Saturday, February 28, 2015

Roaring into March

Roaring Into March

6:30 PM 2/28 - For the winter weary out there, although this next system is not exactly a "storm," it is going to speak volumes about why wintry weather requires adjusting to changing conditions. Failing to do so results in avoidable consequences, the risks of which were widely advertised well in advance.

Although the current NWS advisory map shows "only" Winter Weather Advisories for most of the Mid-Atlantic, we can sum up in two words what we believe conditions will closely resemble: LAST SATURDAY. 


Thus, our forecast and urging to be prepared on Sunday seems a virtual repeat of occurred throughout the region on Saturday 2/21:
  • Cold surface air in the teens and low 20s Sunday morning will allow for moisture overrunning at upper levels to fall as snow for the first 5-6 hours. The snow will stick on contact and create slippery road conditions within an hour.
  • Snow intensity will increase as the day progresses, and more travelers on the roads will confound the situation and hampering road crew efforts to address the snow.
  • Areas where less extensive pre-treatment of roads than otherwise might be expected for a weekday could lead to rapidly deteriorating conditions under 1-3" of snow followed by sleet and freezing rain.
  • The current precipitation and surface map projection for 7 AM Sunday indicates a widespread snow and ice situation affecting much of the Midwest, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states. 

By 1 PM Sunday, the widespread ice and snow is expected in these regions, continuing into the evening hours.


We hope that travelers and those holding Sunday service will make prudent and well-informed decisions whether adjustment to changing conditions is a more prudent action than "staying the course" if "ground truth" clearly presents a hazardous environment to the region by daybreak. Twice this winter, Sunday had an unpleasant outcome for many. We would prefer not to make it three.

Mr. Foot, Forecaster Mike Natoli and the Winter Stormcast Team

45 comments:

Westsidehideaway said...

Well Okay. Here We Go. We have an real live winter weather event on our hands
for tomorrow. I'm stocked and ready. I'm brining chicken parts tonight for deep frying tomorrow as the winter stuff falls. Getting the fireplace ready tonight. Be safe everyone!!

Amy said...

Yikes. I must have fallen asleep at the wheel as I'm getting the house ready to sell. I didn't realize the threat was that serious for tomorrow. The timing is rough for making a decision for services.

Unknown said...

I hope people are paying attention. Foot's is the forecast to trust!

Westsidehideaway said...

Winter is Roaring like Katie Perry!!

kyleZ said...

Forecast for Wednesday went from 60 degrees yesterday to 49 talk so much for a big warm up.

Anonymous said...

So, if you were absolutely forced to be on the road in Baltimore city, what would be the best time: morning, midday, or early afternoon?

Unknown said...

Hey Guys...12:09 AM and it is just ONE DEGREE in Timonium? How could this be, and won't it affect the type of precip for today?

Sinbad said...

At 1 am I also see the NOAA site claims it's one degree outside, but my sheltered patio thermometer tells a different story - about 25 degrees. Granted, mine is not really what you'd call a High Precision Model, but I've been out in 25 degrees and I've been out in 1 degree, and I'm putting my money on the patio thermometer. I was just wearing light pants, a tee, and a thin hoodie. And shoes, of course......

Amy said...

Hoping for an update here soon on the outlook for today, mainly timing of onset and switch from snow to sleet. Also accumulation. Was speed to go to Kent island today, but looking like we might need to reschedule.

Westsidehideaway said...

Cloudy but no precip at 6:45am in West Baltimore. Temp at the airport is 19 degrees. Checking the news outlets now to see what they are saying. Have a good one today.

Westsidehideaway said...

Radar show snow coming into Carroll County. Maryland Transport folks are asking folks to stay off the roads. WBAL is saying snow till noon, freezing rain from noon to midnight, then rain till early tomorrow morning.

Unknown said...

Not a powderhound storm. Hopefully I can get to Church of the Open Door in Westminster Md for morning and evening services today. They likely won't be running the buses with ice forecast so I will not be able to teach my Sunday School class lesson. Lousey good for nuttin ice.

BioPat said...

Very cloudy and clouds so low the jets muffled engines can be heard for miles away from BWI. This is not looking to be a good weather day but no allowances for debate we must get to Mass and an event immediately afterward as part of a fund raiser.
Daughter has to work at UA 1 - 6 and after last week's fiasco getting home hopefully will remember the best route to home is not the double hills found on Academy and Mt de Sales roads. Perhaps a gentle reminder will help her recall last Saturday's events and make a wise decision on her route.
In spite of turning over to rain during the early morning hours if we get .25" of ice schools could be doomed for an on time start for Monday. What will we ever do once we have they have to go to school for a full week some time in the not too distant future?

Towson Resident said...

Question for the Foot Team. I am traveling from Baltimore to Lexington VA today (3/1). Is there a window of time where roads will be at there best?

Butch Dynomite said...

woke up to light snow in parkville. looks like an interesting day.

Westsidehideaway said...

Nice light snow coming down now in West Bmore. The Mrs. and I are doing our taxes today. What Fun!!!

I too hear the planes flying low headed to BWI Marshall.

Unknown said...

Sleeting already in the highlands. What a waste.

Amy said...

Wishing I hadn't canceled my plans... but the sleet stI'll makes for a slippery drive.

Anonymous said...

Wondering about schools tomorrow...

Will the path of this storm affect the cluster**** next week?

Help foots!

Westsidehideaway said...

Sleeting on the Westside at 11:22.

Unknown said...

Sleeting in Cockeysville, temp 27 degrees.

kyleZ said...

Complete waste of cold and precip this winter should just stop and come back next December.

Westsidehideaway said...

Hey. Anyone know how the roads are out there now?

ravensbbr said...

This. Sucks.

kyleZ said...

Pretty icy in harford even 95 was covered in sleet

Westsidehideaway said...

Yep. It looks pretty bad out there.

NeedaSnowday said...

http://www.chart.state.md.us

Click on interactive map, then video camera and you can check out various roadways from across the state. Obviously these are the major interstates and highways, but cool to see!

kyleZ said...

Is anyone even above freezing yet.

BioPat said...

Very icy in Catonsville! I just watched a neighbor try and walk out her door to get down the street and it was a major feat; the ice on the street alone is very thick and she could only walk in a tire tread marking.
If this persists through early morning hours, I would think schools will have another 2 hour late opening assuming we all still have power.

Butch Dynomite said...

Agree. sleet to into ice pretty potent combo

Westsidehideaway said...

The trees here have a coating of ice on them here.

Westsidehideaway said...

I guess those of us on this blog are in "steerage class" since we have not received a FF update lately. Hopefully we get one soon after the First Class folks get am update.

Westsidehideaway said...

Power is out in a big bunch of Catonsville.

Unknown said...

Still 30 degrees down here in lower Calvert, still freezing rain. Lost a branch off a pine tree, if the wind kicks up we could be losing lots of trees tonight.

NeedaSnowday said...

And the delays begin... HoCo 2 hours...

Unknown said...

BIG STORM up the east coast later this coming week is POSSIBLE.

Westsidehideaway said...

Mike. Tell me more. Inquiring minds want to know!!!

Butch Dynomite said...

Steerage class....maybe but folks on blog are valuable resource too. Also I'm such a panzy. Didn't even attempt to remove ice from porch. Were covered in ice shell!

Butch Dynomite said...

Gfs has had a lot of moisture in forcast next week for ...geez since sometime last week. But I can't tell man could be all rain. Mike called one far out before Though. Hope springs eternal.

genser95 said...

Rain comes first, warms up for a day, energy behind rounds the bend and it snows on Thursday. At least that's what some modeling is suggesting.

kyleZ said...

One more storm to end us with a bang for this winter would be great hoping for a good dumping come Thursday .

Butch Dynomite said...

Here's hoping....hoping that models have not been accurately modeling snow and ice keeping ground temps a degree or two lower....any NASCAR fans out there? Ever here of the so called" vortex effect"?

kyleZ said...

Joe bastardi has really nailed the forecast for February at the end of January he said the south and mid Atlantic would get more snow and be a lot colder and bam he was right just giving credit when it's do.

BioPat said...

All local school systems closed in response to all the icing; a very wise decision a I look out my window at 7:30 with everything covered with at least 1/4" of ice if not more. Once the sun emerges I am sure it will be gone but so glad the schools made this decision.
Thursday could be another significant event. Still in recovery from the yesterday's storm the media is reluctant to say too much - and probably a wise decision. However I am very happy about today, first my number didn't come up for Baltimore County Jury duty and second I have a chance to catch up on some grading.
Be safe all, I hear the main roads are not too bad, but in most cases you have to first get there including de-icing your car.

kyleZ said...

Yea Thursday should be interesting reminds me of last year when we went from 50 to six inches the next day with a attic front plowing through one last dumping maybe.