Thursday, February 26, 2015

Southern Snow Surprise


Southern Snow Surprise...


3:15 AM 2/26 - PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING VIRGINIA, REACHING DC METRO, AND TO BALTIMORE METRO BY 5 AM, PA LINE BETWEEN 5-6 AM IF NOT SOONER.
  • Snow will fall rapidly and accumulate quickly due to cold surfaces. Up to 1" an hour is possible between 6 and 8 AM from the I-66 corridor to the I-95 corridor, including northern and central Maryland. Accumulation is expected to reach southern PA counties.


1:10 PM EST 2/25 - The climbing and expanding NWS Warnings, Watches and Advisories associated with the southern winter storm has no doubt set many to wondering about this system:
  • How much farther north might this storm track go?
  • Is there any potential for this system or "over or under" perform, and leave (or take away) a bigger surprise than current;y expected? 
We will address these two issues in the team statement below. We are not expecting a major snowstorm for the central and northern Mid-Atlantic, as most of the action should stay "south of DC" and centered on the Richmond metro area to the eastern shore. However, the problematic timing of this next potential event presents concern for the AM commute.




SYNOPSIS - The widespread winter storm which has been impacting the Deep South with extensive snow and ice will generally be kept to the south of the central Maryland region. 
  • However, we won't avoid seeing some snow from it. Tonight, Lows in the Mid-Atlantic will fall to the mid 20s overnight with increasing clouds ahead of the storm system passing by late. 
  • Precipitation on the northern edge of the system may bring light accumulations early Thursday morning. Though the Baltimore metro region will be on the periphery of the significant snow, it is worth mentioning as this system could cause some travel problems in the AM hours. 
  • A general rule with this event: The further south your location in the region, the more likely you are to see accumulating snow.
TIMING - Light snow in the metro area is expected by 3 AM Thursday, ending by 10 AM Thursday. 



ACCUMULATIONS - South of DC/Baltimore, we expect 1-2" of snow, with higher amounts near and east of the DC metro region. For Northern MD counties that border PA, snowfall will be lighter the farther your location is from the system. A dusting (or "Coating" up to 1" is possible.) 



HAZARDS - The timing (of course) during the AM rush will make for some difficult travel, especially south of the metros. Use caution on the roads if snow is falling, and give yourself a little extra time to get to work. Those north will have it a little easier, but if the storm trends just a little bit north, that could change. 



BUST POTENTIALS - What can go wrong with this storm? Unlike the last storm, the temperatures don't really matter much with this one. It's all about the track of the storm and extent of the precipitation field. 

  • THE BIG KAHUNA (20%): The computer model guidance has been trending significantly further north with each run lately. If this continues and the storm ends up even further north of where we expect, central MD isn't just on the fringes anymore. The excess moisture easily overcomes the dry air in place. This scenario could bring easily a significant snow south of the metros and accumulating snow to the north. Travel would be heavily impacted Thursday morning in this scenario. 

  • THE BUMMED BACHATA (15%): On the other hand, if the northerly trend in guidance abruptly reverses and the storm ends up south of expectations, northern MD ends up receiving no snow, while just a dusting reaching those south of the metros. This scenario would occur with a more southerly track of the low, or if the northern extent of the precipitation field doesn't reach as far as we expect. 

The situation with this storm could rapidly change (because it has been already), so stay with us for updates! We will keep you informed of the latest information.



(Map and Statement by Foreacaster Mike, Analysis and Forecasts by the Winter Stormcast Team

27 comments:

kyleZ said...

For the big kahuna!!!!!!!

kyleZ said...

This storm keeps creeping north but It still needs to go a little farther holding out hope for another surprise tommorow morning.

kristia35 said...

Kahuna time! Keep wishing it north. 100-200 miles and we are in the game.

Unknown said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Morpheus said...

This second half of winter seems to be shaping up as little storms for lowlanders...another 4-6 inches, I'll take it! Commmmmme on north!

kyleZ said...

Pretty good slug of moisture down south hopefully it keeps on coming north!!

NeedaSnowday said...

Keep moving N.O.R.T.H!!!

kyleZ said...

That clipper in Illinois looks like it's gonna join forces with this system will that affect the storm who knows but it looks like it's going right into it maybe that'll add some more moisture. One can hope!

Unknown said...

When the two collide they will explode and we will be in the dry slot.

kyleZ said...

Best forecast yet mike. That sums up the whole winter in Maryland.

Butch Dynomite said...

I don't think he is joking

Morpheus said...

I am getting excited...from JB post at 8:50 "Here is my final call for snowfall but there still may be some upside potential across the US 50/301 corridor." That's me...I feel like the king of the weeny storms.

kyleZ said...

They got a foot of snow in Alabama and we can barely get ten inches man this is not our wanted.

NeedaSnowday said...

HoCo 2 hour delay....

Amy said...

is it actually snowing any where?

NeedaSnowday said...

Funny you ask Amy... I just looked at CHART road video cameras.. Coming down in several places at a moderate clip?!

Amy said...

Of all the days. I'm taking a half day sub day today and full tomorrow. Most everything is done but I still need to go in and finish it up, leave by 11am, and hope they don't change the delay to a closing. We still solid for 1-2 incheS? The storm does not appear to be north enough this morning to really push up the totals

Amy said...

Of all the days. I'm taking a half day sub day today and full tomorrow. Most everything is done but I still need to go in and finish it up, leave by 11am, and hope they don't change the delay to a closing. We still solid for 1-2 incheS? The storm does not appear to be north enough this morning to really push up the totals

BioPat said...

This is still a southern storm. Although the timing of the storm's arrival has school's on a delay. I still don't see Baltimore getting any significant accumulation from this. On the other hand I need to call our lawn service to make sure the lot is cleared at my OC home where they are expecting 8".
Sunday evening through the middle of next week bears close attention. Lots of possibilities for more disruptive conditions.

BioPat said...

OK, I expected Howard County to close, but no way did I expect Baltimore County to close; I am shocked!! Oh well, there goes our March 19th holiday!

BioPat said...

Well I just finished posting my snow day assignments for all my classes. This has been a difficult quarter to teach with all the interruptions. Thanks goodness for technology and the ability to reach out to students outside of the classroom.
Still looking at next week beginning Sunday and will plan accordingly. I have jury duty scheduled Monday, maybe it will be cancelled??

Anonymous said...

What dry slot? Lol, jk. Happy snow day everybody!

Morpheus said...

2 inches on the ground, should get one more I think...my sons school was delayed and then closed. was hoping for a bit more of a northern push. It is nice to have a daytime snow - beautiful!

Morpheus said...

3 inches and I was thinking we might break 4 but as I sat down to write this the clouds went form dark to bright...still snowing but trialing off. It's a happy wee little snow.

Now what about next week...Tue, wed...looked like possible big dump of snow, now rain for this area as temperature's have been adjusted. Thoughts about the possibility? Artic are giving way?

Morpheus said...

40 degrees out - easy come, easy go...any talk of snow?

kyleZ said...

Yea the sun angle is getting higher and the days longer as we get closer to spring it will be tough to get stick age during the day.

Unknown said...

http://meteocentre.com/models/get_panel.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=PT&map=na&lang=en&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest



Type all that in your browser and see for yourself. Not much to look forward to. After all this wasted cold weather, I am done with this winter and wanting longer days and warmer weather.