"S(he's) Got The Look."
- 1988 single by Roxette from the album Look Sharp!
2:00 PM 10/1/15 - TROPICAL TEAM UPDATE
- LATEST HURRICANE CENTER ADVISORY KEEPS TRACK OFFSHORE AT APPROX. 150 MILES EAST OF OCEAN CITY, MD., IN CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY'S BAY SCENARIO.
- SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASED TO CATEGORY 4 AT 130 MPH - COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT WITH A THIRD OF MEMBER HOLDING WEST, TWO-THIRDS HAVE TRENDED EAST.
- SIGNIFICANT SECONDARY EFFECTS WILL BE FELT ACROSS MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS AND IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND EXTENDING INTO MONDAY.
- Although the Chesapeake Bay "Hurricane X" projection has reduced sharply in probability, our concern is that some will interpret an east-ward shifting storm track as license to dismiss and ignore.
- Hurricane Sandy never made landfall in Maryland, but while 200 miles off shore, the storm produced a 6.8 foot surge in downtown Ocean City, MD. The impacts in New Jersey from a 90 mph hurricane at landfall were no less than catastrophic.
- This storm will be stronger than Sandy ever was, but will be moving much slower and in turn, will push water for 48 hours up the Chesapeake Bay and other sensitive coastal environments. This may create a major to historically significant flood even if there is no landfall.
10:50 AM 10/1/15 TROPICAL TEAM UPDATE: PROJECTED PATH SHIFTING EAST, JOAQUIN REMAINS AN UNPREDICTABLE AND DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 36 FEET UNDER THE CENTRAL CORE.
As we await the 11 AM NHC update on Joaquin's strength and future path, this is a heads up message that we anticipate a significant shift back to a more Eastward track. This shift would be similar to tracks shown early Wednesday before the "Hurricane X" scenario of straight up the bay was presented at 5 PM at the NHC update.
- We are also preparing a storm timeline and a wind field analysis graphic to aid those with interests or property along the water - who are seeking information on timing of surge and wind.
- For example, the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center satellite of Wind & Wave Analysis shows that wave heights are 12-15 feet surrounding the storm, peaking at 36 foot heights under the central core! That is not surge but waves, and those are likely to go higher as the storm intensifies today.
This storm will remain a complex and changing setup until it departs the region. We caution that regardless of track shift west or east, the slow movement of Joaquin in the next 72 hours will create widespread wind, rain and wave impacts from the Carolinas to southern New England.
3:00 AM 10/1 - TROPICAL TEAM UPDATE
- Joaquin reached Major Hurricane status at the 11 PM NHC Advisory with winds of 115 mph, three days earlier than models and forecasters expected. Intensity forecasts now point to winds reaching 140 mph (Category 4) before Saturday.
- Changes in the official track are anticipated today, as the storm's more southwestern movement may result in edging the eventual path closer to a coastline "grazing" along the Delmarva versus straight up the Chesapeake Bay.
- Latest computer model projections as compiled into a map presented by the National Centers for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) remain clustered around a mid-Atlantic landfall as early as Saturday night, with the storm slowing once onshore.
- Our Tropical Team reminds mid-Atlantic readers not overlook 6" or more of wind-swept rain is en route for the region Thursday-Friday, prior to Joaquin's arrival.