Thursday, March 5, 2015

Snow on schedule

Snow On Schedule


8:00 AM 3/5 - RADAR UPDATE (Forecaster Mike and the Winter Stormcast Team)

With moderate snow now being reported across the central Mid-Atlantic, the latest in a long series of significant winter storms is on schedule. Let us know you conditions - temperature, precipitation type, and if snowfall is sticking! For the next several hours to at least noon, areas seeing snow should expect up to 1" an hour with low visibility. 

ACCUMULATIONS - We still expect a region wide 5-8" of snow before all is said and done, with 3-6" south of route 50. Those southern areas actually have the best chance to get more than forecast of 3-6", if heavy banding occurs during the early afternoon. This is something we will be keeping a close eye on! See below for our final snowfall forecast map, and let us know how this event verifies in your area compared to the forecast.

ON TRACK? - The second wave of precipitation has arrived on schedule and precipitation rates will start to increase again. Similarly, the freezing line is progressing right on schedule. This storm trended a little later in its timing, but don't let the late start fool you into thinking it's nothing.
  • THIS MORNING - Snow, heavy at times, will continue across the region. Due to last night's rain and warm temperatures, it may have trouble sticking initially closest to the Bay (which is why we need your reports!). However, temperatures will continue dropping, reaching around 30ยบ by noon with upper 20s NW and continuing to fall.
  • THIS AFTERNOON - Snow will continue, with the heaviest snow bands dumping just a little further south than this morning. Things will slowly track further south and east before tapering off between 4PM and 7PM.
  • TONIGHT - The system moves out and it's right back into the deep freeze. Expect lows in the upper single digits to lower teens across the region (ugh).




WILL SPRING COME, EVER? - While Friday will feel like the middle of winter, we will gradually moderate. We may even see temperatures near average for this time of year by the middle of next week! (Kinda sad when that feels like summer, huh?). After that, it's a little unclear if we stay warm or retrograde back, but from now on, the cold outbreaks will get weaker and weaker. Stay tuned and stay safe today!
(Forecaster Mike)

74 comments:

kyleZ said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
kyleZ said...

The snow has been really light in the last 30 mins almost barely snowing I thought there were supposed to be 1-2 inch rates maybe .75 in over 2 hours.

Westsidehideaway said...

Snowing at a good pace in West Baktimore. About in inch on the ground with a temp at 30 degrees.

kyleZ said...

Wow they got 20 inches in parts of Kentucky hopefully we get into some of that stuff!!

BioPat said...

Many counties and the city are running out of salt so this could be a problem dealing with the roads. That being said stay home unless you have to travel.

Butch Dynomite said...

Plus ...it's tough to put down salt while it's pouring. The lack of treatment plus cold tomorrow might make for some of the tougher shovel scraping of the winter.

kristia35 said...

About 2 inches here. Steady snow. Wish we could have cashed in on last night with the temps.

Wisconsin Native said...

This snow is heavier than the snow we've had all season. If you have the time and don't have a snowblower, shovel this in increments so you don't break your equipment or your back. 8 Inches of this heavy packing snow is great for snowmen (or IGLOO'S!) but not great for lumbar injuries.

kyleZ said...

I'll bite my tongue it just picked up a lot went up to 3 inches fast!!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Heavy snow. Steady 30 dbz rates here. 40 dbz pooping up in spots.We have near 6 inches on the ground on mhy snowboard and also unofficial lazy deck table and it is pouring snow. Judging from radar trends I think a few who are under these bands especially near the Mason Dixon line could finish with totals near 14 inches.

Rick Santiago said...

Baltimore 21210 has got 3+ inches of nice heavy snow... Perfect snow for winter activities!

kyleZ said...

4+ inches in harford pouring fluff right now plus it has gotten very windy almost like a blizzard.Great call Andy!!

ravensbbr said...

>Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Heavy snow. Steady 30 dbz rates here. 40 dbz pooping up in spots...
>

Andy, you tell those 40dbz echoes to stop pooping on your deck at once and clean up their mess ASAP!

:-)

NeedaSnowday said...

OHHH LAWDY... I cracked up over Andy's typo, but howled at BBRs response!

BEAUTIFUL out there!

Cardinals are stunning with white background! Birds at my feeders are going to town!

BEST.STORM.THIS.WINTER!!!

Tom Flanagan said...

Absolutely DUMPING snow here in Annapolis! Finally got some stickage, about 2 inches on the ground so far!

Mike Cheuvront said...

Just made the trip back from Glen Burnie. 30* and snowing there but little stickage.

695 was slush covered.

795 was toast. Snow covered 35mph tops.

30 north was toast. Heavy snow cover in areas that have seen no plow recently.

Got home to Manchester to find 8 inches with 25*.

I guess 8-12 will verify here. Thankful to make it home safe. Now the wife needs to make it home from Baltimore.

Morpheus said...

change over happened around 9 am. snow is wet and heavy, mushing down and not stacking up. Less than an inch here and temp. has risen to 37 degrees. Snow just starting to pick up...have my doubts about getting what was predicted...even with possible afternoon banding.

Butch Dynomite said...

Yeah...lookin fierce. Gonna hafta put a dent on the sidewalk while it's still easy fluffy


Tom Flanagan said...

Morpheus that's too bad. Hopefully ur temps will crash sooner than later!

kristia35 said...

Shoveled the driveway once and by the time I was through with the sidewalks, the drive was covered again.

ravensbbr said...

Looks to me like plenty more moisture on tap with temps coming down through tomorrow...

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Satellite/WaterVapor.aspx

Think I'm gonna wait until this afternoon to break out the Deere and break the starter cord off again at that point. Good to plan ahead...

Detritus Effluvium said...

At straight-up 12 noon:

At least 6 inches on the ground here on the Upper Eastern Shore near Chesapeake City. It's coming down pretty hard and the temperature is right at 32˚ F. Wind is out of the North at around 10 MPH.

If you can, start shovelling, plowing or blowing now while you can still move this heavy snow around.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Lol. Autocorrect. At least the GFS autocorrected to the Euro. Euro has been superior as well as the ukmet with southern stream systems.

Sinbad said...

I just got in from my first shovel expedition here in Baltimore. There's a layer of slush under my snow. It's not gonna be pretty for those who wait and try to shovel it all at once. Also, if your gutters are not cleared before all that slush freezes you'll have a whole new problem. Otherwise, great snow for building things and really not cold at all, though I did get kind of wet.

Morpheus said...

Thanks Tom - no looking good at this point. About an inch, maybe inch and a half of compressed snow. Temp's holding steady at 36 degrees, if Annapolis is at 32 degrees and about a 20 minute drive from here, I must be in a pocket of hold out warmth. Snow as tapered off to very light.
---looking like a Bowie Bust--- unless this afternoon turns hard and fast!

Westsidehideaway said...

Just back from first round of shoveling. 3.5 inches so far and it is heavy and wet. Storm is moving fast. I'll predict 7 inches for West Baltimore.

Morpheus said...

man looks out window and mumbles dry slot, exhales deeply.

BioPat said...

We're just a hair over 4" in Catonsville at present. If it continues to snow at this rate I would say we'll have 7-8" before it is over. The slush underneath the snow is going to be difficult to mover particularly tomorrow in the cold temps forecast.

ravensbbr said...

Man growls at broken snowthrower and trudges to back shed to get snow shovel...

There is an upside, Morph. Probably not what you want to hear right now, but your back will be in much better shape than mine this evening...

Wisconsin Native said...

The key to the slush is to shovel it early and then it won't be there anymore. Shovel two or three times throughout the storm so it doesn't break your shovel or give you a back ache or heart attack. Every few feet it all clumps together. I cleared off my car and once it's all over will clean it off one last time to make sure ice doesn't form on it. This works for me but do whatever you want. :)

Morpheus said...

If you lived closer Ravensbbr - I would come over and help you out. The new plow for my ATV works great, easy on back and just lots of fun to push snow around with. Like it so much that I sold my snow blower on Crags list to a local landscaper.

Now I just need the snow to come down, so I can play. ;-)

ravensbbr said...

Got it started! McGyver would be proud. Jury rigged the sumgum outta that beast, but it starts!

ravensbbr said...

Thanks, Morph, appreciate the offer, good to go here now!

Morpheus said...

Artic Air finally starting to move in, flakes have gone from wet fatties to cold thinies and lots of them. Temp down to 34 degrees and dropping slowly. Hope springs eternal for this next round of moisture coming north!

Feels good to pull a McGyver. My grandparents gave my sister a 67 ford falcon when we were in our twenties for our late great aunt. I was with her going to Albany in a monsoon rain when the wiper's quit. We had scotch tape and post-it notes to work with. I figured out where the short was and built a post-it/tape umbrella - which worked! Glad your back in business Ravenbbr!

Rick Santiago said...

Baltimore 21210 is definitely going to get the higher amount totals. Probably have in the 5+ range and just now looked out the window, it seems like Thor is getting a second wind at the moment, snow really coming down again!!!

kyleZ said...

Puking fluff right now 7 inches plus in Harford.

Westsidehideaway said...

Agree with Rick. It is rocking out there. Haven't seen a City truck in a while. Guess I better take some more snow off the driveway before it gets too heavy.

Detritus Effluvium said...

Just got finished plowing our long lane with the 1971 Cub Cadet, It's a heavy snow with slush underneath that's starting to freeze. I'd say there's 7-8 inches on the ground here in 21915 since we seem to have been hit with heavy bands of snow earlier.

Temperature is dropping fast - down to 27˚ already. Winds are just now starting to increase to 15 MPH from NNW.

If you can, get this snow moved ASAP before it freezes solid.

Morpheus said...

Really coming down and what looks like is in the pipe is peaking yellow and red returns on the radar! Temps finally below freezing (30.5)! Looks like we are coming up on 4 inches. If the really juicy bands do not slip south of Bowie we might actually verify on the low end of the forecast(s).

Mike Cheuvront said...

10-11" in Manchester. Thank goodness for the Kubota Tractor. Wish you all to the south would get the foot also.

Sinbad said...

I just got in from my second shovel expedition here in Baltimore. It's beautiful, gorgeous snow out there. Snow is, indeed, lighter, drier, fluffier, and the birds have started coming to look for dinner. Had to clear off the snow even though the bird stand is under a patio roof.

I was very glad I got the slush out of the way earlier, and there was just a little residual damp underlying on the sidewalk. I was pleased to see a couple neighbors out shovelling as well. Hope everyone enjoys their snow!

Ilchester Tom said...

Hello, all! Love the blog and all the great info on the site! Still coming down steady in eastern Ellicott City as we close in on 5". Hoping to crack 8" before it tapers this evening. Shoveled the deck to top off the bird feeder and spread some seed on the shoveled areas. The birds are really having a snow party today! The Cub Cadet tractor with snowblower and the Ariens walk-behinds are on standby for after dinner action. Gonna take the boys up to school for some sledding since they haven't been there much lately. This looks like good snow for sledding and snowballs! Keep it coming, mother nature!

Morpheus said...

Thanks Mike for the call out for us lowlanders. I looked at a Kubota but could not justify for the patch of woods I have - ATV make's a nice little poor mans tractor with the right attachments.

Butch Dynomite said...

I bought a bag of seeds for a group of robins that just returned maybe ten days ago...they were hanging out in my pear tree a bit ago...what is the best way to make the food easy for them to get to untill I get a feeder?....

kristia35 said...

We put some in a tin under the table on the deck. They flock to it

Loosend said...

Butch. I don't think they eat seeds--at least not at my feeders. They love worms and insects but there aren't any insects around yet. I uncover the ground in spots so they can dig up some worms. I have had blue jays, cardinals (lots), sparrows, chickadees, brown headed cow birds, red winged back birds, grackles(sp?), etc. Seems like I have the only feeder in Edgemere but that's OK. I hope everyone is enjoying the snow. I AM and so are the dogs!!!!!!!! Robert

BioPat said...

Just shoveled and used the snow blower on about 7" of snow on our first pass at clearing out. Ut's was filling in as quickly as we were clearing I can see where we could easily get another 2-3 inches which would bring us to about 10" on the snowfall.
The wet stuff underneath is heavy and the snow blower didn't like it so took it slow. I haven't seen the news for what the roads look like around the area but I'll go out on a limb here and say the week is over for schools. Now is the time to determine how days will be made up or possibly forgiven by the State.

Mike Cheuvront said...

Yeah Morph--- I lived in the Woodlawn area for all but 11 of my 51 yrs and I know how it feels to be on the short end of the snow total. When I was growing up all I ever heard was North and West of 95 is getting it again.

As far as the ATV. That's awesome. I could have used that even here. For 10 years I had a snow blower for a parking lot about 100Ft x 50Ft and a drive way about a tenth mile long. Just about killed me the past 2 years so we went big.

Glad we did.

Loosend said...

What are you feeding the Robins??? Oh, and woodpeckers are at the feeders too. They love suet.

kristia35 said...

I've seen a woodpecker also today and a few cardinals. The other birds like the black oil sunflower seed. wish I could post pics. I have a bird party going on out there.

Butch Dynomite said...

Cool ty. Robins don't eat seeds!? Ok yeah I guess makes sense but those guys sure aren't getting worms for dinner tonight.It looks as if I don't have any easy cake material either

Amy said...

I've shoveled 2x so far and I'm glad I did. Cleared about 3 inches the first time and close to 4 the next. I can't imagine driving into HoCo for work/school tomorrow. When all is said and done we will have hit the high end of the range, if not surpassed it.

Mike Cheuvront said...

Snow's back edge slowly approaching. manchester will verify over 10-12" around the region.

Thank you to Foot's for an overall pretty accurate prediction on accumulation.

I felt all along the way this would play out would be about the battle to root out the warm air.

This is why some areas won more than others in this storm setup.

There has been some great discussions and comments. Thanks to everyone for being respectful and insightful about your thoughts and others also.

Morpheus said...

Mike when I lived up in Baltimore county my neighbor had a Kubota with a bucket and field cutting rig. I helped him out on his farm and he let me use the Kubota - save my back in so many ways. Its a great piece of equipment - enjoy!

Looks like about 5 inches out there...it seems like those really heavy bands will be pounding the folks to the south of me. Hopefully well get grazed and pick up another inch or two.

Loosend said...

Any thoughts on wind following this system out? It happens sometimes and there is alot of stickage on the trees and lines. Thanks

NeedaSnowday said...

Balt city schools closed tomorrow ....

kyleZ said...

Looks like a final band pushing through western Maryland and West Virginia might squeak out a little more.

Tom Flanagan said...

I haven't been able to find a map showing the location of the system, but I'm just wondering... Coastal development?

NeedaSnowday said...

Harford co closed tomorrow....

NeedaSnowday said...

Add Montgomery to list....

BioPat said...

Baltimore, Carroll, Anne Arundel and Howard will follow shortly with their closures. At least by closing in the evening parents have time to plan for the kiddos.

NeedaSnowday said...

Agreed BP... Cecil and Queen Anne's down..

NeedaSnowday said...

Down goes Balitimore county...

BioPat said...

Baltimore County just announced their closure. Here come the others!

NeedaSnowday said...

Howard closed...

Anthony Foppiano said...

Calvert County closed. We changed over at about 2PM, and have been getting 1 inch per hour ever since. About to eat dinner, then go out and shovel. Looks like we will have about 6" when it is done, so Foot actually undershot our forecast. Not that i am complaining...

Detritus Effluvium said...

I had to plow our 1/4 mile wooded lane again around 5 PM. I think we got close to 10-11 inches total. We had whiteout conditions several times today but we live right on the water near the Bohemia River so our data probably doesn't represent most of Cecil County.

It got so cold (22˚) that the plow froze up and had to be hit with a mallet to adjust it. That means it's time to quit and add some wood to the stove to thaw out.

This storm was aimed directly at us. It's quite a beautiful scene with all the snow ensconced in the trees. I can really appreciate the beauty of it all but now I've had enough. We're almost out of firewood (I cut and stacked 7 cords!) and we're tired of the wind, unseasonable temperatures and lack of sunlight. It may seem heretical to this group but I can't wait to go sailing!

Flame said...

A solid 6 inches here. Just happens that we did not get any bands here. It went by in the north, then another in the south. Had it hit, easy 9 to 11.

Sinbad said...

I went for my last shovel expedition around 6 when I noticed it stopped snowing. It was easy work and enjoyable, though there was ice forming after I cleared. I stopped a kid from running down the sidewalks (people, TELL your kids about deadly slips and falls on unseen ice) and tossed some salt around. A few minutes in my car got that clearing underway, and I'll be good to go tomorrow. Unofficial patio chair measurement: 6 inches. Really feels like more. What a great snow!

Westsidehideaway said...

Westside is shoveled and ready to roll tomorrow. What a day.

Butch Dynomite said...

For my area this forecast was remarkable. I didn't exactly get out a ruler, but that's not what matters really. Timing and impact far more relivant. Thanks Foot ... also nice to hit a high note ....me and my neighbors shovelling in the quiet dusk.

Butch Dynomite said...

....and ...little bonus band!!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Appears from spotters and other reports that the region had a general 7 to 12 inches. Banding was sporadic and those who grabbed it cashed in. Incredible storm for March especially considering the cold. Not often we have powder snow storms 5 days into March. Usually they are paste bombs. I measured 12, other reports of 12 in Manchester MD. North Carroll and Northern Baltimore had many 9-11 inch reports. Plenty of 8-10 inch reports all over the surrounding counties. HAPPY SPRING! Unless of course another storm pops up on the models :)

Peg McCarthy said...

We got 8.5"here in Cockeysville. I used our leaf blower (cardiac issues) about 10:30A to tackle the first four inches. Husband did second, and final, clearing with shovel/leaf blower combo. Both cars ready to rock 'n roll in the morning.