Monday, December 1, 2014

"The sun doesn't shine, the world doesn't turn."
NASA's Pic of the Day from December 22, 2007

6:30 PM EST 12/1 (By Kentucky Team Lead Forecaster Chris Reece & the Lead Story Team)
For those who frequent this website and our team's regional or metro Facebook pages, we know there are times when a gap between updates causes "uneasiness." Especially in winter, we are told by people in various parts of the Mid-Atlantic that "you guys really need to update more, and do more long range stuff." 
Some of these readers even report that others come to THEM seeking an inside scoop: "Got any inside info from Foots?" they are asked. So to help our long-time readers get your sun  shining righter and world turning better, we are launching a special weekly basic Long Range feature, starting today! 

SYNOPSIS: This time last week we were watching closely for a major winter storm to roll up the east coast in the coming days. That led us into a cold Thanksgiving time period that had some festive flakes to go along with it. Now we find ourselves facing the full blown holiday shopping season right upon us. The question now is, “Where will the pattern take us next... into Winter or back to Fall?"
Well my friends, it appears the winter pattern will eventually reload, and should be active over the next 10 days. Let’s start with now and work forward. 


  • MONDAY: The week started  much warmer than it will end. Areas from Kentucky all the way over to Maryland experience temperatures in the 50s to upper 60s, as the area of high pressure that brought the colder temperatures last week now sits just off the southeastern coast, which  produced southwest wind, and thus, warmer temperatures.
  • MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: Temperatures crashed Monday afternoon much of the eastern half of the country bringing highs from the 60s to lows in the 20s. This will set the stage for a wintry mix of rain sleet and snow for select locations in the Mid-Atlantic, especially Maryland into Pennsylvania and the Virginia/West Virginia mountains.
  • MID-WEEK TO THE WEEKEND: Beyond that, subtle rain chances will continue as our front stalls out and slowly retreats back to the north over the course of the week, but things shouldn’t be a washout by any means for most of us. We then continue to warm up to seasonable temperatures. 
Long range forecast data then begins to send more shots of cold air in the 9 to 10 day period. That’s likely a hint of the back and forth period of cold and warm air that will take place before the cold begins to take over for the middle and end of this month.


THE LONG RANGE TAKEAWAY?

  • The next 10 days will feature a day or two of cold with a small chance of wintry weather that shouldn’t be too disruptive, at least not for Maryland just yet. 
  • Areas west towards Kentucky will want to stay on close look for wintry weather potential. 
  • Conditions gradually warm towards seasonable temperatures by next week with off and on rain chances. Beyond that, cold weather looks likely to return toward end of next week. 
  • The southern jet stream has been active lately, and if it continues into the middle and end of December, which it certainly looks possible, then the Thanksgiving storm was only the beginning of what could be an active winter period.

CAN I STILL PUT UP THE LIGHTS?
Yes, but you’ll want to be very vigilant for scattered showers here and there. Otherwise the next 5-10 days will at least hold Arctic air at a distance in Canada. But those opportunities to get it done won't last much longer that that.




NEED THE INSIDE SCOOP? JOIN OUR CLUB! 
For those who want MORE and would enjoy exclusive Insider access to our briefings, reports and insights, this winter consider joining the "Powderhound Club." Just send us a simple message to winter@footsforecast.org and we'll provide the latest Powderhound Insider newsletter with details on what's coming in December, special discounts on hoodies and reports from the Winter Stormcast Team.
If you have suggestions on features we can include in the weekly long range report, let us know in the comments below. 

9 comments:

kyleZ said...

Any storms coming up? Really want a big one before Christmas.

JessiStillman said...

Interesting Stuff:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/12/02/why-prosperous-autumn-snows-in-eurasia-may-portend-a-brutal-east-coast-winter/

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

kyleZ said...

Very interesting indeed thanks for posting hopefully the AO and NAO both go negative then the real fun begins!!!

Mike Cheuvront said...

Andy are you on the storm that most models but the GFS have for next week? It looks like more of a North East Storm.

NeedaSnowday said...

I enjoy his video blogs...educational!
https://www.facebook.com/mike.masco

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Christmas week snow? I like that window for what it is worth. Nuisance mixed events and cold rain seem in the table for the next week. Christmas week could be very interesting for some real fun. Since our little foray to winter around Thanksgiving things have been quite. That will end after 12/20.

Mike Cheuvront said...

The euro is still showing a storm off the coast next week people. Is anyone going to cover at least the possible scenerio? Several well known's are hinting it. There will be quite a battle in Maryland for enough cold air.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Mike,

Next week does not look favorable for any widespread plowable snow. Nevertheless, anything is possible in the world of weather.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

The upcoming storm could provide some heavy mixed precipitation surprises for areas north and west of Baltimore. It's a huge rainstorm for the cities but could be a slopfest to the far north, and even produce some accumulating snows in the elevated areas of the Mason-Dixon Line.