Friday, January 22, 2016

A Storm of the First Order
THE EMPEROR WOULD BE PROUD

WINTER STORM WARNINGS FROM LOUISIANA TO PENNSYLVANIA 
  • BLIZZARD WARNINGS FROM WASHINGTON TO NEW YORK
  • UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN MANY LOCATIONS, SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR EXPECTED BY LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT AM.
  • WINDS OF 35 MPH+ FOR 12 HOURS OR MORE & THUNDERSNOW.
  • DO NOT TRAVEL AFTER 7 PM IF POSSIBLE


TIMING & IMPACTS
  • SNOWFALL & RATES. 2-3" an hour will be common from 11 PM Friday to 7 AM Saturday throughout the region from the middle and northern Eastern shore west to the DC/Baltimore region. If you anywhere between Richmond, VA and I-76 in PA, including the Eastern Shore of MD, 12-18" is possible on your doorstep by daybreak Saturday. Expect thundersnow tomorrow through Noon in areas bordering the Chesapeake Bay. Then the snow gets heavy. We are not making this up, honestly. See the impact timeline below.
  • BLIZZARD CONDITIONS with winds sustained at 35 mph+ for up to 12 hours in some locations. Do not go outside. Get all your outdoor prep done today, yes even after you get home following a full day of work. Tell the kids to hunker down with a Tolstoy novel or a 5000 piece puzzle, and a flashlight. They'll have a blast. We're not trying to be cavalier, we're trying to make a point: No one under this storm will be going anywhere for a couple days. 

IMPACT TIMELINE
This is an example of advance reports available through our Insider Service. 
This one was issued with our update last night at 7:15




QUESTIONS FOR YOU
  • What is your plan if you lose power? You better talk about it. Remember the Derecho? Irene? Sandy? Let's be honest and face the possibility you might lose power for 3-5 days. For those who think you're being alarmist, send them to us and blame it on Foots. For calmer heads, an excellent Red Cross checklist for Power Outages (print it out).
  • What is your plan for the children? In the Foot home, it was quite chaotic for the 2010 storms. Mrs. Foot ran the indoor program, Mr. Foot ran the outdoor recovery. You know how it was: Coffee, shoveling, eat. For several days. It was like a second full-time job. Another great Red Cross Checklist for Winter Storm Safety & Your Family. (print it out). 
  • Do you have:  Your prescriptions? Cash? Car tanked up? Water & food for 5 days? Gas & mix for snowblower? Salt? Raincoats? (hint: wet snow); Propane? 
  • Will someone be checking in with the elderly? Family AND neighbors. If you see an older person shoveling, consider offering to help if you can. We know older is better, but the alternative is a regret not worth having.
  • What about the pets?? Do you have enough food for 5+ days? We got in trouble with readers for suggesting not to take them for a walk on Saturday. When you see tomorrow's weather, we think you will understand. Until then, here is a Red Cross Checklist for Pets
  • Can we work on not having parking wars this time? Just help each other, it's not hard. If the lawn chair battle is going in your neighborhood
  • Electronics: Got a cell phone USB battery booster? It's worth having. Leave a USB cord in the car. Don't dump coffee on your computer, don't drop your phone in the snow or toilet.
  • Going to order stuff online in the down time? Think about that. When will delivery drivers get it to you?... if they have 2 feet of snow at their house too?  Set your delivery time in the order to... say, after President's Day. Well after.

REMEMBER THE SONG, "I Won't Back Down..."?
That seems to be what the US models are showing. View this map not as as an actual 'FORECAST' but an indication of how this event could significantly OVERPERFORM for some areas, and where sleet mixes in, UNDERPERFORM.


See the DARK BLUES? That's not 5-6" It's the other dark blue on right side of scale. We don't actually think this is PROBABLE, but with 2-3" an hour or more, it is not impossible. 

How do we know that? Because of what happened in South Carolina, Texas and the Mississippi Valley recently. All three were catastrophic high precipitation events that way out performed the models. El Nino has the big boy pants on this year and he is showing what he can do. Need some data to convince your supervisor? It's pretty simple. Look at east Pacific sea surface temps as measured were El Nino data is measured (see below for the chart)
  • The 2002-03 El Nino measure peaked at 1.2 deg C above normal. Result: Feb 2003 storms
  • The 2009-10 El Nino peaked at 1.3 deg C above normal. Result: Snowmageddon.
  • The 2015-16 El Nino is peaking at 2.3 deg C above normal! That is 43% higher than 2009-10. Is it a stretch to consider the mathematical hypothesis that this year could produce storms of a 25-40% greater magnitude than in 2009-10? Climatologists might scoff at the idea, but the data seems to be suggesting the Mid-Atlantic may be about to receive it's own El Nino Episode, starting today.
We really hope you are ready, or finishing getting ready, really fast. This is absolutely not a drill.

The Winter Stormcast Team of Foot's Forecast


From Forecaster Connor on Route 32 in Howard County MD

Below: The Oceanic Nino Index is the straight-on measurement of sea surface temperatures in a specific region of the equatorial Pacific where El Nino is sampled, called "Region 3.4"
The Fall 2015 numbers make weather and climate forecasters like us fall out of the chair.

Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO Weekly Report




163 comments:

BioPat said...

WOW!! I just read the late night posts from Andy and others. I am not shocked by the possible totals Andy is posting. The severity of this storm is not being downplayed and with Gov. Hogan declaring a State of Emergency so early on I am keenly aware his sources are giving him a very realistic picture. This truly could be a storm that takes us into new territory. We are as ready as we can be once I head out this morning to get the coffee, just going to Odenton so it will be a quick trip.

Stay safe all! I am so looking forward to our blogging for as long as the power and internet is up and running. Well reality time laundry and coffee are imperative I'll check in later and want to confirm the latest runs from Andy.

Amy said...

Not too happy about AACPS. My son goes to one of the Maher program so he's not out until 2pm and not to his bus stop until 245pm. Seems like an arrival of snow before then is a possibility. Too panicked?

Amy said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
NeedaSnowday said...

Good morning BP!
I see that you found your ability to login as "you"...😄 I, too, was just reading the totals, no.... gawking at the obscene number, that Andy posted from yesterday… And if folks weren't frequent-fliers around here, they might think he wasn't the sharpest tool in the shed.... Uhh, I'm here to say, he's one of the most knowledgeable and reliable sources when it comes to our local weather!! It looks like crazy talk at first!

I'm thinking I should probably get a little bit more firewood just in case the power goes out because that's my biggest worry... The mention of a roof rake makes me nervous.... Probably should power up the generator and make sure it's in good working condition! I did NeedaSnowday, I just don't NeedaSnow err, uhm, week!

Nicholas Schuman said...

Really hoping we stay in or around the 20 to 28 inch mark. Anything more would not be to nice. 36 inches of wind blown snow is going turn into 6 ft drifts. This isn't the go and build a snowman storm this is the hope you don't lose power storm. My huge question would be are the plows going to be able to plow once we start getting the wND whipped snow?

Amy said...

I lived in Minnesota for 4 years and plows can get through with wind shipped snow. The bigger issue is how much snow is laid down and how many trucks are there to plow it. We don't have the plow fleet that Minnesota does.

Amy said...

I lived in Minnesota for 4 years and plows can get through with wind shipped snow. The bigger issue is how much snow is laid down and how many trucks are there to plow it. We don't have the plow fleet that Minnesota does.

Snowplease said...

Andy do you think a dry slot could be a problem for the cities and to the east? The western burbs seem to be getting crushed and no dry slot

weed said...

why didn't AACO schools close...they are in the south....the snow will start there earlier.....I can see why my county is open but closing eary as I am in Carroll County but I agree with the poster about AACO....makes no sense.

I still have to go out and get stuff for the storm...yes I have procrastinated...my job is closed today and I am grateful for that so I can get ready.

This evening we will fill our bathtubs with water in anticipation of the power going out....I am on a well and everything is electric so when we lose it sucks twice as much:)

BTW I love this AM post from Foots....well done!!!

-weed

Snowplease said...

Welcome to the Blizzard of 2016 I pray that everyone stays safe and that if you can help your older neighbors shovel. The drifts should be amazing looking forward to some crazy pictures.

kristia35 said...

I'll be out at intervals all night shoveling for the dog path and just in general so I don't get behind the 8 ball. I have elbow grease and a shovel. That is all. Something tells me that my efforts will be in vain.

Butch Dynomite said...

Yeah..... Stack more wood

Julee said...

Wait, Andy... possible 40 inches????? I'm only 60 inches tall.
I'll have to wear high heels to shovel!!!!!

VeeDubTDI said...

LOL @ high heels to shovel!

I was looking at the snowfall projections yesterday and made note of the dark purple areas on the map. Now the most recent map has that interior tan color that hints of 48+" ... Incredible.

I'm heading out to get a few more last-minute errands done before the snow starts flying.

Amy said...

Weather underground shows onset of snow around 3pm. Does that sound reasonable for the Pasadena area? Trying too decide if I pick my son up early. He will walk on the door about then on he rides the bus home.

Tina said...

Julee, tie a bright helium balloon around your wrist, just in case you fall in a drift.

I kid, I kid!!!

I think....

Snowplease said...

This is a once in a lifetime storm never mind a once in a 1000 year storm lol some of the models are spitting out 40 inches our area is gonna be shut down for a while.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Julee,

More insane than a Charles Manson and Katlin Jenner wedding marriage announcement. It's not something you expect to see, but when it comes from a reliable source the reality if the madness just overtakes you. If the models are correct it will take my wife weeks to shovel out our driveway.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

I'm in the lovely hamlet they call Downtown Baltimore. Start time here around 3:00 pm and slowly but surely downhill from there. I'm about to get out of dodge!

Snowplease said...

Holy crap people this is really serious tie down anything that need to be and prepare for power outages.

High Wind Warning
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1105 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016

MDZ011-014-017-018-508-230015-
/O.NEW.KLWX.HW.W.0001.160123T0600Z-160123T1800Z/
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-ANNE ARUNDEL-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-
SOUTHEAST HARFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BALTIMORE...GLEN BURNIE...ANNAPOLIS...
SEVERN...SOUTH GATE...SEVERNA PARK...ARNOLD...ODENTON...
LEXINGTON PARK...CALIFORNIA...CHESAPEAKE BEACH...HUNTINGTOWN...
DUNKIRK...NORTH BEACH...LUSBY...PRINCE FREDERICK...ABERDEEN
1105 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM
EST SATURDAY.

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65
MPH...BECOMING NORTH SATURDAY.

* IMPACTS...DOWNED TREES... POWERLINES...AND MINOR STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE. DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES IN THESE CONDITIONS IS
DANGEROUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A DAMAGING WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE
WILL CAUSE TREE AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. ANTICIPATE POWER OUTAGES.
IF YOU LIVE NEAR LARGE TREES... REMAIN IN A LOWER LEVEL OF YOUR
HOME OR SEEK SHELTER ELSEWHERE IF POSSIBLE.

BioPat said...

Well, back from the coffee, gas, and liquor run. Snow blower was a pita to start in spite of being tuned in November. I was almost ready to throw in the towel and called our mechanic to come out and check it again but it finally kicked over. It is 20 years old this year and we do take care of it. I guess it, like me, is feeling its age so it takes a bit longer to get started.

It is brrr, cold outside. We were out putting some outdoor chairs and material away that we had been using just a few weeks ago. Snow shovels are out and ready for duty so bring it on!! The 40" snowfall and high winds could be a test for us all as I'm thinking the La Nina will trigger some nasty storms and close call hurricanes in the next few years.

Just watching the news and look like snow has already moved into the southern part of the State. St. Mary's County already showing snow and I'm sure we'll see something in the next 90 minutes.

Indi Martin said...

This is my first really major storm since I moved to the Hagerstown area from Oklahoma, and I tell you - I never realized how spoiled I was with meteorologists in Oklahoma. They are top-notch, and Tulsa - my city - was well covered, as well as all of the small towns that had to know when tornadoes were heading their way.

I'm SO thankful for you, because finding information relating to the Hagerstown area weather has been a nightmare. No one seems to focus on it! :( At least here I can pretty much tell what's going to happen.

weed said...

wow....some people still aren't taking this storm seriously!!!

The liquor store run is very important....I will be making that run myself in a little as I can't rely on my husband for THAT:)

Yes Hagerstown as well as a few other areas in the state get neglected I think at times like this but I expect you all will get a LOT of snow.

I got the 1st tub filled with water and of course it all drained out because the drain wasn't properly sealed....my god I am an idiot sometimes.

And a Snowblower that is 20 years old....YOU really got ur money's worth on THAT....mine was bought 2 years ago and has a push button starter on it which I love.

-weed

Darrin Watts said...
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Butch Dynomite said...

We have made multiple liquor runs this week :)

Westsidehideaway said...

Hi Gang. I'm at my desk in downtown Baltimore and I the place is emptying out. The US lacrosse convention is still on which is strange. Heading back to West Bmore around 2pm. Indi, I grew up in Hagerstown. You can be our Western Edge reporter. Just have to stack some more wood and then hunker down. Have Fun everyone.

Lisa Simeone said...

Suggestion for those of you who don't have garages: park your car, now, in a public parking garage. Pay whatever it costs -- usu $10 to $20 a day -- it's worth it. Then, when the main streets are cleared, if you truly have to go anywhere, you can just drive right out. You won't have to dig your car out, and you won't have to deal with the fact of no street parking available anyway in the coming days/week. During Snowmageddon we had piles of shoveled/plowed snow 6 feet high, as I'm sure you all remember.

Dollar Flipper said...

But Lisa, what if you like to use your car as a method of shoveling less snow? I drive a Scion xB and once the plow our parking lot, I pull out of the driveway and use a broom to get the snow off of the roof! :-D

1:28 and no snow in Frederick. All hunkered in and ready to party (shovel).

Lisa Simeone said...

Ah, you're in a different situation, Dollar Flipper. I live in Baltimore City.

Mike Demetrakis said...

It's interesting reading all of these different amounts from all the different sources. Like on this site kinda hard to imagine only up to 2 feet when we could wake up to 18 inches and the worst part of the storm is during the day Saturday.

But I feel we are due, we've dodged a lot of bullets here recently and mama nature is coming in with a attitude. I think 30 inch average for all of us.

Leslie said...

JUST starting in New Market, here we go!

kristia35 said...

Nothing here yet in NE BaltCo. I think many people out there are underestimating this event.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

But on Monday the local news said only several inches, no big deal. Same old song and dance all the time! LOL! If you have been here for years in our little community of demented snow maniacs you can understand.

Rufus said...

Some Flakes falling in Catonsville Bio Pat it is cold out.

Susan Lamont said...

First flakes on Kent Island!

Dollar Flipper said...

217 snow start in Frederick. Gotta make a quick beer run!

mapsrcool said...

Sidewalks and cars already covered here in Alexandria VA, starting to look pretty

BioPat said...

Innocently enough, the flurries have begun in Catonsville.

BioPat said...

Rufus, I thought I saw the snow flurries a bit earlier but had to go outside to be sure. I imagine it will start to pick up over the next hour.

Right now enjoying a cup of tea with honey cinnamon and lemon in honor of National Tea Day.

Annie D said...

Steady light snow in southern Carroll County now.

Lisa Simeone said...

National Tea Day? What a lovely idea. I'd have some tea if I weren't busy drinking a fine glass of rosé right now.

weed said...

Nothing yet in Hampstead....just went out and stocked all the bird feeders and squirrel feeders...temp has def dropped from this AM....one more beer run for me now that hubby is back from the store....he claims it wasn't that bad but he couldn't get gas....one station was out and the other was mobbed...I will try again when I go get my alcohol...we have a small driveway....our plan is to park both vehicles on the grass so that we can clear the driveway completely with the snow blower....we will see how that works out....stay safe everyone.

Amy said...

Snow started in earnest about30 minutes ago in Pasadena. Son is off the bus so I can kick up my feet with a glass of wine.

Amy said...
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JULIE SMITH said...

Snowing lightly at BWI. The snowblower is dusted off and the roof rake has come out of retirement since 2010. No manwhich tho :)

Julie
SMITTYWA

VeeDubTDI said...

The snow is flying in Springfield with accumulation on the roads. Several gas stations are sold out of gas, which makes me glad I have diesels. People appear to be quite panicked in their hunt for gas. It's amazing to me that they waited this long to stock up.

Lisa Simeone said...

I keep hearing about "roof rakes." Please tell me you folks aren't going to be scrambling on your roofs in 50mph winds?!

Rufus said...

Pat, The middle child stopped by and there were some flakes blowing around. I told him he needed to take this one seriously and not be out in it. I'm having a brew winter welcome ;) You tea sounds lovely though. Take care and I'll check in later...I am glad Jacob is in Edinboro and Mom is at Charlestown.

kmr said...

Snowing in Manchester. Let the fun begin. Get plenty of rest because shoveling out is going to be a bummer.

Lisa Simeone said...

Here in Baltimore city, the snowflakes have arrived.

BioPat said...

Correction not National Tea Day. January is National Hot Team Month in 2016

Morpheus said...

Been snowing now in Bowie for almost an hour and it has been picking up pace for the past half an hour. Drive covered. I have my Blizzard Stick ties to the tree for rough depth reading from the window. got the wood in garage and woodpile tarps weigh down with everything I can find. Grill and table secured. one car in the garage the other two lined up for easy plowing. ATV and plow ready to go. Picked up sticks on the sledding hill and did a two our conference call with work. Let see did I forget anything....Ohhhh noooo I am out of Madwich!!!

Westsidehideaway said...

Hi Lisa and All. Yep. Light stuff coming down in West Baltimore. Let the fun begin!!

ravensbbr said...

It begins here in NE CC. Tiny, minuscule little flakes...that just...won't...stop...ever?

HOOYAH, BLIZZARD 2016!!!

(PROGRAMMING NOTE: This poster refuses to pander to TWC and their self-appointed right to name storms)


:-D

Morpheus said...

Oh yeah even though I have a wood stove I have raised my heat (Have a dam heat pump) to pre-warm my house in case of power failure. If you have no secondary heat source this precaution might be a good idea for others as well. Also filling a tub to flush the toilet (not on city water.

Nicholas Schuman said...

Snowing pretty good by bwi.

Morpheus said...

I am with you ravensbbr, only the president should get the right to name a storm when he/she is making a wise crack to the press.

ravensbbr said...

I'd settle for the NWS doing the honors, Morph. Non-partisan, and they and NHC generally pick memorable names.

Peg McCarthy said...

Snow fall started right about 3P here in Cockeysville.

Morpheus said...

agreed - just making a little Snowmagedin joke. I personally like nameless snow storm, because then people have to tell you the year and describe it.

Julee said...

Prettily precipitating in Pikesville.

** Gosh Andy, hope your wife has been working out!
She's reeeeeally going to need some muscle in the next few days!

ravensbbr said...

Agreed, Morph, that's a good way to look at it. :)

Snoogins said...

I just have this feeling that it isn't going to be as bad as everyone thinks. I'm thinking dry slot and no redevelopment. Just a feeling....

Morpheus said...

Wow - just peaked at the composite radar - this beast has a tail that reached all the way down to Cuba!

Mike Cheuvront said...

Kitty condo reinforced. Kubota fueled up and right outside the door. 500lbs salt ready to spread. Wood stocked up high.

Now I need 30"+ for the storm of a lifetime.

Morpheus said...

Snow keeps changing directions...

Morpheus said...

Mike - Some time ago while I was in grad. School I lived on a gentlemen's horse "farm" in Balt county. Got free rent in return for work. My neighbor had a Kubota with a bucket that they would let me use. We had a very long private drive connecting a few properties. I pulled several cars/truck out of the snow when they slipped off the drive with that tractor and the bucket save my back countless times. They are nice pieces of equipment!

Mike Cheuvront said...

Very thankful to have the Kubota for sure. Hoping I get to help some others if it gets bad.

Brandi in DE said...

It's been snowing in Felton, DE since about 2:30. The side roads were covered quick and the main roads are getting covered now. I had to pick up my daughter and we slid twice on the way home. We were very prepared until i noticed a cat chilling by my neighbors garage door. I tried to get it but it ran to the side of my house and has been under a bush there for the last hour. I have no kitty shelter for it and I'm afraid if I put something near it she will run. So now I will have to do kitty checks!

Cathy in BelAir said...

Snowing in Bel Air!! Laying on deck and furniture. Here it comes, ready or not!

ravensbbr said...

Snoggins, I said the same thing in 2010...not saying it'll play out that way, but if you can get the radar loops from then, if memory serves, this doesn't look that different at this stage. Now I'll have to go look it up to make sure...



BioPat said...

I'm listening to the special news broadcast warning folks about the dangers of the storm while reading our blog of excitement for the same storm. It really is a matter of how you choose to look at life. I think most of us here see this as a great adventure; we understand the dangers but enjoy the hunt for the major weather events. These folks on press conference are describing the "disaster" we are facing Again it's all in how you choose to look at things. Just my take on the broadcast.

BioPat said...

My husband cannot find his boots and gators, I'll guarantee they're in the house and right where he left them, but for the time being no one seems to know where that may be. Does anyone else have these problems sometimes it just makes me crazy!!

mapsrcool said...

@BioPat - exactly! I'm a mountain climber and have climbed big peaks all over the world. So tomorrow, 35 - 45 mph winds and heavy snow - SWEET! The news says "stay inside or you'll die!" Me, I'm going hiking. It'll be just like on of my Alaska climbs, except significantly warmer and I won't have the thin air to deal with. Boo-yah!

Mike Cheuvront said...

I'm a kid all over again when this happens! Isn't being a snow lover a wonderful way to live life?

I think so!

NeedaSnowday said...

Ohhhh BP... I feel your pain... The huffing and puffing and exasperation ..... Typically whatever was lost is usually found… By me, not him! Then he looks totally bewildered, like, where did I find it?? .......exactly where you left it

BioPat said...

I need a "Like" button on this blog!!

Mari said...

I didn't like the naming of the storms until last night when my daughter sent me a couple memes with pictures of Nick Jonas. Oh my, that boy has really grown up well!!!

Sticking in Catonsville and hopefully both cats understand that they aren't going out until this stops. I am very happy that my profession enables me to work from home and that my boss is fine with that.

Now if the young man who shoveled me out last February shows up on Sunday, I will be ecstatic. I have the money to pay him, just need him to stop by.

Morpheus said...

First snow plow just came down my street, grass almost covered. I guess they are trying to get ahead of the Blizzard. In 2010, a county plow slid off the road onto my property, dug hug ruts and blow a radiator hose in the process...a wrecker had to pull it out.

I have always loved winter and snow storms. A friend and I skied into the high peaks region of the Adirondacks prior to a big storm for a three day backpacking trip. There was a 8-12 foot base of snow and on the second night my older -25 degree bag was not enough. I shivered all night even though our tent was setup in a lean-to to get out of the wind/snow. So being in a house during a Blizzard is well, cushy even if the power goes out.

Oh year BP - I miss place things all the time!

VeeDubTDI said...

Lisa Simeone: roof rakes are used from the ground. It's like a backwards shovel on the end of a long pole. You use it to pull snow off of the roof from below so that the weight of the snow doesn't damage your house. I have a 1950s house with a carport that is showing its age. I want to make sure that it doesn't collapse under several feet of snow. I plan on raking it with each foot of accumulation to be safe. This can also help prevent ice dams and overloading your gutters.

mapsrcool said...

@Morpheus - great story, I LOVE the 'Daks! I've climbed Marcy a few times and am going ice climbing there in a few weeks. It does get cold indeed at night. I love it that I can use all of my expensive climbing clothes in storms like this!

Morpheus said...

Indeed - Mapscrool, most years in MD we do not get the chance to use the gear...unless you travel.

Darrin Watts said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Snowbmore said...

Thoughts on dry slot sat morning in DC and Baltimore??

mapsrcool said...

@Darrin, it's obviously a fluid situation... For Alexandria VA, TWC just lowered their Sat snow total from 8/12 inches to 5/8.... but the NWS just raised it from 8/12, to 9/13 inches!

VeeDubTDI said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Snoogins said...

Still not buying into the whole situation. Quite a few snow holes developing to the south and anytime a storm has to reform off the coast it's a crap shoot. Time will tell I guess.

mapsrcool said...

@VeeDub - I hear ya, your description of Fox is the same for MSNBC of course, and the most of the others as well.

I'm kinda with Snoogins here, it seems to be moving too fast to give us that kind of accumulation. But I can't do billions of calculations per second like the computer models, so I'll put my trust in math

Snowplease said...

wow the twc is joke and comparing it to Fox News is pathetic let's stick to weather reports not tv stations and what they report.

Rufus said...

Bio Pat yes then when you find it they act like you moved it LOL. Hope he finds them soon. I hope all the heavy snow and thunder doesn't come in the darkness.

mapsrcool said...

@VeeDub - where are you BTW? I've shoveled twice and it's light/dry/fluffy stuff down here in Alexandria. Could probably use a broom until it gets too deep

Morpheus said...

You all must be kidding about the holes - this storm is a monster covering or touching at least 15 states. reforming off the cost is how we get almost all of our big snow storms. Big snow and winds will soon be on their way. Sit back relax, sip some of your favorite beverage, we have at least 24 hours to go.

Mike Cheuvront said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
VeeDubTDI said...

My apologies for bringing the news into it. Back to the weather... Snow and wind intensifying in Springfield.

Brad Richards said...

This is shaping up to be a big ol' bust. It's going to have to snow like hell to see 12" let alone 30. I always buy into the hype and it almost always busts.

Westsidehideaway said...

A little over 2" in West Baltimore. Wife is kicking my backside in Super Scrabble but the fireplace is rocking and all of feels great. How are all of you doing?

Snowbmore said...

Has anyone see the HRRR radar simulation and see the dry slot north of Baltimore develop? What are everyone's thoughts

Jason Wright said...

I've not seen any weather services, or major news services, do anything other than continue to raise the snow totals throughout the day and into the night. Yet folks on here keep saying no dice. What are those comments based on? Is there something substantial there are folks just being curmudgeonly?

Indi Martin said...

Still under 3" of very fine powder in Htown, plow trucks out in full force. As I understood it, I guess the heaviest snowfall and possible banding chances come later tonight?

Thanks everyone, it's fun reading your comments. :)

Brad Richards said...

Not curmudgeonly, a little disappointed perhaps, but that's it. We were supposed to have 5" of snow by now and we MAY have 2" in Ellicott City. Fine powder and not much coming down. Roads are a little dicey, but certainly not the snowmageddon prelude that was forecast.

Chuckie Ross said...

Bust? Where is that coming from? We are like 3 hours into this thing, that is supposed to last 30 hours. It isn't even supposed to be getting cranked up until after midnight. The storm is still developing.

mapsrcool said...

I have about 5.5 in Alexandria....

Wvmommyof5 said...

Snowing hard in Berkeley county WV. 6 inches so far! -Wvmommyof5

Adam Herb said...

2-3 inches in Roland Park. The dog and I were having a blast until the snow started coming at us sideways. I know nothing of reading weather instruments/maps, etc, but it just has a nice feel of "just getting started" out there.

Snowplease said...

Haha the storm is still in Greorgia Brad how can you can this a bust already.

Butch Dynomite said...

I don't know as much as many on this blog but I still feel pretty confident. I will say the plows are out and even my little neighborhood roads are great. We will see....

Snowplease said...

No plows in harford atleast in the neighborhood.

Wisconsin Native said...

So I have a basic question... I assume we cannot see all the moisture over the ocean because radar cannot pick it up correct? Honestly, the negativity is pretty annoying this early in seeing as though no one was predicting more than a couple inches until things start to pick up with the blizzard conditions. I am from Wisconsin and do not remember gusts and sustained wind speeds like what is being predicted. This should be a storm I will remember for awhile. I tend to forget things so there's that.

Also, Foot's Team: Great modeling and forecasting as usual. I feel like I learn something every time you guys analyze a storm instead of just giving a prediction without contingencies.

Westsidehideaway said...

Everyone needs to chill. Hang with the family. Enjoy the event. Don't worry about the forecast. I roasted a chicken. What are you having?

Wisconsin Native said...

I had chicken nuggets and boxed wine. I stay classy for events like this. :)

Kim said...

Anyone know where the best place to check official accumulations is? Thanks.

Snowplease said...

Spaghetti and meatballs lol.

Morpheus said...

4-5 inches here. We have had trolls before that say things to bate and try to create discord. Not saying we have one tonight and even if we do I say toll or foots regular listen to the wise words of Westside hideaway and enjoy what nature has in store without the weight of expectation.

Friday is pizza night at our house and we have kept the tradition even with the storm with a frozen pesto and a spinach organic pies that are quite good from Trader Joes.

Amy said...

White chicken enchiladas. I'm with Wisconsin and keeping it classy with boxed wine. I decided that a blizzard called for economy on the wine. A toddler and a preteen might call for some heavy consumption.

Amy said...
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Darrin Watts said...

Radar looks very impressive down the east coast. Another question. Is this the type of storm that will slowly move up the coast and spin...pulling in lots of Atlantic moisture?

Rufus said...

Crock pot white chili with chicken was tasty and a homebrew winter welcome....am thinking about a dark and stormy in my new copper since it's um dark and stormy :) Enjoy the evening the breeze is kicking up it's heels a bit. I seem to have a foggy memory of chatting with Terpguy back in 2010...3;30ish in the morning and not much was happening and I was bummed then I glanced at the barometer and I was thinking holy cow it's dropped and then the blizzard warning was blowing up my phone and the rest is history.

Brad Richards said...

Didn't realize sharing my opinion and reporting what is happening in my front yard would make me a "troll" and cause so much discord. I guess opinions and actual reporting aren't welcome here. Duly noted.

ilv2fly said...
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ilv2fly said...

6" in Crownsville, Maryland with horizontal snow. Beautiful!

DMoney said...

Hearty homemade beef stew over fresh Panera Bread hit the spot tonight!

Michael Watts said...

Brad Richards, they are saying you are a troll because the forecast was never to have 5" by now.
Most of the regulars on here follow lots of forecasts and know their "stuff"; therefore, it seems like you are
stirring the pot.

BioPat said...

Dinner menu sounds wonderful all, we just chilled this evening and looking at a hearty beef stew for tomorrow's dinner. I just gandered out the window at the snow and see that it is coming down at a steady clip with the winds definitely picking up.

Snow boots are still a mystery, quite honestly I just do not have the energy to tear into too may things today. The cold and trying to get that snow blower started did me in today. Perhaps tomorrow I'll be more inspired. Hard to imagine where boots are that have been hiding for over a year.

Just looked at the weather map on WBAL and this thing is just getting started. If we go back to Andy's original call of 30" I think we'll be close by the time it is all said and done. The Archbishop already gave us permission to miss Mass this Sunday and a later email has already cancelled all but the 10:45 Mass at the Basilica, and even that may go pending weather conditions. I'd say the power base of Baltimore and the State know much more than they are saying.

Enjoy the chatter all and have a drink of your favorite libation for me as well!

JMaschal said...

No one is trying to be nasty but just stating the facts. I think their is a lot of anxiousness around this storm and to be honest a lot of excitement for the powder hounds. This is only the beginning for those disappointed just wait it will come. I look forward to what we have to say tomrrow. Everyone be safe and hopefully everyone can enjoy this storm tomorrow. I know I will my kids are going bonkers already!!!!

Cathy in BelAir said...

Andy, I'm really missing your amusing but informative banter! I don't comment on here much, (my background is medical not meteorology), but since 2010 I bypass all other weather outlets and come hear for your take of what's going on, and what to expect. I respect your opinion and interpretations and at the same time I'm learning a little each year! Will we hear from you tonight?

JMaschal said...

Brad please don't take any offense and please post away. I am not one to post a lot but this is a great resource and out produces the media. Enjoy and be safe!

JMaschal said...

Also not much on the menu tonight but brining a pork shoulder as we speak. Tomorrow low and slow to make some roasted pulled pork with some Puerto Rician flare. Very excited for it!!!! Sunday will be roasted chicken. Maybe tomorrow I can mix in some adult beverages. Nothing like a Cold Dales Pale Ale!

Morpheus said...

This is such a big storm we are just on the forward edge, the action does no start, as just mentioned, until the low get off the cost, passes energy to another low (reorganizing). This process of Bombing out over warm water scoops up tons of moisture and energy. this is when the party ready gets started. The models have indicated that it will proceed very slowly, giving us a very long period of intense snow and winds. 2-3 inches per hour during this period is expected. You can do the math over 8 + hours that is a lot of snow. The there will be lighter wrap around snow as the low moves off until Sunday morning. In the end though it will be what it will be so just enjoy the ride...we do not get many of these perfect storms.

Sorry if I offended with the T word...was not aimed at any one poster. We really have had trolls and they are no fun.

Now I might just break out the Chocolate Beer and enjoy.

Westsidehideaway said...

Just grabbed some wood from out back for the fireplace. Here is my latest forecast update.

It's cold, snowing and blowing out there.

Rufus said...

Rufus is sitting at the back door watching the snow he thinks he wants to go outside but he is not! Wind is kicking up radar seems to be filling in...feels later than 9:47. Enjoy I'm staying up till it starts rocking and rolling.

BioPat said...

Just saw the Blizzard warning has been expanded. This thing is moving slower and it is colder than originally anticipated. So I-95 corridor will see more fluffy snow and much of the Easter Shore will see the wet snow. Snow totals will rise on this one as the target area has been expanded as well. I would not expect the storm to pull out until Sunday morning.

Snowplease said...

Only 2.5 inches in harford but the big dendrites are coming down at a good clip right now.

Westsidehideaway said...

Just stepped out again. It's really starting to bite out there. Close to 3" in West Baltimore. My wife is crashed on the couch so me and Zsa Zsa the Cat are looking out the window and hanging out. This is gonna be a big storm and one to remember no matter how many inches we get. Who's on Fallon tonight? Anyone know?

Syracuse1 said...

Jeff Daniels, Lilly Singh and musical guest St. Lucia

mapsrcool said...

Just did a nice 4 mile hike in Old Town Alexandria, it's really coming down! Wind is also picking up a bit, coming almost directly from the North. Probably have 6.5 - 7 inches here now and it's picking up... words cannot describe how much I love this weather!

DMoney said...

Just looked outside. Things are really cranking up here in Frederick. Heavy snow with wind...almost like watching water coming out of the shower! Stay warm, dry, and safe!!!

Snowplease said...

The nuking has commenced wow huge flakes!!!

ravensbbr said...

Dissent is good. Although personally I think we're going to get crushed, especially up here in the Highlands, the hottest fire makes the strongest steel. Groupthink/sheepthink is way worse then a discussion between differing points of view.

Saleta said...
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Sjc Al said...

5" Severna Park, wind is picking up.

weed said...

getting WINDY in Hampstead....we got about 3" so far

weed said...

forgot to add: 18 degrees but feels like 5

Westsidehideaway said...

Thanks Syracuse. If you are worried about losing power like I am, here are two tips before crashing for the evening.

One. Fill up two freezer storage bags with water and put in the freezer. Two. Take a shower. No power, no hot water, no shower. Might as well get one in now just in case. Good night John Boy. See you in the morning.

Tom Flanagan said...

I miss this so much, this atmosphere. I wish I didn't have to move to California. Nothing has ever excited me like a big snowstorm 😭😭

Unknown said...

Setop the camera for a times lapse... Snow is not really coming down that hard yet in Harford county... But the timelapse should go for a few hours so i might get an hour of snow climbing footage.

I think im to excited about this hahahah dont know why i am... But i do love me some of that snow

Unknown said...

Setop the camera for a times lapse... Snow is not really coming down that hard yet in Harford county... But the timelapse should go for a few hours so i might get an hour of snow climbing footage.

I think im to excited about this hahahah dont know why i am... But i do love me some of that snow

ilv2fly said...

Up to 8" now in Crownsville (just about due east of Annapolis, Maryland) and crazy wind howling!

Snowplease said...

I'm in harford and it just started pick up after a little lull bigger flakes atleast really windy too.

ilv2fly said...

That would be due west...not due east :-\

Butch Dynomite said...

Man I just walked .25 mile home from only bar open in area. I would have to say that it's pretty rough out there . Thankfully walk home was down wind . regardless of totals this sh!!t is pretty real right now wher I am .

Unknown said...

first post here... so happy to see others as excited for the storm as myself! some of those facebook pages can get so nasty and snarky... measured about 3.5 inches in Columbia a few hours ago, but haven't been back out since. hoping to hear some thunder overnight, and i'm looking forward to seeing what drops while i'm asleep. hope everyone is safe and sound. cheers!

Wisconsin Native said...

Really difficult storm to measure snowfall accurately with all the blowing. I've shoveled twice just so I could see where my sidewalks were and walkways. There's a lot coming down and I can only imagine there will be a lot to clear when it's all said and done.

Wisconsin Native said...

Measure as in eyeball your totals. I can see grass in some spots and know it's a foot deep in others. The cold blast is really making this snow light and fluffy in Glen Burnie.

BioPat said...

Couldn't sleep so got up to check the progress of the storm. Looks to be about 6-7 inches on the ground and coming down fast and furious. It is blowing hard and mini-drifts are already forming. I checked the heat pump and it is clear of snow at present so that's a good thing and it heats only the 2nd floor. Like others the threat of power loss continues to concern me so we will hope for the best outcome.

Andy must be busy watching the models and enjoying his favorite libation in his mancave. Perhaps tomorrow we'll hear from him as the storm continues. Good night all be safe.

ravensbbr said...

And here's your 4AM in depth, incredibly scientific and detailed weather update from the Highlands of the Mason Dixon area.

Snowing.

Windy.

A lot.

:-)

In all seriousness, looks to be about 8-9 inches, but drifts already to 2'+. The drive has a whaleback of close to 2' running down the length of it perpendicular to the wind.

Anyone else seeing a lack of moisture aloft over the Atlantic? Hoping the L catches up and keeps it spinning in...

NeedaSnowday said...

::: speechless ::: just looked outside and well, BBR like you, tough to gauge from just eyeballing it! Several drifts that will swallow up the pup!! Blowing and steadily coming down, err uhm, diagonal might be better way to describe it! Waiting on some daylight to be able to game plan for Operation Dig Out! How many more hours? Epic storm....

BioPat said...

Just woke up to thunder lightening and what may be sleet. AveMarie is saying no lightening strikes near us; me think she needs to look out the window!

Amy said...

Just unearthed the heat pump. Luckily snow was only 1/3 of the way up the side. Snow was knee deep on the side of the house due to drifts, but I have 1st least 8-9 inches of snow fall.

BioPat said...

I just read on FB that Catonsville has about 12" down. I did not think we had that much on the ground but I know some of the drifts are at that stage already.

BioPat said...

Turned the heat pump over to E Heat, not economical but will help clear the heat pump of any icy build up. Getting ready to go out and start the snowblower and get to work.

365 Dresses said...

When is the next update? suddenly snowing much harder here in Baltimore City!

Brandi in DE said...

Morning all! We have a foot in Felton DE. It changed to ice pellets for a bit and now back to light snow. Waiting for ridiculous winds this afternoon.

VeeDubTDI said...

We are still getting hammered with whiteout conditions here in Springfield. I raked part of the roof, but I'm starting to run out of places to put the snow.