Saturday, February 28, 2015

The hits keep coming

"And the hits just keep on comin'..."
- 1972 Album by the Monkees singer Michael Nesmith

Image source: NOAA Precipitation Projections for 7 PM Sunday 3/1

9:10 AM 2/28 - Updated team statement in progress. Synopsis of forecast concerns:
  • Significant cold surfaces in the Mid-Atlantic will be retained into Sunday as moisture overruns at upper levels. Precipitation will begin Sunday afternoon as mostly snow north of I-66, with sleet and freezing rain DC metro east. 
  • By evening, most precip will turn to freezing rain as upper and near surface temperatures warm to near 32 F -- continuing overnight into the Monday morning commute.
  • We disagree with the low-hazard assessment of this event as currently portrayed by the Sterling VA NWS as of 9:15 AM 2/28. The lack of a posted Hazardous Weather Outlook conveys a false sense of security to the public that a slight amount of freezing rain would not pose a measureable risk of hazardous travel. 
  • The 0.005" of freezing rain which occurred on Sunday morning, January 21 is evidence enough that the next 24-36 hours present an increasing risk of impactful weather to the Mid-Atlantic, as is currently depicted by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.







3:30 AM 2/27 - Seasoned readers may remember the origins of that phrase from the 1970s, but for the rest of us it summarizes the current weather pattern -- and is a clue for what's directly ahead.



FRIDAY - We'll try again for a normal day, but many areas of the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas stretching back to Texas are pulling out from under a thick layer of snow and ice. Icy patches on roadways are likely throughout these regions the next several days. Temps won't make it past 32 F for most in the north, while 40s and 50s return to the south.

THE WEEKEND - More Arctic air returns overnight into Saturday AM, with lows again back near 5-10 F. Even bright sunshine will not be any help as highs stay near 30 F north of Richmond VA.

Though Sunday should be dry with highs breaking 32 F, the headlines may be dominated by yet another coast to coast winter storm to approach by Tuesday. 

NEXT WEEK? As our headline indicates, there is already growing concern for a potentially widespread and multi-day wintry precipitation event to affect a large area of the Eastern U.S. In fact, we were "taken aback" ourselves with the rather high precip probabilities posted in your NWS local forecasts. Why?
  • By noting an already high 70% chance of precipitation that could be rain or snow SIX DAYS OUT is quite the red flag in winter weather forecasting. It's not a lock, but it is worth mentioning so you know we are watching the situation. 
  • Though we're also not "on board" with any specific calls at this time, we can say this: Global models and 6-10 day outlook maps at the Climate Prediction Center have been increasing the potential each day for a large scale event early to middle of next week. 
It's much too early to pin down precip type and timing of course, so consider this just an early heads up before the weekend, and before the hits start a-comin' again.

-The FF Long Range Team



13 comments:

Unknown said...

Yes and the early indications is that we will be on the warm side of the systems and not be getting major snow. This has been the pattern with the models saying storms cut to our west or stay south in the long range. As we get closer to the events hopefully air flow patterns will change to bring us the snow. So sick of mix to rain situations. After last years devastating ice storm in N Maryland I have had enough of ICE. Much rather have rain than ICE.

BioPat said...

I'm with you Mike. A large scale ice event is just not something anyone wants at this point. What I am reading looks like we will be on the warm side of the storm. This still bears watching but every day brings more sunlight thus decreasing the wintry stuff and puts us more in the all liquid format.

kyleZ said...

We had 5 inches on March 3 and 6 inches on March 17 last year I don't think winter is done yet but who knows and we have gotten blizzards well into March before. We might as well have above average snowfall. Plus when we see big warm ups like next week possibly it is usually balanced out with cold but with a big storm remains to be seen.

Westsidehideaway said...

Major outlets are calling for a winter mix tomorrow in Bmore. What's up??

Westsidehideaway said...

Wow. Icy day tomorrow. I guess I'll stay home, be safe and do my taxes:(

Westsidehideaway said...

Hello. Is anyone out there??

kyleZ said...

Hello

NeedaSnowday said...

Just nod if you can hear me… What is Pink Floyd?

BioPat said...

Hello folks, well tomorrow is shaping up to be interesting with an advisory beginning at 8AM. We have lots to do tomorrow so the weather could be a factor. Already quite cloudy after a cold but very sunny day.

Westsidehideaway said...

Whew. I thought I was the only weather freak left. Advisorys are up. Could be a fun day.

Unknown said...

Man rolls over and repeatedly hits snooze button on winter......

kyleZ said...

Yea there was some random clouds that strolled through at about 5 and know their gone should allow for some good cooling tonight hopefully this system gets here a little early so have more snow than ice.

Unknown said...

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz