Sunday, February 15, 2015

Could it be PD 3?

Could it be PD 3?


2:15 PM 2/15 – Our team's latest statement and scenario map for the upcoming Monday into Tuesday Winter Weather potential in the Mid-Atlantic:

OLD MAN WINTER’S NEXT PLAY – After dealing us the snow squalls and the severe wind/cold, the next play is looking like a possible snow event Monday into Tuesday. Yes this is the Tuesday-Wednesday storm we mentioned earlier, but the timeline has accelerated. We have outlined two scenarios we think are possible for this event. If necessary, our snowfall accumulation map will be posted at 5AM Monday morning. 

SYNOPSIS - A low pressure system currently developing over Texas will start to move east tonight. There are two options when it arrives at our entrenched cold air on the east coast. The storm track will determine our impacts. The strength of the high pressure to our northeast will help drive this track. 

SCENARIO A (50%) – The low tracks further north and encroaches into the high pressure to our north, pushing it out to sea. This forces the storm over our extremely cold air here and delivers the largest and highest impact snow storm of the winter. The I-95 corridor could see significant snowfall (4+”) with very cold temperatures throughout, making for a light, powdery snow. Further south, a dangerous sleet/ice/snow event hits the southern Mid-Atlantic. 

SCENARIO B (50%) – In this scenario, the high pressure wins out and drives the storm further south. The low pressure would find a break in the high and go through the middle rather than pushing the whole thing south. This allows an escape route to the south. Light snow would still reach the I-95 corridor, but it would be on par with the magnitude of previous storms this winter season. The heaviest band of snow would be confined further south. 

CAN'T I JUST FLIP A COIN? - Models have been all over the place with this system, flip-flopping every run with huge swings. At this close range to the event, in probability schemes a 50% rating is actually quite high as it represents there is strong enough evidence to suggest that at any given moment in the 24 hour period starting Noon Monday, snow will be likely in the affected region. 

However, we are not going out flag waving here because further changes in the guidance are likely. We will monitor this over the next 15 hours and have another report coming early Monday morning. 

From our perspective, Winter 2014-15 clearly saved all of its big plays for the end of the game. With yesterday’s snow squalls and the brutal cold today reminiscent of last winter, it doesn’t seem like meteorological spring is only 14 days away! Looks like we have a ways to go before that can enter the long range picture.

Winter Stormcast Team: Forecasters Mike N., Connor M., Jason M., Mintong N., Troy A., Jolene W., Advisors Keith K.,and Dr. Pete W., Editor R. Foot

15 comments:

Syracuse1 said...

Please Scenario A!!! LOL

All we want is one GOOD Snow Storm!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Scenario A is at 90% in my book. I like the 6 to 10 idea and it is supported by a blend of guidance. The UKMET and to a lesser extent but very similarly the EURO have led the way with the evolution of the lead vort and its subsequent amplification. HPC prefers the uk/euro blend and I agree. 6 to 10 is a reasonable expectation. Snow ratio will likely be 12 to 15 to 1. 6 to 10 is a conservative expectation in my book but a great starting point as we focus in on the final details.

kyleZ said...

I know everyone is focused on the snow which is awesome and I hope your right Andy but the temperatures Thursday night look nasty the euro is showing -10 to -15 .

kyleZ said...

Winter storm watches up Andy like you said!!!

notsofreestate said...

Another vote for Scenario A!!!!!!!

Westsidehideaway said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Westsidehideaway said...

Hoping for A here in West Bmore

Westsidehideaway said...

Tony Pann is saying the storm center will be south of Bmore but the City still getting 6" of snow.

River Rat said...

6"+ is looking real good!! I like the flow that set up to bring this storm in our direction...This storm could still flatten-out but I don't think it will. The next 12 hours will be very telling....(Oh, is that OK Mike??? Tryin' not to ruffle the master's feathers) lol!!

JoshinMD said...

C'mon scenario A. But don't shift to far north and dry slot us.

JoshinMD said...

C'mon scenario A. But don't shift to far north and dry slot us.

Westsidehideaway said...

Justin Berk also has it centered south of Bmore with 4-6 in the City.

notsofreestate said...

Latest NWS discussion indicates a shift north. :D

Westsidehideaway said...

Hi Freestate. Pann is sticking to the storm being centered south of Bmore. I'm no expert or amature meteorologist but the radar looks like it could head pretty south with Bmore on the northern edge. Just my two cents worth. Hope I'm wrong.

Unknown said...

What's an 0Z / 7-8PM reversal?