Sunday, January 11, 2015

Stick a fork in Monday, it's done.

Stick a fork in Monday, it's done.
(then it gets interesting)


8:01 PM 1/11 (Forecaster Troy & the Winter Stormcast Team)  The latest radar image shows the wintry weather slowly moving into our area from the South and West. The large area of green show on the map shows there is abundant moisture in the atmosphere and this storm means business. With the sun now set, temperatures will continue to drop back down below freezing. Meanwhile, the NWS has hoisted widespread Freezing Rain or Winter Weather advisories for the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states.

SPLAT OR PLINK? - Precipitation will start to move in overnight and this will set the stage for freezing rain during the Monday morning commute. Areas in southern PA could hear sleet and snow mixed first. Temperatures will rise during the day on Monday but from Baltimore on south to Washington, the freezing rain should slowly change over to just cold rain by late morning. Areas to the North and West from Carroll and Frederick Counties into the Blue Ridge will remain below freezing for longer and freezing rain could last into the early afternoon. 

TEMP CRASH COMING - After Monday’s storm temperatures will crash into the low 20s for Monday night, which could led to refreezing issues for Tuesday morning. After that our attention turns to another possible wintry storm for the Mid-Atlantic region on Wednesday. There is some uncertainty in the weather models about the Wednesday's event and more details of timing and amount will come in after this storm shows it's true colors. 

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8:51 AM 1/11 - Siberian Sunday Greetings!! It is so cold out there, even some "true" Powderhounds are opting to stay inside. With most area temperatures hovering near 10 F, we can't blame them! 

  • TODAY - Do we finally break 32 F? You betcha! A light southerly flow will allow some locations especially near the Bay to climb into the middle or upper 30s under plenty of sunshine. 

  • TONIGHT - Cloud cover moving in from the next system will actually keep temperatures from falling as low as recent nights. However, a frozen ground will aid in dropping surface lows to the mid and upper 20s. Light freezing rain is expected by 11 PM, continuing overnight.
  • MONDAY - Beware the glaze! A majority of the region will awaken to a widespread sheen of freezing rain, with up to 0.10" by 6 AM in northern counties bordering the PA line and lesser amounts south. As is the case in many previous freezing rain events, temperatures usually do not rise as quickly as we all would like. 

It would be nice if we could promise you that everything has conveniently melted by, say, 9:00 AM allowing for your day to merrily go on its way unimpeded. But remember, this is Maryland. We do things the complicated way around here. 

  • Our projection is for temperatures to slowly rise to about 31-32, and then hover there. Due to the physics inherent in how freezing rain occurs at the surface, this hovering should allow slighty more ice to accrete than is currently indicated in NWS forecasts. 
  • We think 0.20" for northern counties, about 0.10" for areas just outside about the urban centers, and less than 0.10" in Baltimore and Washington proper.
Representative Locations

In fact, we won't be surprised to see Winter Weather Advisories extended by early Monday morning for areas along the PA/MD line if warm air doesn't scour out the cold air as planned. 

Monday night into Tuesday - In keeping with that popular complicated Maryland way of doing things, it would be nice if could tell you winds overnight into Tuesday will happily evaporate all the standing water, leaving a bone dry surface by morning. Sadly, the real truth is refreezing will occur as temps drop to the low 20s, producing another round of school decision challenges for many.

What's next? Oh, the usual. 

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genser95 said...

You guys are saying the exact opposite of what's happening.The models are warmer, not colder.

BioPat said...

Freezing rain still in the forecast through late morning tomorrow. It Will be cold enough at the surface for the rain to freeze on contact and cause quite a mess for morning travel. I am betting on at least a 2 hour late Monday.

NeedaSnowday said...

Agreed BP.... Thoughts on Wednesday?

I feel like a robot going through the motions today... ugh! Had to check the box anyway.....

Westsidehideaway said...

Quite nice in West Bmore at 1:30 Sunday afternoon. More snow melting.

Amy said...

Aaco has phoned in a 2 hour delay. Who is next?

Any clearer thoughts on the timing of the event and when it will change over to rain?

NeedaSnowday said...

PG County called 2 hour delay at 5:30!

kyleZ said...

Andy are you in hibernation from this cold or is there just not much to talk about? Haha Hopefully something happens soon could use a big storm for everyone.

BioPat said...

Tomorrow looks to be a problem but once again timing is everything; wonder how long this will take us into the morning. So far as Wednesday it appears the models my be backing off a bot but still too many days out for anything definitive.

I'm looking forward to hearing from Andy. I think he'll be seeing snow tomorrow while wee see the ice in Baltimore. Be safe!

NeedaSnowday said...

Psst... ::whispering:: he posted in the Mid Altantic weather forum this evening! Maybe he will roll through here.....

NeedaSnowday said...

BBR and Ravens fans...Did you see the great news??

Kubiak is STAYING! Too excited to sleep... Hoping for a delay now!!


kyleZ said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
kyleZ said...

Baltimore (Hereford only), Carroll, Frederick and Harford now all closed today!