Are you "Wide Awake" about next week?

Are you "Wide Awake" about next week?

A WINTRY MIX STORM WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN STATES AND REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. COLD AIR RETURNS ON TUESDAY WITH NEW CONCERNS FOR WINTRY WEATHER FOR MIDDLE OF THE WEEK

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7 AM SUNDAY SURFACE MAP PROJECTION from NOAA

12:00 PM 1/9 - UPDATED TEAM MESSAGE ABOUT NEXT WEEK'S WINTER WEATHER 

• Latest computer model runs as of 11:00 AM Friday continue to show a large system moving north from the southern states on Sunday, bringing extensive moisture from the Gulf and Atlantic, possibly enhanced by the return flow effect of the departing High into the ocean. 
• The situation on Monday morning for decision-makers at schools, universities and other institutions will center on three factors: 

1) How the overnight temperature on Sunday performes compared to the forecast. What started as a rain/snow mix for Monday in many NWS forecasts is now wintry mix as temperature projections have trended to the low and mid 30s.

2) If arrival of moisture from the south comes earlier than the 6-7 AM expected for the central and eastern Mid-Atlantic, and

3) How the precipitation commences in your area. If starting as snow/sleet -- temperatures will have ended cooler than expected, and the event may have much greater impact. If starting as freezing rain by the current NWS projection for Odenton, MD, temperatures can rebound above 32 F faster, allowing for ice melting and a brief breather to clean up before round 2 gets underway Monday night! 

• We have chosen Odenton, MD as a representative location for expected conditions along Interstate 95 in central Maryland's Baltimore/Washington metro area. View the latest updates to this NWS Hourly Forecast graphic from the Sterling VA NWS.
• Please note that while the hourly forecast graphic suggests freezing rain & sleet mixed for Monday, the Official NWS forecast for that location has "Freezing Rain Likely" for the same time period. 

3:20 AM 1/9 - WINTER STORMCAST TEAM STATEMENT. Recent storms in the eastern and northern U.S. are a clear indication the rapid action pattern we had been expecting to kickoff early in the New Year is fully underway. 

• Areas in the Mid-Atlantic having received more snow than they anticipated should be plan for a new round of potentially significant winter weather events to impact a majority of next week's schedule. 
• The long range suggests a reactivated southern stream may usher in a parade of systems every few days into late January, each laden with Pacific and Gulf moisture as being indicated by the US Climate Forecast System. 

WHAT'S THE SITUATION? As noted in the Extended Forecast Discussion at the NWS Weather Prediction Center in College Park, MD - the current sprawling dome of cold High pressure will be difficult to dislodge quickly come Sunday. Over-running moisture spreading north and east from the Gulf of Mexico will have no where else to go except into the cold dome. This arrangement points more to frozen precipitation for much of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys on Sunday, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by Monday. 

PREPARE FOR BIG CHANGES IN YOUR LOCAL FORECAST

We expect the rain/snow mix as currently depicted in many NWS local forecasts for these regions will be turning to colder scenarios. The takeaway message we have for this preliminary report: If the Day 4-5 liquid projections shown here are not going to fall as rain or snow, regions with snowpack today may be facing a long duration sleet and freezing rain event early next week.

SHADES OF 2007? The overall setup and impacts of this event may resemble the Valentine's Day "SuperKahuna of February 2007, which was also extensively forecasted by our team on this site. For a walk down forecasting memory lane, peruse the archives from that Fabulous February.

OUR TAKE-AWAY MESSAGE: Arctic cold preceding the rapid arrival of Gulf moisture is a probable setup for sleet and freezing rain versus mixed rain and snow.  

In the words of the Katy Perry song, Wide Awake, this is one of those opportune times where you won't have to be stuck with not knowing THEN what you do know NOW. That's because you're one of the 250,000 people in Maryland who follow this site - and learned a long time ago being with our team means two things:

• We work the storm with you, 24 hours a day
• We let SURPRISES stay where they belong -- in Birthday parties, not Winter Storms. 

To join our Powderhound Insiders, send a simple message to winter@footsforecast.org
and include your city, state or county, state

If you're already on the list, better check your email. 

- Forecaster Foot and Meteorologist Jolene Wagner (MD);
- Forecasters Joe Fitzwater (WV) and Troy Arcomano (NJ)