Tuesday, January 20, 2015

What about Wednesday?

What about Wednesday?



6:30 PM EST 1/20 - Our Winter Stormcast Team has been tracking the approach of a fast-moving Alberta Clipper now entering the northern Great Lakes area today. This system is expected to impact the upper Ohio Valley tonight and cross the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. A timeline of effects in the eastern states:
  • Overnight into Wednesday, snow will move into western Maryland and southern Pennsylvania.
  • By daybreak Wednesday, expect snow showers in the I-81 to I-95 corridors, reaching the Eastern shore toward end of the morning commute. 



Forecaster Joe of our Northern West Virginia Team noted in an updated statement,  "The quick nature of this system will LIMIT snowfall totals to less than 2" for most areas in Maryland, but ANY brief heavy bursts of snow could create some slick roadways!"

SNOWFALL PROJECTIONS: Areas we expect to see the highest snow totals may be from the southern Allegheny front of southwestern PA to central PA down to the Laurel Highlands and Blue Ridge regions. Another zone of 2" or so straddling the PA/MD line is also probable. However, with the bulk of this snow falling between 8 AM and 1 PM, accumulations are more likely for grassy, untreated and shaded surfaces than main roads. 

SURPRISE POTENTIAL? If the center of Low pressure associated with this clipper tracks a few miles farther south, such as across DC instead of across northern Maryland or southern PA, snowfall rates and totals may slightly rise. Secondly, if the system travels slightly faster, bringing snowfall to the major cities before dawn, this would adversely affect the AM commute for a few hours between 5 AM and 8 AM. We'll continue monitoring the situation and report changes here and on our Facebook pages as conditions warrant.


Is winter done, or is there more?


Seasoned powderhounds frequenting this page know that despite January's usual back-and-forth weather, climate records point to an undeniable truth about what lies ahead for the Eastern U.S.

Some of our highest impact winter storms come during just one month: February.

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Forecaster Jason Mitchell of the Southern Maryland Team, 
actively serving our readers since March 2010 in the Washington DC region,


19 comments:

ravensbbr said...

Andy? BP? Bueller?

Timing could not be worse. What happened to the good old days when snow fell overnight in enough quantity to call off everything for the day by 6AM? :-)

BioPat said...

Looks like this clipper will be arriving a little earlier, heading a bit further south and also a bit more intense. The new Governor's day will not be spoiled but it could make getting home a bit tough. Schools may have to close a couple hours early to get the kids home safely and the roads promise to be as big a mess as usual with impatient drivers and road crews behind them trying to do their jobs. However still not a major event. Next week may hold some promise for those of us we call powderhounds!!

Mike Cheuvront said...

Forget the clipper it won't be any big deal. Euro and Canada GEM model and even the new updated 12z run of the GFS all show a nice coastal storm hitting us. This would be our first real storm if if if if if if. You know what I'm saying?

NeedaSnowday said...

No...no.....noooooo....we are in midterms this week.... No...no...No ....

Students out at 11:10! I am leavin that snowblower in the box!!

27&28 ..ok... Now your talkin! Pencil me in for those dates as acceptable!

Butch Dynomite said...

What? ....this doesn't seem to be playing out as expected...also hasn't the gfs been beefed up...more data points. More processesing power? Maybe it will earn some respect in the near future.

Anthony Foppiano said...

Are you saying that this may become a coastal storm, or that there is a later one in the works?

kyleZ said...

Andy bring us good news we need a big one!!

Westsidehideaway said...

Gotta be at work tomorrow in Downtown Bmore. Hope it is only an inch or so. When will the updated forecast come out?

Mike Cheuvront said...

The 12z run of the GFS was for the 24th (Saturday) shows a coastal storm for the Mid Atlantic.

But remember folks, THE MODELS CAN'T BE TRUSTED OUTSIDE 2-3 DAYS. Some of us want a big storm to get off school. I want it because I am a powderhound!

We are entering prime time for winter weather. Let's hope our dreams are fullfilled.

Brian carlberg said...

Hey Mike, are you new to the Foot's Team?

Mike Cheuvront said...

Brian, No I have been on the blog for about 3 years now. I posted alot last winter.

kyleZ said...

Yea Saturday's system has a lot more potential for us powerhounds hopefully we have enough cold air for an all snow event.

Brian carlberg said...

Well then, welcome aboard Mike!

Amy said...

Worst timing ever! Midterms tomorrow. I DO NOT want a 2 hour delay.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Have had zero time to look at weather data until now. Clipper will start as snow showers and steadier snow may not take hold until late morning. Surface temps may limit accumulation outside of heavier bands. Snow might be of a showery variety and hit and miss heavier bands. 1 to 5 inches is the floor to ceiling with many highly variable and localized totals. Clippers can be very tricky and this one is no exception especially with warmer surface temps. Weekend storm has some potential but no blocking so I will wait until we are a little closer to see where the rain snow line will setup.

BioPat said...

Just got home from Goucher and it looks like the Beltway was pre-treated in anticipation for tomorrow's storm. As most of you have stated tomorrow is more of a nuisance type event. We are now moving into the time of winter when we get or big storms so we'll have to wait and see if the weekend ushers in some real snow.

Amy said...

It's like a postcard outside. So pretty.

Brian carlberg said...

Hm, not seeing much powder up here in Cockeysville, here's hoping it will pick up eventually!!

Amy said...

Ready for some Saturday discussion.