Saturday, February 21, 2015

White and Wintry Weekend

 White* & Wintry Weekend


11:10 PM 2/21 - (Forecaster Mike from the Central Maryland Team) If you don't need to go out on the roads this evening, DON'T DRIVE! The roads are very bad and getting worse. If you can, stay off to give the road crews room to work. Temperatures are colder than modeled, but the change over to sleet and freezing rain is occurring as expected. This will actually only make the roads worse. 
  • What precipitation type are you seeing now? In College Park, MD I am observing freezing rain with a temperature of 28ΒΊ. That is very very cold for freezing rain. 
  • OVERNIGHT - Mixed precipitation will slowly move north over the next few hours, and eventually switch to some plain rain around 10 PM-1 AM from south to north, but most of the precip will be out at that point. 
  • SUNDAY - Expected to be above freezing, so road conditions should gradually improve very late tonight and through the day. Stay safe out there!
6:10 PM 2/21 - SLEET ON THE WAY - OR NOT? Track the latest precip changes in this close up radar of the region from Intellicast. The real question is-- should you clear now or wait? 
  • If you clear the car now- the sleet and freezing rain collect ON your car, instead of on top of the snow. Our thought is to wait until it's all done, clear your walks first. Then clear cars last. Why? Because letting the sleet and ice collect on top of the snow, which absorbs and melts it, allowing the snowpack to get clumpy and then you can push it off in big chunks.
  • What are your approaches to clearing your car, walks or driveway in a "multi-precipitation event?"  We always welcome new perspectives on winter weather management.


2:20 PM 2/21 - IS THE BIG KAHUNA BACK? Heavy bands of snow are now moving through the DC/Baltimore metro areas for the next 2-3 hours, which will feature the highest snowfall rates of the entire event. If you haven't seen the "bucket dump" yet, get ready-- it's coming!
  • Our forecasters reported seeing sleet in local obs from northern and central Virginia, which indicates warmer air is working over the mountains. 
  • Any "changeover" to sleet may be preceded by very large, rapidly falling snowflakes, suggesting a slug of high moisture content has worked into the mid-levels. 
  • Track the lulls and bands in this useful, multi-feature radar from the College of DuPage for Sterling VA (scroll to right side of image for a US radar site map pullout)
SNOW TOTALS RISING? Short range models also print out up to 0.50" of liquid is still in the pipeline for areas currently receiving snow. That means another 2-4" is possible, and could easily bring all totals at least 2" above our earlier forecasts of 3-5" for I-95 south and east (to 5-7") and for N & W areas, what was 5-8" may end up as 7-9" or even 10". The potential for this was first outlined Friday afternoon in our Bachata vs. Kahuna overview in Part 2 below.


REGIONAL RADAR LINK FROM INTELLICAST.COM

10:00 AM 2/21 - UPDATE: Take note of our changed headline from "Wet" to "White" to account for potential that along and west  of the I-95 corridor, indications are a changeover to sleet or freezing rain may be delayed or curtailed, thus increasing the possibility of higher snow totals by 1-2". In that case, our projections for 5-8" in southern PA, western MD and northwest of the Baltimore/DC metro areas could reach 6-9" where precip remains all snow the longest. In areas south and east of I-95, a changeover to sleet and freezing rain is still expected after 9 PM tonight.
  • RECENT SHORT RANGE COMPUTER  MODELS as of 9:00 AM hinting at higher totals in areas north and west of the DC-Baltimore metro, as well as Central & Northern Virginia
  • WINTER STORM WARNINGS EXTEND FROM TENNESSEE VALLEY NORTH AND EAST TO CENTRAL & NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC to NEW ENGLAND
  • SNOWFALL OF 4-8" - LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 10" OR MORE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. 3-6" IN METRO AREAS OF BALTIMORE/DC/PHILADELPHIA
  • SNOWFALL RATES OF 1" AN HOUR AT TIMES BETWEEN 10 AM AND 4 PM WITH LOW VISIBILITY AND SNOW-COVERED ROADS LIKELY.


7:15 AM 2/21 - PART 1 STORM OVERVIEW / PRECIPITATION FORECAST MAP


TODAY: Snow arriving east of I-81 by mid morning, reaching southern PA and central Maryland by 10 AM. Accumulation will begin right away, continuing into Saturday night.
  • HEAVIEST SNOW for the Baltimore and Washington metro areas should occur between 11 10 AM and 4 PM today. Snowfall rates could occasionally reach 1" an hour, creating hazardous travel conditions as roads will become quickly snow-covered. 
  • SNOWFALL of 3-5" along the I-95 corridor, with higher amounts possible if there is less influence from a dry slot later today, and a delay in the changeover to sleet/freezing rain in areas east of I-83. West of I-83 and north of I-70, snowfall of 5-8" is expected. 
TONIGHTSnow may change to sleet and freezing rain in the southern Mid-Atlantic, as well as in DC and Baltimore, but remain snow/sleet mixed in northern areas longer. Up to 0.10" of ice is expected by Sunday morning.


SUNDAY: Brief periods of rain and temperatures warming slightly above 32 F may allow some of the snowpack to melt. RAIN THEN REFREEZING: However with a generally frozen ground surface, we do not expect much of the rain to be absorbed. Any melting snow will quickly refreeze Sunday night as temperatures drop below 20 F region wide.

9:15 PM EST 2/20 - PART 2: WINTER STORM OVERVIEW & BUST SCENARIOS - This next winter storm is already proving to be the most complicated and unusual forecasts thus far this season. of the season thus far. To account for this concern, we want present the "Bust Factors" in this separate section due to several complex issues in play which sometimes do not present well on computer models. 


Here's the situation: This storm occurring at any other time this winter would more likely be rain. However, with a ridiculously cold air mass in place, the outcome this time is skewing the region toward snow. With that said, there are two ways our forecast could be wrong, in one direction or the other

BACHATA BUNGLE – (20% Chance) In Bachata Scenario A, this storm performs a little “bachata” on us if it ends up stronger than expected and is more effective at warming the atmospheric profile. 
  • Warm air cuts in earlier than expected, and a significant snow is avoided. Heavier precipitation rates from the warmer upper levels of the atmosphere warm the ground and limit the sleet/ice potential as well. 
  • This outcome could unfold if the slug of moisture goes northwest, then the precipitation doesn’t reach us until we have already warmed up. 
In Bachata Scenario B - we are hit by a repeat of the setup that previously led to our correct "low end of the range" forecast for the President's Day Snow: If dry air evaporates out some of the moisture, thus preventing widespread significant snow. Lower ratios prevent the front “thump” of snow from being significant.

KING KAHUNA - (20% Chance): We call this "King" because some of the computer models, even at this short range, are showing all kinds of wild snowfall possibilities. Some had 7-10" for large parts of the Mid-Atlantic, including the I-95 corridor. We're not waiting for the models to do the thinking for us, we're making sure we don't over-rely on one type of scenario and fail to account for the input from others.
  • In a Kahuna Scenario - the moisture tracks slightly south and east where we expect it to. The heaviest precipitation comes in ahead of the warmup, delivering a quick thump of 4-6" of snow Saturday afternoon and evening in the metro areas, with some totals north and west of the cities surpassing our forecast with widespread amounts of 6 or more inches. 
BOTTOM LINE QUESTION: How much of the moisture we see projected here for the next 24 hours is SNOW, how much turns to SLEET or FREEZING RAIN, and how much is left over as RAIN? 

  • HIGH PROBABILITY (70% OR MORE) of precipitation as all snow from 10 AM to 7 PM Saturday, followed by a change to sleet then freezing rain as the Low nears the region.
  • MEDIUM PROBABILITY (40%) that snow may last a few hours longer on Saturday night.
  • LOW PROBABILITY (10%) that snow stops sooner than expected and changes to rain.


-Forecasters Foot, Meteo Mike Natoli and the Winter Stormcast Team

129 comments:

Westsidehideaway said...

Okay. Here we go. Looks like a lot to consider. Should be fun to watch it play out. Hoping for the Kahuna!!!

BioPat said...

I just listened to Tasselmeyer and also read Foot's forecast possibilities. I know some are still calling for the warm air to drift in sometime tomorrow evening but I still stand by the extremely cold surface temperature waging a battle and winning. This winter has been so difficult to forecast for the mid-Atlantic you may as well throw out the models and go with gut instinct.
I for one and choosing to stay with visceral instinct and convinced my husband to make his snow vegetable soup. Hit the grocery store for soup bones and veggies; I'm ready.

Butch Dynomite said...

Yeah man...hope you're all getting stocked ...should at least be fun to watch and speculate....I know this is flawed reason ing but at some point we are due....right!?

Unknown said...

Here is my forecast...1-3 2-4 3-6 4-6 4-8 6-10 6-12 8-12 5-13 12-16. The precip will start as snow. It may or may not change to sleet, freezing rain or rain. It may snow then sleet. It may sleet and snow. It may sleet and freezing rain. It may sleet then change to freezing rain. It may snow sleet and freezing rain and change to rain. It may snow then sleet then change back to snow then change to freezing rain then back to snow then to sleet then rain then snow then sleet then freezing rain.

Indeed I have lost my mind....

JoshinMD said...

I am calling for a 100% chance of weather.

JoshinMD said...

I am calling for a 100% chance of weather.

Westsidehideaway said...

I'm calling it officially Happy Hour and mixing up a Tito's dry Martini!!

Flame said...

Homer Simpson : stupid Smarch weather! This may be what we are going to experience.

MH5150 said...

I will let you know tomorrow night what its gonna be

MH5150 said...

I will let you know tomorrow night what its gonna be

Butch Dynomite said...

Titos is the real deal.

Butch Dynomite said...

Prediction: snow starts early say 9 ish in central MD..but as virga...just as it looks like moisturewill finally overtake cold dry air...strange dry slot over just participants on this blog ...meanwhile .....coastal redevelopment@!!! But immediately to our east..wah wah .Parkville revives .01 amount of frozen precip that defies identification ... Boston gets another six inches.

kyleZ said...

Butch with the best prediction I've seen so far with the 100% chance of dry slot sounds like a potent stormπŸ˜‰

Morpheus said...

I am with you BP. I have been think over the past few days - why should this storm be any different...drift 50 Miles east and we maybe in for more of the white then the wet side. Maybe it is wishcasting on my part, but it would keep with the pattern of even the short range models not being able to nail a single track this season.

p.s. - with the 6 inches we got in the last storm - the ATV plow was awesome! Soooo much more fun than the snow blower (which I sold today through my friend crags website, never going back.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

I think most of us around baltimore wake up to a WINTER STORM WARNING. This looks like a general 4 to 8 event with someone seeing 10 inches in Carroll, northern Baltimore, or York County PA. Enjoy our largest storm of the season. I'm sure it will still surprise, but it has been an interesting one to track!

Amy said...

No storm warning. NWS is calling for mixing by 3pm. This seems overly optimistic on their part that warming will occur enough by then to kick off the snow machine. It's 8 degrees right now. I'm more worried about the -2 dewpoint.

kyleZ said...

Winter storm warnings for harford, Baltimore, Howard, Cecil, Montgomery, and Baltimore city but York county does not have one? They are surrounded by warnings it doesn't make much sense.

Westsidehideaway said...

It is getting quite cloudy here in West Baltimore now after a nice partly sunny morning. Here it comes!!

Morpheus said...

19 degrees in Bowie...Do I smell rain. :-?

NeedaSnowday said...

Hmmm, Morph my new snowblower is STILL in the box... I feel like I am gonna break into song, yanno a spoof-like one from SNL, performed by Timberlake and Samberg!

Morpheus said...

Needa if your are north of 95 you might need a box cutter fir that blower...now how to make that into one of those funny man songs, hummm. Needa get your blower, Needa get your blower, Needa get you blower (to the tune of Annie get your gun.) ok I will keep my day job.

Morpheus said...

21 degrees now and rising...2 degrees in 30 minutes. at this rate we will be above freezing in a little over 2 and an half hours or so.

BioPat said...

Just ran out to fuel up the cars at 14F here in Catonsville. Getting very cloudy so that any sun is obscured. As dry as it is I expect any precip will start as virga the switch over once the air is saturated with moisture. I think Berk's 6"+ will prove to be the most accurate forecast for sw Baltimore.

NeedaSnowday said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Unknown said...

Sticking in Frederick. Started about 30 minutes ago. Grocery stores were a mad house. Hunkering in!

NeedaSnowday said...

Great video camera shots ....deleted the first link because it went on for like six pages...

http://www.chart.state.md.us. > interactive map > video cameras ... Frederick looks white!!

ravensbbr said...

Still alive here in NE CC. Thanks for well wishes. Coming down, starting to stick, here's to a fun 24 hours here in the hinterlands!

Amy said...

I feel ya Morph. Up 10 degrees in 2.5 hours here in pasadena. Still hoping the ground freeze works in my favor.

Morpheus said...

Amy - I think this one is for the highlanders. I This the last storm will be the big one for the year in my neck of the burbs. I would love to be wrong...25 degrees and climbing.

Unknown said...

White out here in CC. Coming down like a boss. 14* and blowin.

Morpheus said...

Glad to hear your are still kicking Ravensbbr.

kyleZ said...

It has gone from 1 degree to 21 since midnight here in harford I think we are toast plus the sun is shining through the clouds enjoy this one highlanders atleast someone will get hammered

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Someone in Carroll, Harford, Northern Baltimore, or Southern York/ Lancaster circle is gong to see a foot from this. Nice sneaky event!

Unknown said...

22 here just south of Aberdeen. No snow yet!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Heavy snow, fresh 1/4 in 30 minutes and snow blowing sideways.

Detritus Effluvium said...

As of 11 AM, no snow falling in Cecil County near Chesapeake City. Temperature = 24˚. Overcast - Wind 3 MPH ESE.

Morpheus said...

Andy - I will match that foot with the inch I will get...I am with Kyle hoping for a foot some where in Maryland!

Morpheus said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Morpheus said...

26 degrees and I spotted one flurry. :-)

Butch Dynomite said...

Small but numerous flakes swirlling around in Parkville...temp 20

Morpheus said...

Snow started (light) about 10 minutes ago. Interesting the temp. dropped about 4 tenths of a degree at onset and is now holding steady at 25.7. Snow pulling down some of the colder air aloft?

James said...

I'm playing in Lancaster Symphony tonight and you guys think we'll get a foot of snow?! Yowza!

Westsidehideaway said...

Snowing hard in West Baltimore at noon. Close to a half inch. Roads are covered.

Unknown said...

Holding at 16 in manchester and snowing like a beast.

Morpheus said...

Other folks are reporting wind - really still out there, snow has picked up. Down another 2 tenths of a degree...25.5. I like this direction. Justin B. indicating this might be an over achiever (in cold sustainability I guess.) Although if we get an inch an hour till the 4 pm cut over in my area...4 inches, but the sleet/rain has to reduce that in the end.

Flame said...

Falling hard in Greenbelt. Snow looks very wet, very different than one last weekend when the snow were very dry. This one will stick and accumulate quickly. I note that the forecasted high had dropped steadily, and is now below freezing. Given how quickly this storm is moving...no chance for turn over to rain?

ravensbbr said...

Just...puking snow up here now. I would take a pic to show...but just imagine the inside of a ping-pong ball, same thing... :-P

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Near whiteout conditions with the wind gusts. Rally remarkable event. Hard to measure with all the blowing. Probably closing in on 2 inches and pouring snow.

EC Brian said...

Very fine, but very dense snow in Ellicott City. Easily an inch, maybe two.

Amy said...

20 degrees in Pasadena, windchill feels like 13. Snowfall rate has increased quite a bit in the last 45 minutes and flake size has increased as well. Afraid to feel hopeful that the change over won't happen with these temps. ...

Morpheus said...

Flakes getting larger and more intense, even as temp. is dropping (25.2). Still no wind to speak of, drive way and road outside covered - maybe half and inch.

Westsidehideaway said...

Traffic down to a halt in West Bmore. Coming down hard. Quite impressive.

Morpheus said...

Going out to play in the snow with my son, see if we can get a little sledding in incase we loose snow later(Kept about 4 inches from the last storm).

Unknown said...

BBR good to see you posting! Trust you feel better. Artic air dammed up in the area will be hard to shove aside. Like Andy said, amazing event.

ravensbbr said...

Mike, Morph, thanks, doing much better. Going to have to now figure out how to get the starter cord back on the the John Deere. (thought I wouldn't have to worry about fixing that one until November

#powderhoundproblems :D

BioPat said...

Just saw that snow may reach 8" at BI before switching over after 8 om this evening -IF it occurs at that time. Currently snowing heavily in Catonsville which started about 11:15 am and we now have about 2.5" on the ground of fresh powder. If this rate keeps up we will easily have 8"+ before this switches over sometime after dark.
My daughter is at work at UA in Pasadena and no telling when they will decide to close. I'm glad most of her trip is Beltway as long as she takes her time and uses her head. Had to say with the 20 something group just no patience!
Now we'll have to wait and see when the forecasts will be updated via media.

Westsidehideaway said...

If the cold holds we have a Kahuna on our hands. Radar shows a lot of moisture on the way. Now quite a whiteout here in West Baltimore, but close. No plows yet. Busses have stopped running.

Morpheus said...

Up a few tenths...25.3 and in a dryish slot. Ok going out to sled for real this time.

Amy said...

BioPat, I was there around 11am.Got my new shoes home and almost got it to take them fire a year run then noticed how much the snow had picked up. She's nice and close to the beltway. I will say aaco usually does a good job with their roads. If she waited on someone who took forever to decide on shoes, that was me ;-)

Amy said...

BioPat, I was there around 11am.Got my new shoes home and almost got it to take them fire a year run then noticed how much the snow had picked up. She's nice and close to the beltway. I will say aaco usually does a good job with their roads. If she waited on someone who took forever to decide on shoes, that was me ;-)

Amy said...

#$!% auto correct.

Amy said...

#$!% auto correct.

kyleZ said...

Really coming down hard!!! Probably closing in on 3.5-4 inches

Westsidehideaway said...

3 3/4 inches in West Bmore at 2pm. If we have 6 more hours of this until changeover to sleet, we have one to really talk about.

kyleZ said...

Yea west side this cold dome is holding strong hopefully it holds on for mostly snow and not ice.

Westsidehideaway said...

Hi Everyone. Here is my snow total prediction for West Baltimore. Based on current pile up rate and radar, I'll predict 9 inches here. Okay. Your turn!!!

BioPat said...

Amy I hope u like your new shoes and that u were treated well perhaps by my daughter since shoes are her specialty. I think it may be awhile before u get a chance to wear those new shoes outside. Thanks for the reassurance on roads, she's scheduled until 5:30 hope they close before then but she also needs the hours.
Snowing like crazy in Catonsville and about 4" on the ground. Temp at my home is showing 16*. JB just upped his snow map and timeline to a early morning changeover to freezing rain after about 10" of snow.

Amy said...

Further reassurance. I'd be surprised if we are at 3" yet. I'd say closer to 2-2.5.

Foot's Forecast said...

Special shout out of thanks to the Carroll County Times for their interview of our Chief Communications Officer, Keith Krichinsky in Hampstead and the wonderfully written article from Friday afternoon that summed up the storm situation perfectly!

Take a look:
http://touch.carrollcountytimes.com/#section/-1/article/p2p-82878025/

kyleZ said...

Up to 5.5 in harford

Westsidehideaway said...

5 3/4" in West Bmore at 3:00. Bigger flakes now. I still say we end up with. 9" here.

Wendy Crowe said...

So funny that Northern AA County only has a Winter Weather Advisory from the NWS. Ground truth is telling a different story! LOL!

Amy said...

Pretty sure that change over to sleet looks like fluffy white snow! Go baby go.

Amy said...

Pretty sure that change over to sleet looks like fluffy white snow! Go baby go.

Westsidehideaway said...

Looks like the cold over Baltimore is holding strong at 4pm. Loads of moisture on the way.

Unknown said...

Amy---- love how you think:-)

NeedaSnowday said...

Every road in state is a CF! Listen to wbal... Insane! BP hope your daughter is coming home soon!!

Morpheus said...

Just got in from sledding - had a great time, just enough moisture to really get going on a tube. Last storm was too dry and powdery - would not pack down. really coming down over the past hour...may be 2.5 inches on top of the 4 left from last go around. Temp. rising though 28.6 degrees...:-/

Westsidehideaway said...

Just saw a burst of freezing stuff show up in Southern Maryland on the radar. Not sure if freezing stuff on top if this snow is such a good idea.

Amy said...

Somehow AACO still isn't under a warning. I'd beg to differ. It slowed up for about half an hour and now it's just poring snow again. We've had at least 4" and it shows no signs of slowing. Wake up NWS.

Adam Herb said...

My wife is stuck off the 83 exit at Northern Parkway for 3 hours now! Just sitting still. Nobody can go anywhere. She says the cops are there, but things are still at a standstill... her car is fine in the snow, it's just gridlock in all directions. I don't suppose has anyone has any ideas?? She is less than a mile from home... she could walk, but can't leave her car unattended!

Butch Dynomite said...

Sometimes it goes the other way too... Sorry to watch the cars struggle to get up our little hill. My girl And I might go see if the bar down the hill is still open. otherwise Gonna light the fire .

NeedaSnowday said...

Jfx northbound totally shut down... Listen to wbal radio!

Plus this twitter account!

@JimWBALTraffic: Confirmed by @wbalradio: NORTHBOUND JFX is CLOSED at Fayette St to allow for a snow plow operation #mdtraffic

Unknown said...

Adam Herb, how about you go hang out with her and take her some food. That's the obvious answer.

Unknown said...

Winter Storm Warning extended to Anne Arundel

kyleZ said...

Gotta be about 7 or 8 inches inches or above here took a while to shovel and it's still coming down hard and temp is holding steady so far.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Great snow event no doubt! Been chopping wood and eating Manwich sandwiches like they are popcorn shrimp at an all you can eat buffet on social security paycheck Friday. Hard to measure but based on nearby official spotter reports we have 6 inches and it looks every bit of that with all of the blowing. Heavy snow falling again. Would be surprised if we finish with less than 10.

notsofreestate said...

Adam, that happened to a friend of mine a couple of years ago when we had the snow that shut down 83N. After she had been stuck for hours, her husband drove down Falls Road, parked his car somewhere around NPkwy, walked to her car and got her. They left her car on the shoulder, walked back to his car, and drove home.

They shoveled out her car the next day, and she drove it home after the storm was over.

Good luck!

Westsidehideaway said...

There was a short break a while ago and now the snow is cranking up again. Radar still looks good. Time for a cocktail!!

ravensbbr said...

First round of snowthrowing...nope. Too cold and too much fun playing snow football and sampling neighbor's latest IPA endeavor.

It'll be warm(er) tomorrow. Be nice to turn wrenches on the Deere in maybe even above freezing temps.

BioPat said...

Just shoveled and also used snow blower to clear about 9" of snow from the driveway and clear a spot for daughter's arrival home from Pasadena. The snow is light but there's a lot to move. Don't want to take this down completely so will allow snow to fill back in to protect from sleet and freezing rain later.
Andy I agree we'll be seeing 10" and probably more before its over. So "Needa" have you unpacked that blower yet??

Adam Herb said...

She was finally able to get onto falls Road and is going to park somewhere and we're going to meet halfway and walk.

Driving to her doesn't really work b/c there is so much gridlock.

Amy said...

Glad to hear she is safe and headed home. Scary being stuc on a road and frustrating when you're so close to home. A hot toddy might be in the works?

Wisconsin Native said...

The National Weather Service finally issued a Winter Storm Warning for AA County. Nowcasting at it's finest. Nice relaxing Saturday clearing out all the snow so when the ice comes it melts tomorrow morning. Inches of compacted freezing snow with ice underneath would be worse on my back than this wonderful fluff.

BioPat said...

BTW, I just know Mr. Tasselemyer was off with his snowcast (see earlier posts). I understand the need to be a bit shy with the past events this winter but this time.....

NeedaSnowday said...

Haha, BP... Still in the box... Hubby took the trusty shovel and cleared sidewalks?! Eventually he will decide to unpack and use it! πŸ˜‹

Good job Adam!

BioPat said...

Got that snow vegetable soup on the stove and the house smells great! Some times you just have to go with your gut thoughts.

Thanks Amy for checking in, and hope your little one can enjoy the snow - at least looking out a window!

Flame said...

Fat flakes in Greenbelt. Temps still at 25 to 27.

4 to 5 inches so far.

Julee said...

So as I said earlier, when they predict a big snow, as on Monday into Tuesday, we get bupkis. When they tell us 1 - 2 inches ... LOOK OUT! WHOMPED!
Must be 8 or 9 inches here and I'm stuck in bed with the flu. WHERE is the justice People?????

p.s. I am not a robot.

BioPat said...

Be careful Adam! I'm hoping my daughter makes it up the hill on our street or at least tries to come down the hill, 10 minutes ago she was 2 exits away on the Beltway but the most difficult part is once she gets off the Beltway; it's only a little over a mile but it's all uphill.
Needa, no doubt snow is light today, however you may want to finish up tomorrow with that blower.
Andy glad you finally got a storm to enjoy that manwich! Love your prose today; I know you've been saving it all winter!

kyleZ said...

Pouring snow in harford probably 9inches and temp at 23 95 north of white marsh is terrible my father is stuck on there he says it is a parking lot with about 10 inches in between lanes

BioPat said...

Ahh, sorry to hear you're ill Julee. That explains your absence from the banter today. Lots of fluids and rest, hope you feel better soon!

Amy said...

At 10 months old we will see what she thinks when I suit her up if there's any left tomorrow. She's already gotten a ride in the jogging stroller to watch her older brother sled. All tucked in warm in the house now. Once the girl goes to bed at 615, break out the chili, cornbread waffles and beer.

BioPat said...

Sounds good to me Amy!

Amy said...

At 10 months old we will see what she thinks when I suit her up if there's any left tomorrow. She's already gotten a ride in the jogging stroller to watch her older brother sled. All tucked in warm in the house now. Once the girl goes to bed at 615, break out the chili, cornbread waffles and beer.

Westsidehideaway said...

The Mrs and I are playing Super Scrabble. I just got my 3RD seven letter score!!!

But she will still win, I'm sure.

Snowing Hard here. Radar still looks good!!

NeedaSnowday said...

Bummer Julee... So glad you are not a robot though! Been getting over a nasty viral infection too... BBR you doing better!?

Pretty awesome winter scene outside.... The pup was bounding through it and loved it! Agreed on Tommy T BP... He is usually pretty accurate!

Not looking forward to any ice accumulation later on tonight! Eek!😬⛄️❄️

Westsidehideaway said...

Breaking News.

Sleet/freezing rain/snowing on West Baltimore.

Julee said...

Thank you for the well wishes, Usual Suspects. Looks like no snow clearing for ME tomorrow. I had some really GOOD ideas for out-of-the-box "snowmen" too.
😝
Stay safe everyone!

Al DeRemigis said...

12" and counting in western Howard County!!

Flame said...

Turnover was very fast. Big flakes for only 30 minutes before sleet/freezing rain started.

But that was a heck of a snowstorm. This kind is what i have been looking forward to!

Morpheus said...

been raining for about an hour - some ice pellets mixed in. 30.2 degrees and rising. Happy for you highlanders that had the cold and moisture. The 4 inches or so we received will be a heavy mess...

Adam Herb said...

Home, safe and sound... roads are a mess. I don't understand why so many people are out and about. (I know, I know, my wife was one of them, but she was trying to get from DC and got caught off gurad...)

A hot toddy maybe... but after all that, I think a shot of rye will start the night off right, then a couple of double bock cask beers for each of us.

ravensbbr said...

Wow. Just...wow. Conservative estimate puts it at around 12" here in NE CC.

Right down the pipe. Dry slot to the north. NAO be darned on this one. No blocking, no problem. As long as you're right under the flume (and = to or > 1000 ft. ASL):-P

All lowlanders welcome! (...to help shovel tomorrow if I can't get this dang Deere started) Seriously, that company is the worst with customer service. No online help, and the friggin' manual is $25 if you can find one...

ravensbbr said...

Adam, you got the order mixed up on days like today.

1. Assume weather here in MD will suck.
2. Do whatever you think you need to do the day before the crazy begins.
3. Begin the day of the storm with some rye and then chase it with whatever.
4. THEN just stay home :)

Also, Step 3 makes Step 4 a much, much easier choice. :)

J/k, glad she made it home safe.

We finally got one right down the alley this year, me heartys!

A toast! to powderhounds, FF, and all of the Foot Clan gathered here and away! A fine hot toddy, rye, bock, ale, lager, manwich, lemonade, whatever, to all, and to all a good night! :D

Wisconsin Native said...

So here's my reasoning behind keeping up with the snow and shoveling as it comes. I believe the snow being lighter is easier on my back. Secondly, by clearing my car and not letting the snow stick on it I am only going to experience some possible ice. With the fact I won't leave the house until 10AM I would say that the ice will most likely melt and I won't have any work to do on Sunday.

Adam Herb said...

ravensbbr - well said! A toast indeed. Cheers!

Westsidehideaway said...

Sleeting hard here in West Bmore. I have 8" of stuff and counting. I need a short change back to snow to get to the 9" that I predicted. Y'all have fun and stay safe.

Unknown said...

Awesome event. Really surprised from the outlook days ago. Artic super hero won this time. 10-12 here in CC.

Westsidehideaway said...

Sleet/rain here now. I won scrabble. Barely. What a fun day!!

NeedaSnowday said...

Was fun storm... Let's do it again next weekend, m'kay?!😍

BioPat said...

Roads still look pretty bad as we begin to recover from yesterday's storm. Finally got a winter event worth discussing and certainly no disappointments.
Now to convince my husband that heading downtown for Mass today is not a wise choice. he is scheduled to lector and feels obligated in spite of weather conditions. I wish the Archbishop would post something about using good common sense in attending Mass today even though it is the first Sunday of Lent,

Mr. Foot said...

Icy morning greetings all! We are working on a long range overview for posting later this AM. Two questions for the diehard readers here:

1) We are reading in various outlets that many Marylanders felt caught off guard by this event. Although we made consistently daily effort to detail the possibilities, it seems there was a lack of awareness we could be facing a major snow and ice event. Any suggestions on how to handle this differently? (We'll have a new opportunity to test out the ideas for next weekend!)

2) Regarding the comments, about 2 winters ago we tested a new comment feature that was unsuccessful for the same reason. We didn't properly give advance notice of the change. We won't repeat that mistake again.

But we do have one thought-- what about reversing the order of comments so most recent appears first? What do you think? (We could just test it out on ONE post as a trial but not commit to that as permanent unless the readership was in support of the change.)

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Problem was most people only paid attention to winter weather advisory headlines the night before. Warnings were issued late and many do not follow the weather like we do. I told anyone who would listen that this would likely be a very high impact 4-8 inch event that could surprise if the cold air held on longer with higher totals. Even if warm air intruded keeping many closer to 4 inches the ice and freezing rain would still create a travel disaster. Either way it was a high impact weather day coming but most people just remember some weather guy on tv from two days before saying 1-2 inches, then wonder why their car is totaled or they are stuck on the side of a road for 12 hours.

It is important to be weather literate if you travel, and pay close attention. In our region with congested roads etc, even a tiny bit of snow is very high impact. A moderate or heavy event is a travel nightmare. We all knew this would be a high impact event any way you slice the final totals.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

I Obsessed over this one a little the night before and after the 0Z models and trends was confident the cold air would win the battle. My assessment at 2:00 am was:

"I think most of us around baltimore wake up to a WINTER STORM WARNING. This looks like a general 4 to 8 event with someone seeing 10 inches in Carroll, northern Baltimore, or York County PA. Enjoy our largest storm of the season. I'm sure it will still surprise, but it has been an interesting one to track!"

By morning before the storm started the information was out there that this would be a big storm. The NWS was late on issuing WARNINGS, but if you follow Foot's Forecast I think you would have understood that driving was a bad idea and snow totals would win the day.

Flame said...

Andy nailed it. NWS were very late with warnings. In my county, warning never came up until afternoon/evening. In fact, it was advisory on Friday night.

Foots and JB had expressed this correctly, but the mainstream media and NWS had failed to enphasize that it could get really bad. I warned many people as i could, and they were appreciative of it, but i still see some foolhardy friends go out because the forecast that they had heard was not that bad. Back to shoveling extremely heavy snow so my car can move.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

I travel all over MD, on I 83, 97, 695, 295, rt 50 to Cambridge, OC, and Fenwick back to the DC area. Year round I pay attention to the weather and forecasts and adjust my plans as much as I can based on weather. Being stuck on an interstate for 6 to 10 hours is not fun! For me it's not about nailing a forecast, but not getting nailed by one! The weather information is there, it's just about interpreting it and communicating it so that people can make use of it in making travel decisions or plans. Foots forecast is great in laying out the possibilities and letting you decide what the best course of action you should take. I just toss out there my best interpretation of all the available data. Either way our site and weather family here is the best! No agenda, no money, no ego, but we are all about information sharing and education. Mr. Foot and his team do a great job informing the public of what is going on and how it might impact the community.

NeedaSnowday said...

Well said Andy!!

I would also imagine the "boy that cried wolf" syndrome occurred since folks kept hearing about big storms that never materialized.....

As far as comments Rich, it is just as easy to hit Jump to Comments hyperlink and scroll up to what posts you haven't read....

Morpheus said...

Needa- yes next week will be great, please bring more cold so us lowlanders can join the fun.

BP - I could be disappointed, if I did not spend half the day sleigh riding before the rain!

NWS is limited by their own rules and the desire not to over alert, leading people to ignore them. It is a tricky business being in the hazard warning business. It is easy to Monday morning quarterback, that said I am sure they are having after action meeting to review their calls...