Friday, January 1, 2016

"Oh the times, they are a-changing." - Bob Dylan

8:00 AM EST 1/1 - As we ring in the New Year, eastern U.S. weather watchers know big changes in the pattern are looming on the horizon. A new change this month will be the option to access our reports through custom apps for clients, Insiders and readers alike.

For now, if you enjoyed the BBQ-like weather featured at Thanksgiving and Christmas in the east, but are ready for a return to cold, your wish is about to be granted. 

Although snow cover in Canada and across the northern U.S. has severely hampered winter-dependent industries, long range indications show a series of Arctic Highs will begin moving southward in the next 2 weeks. These initial Highs will usher in seasonal temperatures, and for those yearning to see snow on slopes or streets, reintroduce one of several critical pre-requisites for accumulation: Frozen ground surfaces. 

Want Snow? First, Freeze The Surface. Given the long period of above-normal temperatures, this process will take many overnights of sub-32 F conditions to refreeze the ground. 
  • However, the U.S. Hazards Map from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center as shown above indicate the pattern is reaching a crucial turning point for winter.
  • Once snow cover can appreciably build in traditional regions such as the Great Lakes regions, southern Ontario, Pennsylvania, New York and New England.
  • Consistent snow cover increases capacity of Arctic Highs to position for longer periods of time in "storm-favorable" locations. 
As the old-school meteorologist saying goes, "Predict the High and you predict the storm." Yet, some need more details than that, and it's time for new options.

This Year, Advance Your Access To Our Reports: 
Become an Insider

As technology increases the pace of life, we know readers wish to retain authentic connections to reliable, uncomplicated information.

Ever notice when automated apps couldn't portray rapid weather changes? Many times, the careful analysis you need only trained human eyes can deliver. 

If you have trusted us all these years to do just that, we recommend gently advancing your access to the next level. 

New World Problem, Authentic Solution. We offer a resource that retains your connection to real forecasters seeing the same weather you are. Automated data is a useful resource, but programs that operate your apps don't permit the level of customization that's central to our approach. As an Insider, you're being advised by real people who can interpret what's coming in a way computers were not designed to do.

We cordially invite you to join the many readers who are Insiders with us. Read further to see if this service would be of value to you.

The Insider Advantage. Parents, executives and small companies alike find the Insider service an indispensable resource that provides hours or days of advance notice - freeing them from the confines of updates by Facebook, bypassing clunky websites - to receive our reports direct by text with email followup. A diverse range of services are available as described below, with a cost far less than you'd imagine. 

      Services our Insiders receive through 12/31/16:
  • The Foot Note - A daily, early AM text & email notification service apprising you of impending weather concerns in the next 24-36 hours
  • The Weather Board - A weekly assessment issued each Thursday all season outlining winter hazard potential in the 7-10 day period ahead.
  • Talk with a Forecaster - Have a question about a specific date or event? Ask us directly via the text service, or call the Powderline.
  • Insider's Private App - Direct access to internal reports, daily posts and special long range forecasts via a soon-to-release Insider's only app for both Apple and Android devices.
 Insider's Registration Portal  

*Winter intelligence through 12/31/16*

Confirmation Instructions
  1. All Insider services are $ 5.00 through 12/31/2016, (equivalent to 3 cents/day for 150 days of notification from Jan 1 to Mar 31 & Nov 1 - Dec 31)                                                                                           
  2. After payment, you are redirected to a confirmation page with access code instructions to complete enrollment in our Insider's text notification service.           
  3. Within 24 hours, a welcome email and first text will be issued containing our most current projections for the 7-10 day period ahead.
We look forward to formally welcoming you 
to the Insider Team for this year's winter journey!

Snowy lane near Stormstown, PA. Photo by FF Team


Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Hope y'all had a Merry Cajun Christmas! Now that you have finished popping antacids and doing shots of Pepto it's time to break out the parkas and driveway salt. We are about to enter what I have always classified as my favorite pattern. It has little to do with the AO NAO or SST etc. What is it? Well it's even better! It's called climatology. Going back through recorded weather history most of our major and minor snow events occur from the second week of January through the end of February. If you were to do a red dot cluster plot this general 6 week period would resemble a blob. Great pattern, poor pattern, normal, cold, warm, dry stormy, however you want to classify any given winter through the decades all have one thing in common. That is most of the snow events with a few notable exceptions have fallen in this 6 week period for our region. If you are in or close to this time period the odds of seeing accumulating snow are very high.

So buckle up and get ready for model chaos and rumors of storms. I think we are overdue for an ultra Kahuna. History tells me that we have one every four years or so. Last beast to visit us was in 2010. Will 2016 make up for lost time? I THINK SO!


Carrie said...

Happy New Year! Looking forward to a pattern change and some colder, hopefully snowier, weather!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Our core winter weeks are from mid January through the end of February. Outside of some rare but notable exceptions that is when model watching becomes more productive. We are finally going to see more seasonal and persistent cold, although nothing groundbreaking for January our coldest month historically. Seasonal cold and storminess are great signs going forward. I anticipate some cold rain, typical rain snow mix events over the next couple weeks before the main show begins.

Unknown said...

Canadian Model has the Jan thru March temps as below average. FWIW.

Snowplease said...

Finally get some cold air on Monday/Tuesday then the weekend looks like a cold rain after the 15th looks like better chances for snow.

ravensbbr said...

Heavy flurries this AM in the highlands...some on the truck's windshield when I left for Baltimore this seeing an old friend. :-)

BioPat said...

Happy New Year all, I for one am looking for some winter weather to ditch this virus I've had for 3 weeks now!

I also am having trouble logging in to the site. This is BioPat