Friday, December 11, 2015

Two Questions You Might Have
1. How much longer will these epic weather conditions last?  
 And..
2. When will we see the first snowfall?

6:00 AM 12/11 - First, for summer weather fans, the next 3 days may be the nicest of the whole month: Highs in the 60s today through Sunday! 
If there was some outdoor activity or project you wanted to push through before the holidays -- we say go for it.

Second, for snow-parched Powderhounds, we want to make one point:

WE ARE NOT PREDICTING A BELOW-AVERAGE SNOWFALL THIS WINTER IN THE MID-ATLANTIC. Why? Because there's a 50% chance of very little snow now to mid February-- and a 50% chance factors come together for a blockbuster event like Feb 11-12, 1983.

That storm was the only snow game in town for the '82-'83 winter in the Mid-Atlantic, during a moderate to strong El Niño. Though on an average day the winter was boring and lackluster, thanks to that one storm, snowfall was definitely not below average (albeit occurring in just one 24-hour period!) For this year, the good folks at the Climate Prediction Center have an excellent report on the status of the current El Nino thus far. 

Most importantly, they discuss how evaluation of this ocean-atmospheric connnection has only just started, for impacts of El Nino are on a seasonal time scale, not a specific point in time.  The report's last sentence drives home this point: 
  • "The main impacts season is December–March, so we’re just at the very beginning of finding out what this El Niño event will bring to the U.S. There’s no doubt that El Niño 2015-2016, which has already shown its power around the world, will have a significant effect on the U.S. winter." 

Though we don't expect much of anything white or frozen to fall the next 2 weeks, as Yoda might say, one warm spell in December "write off the winter, it certainly does not."
Our Winter Stormcast Team will be issuing their first  special report this weekend on how we see the first half of winter playing out now to Feb 1. We'll let you know how to access it on this website or by email.
Until then, try to talk a walk or just spend some time outside if you are able. Winter will exact it's revenge, but for now we might as well use the nice conditions while we can!

-Mr. Foot and the Winter Stormcast Team

Sunrise at the Havre De Grace, MD Lighthouse
by reader Jeff Perkins

10 comments:

Snowplease said...

Yay 70 degrees on Christmas said no one ever this is not looking good for us near the bay the temp is 14 degrees warmer than this time last year hello to the highlands snow and lowlands rain hoping the second half of winter has something in store.

ravensbbr said...

Those of us up here in the highlands are OK with that outlook.

#913ftASL

#braggingwillstopwhenyoualldowntherehavepowerandweareout

:-)

Snowplease said...

160ft and 3 miles from the bay at this point I'm just looking for cold weather and praying for snow:/

ravensbbr said...

Just wait until the power outages up here. Sea level and temperate doesn't sound so bad then. :-)

ravensbbr said...

Andy? Mike? Bueller? Anyone out there?

Butch Dynomite said...

Grumble

ravensbbr said...

Snowthrower, going cheap. Free to good home with mittens and parka thrown in.

- said no one ever on this blog. Hurry up, late January/early February!

Mike Cheuvront said...

Mike here----The current pattern will be collapsing and changing over the next 2-3 weeks. The water temps are NOT the same set up as 97-98 when we got zippo for snow. It makes sense that the results would be different also.

The El Nino values have been crashing for months but the change in the atmosphere is lagging behind.

Mid Jan thru March should be interesting. Remember winter did not begin until now.

Merry Christmas and Happy SNOW year! OOPS ---NEW YEAR :)

ravensbbr said...

I see what you did there, Mike. :-P

Merry Christmas!

John Hilston said...

There is no doubt that weather conditions are changing so much as compared to previous years.
long stay parking heathrow