getting ready to blame myself for the lack of snow since I bought a snowblower... I would like an opportunity to test it out if you know what I'm saying... hint hint!!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Needy,

I know exactly what you mean. You can come to my pad and snowblower my driveway anytime you like! I have full faith you will get it down to blacktop in no time! As long as you don't get altitude sickness working above 1000 feet elevation you are good to go.

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