Monday, December 19, 2016

Welcoming Winter

3 comments:
Welcoming Winter with Cool & Calm
MAP IS FOR FRIDAY 12/23:
BLUE H'S IN THE EAST MEAN RELATIVELY DRY, CALM CONDITIONS
5:00 AM EST 12/19 - After a raucous weekend of freezing rain, cold winds, heavy rain and practically the whole kitchen sink thrown at us, it is a pleasure to announce a tranquil start to this week that officially welcomes winter!
  • Cool temperatures and dry conditions expected throughout the region as we head toward the holiday weekend.
  • If you are looking for some hope of snow out there.. the best we can do is a chance of brief snow showers Thursday night (sorry but that would be after school has ended for the day...)

The good news is, at least travelers in the Eastern U.S. will not have to contend with weather hindering their journeys on Friday 12/23 and into Christmas Eve. High pressure will build into the region with colder temperatures but should stay free of storms into Christmas Day for most of us.
Our warm and grateful wishes to all readers for a safe, incident free week ahead and quiet days for wherever the holidays take you. 

- From all of us at the FF Team.




Thursday, December 15, 2016

13 comments:
Saturday: Kitchen Sink Weather
Sunday: ServPro Weather
  • WINTER STORM WATCH FOR CENTRAL MD, NORTHERN VA AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN WV FROM 12 AM SAT TO 12 PM SAT 12/17. 
  • Surface map projection for 7 AM Saturday indicates snow has turned to sleet & freezing rain, and will overspread the region until late morning, then begin changing to rain.

NWS Hourly Weather Chart for Owings Mills MD is a representative location 
for the kitchen sink potpurri of precip that starts by Friday evening area wide. 


  • By Saturday afternoon, all precip has turned to rain south of Interstate 76. 
  • On Sunday, temps rise to near 50 F-- forcing us to say that it will be like Saturday's snow and ice "never even happened." 
  • Monday? Let's just say the game is a-foot and we'll have more details in the PM update.

Tuesday, December 13, 2016

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Winter Services - Foot's Forecast, LLC

Monday, December 12, 2016

7 comments:
Serious cold...then weekend storm?
Overview of short- and long-term winter hazards  

  • JANUARY-LIKE CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY 12/18. With the exception of Monday 12/12, PM highs barely crossing 40 F into midweek. HIGHS dropping to the 20s end of the week, AM lows in single digit to teens by Thursday AM. 
  • CURRENT COLD PERIOD RESEMBLES WEEK PRIOR TO DEC 19, 2009. This was the first major snow event of 2009-10 season in the Mid-Atlantic. Click link for a look-back at what our team said before the storm.
  • STORM TARGET PERIOD 12/15 TO 12/19 is next time frame we project conditions will become favorable for significant snow accumulation from the I-81 corridor to the I-95 corridor.

Does this mean a major storm is brewing?





Not immediately, but surface conditions are becoming favorable in the short term:
  • One essential ingredient needed to permit accumulating snowfall in the I-95 corridor and adjacent areas is falling into place: A solid week of serious cold in advance of any approaching storms, whether coastals or clippers. 
  • If snow cover develops throughout Pennsylvania, Ohio and areas on north, and snow cover is added in the metro areas this week, the chances for a significant event begin to rise.

The difference between winter 2016-17 and last winter, or 2009-10:
  • This season, the influence of El Nino and it's associated moisture influx from the Pacific is absent from the indicators. 
  • Instead, U.S. weather is now being strongly influenced by a La Nina- driven pattern where the Pacific sea surface temperatures have cooled dramatically from last year at this time. 
  • The rapid cooling of surface waters induces ridge of High pressure over the western U.S., and in turn drives a Low pressure trough in the Eastern U.S. 
  • Learn more about La Nina's effect on U.S. weather patterns at this NOAA site.








Results of this La Nina so far? You are seeing it now:  

  • An Arctic front blasting through the Midwest heading east, dropping quick amounts of snow -- not crippling but happening fast enough to cause serious disruption.
  • For the metros & coast: Long periods of cold, dry, windy weather. Not much rain. But when it does rain, there are deluges-- but only for 1 day.
  • For areas bordering the Great Lakes:  Higher than normal rainfall and snowfall due to the warm waters being tapped by passing fronts.
  • For everyone east of the Rockies: Reduced snow cover until only just this week due to less moisture available to produce snow. 
Tell me there is some hope, please.

Yes Virginia, there is always hope. Once snow cover establishes in the northern and central U.S., and a period of cold controls the East, the stage will be set for any coastal or clipper storms to "over-perform" and be provided the conditions necessary to generate potentially significant snow in the next 2 weeks. 

We shall be watching as we are certain many teachers & powderhounds will be also...


Latest snow cover from the NOAA National Ice Center



Eastern Powderhounds are yearning to see just a little bit. 
How much longer must they wait?

Sunday, November 20, 2016

1 comment:
Pre-Season Insider's Peek 

This winter, we invite you to be among the first who receive our 
advance weather intel via updates by app, text and email. 
Consider joining the Powderhound Insiders!

Below: Sample screens from the Insider's app of the 2015-16 season.



Friday, October 14, 2016

What about Winter?

2 comments:
What About Winter? 

Part Two - October Indicators 



1) Arctic Sea ice: Slow to rebound from late September melt-off, and seasonal refreeze levels currently lagging behind levels seen before recent winters of 2014 and 2015. Researchers and bloggers alike have noted the unusual nature of this season's sea ice melt and rebound.


2) Snowcover in adjacent areas has rapidly expanded in western and central Siberia to northern & central Canada, relative to seasonal averages. Snowcover is clearly lagging in Alaska as compared to seasonal norms and observations from previous years at mid-October.

3) Polar temperatures: Seasonal readings above 80 North reported by the Danish Meteorological Institute are running several degrees above the seasonal range for this time of year. 

OUR EARLY ASSESSMENT OF WHAT IT MEANS: 
  • Early clues: Arctic/Polar conditions in October provide early indications of how climate factors may interact to influence the start of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, and North America,.
  • Strange days ahead: This season follows an above-normal temperature regime from last winter for the Arctic above 80 North. Now with sea ice lagging but snowcover rising in areas farther south than usual, these competing data point suggest a divergent and erratic start to winter.
  • Possible results:  This inconsistent alignment of ice & snow could lead to wildly fluctuating conditions in early winter. One option would be an early season sharp cold outbreak, then a rapid warm up, followed by equally strong cool downs and erratic snowfall events that briefly disrupt, then quickly disappear.


Part One - Clues from Summer


Finally, as the heat takes a break, we can get the winter forecast gears warmed up with this question: How many school closing curveballs and schedule shutouts could happen this winter? Science students and the FF team are on the case. 

The preliminary report begins below the bullet summary:

  • The above normal temperature pattern in East, connected to growing below normal pattern in West, may be early sign this winter could start like 2015-16: Mild first half, stormy and cold second half.
  • Seasonal melt-off of Arctic sea ice appears on level with readings of the past 3 years, not as low as the September 2012 record meltoff.
  • Rapid transition of El Nino to La Nina conditions sets stage for surprise ice events throughout the season ahead, especially in the Mid-Atlantic.
Orioles Opening Day in April 2003. Photo credit: The Baltimore Sun

ANALYZING SUMMER CLUES FOR THE PRE-WINTER PATTERN

Late summer in the Foot's Forecast team is the start of our seasonal process to identify how pre-winter indicators stand so as to detect developing trends. Large scale hemispheric trends known to influence how winter develops in the Mid-Atlantic include frequency and location of tropical systems, sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific and end-of-summer Arctic sea ice meltoff. 

In September 2016, this investigation will be conducted by science students at several high schools in the Baltimore metropolitan area, in collaboration with member of our team across the Mid-Atlantic. Initial findings released arround September 15, draft projections by October 1, full winter assessment by October 30.

Click below if ready for a sneak peek...

Tuesday, October 4, 2016

1 comment:
MAJOR MATTHEW TARGETS SOUTHEAST COAST
  • SURGE OF 10-15 FEET, RAINFALL OF 15-25 INCHES OR MORE LIKELY IN HAITI, EASTERN CUBAN & THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THURSDAY AM.
  • LARGE SWELLS & DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST & MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON IMPACT SCENARIOS IN PROGRESS. 





RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH MON 10/10


Thursday, September 8, 2016

2 comments:
A special opportunity for you.


While the weather is calm for now, we are excited to announce this special news! If you or those you know are house hunting in Baltimore County, Maryland, the FF family home in Dundalk, MD was recently listed on the market for sale. 

We are thrilled to share this big step and invite an online sneak peek at what has been such a blessing and gem to us. If interested in further details or to arrange a visit, please feel welcome to contact the listing agent directly. 
SLIDE SHOW | MLS # BC9730684 PDF FLYER | AGENT WEBSITE
Harris Weingrad, RE/MAX Allegiance: h.m.w.@me.com
                             1720 Wisconsin Ave NW WashingtonDC  20007                        
Cell 202.569.1600 | Office 202.338.8900


Friday, September 2, 2016

1 comment:
Weathering the weekend 
with Tropical Storm Hermine



6:00 AM Fri 9/2 - Weekend plans at the shore? Hosting an outdoor activity? You WILL need a Plan B, we guarantee it.
The expected track of now-Tropical Storm Hermine this weekend has prompted Tropical Storm Watches to be posted for the entire Mid-Atlantic coastline from:

* Virginia Beach and the Southern Chesapeake Bay to Smith Point;
* the Atlantic coasts of Maryland and Delaware,
* the New Jersey coast to Sandy Hook.

The current Advisory and Track map from the NOAA National Hurricane Center. The Tropical Storm Watches are shown in yellow below.




Period of highest impacts in these areas at this point will be Saturday morning through Sunday evening, including winds of 40 mph or greater for the coastline, rainfall of 2-4" and tidal flooding. Waves along the MD and DE coast of 10-12 feet are possible by Saturday afternoon. 

An hourly weather chart for Ocean City, MD as one example reveals just how nasty conditions will be through Sunday. Top line is wind gusts -- near 50 mph for 12+ hours!

Full details on specific impacts for different areas across the region:
For areas west of the Chesapeake Bay including the Baltimore-Washington metro area, currently we expect impacts from Hermine will include:

  • Winds of 15-25 mph Sat into Sun AM;
  • Occasional rain of less than 1.0" 
  • Tides about 1 foot above normal

This storm will remain a complex and evolving situation through the weekend impacting all of us in many ways. It is possible the storm may slow down by Monday and even move back toward the coast -- requiring major changes to current forecasts.
We will effort to keep you advised as information becomes available. Please continue monitoring your local NWS office websites for the most current advisories at http://www.weather.gov

-Foot's Forecast Tropical Team

Monday, August 22, 2016

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Life Is What You Make It

TRUE STORIES OF REAL STUDENTS WHO LEVERAGED THEIR 
EXPERIENCES IN FOOT'S FORECAST AND BEYOND TO ADVANCE CAREER 
OPPORTUNITIES AND ACHIEVED THE LIFE THEY KNEW WAS POSSIBLE.


Members of our team at Penn State meeting in March 2013


8/22/2016 (Mr. Foot) For the first few years of life, my younger brother and I were fortunate to have my grandparents living right next door. This was in the mid 1970s, in an era before internet memes or buying a poster with an inspirational quote. If you wanted a saying or life message, you had to draw it, carve it, do paint by number or knit it with yarn. 

From as soon as we could read, one of the first decorations in my grandparent's house we saw and learned was a little hand-knit sign in the sitting area. It was the knitted image of a sailing ship, ringed on the border by the Alphabet and the numbers 1-10. 

Under the ship was a simple message: "Don't wait for your ship to come in, swim out after it."

In the 12 years of the Foot's Forecast story, you could say that became our unofficial tagline. Dozens and dozens of talented people whom joined our team over the years became the type of go-getter employers and colleges are clamoring to recruit. These students didn't wait for opportunities to come, they went after the future they wanted. 

Below is a sampling of their true life stories. 

He built an online reputation & landed a paid internship and got a job offer before graduating college.


GREG JACKSON, CALIFORNIA UNIV. OF PA
Greg Jackson was a junior at North Carroll High School in Carroll County, MD and wasn't sure how to kick start his life. He played tennis, ran track but was otherwise an unremarkable student. But he had a passion for weather and communicated with the Foot's Forecast team for several years in our website's comments section. 

In December 2009 we reached out to him with an offer to join the team, unsure if he was a student or not. His story since then is one many incredible examples of how students turned an niche opportunity into a life-changing string of successes.


  • In Spring of his high school junior year, Greg (above, left) was offered a paid summer internship at UMBC, working alongside another one of our forecasters, Dakota Smith (above, right) who went on to graduate from Penn State in meteorology.
  • Had a PhD-reviewed research paper ready for college applications BEFORE his senior year;
  • The college recruiter at California Univ of Pennsylvania said in the interview, "I am well aware of your accomplishments online, we have all been following you for over a year in Facebook."
  • Greg was granted a scholarship to Cal U of PA, gained internships at an Environmental firm while at school, and was offered a full time job with the firm upon graduating. 
  • He finsihed with a double major in Environmental Science & Geography and is now employed full-time as an Environmental Scientist at the Potomac-Hudson Engineering Firm in Pittsburgh.
She turned passion into profit to build funds for college, and has already presented at national conferences. 

AMBER LIGGETT, MILLERSVILLE
Amber's story is, just like her company name, truly amazing. Our team first met her in the summer of 2011 while Amber was attending the NOAA-funded Weather Camp program at Howard University. She had just finished her sophomore year in high school near Pittsburgh. Amber joined the team, and got linked up with Greg Jackson once he began attending classes at Cal U. of PA in the same area. 



Amber's Amazing Balloons, the company she started before high school 

Amber presenting at a conference in New Orleans, January 2016

  • As a dedicated member of our Pennsylvania team, Amber took full advantage of opportunities to collaborate with other team members around the state, building contacts at multiple universities. 
  • While operating the Three Rivers forecast page in Facebook and taking classes full time, Amber was also operating her own profit-making venture providing exciting balloon art experiences to children, at birthday parties, public events and more. 
  • In between all this, Amber remained an active forecaster for several years, representing our team at public events and numerous conferences.
In 2013, Amber was accepted to Millersville University, and is now a junior. She has already presented a a Meteorology conference in New Orleans, and is treasurer of her college chapter of the American Meteorological Society (AMS). We are excited to see the next chapter in her amazing story and hope it is an inspiration to others with passion.


To learn more about how you can build internship opportunities like these, visit our "Offers" or "Join Us" tabs above for more information

or contact our Executive Director, Keith Krichinsky for questions: keith.krich@footsforecast.org

Thursday, June 30, 2016

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Winter Services - Foot's Forecast, LLC

Wednesday, April 6, 2016

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Why Is Spring Still On Backorder?


9:15 AM EDT 4/6 - Wondering what is going on with this April chill? For those of us who thought the season would take a sharp turn to Summer, a resurgent period of cold has obviously put those plans on backorder. Long range indications show that traditional warmth expected this time of year looks to remain delayed through at least the middle of April and possibly longer.

This "third-year-in-a-row" delay of Springtime warmth (as similar cold episodes occurred in 2014 and 2015), warranted an investigation of where northern climate indicators stand, as summarized below. See below the text for live-linked images of the cited data.
  • ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: Currently reported near 10 year averages, according to the National Ice Center. We hypothesize this level of sea ice and the higher reflectivity of nearby snow cover is having a dampening effect on surface air temperatures, and thus may be retaining a colder influence on passing High pressure systems. 
  • CANADIAN & NORTH AMERICAN SNOW COVER: This measure of geographical snow extend, as reported in this graphic from the Rutgers University Snow Lab, indicates current snow cover levels as of March 30, 2016 are running slightly higher than 30-year seasonal averages. 
  • GREAT LAKES ICE COVER: An important regional influence on eastern U.S. snowcover is water temperature and ice cover on the Great Lakes. A comparison of present ice cover in 2016 to the previous two years shows interesting differences. The April 2016 lake ice coverage is a minimal 1.1% reported by NOAA, whereas this same time period in 2015 and 2014 showed levels of 37% and 54% respectively.  
ANALYSIS: Less lake ice in 2016, due to a warmer El Nino winter, in concert with cooler Canadian air masses crossing into the U.S. has permits Low pressure systems recently to harness the Lakes as a moisture source for Eastern snowfall. The resulting northeastern U.S. snowcover has in turn created a regional chilling effect on area temperatures, as each passing High pressure system has helped to reinforce the regional cold.  See below the latest snowcover imagery from the NOAA Snow & Ice Data Center and scroll further for live-linked imagery and our conclusion at the end.


ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT


NORTH AMERICAN END OF WINTER SNOW COVER
Note: Line of best fit denoted by Rutgers Global Snow Lab 



U.S. & CANADIAN SNOW COVER


GREAT LAKES ICE COVER EXTENT


CONCLUSION: These indicators point to the possibility that until Arctic Sea Ice and corresponding Canadian snow cover shows an appreciable decrease, a continual period of cold and occasional post-Winter snow squalls that may last through end of the monthBelow is the 6-10 day temperature probability outlook from the Climate Prediction Center, indicating in the blue shaded areas a higher probability of below normal temperatures through April 15. 


Monday, March 21, 2016

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Real Spring ...right to Summer or not?

6:00 AM EDT 3/23 - Turning the corner into the next weather pattern, our Long Range Team is evaluating indicators for how this first period of Spring is going to unfold. The investigation centers on these three scenarios for the 30 day period ahead to late April for the Mid-Atlantic. Simply put, does the region face either:
A) A typical Spring pattern of alternating periods warm/cold, dry and rainy? 
B) Prolonged periods of below normal temperatures from a resurgent northern Jet Stream? 
C) Rapid arrival of summer-like conditions with widespread above normal temperatures?    
To best assess these questions, supporting evidence is needed from current status of large scale indicators. This provides a"pulse of the pattern" in order to examine how these indicators may influence local and regional weather in the weeks ahead. The three indicators chosen are 1) Status of EL Nino's decline from the peak; 2) U.S. & Canadian snow cover; 3) Atlantic & Gulf sea surface temperatures. 

Our findings are being posted in each section as the analysis becomes available for review. 

FIRST, THE BIG PICTURE : STATUS OF EL NINO




SECOND: SNOW COVER & ARCTIC TEMPS


A brief comparison of snow cover for this time period between the current El Nino event and the last one of record in 2009-10. Although this particular date in 2016 versus 2010 is just one day in a year-long data set, the intent is to demonstrate the significant differences in snow cover from the most recent moderate El Nino event to the current strong event.



THIRD : SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES




Friday, March 18, 2016

1 comment:
Spring Begins With A Winter Finale


  • LIGHT-TO-MODERATE SNOW EVENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
  • COMPUTER MODELS BACKED OFF EARLIER IDEAS OF A HEAVY SNOWFALL. PERHAPS 1-2" WILL ACTUALLY SHOW UP ON THE GROUND, AND PRIMARILY ON GRASSY & UNPAVED SURFACES.
  • PAVED SURFACES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY WET WITH SOME SNOWCOVER ON SUNDAY MORNING. 
  • REFREEZING OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
BELOW: 
Updated current snowfall projection of what may fall (but not actually be on the ground) by 8 AM Sunday from the U.S. GFS model. Snow will exit the region Sunday night.



10:00 AM EDT 3/19 -  The map above depicted a recent computer model surface projection for 8 PM Saturday 3/19. The expected arrangement which has been shown for several days now is a moderate High pressure system in southeast Canada favorably positioned offset a coastal Low. This would lead to an overnight timing of precipitation that may produce accumulation on grassy, unpaved surfaces and some untreated surfaces. Key considerations:
  • Temperatures: Recent warm conditions will permitted residual heat to be retained in paved surfaces. Even though air temperatures are projected to go below freezing at times Sunday night, some ground areas should stay above freezing. Areas that are shaded, at elevations above 500 feet, or less traveled cannot be ruled out for accumulation on paved surfaces.
  • Precip Amounts: The European model backed off earlier ideas of a 10-14" snowfall along the I-95 corridor, and is now in line with the NOAA GFS model showing 3-5".
  • Sun Angle: This time of year, any model projection for high accumulation has to be taken as suspect. Angle of the sun by midday is the equivalent to mid-October. Although snow is likely to be "falling" quite heavily on Sunday, you may actually see the sun shining through the clouds -- and not much beyond an inch at any one time laying on the ground. 
PRECIP AT 2 AM SUNDAY 



 TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM SUNDAY

THE MONDAY AM COMMUTE? 



Some refreezing is possible due to temperatures dropping into the mid 20s early Monday AM as snow exits the region. However, it is probable that many roads may be just wet and any pre-treatment by salting crews should negate accumulation problems on roadways.
TEMPERATURES AT 8 AM MONDAY


Saturday, March 12, 2016

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Everyone has a passion
Collaborative service powers ours
  • 90% success rate by dozens of our members in gaining acceptance to a competitive college, earning an advanced degree or full-time employment in their preferred field.
  • Over one million individuals reached on four different weather incidents since December 2015.
  • Thousand of work hours protected and hundreds of thousands in public or private dollar losses avoided by clients due to our advance intelligence prior to major weather events.
Severe Weather Forecaster Joey Krastel, on a Plains storm chase 
Google him to see how amazing his story has become.  
What started in a high school classroom is today a trusted source for companies, local governments, parents, teachers and students. But being part of the Foot's Forecast story is more than a social media title and runs much deeper than weather.

The talents and abilities of our members has wide impact on a readership of 100,000+ who rely on our work. Professionals across the country count on our information to make time-sensitive decisions. What's most intriguing is, they know our information is prepared by students and young professionals building valuable career experience and advised by trusted experts. 

If you have the passion for partnering with decision-makers who seek sound science to help protect lives and property, we have a place for you.


Wednesday, March 9, 2016

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"I Won't Back Down."
  • ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF EL-NINO ENHANCED MOISTURE TO DRENCH WESTERN & CENTRAL U.S. NEXT 2 WEEKS. Although El Nino is fading down from it's January peak, the effects of high moisture input means it won't feel like the phenomenon is backing down much for several more months.
  • ADDITIONAL 10"+ OF RAIN FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA & NEVADA TO PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY.
  • MID-ATLANTIC & EAST BEGIN WITH SEASONAL MARCH CONDITIONS, LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS, THEN RECORD HEAT & SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAKS BY END OF THE MONTH
For Powderhounds, the place to go is Mammoth Lakes, California. The resort has received 4 feet of snow since Sunday with more expected this weekend. At last report, the new base was 165 inches according to the LA Times. Click the link for stunning photos of the monster snowfall.




For Spring-A-Lings, get ready for some equally intense rain from the central U.S. to the East coast next 7 days. Below is the NOAA DAY 7 PRECIPITATION FORECAST through WED 3/16 showing 10"+ for the Mississippi Valley, with the rain and humidity shifting East by next week.

BELOW
ENHANCED SATELLITE OF WESTERN U.S. SHOWS SETUP OF PINEAPPLE EXPRESS BRINGING HEAVY RAIN & HIGH WINDS TO PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST


BELOW
30 DAY PROJECTIONS SHOW INCREASED PROBABILITY 
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES + PRECIPITATION



For winter weather lovers in the Eastern U.S., we are sad to report you have reached the End of the Line this season.