Wednesday, January 20, 2016

This is not a drill.

This is not a drill.

DANGEROUS AND HIGH IMPACT STORM TO AFFECT
ENTIRE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST CORRIDOR 
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HEAVY SNOW & STRONG WINDS

BLIZZARD WATCH POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF BALTIMORE / 
WASHINGTON METRO - NORTHERN VIRGINIA & SOUTHERN MD
  • SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH OVER A 12-HOUR PERIOD OR MORE WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT POWER OUTAGES AND LOW VISIBILITY, MAKING TRAVEL IMPOSSIBLE IN AFFECTED AREAS.
  • MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC SHORE, STORM SURGES OF 3-5 FEET PROJECTED FOR COASTAL MD - DE - NJ. 
  • BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW IN NORTHERN AREAS OF THE WATCH WHERE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE HIGHER DUE TO COLDER TEMPS.
  • TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S DURING AND AFTER THE STORM WILL CREATE REFREEZING OF ANY AREAS CLEARED OF SNOW.


WINTER STORM SAFETY RESOURCES


"Your primary concerns at home or work during a winter storm are loss of heat, power and telephone service and a shortage of supplies if storm conditions continue for more than a day." - NOAA
In either place, you should have available:
  • Flashlight and extra batteries
  • Battery-powered NOAA Weather Radio and portable radio to receive emergency info 
  • Extra food and water such as dried fruit, nuts and granola bars, and other food requiring no cooking or refrigeration.
  • Extra prescription medicine
  • Baby items such as diapers and formula
  • First-aid supplies
  • Heating fuel: refuel before you are empty; fuel carriers may not reach you for days after a winter storm
  • Emergency heat source: fireplace, wood stove or space heater, properly ventilated to prevent a fire. NOT CANDLES OR INDOOR KEROSENE heaters
  • Fire extinguisher, smoke alarm; test smoke alarms once a month to ensure they work properly
  • Extra pet food and warm shelter for pets
  • Review generator safety. You should never run a generator in an enclosed space.
  • Home fires are common each winter when trying to stay warm. Review ways to keep your home and loved ones safe so you don't become an unnecessary headline. (FF)

WHERE IS THE STORM? The stream of energy rising from the Gulf of Mexico will be pulled into
that approaching band of activity in the Southwest to form a new low in the Southern Plains today.
6:30 AM EST 1/20 HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAJOR MID-ATLANTIC STORM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. (Forecaster Mike & the Winter Stormcast Team) Brisk and wintry greetings everyone! Shades of snowstorms past are appearing in this upcoming winter storm expected for Friday into Saturday. We are certain now that it is going to snow, the question is, how much? 

While we are seeing similarities to many of our high impact snowstorms of notable years, like February 2010, February 2003, and January 1996, the track is not set in stone yet. Since we are three days out still, there is time for things to change. However, it is rare to have this confidence this far in advance, and many factors could impact the timing and areas of heaviest snow.

For now, we have the scenarios we think are most likely to play out this weekend. As is our standard approach, tracing back to our coverage of the 2010 storms, we present a range of options from worst case to most disappointing and use models as guidance - not gospel - to inform our assessment of what is the most probable ground truth we all may see. See below the map for the scenarios.





SCENARIO A: 60% Chance – The Big Kahuna 
Have you been waiting since February 2010 for the next big storm? This scenario brings snow totals of nearly one foot or even more to much of central and western Maryland, northern/western Virginia, and West Virginia. 
  • The impact of this storm has the potential to surpass February 12-13, 2014, the Mid-Atlantic's last major snowfall. 
  • Combined with high winds, travel would be difficult to impossible for 36 hours starting when snow begins between late morning Friday and mid afternoon. 
  • Heavy snow continues overnight, and tapers Saturday afternoon. The map below from the US Global Forecast System shows surface pressure and precip as of 1 PM Saturday 1/23.





While this isn’t a lock yet, we do think it is the most likely scenario at this point, with a 60% probability of playing out. But weather is an inexact science, so here is how this could change. 
SCENARIO B: 25% Chance – Southern Special 
Contrary to Scenario C, cold air remains strong and the high pressure to our north prevents a weaker low pressure system from moving north. 

  • The result is the storm gets pushed out to sea and to the south. This would deliver a major snowstorm to parts of Virginia and North Carolina as well as into the southern Appalachians. 
  • The major cities of DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York, and Boston would be spared from the worst of the storm. 
  • The metro areas and those to the north would be under a very sharp cutoff of snow accumulation totals as you go north. 
SCENARIO C: 15% Chance – Wintry Slop 
This scenario would occur if the low pressure system tracks further north and closer to or along the Atlantic coastline
  • After the warm end to 2015, water temperatures are extremely warm in the Chesapeake and the Gulf Stream, compared to normal for this time of year. 
  • A low closer to the coast would surge warm air into the I-95 corridor, and switch snow to a wintry slop of snow, sleet, and then rain overnight Friday into Saturday. 
  • Snow accumulations would be significantly less, but still near 6" for those NW of the cities, while the cities get more slop. 
  • The bulls eye here is shifted away from central Maryland/northern Virginia, and into the Appalachian Mountains, the Blue Ridge, and up into Pennsylvania. 

What's the word for now? All data points to it being very likely (95%) that we much of the Mid-Atlantic will see snow accumulation, but remember that this far out in time, higher snow totals you may have seen on snow maps may have lower probabilities of occurring. If we see major snow becoming even more likely, we will continue updating you and share accumulation forecasts when confidence is high enough to present specific numbers publicly. 

If you need more detailed access to snowfall probabilities, and would like to receive advance internal reports by text, email and Smartphone, please consider registering as an Insider. A few readers already have and they are, shall we say, well in the know...well before the snow. We hope to see you there!

The FF Winter Stormcast Team

Contributors included Forecasters Connor M., Jason M., Troy A., Mike N., Joey K., Mintong N., Jake S., Meteorologists Jolene W., Pete W., Advisors Foot and Krichinsky


61 comments:

Vinart Dealerships said...

LET IT SNOW LET IT SNOW

scarletrobin said...

I find it interesting that the major media outlets in Baltimore have suddenly shifted to the model depicted as Scenario C - the worse over Virginia. Any idea why?

Mike Cheuvront said...

Because the model run a little while ago shifted south. The models are not in agreement. I keep saying it's too early. It all looks good, the amount of precip, cold air. But where the storm tracks is everything. Other players influence that such as where is the high pressure going to actually set up to our north?

When are we going to learn that 3 4 and 5 days away from an event is too far out to trust the models?

The models will shift back and forth until they dial in what is going to happen within a more specific area.

Hang in there. Nothing is set in stone. We should not work ourselves up into a frenzy.

Westsidehideaway said...

Scarlet, you said what I was thinking. At 6:30pm WBAL radio said it was headed south following a Euro model report that broke earlier.

weed said...

I believe there are 6 models used.....can anyone confirm or deny this.....i am guessing that if most of these models are showing less snow for us than that is what the mainstream media will predict.

Does anyone know which of the models is usually correct when predicting our weather???


-weed

Morpheus said...

Whoooo Hooo - Finally my area is in the sweat spot {Bowie} as far as tonight's Foots scenarios go...I am in the major snow area for A and C which give me a 85% chance of winning the snow lottery! I am liking these odds! Usually I am in the 85% chance of rain to snow or snow to rain...so I am one happy snow seeker! Now just have to wait for tonights oz model runs and see what the soothsayer from the north thinks, held up in his cabin, fingering his moonshine and manwich, sniffing for snow.

Morpheus said...

ooops Senerios A and B I mean....no, no, no, no, do not want to encourage C, having flashbacks to the last few winters.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

The whole area is in the sweet spot. Amazing consistency. 20 to 30 inches seem like common totals. Blizzard warnings likely for much of the area. Impressive system! We know what is on the table, no sense in trying to micro analyze at this stage. We can do that Thursday.

Snowplease said...

Even for us closer to the bay Andy the bay wont cause some mixing issues? You mountain men don't have these problems lol.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

My ideas have not changed. Operational Euro and gfs agree on a general 24 to 36 type snowfall. Expect winter storm watches, blizzard watches, hazardous weather statements, and civil emergency notices. Winds could gust to 60mph. This is the real deal. Welcome to the blizzard of 2016z

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
520 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016

MDZ003>006-501>507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501>508-WVZ050>053-
055-501>506-211000-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-
NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTGOMERY-
NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD-
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-WESTERN LOUDOUN-EASTERN LOUDOUN-
NORTHERN VA BLUE RIDGE-CENTRAL VA BLUE RIDGE-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-
BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-
WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-WESTERN PENDLETON-
EASTERN PENDLETON-
520 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A HIGH THREAT FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS
DUE TO ROAD AND AIRPORT CLOSURES...AS WELL AS THREATS TO LIFE AND
PROPERTY. PLAN AHEAD TO MINIMIZE IMPACT ON YOU AND YOUR FAMILY.
A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY NOON TODAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

kristia35 said...

QPF maps are insane. The only time being in the red is a good thing!

weed said...

I will ask again....how many models are there and which model(s) are the most accurate for our area???

thanks,
weed

Mike Demetrakis said...

Andy as I read what your saying with a general 24-36 inch storm. Justin berk went way low ball and said 10 plus. Is he just trying to play it off and not cause panic?

Butch Dynomite said...

I go to unisys weather it has four models. I think- the major ones. People would be reluctant to answer the question about best model though because from what I understand its not especially useful to follow a model prediction. I'm pretty sure some of those guys on T.V. and those constantly changing weather aps just blindly follow models. That being said people seem to favor the European model probably because of its progressive social policies.

kristia35 said...

Weed,
I don't know that it's based so much on the specific area we live in but more so on how the different models handle different setups and what their track record has been. Probably a good question for Andy though.

kristia35 said...

Oh and timeframe plays a role worth some models.

weed said...

ok thanks everyone....as the saying goes "time will tell"....this is still very exciting...and I see that weather.com NOW has my area (Hampstead) snow totals back UP at 8-12....yesterday they were way down 3-5.


-weed

Westsidehideaway said...

Hi all. Greetings from West Baltimore. Al Roker just put Bmore in the 18-24" band. Up to 36" in mountains of Va and WVA. It credited the Euro model. Should be fun. See all of you later. No off to work for crisis mgmt planning for this event. Like I said. Should be fun.

Anonymous said...

So where does this Andy guy get 2-3' feet for the Baltimore area? I don't see numbers that bullish anywhere else--even in places that often go on the high side.

Morpheus said...

Weed - Justin Berk does a good job of comparing,contrasting and explain what he see's in the major models on his website. Here is a link with his first call on snow total estimates but if you go back a post or two he run though the models...Enjoy! We are in for a real snow storm (I am originally from the northeast)! http://news.justinweather.com/2016/01/20/first-call-for-snowfall-weekend-jan-22-to-24/

weed said...

thank you Morpheus....I will check out Justin's website:)

-weed

Snowplease said...

Haha cantore is going to Dc guess they are doomed lol good thing he isn't going to Baltimore.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Kristina is 100% spot on. Snow ranges are calculated using liquid qpf data. I am using 12:1 ratios. 2.6 inches of liquid yields 31.2 inches of snow. Factor in convective banding will lead to higher totals where those bands set up. This is a general 2 foot storm but totals will approach 3 feet in area that are banded. The storm will likely start close at a 10:1 ratio but as it bombs out snow liquid ratios will increase to much higher. I went with 12:1 as an overall average. Snow totals are qpf x ratio. Convective banding is always the wild card. Regardless, based in all reliable and available data 2 to 3 feet is a reasonable expectation in the region. I simply share my thoughts with people here and base my thoughts in the best available data and experience. Local media really does a disservice to the public by not laying out the scenarios for people and setting false expectations not grounded upon the best available data. When a DJ or random tv talking head says we expect several inches
of snow or when every reliable piece of information says otherwise that puts people in danger. The public has a right to know what is being tracked and what to expect based upon reliable data.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Not much time to elaborate, but this is why Foots Forecast is really a go to place for weather information. This site tells you the scenarios and does not hide the ball or dance around like some broadcast media outlets that are staffed with individuals with communication backgrounds and little more. For me this is fun and as a winter weather enthusiast that's what we have here year in and year out. Just some honest banter about important weather topics.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the explanation Andy! So in this scenario, it sounds like you are expecting little to no mixing. That would be fantastic.

Westsidehideaway said...

So. We are in for the The Big One,Edith!!

Snowplease said...

They pulled out the BLIZZARD WATCH watch it's getting serious folks let her rip the beaches are gonne get hammered with wind.

Snowplease said...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1013 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016

DCZ001-MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508-VAZ052>057-505-506-
202315-
/O.NEW.KLWX.BZ.A.0001.160122T1700Z-160124T1100Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTGOMERY-
NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD-
SOUTHEAST HARFORD-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-WESTERN LOUDOUN-EASTERN LOUDOUN-
1013 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A BLIZZARD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND WIND. A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING EAST OF INTERSTATE
95...BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW ON SATURDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW.

* TIMING...FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOW...STRONGEST WINDS...AND POTENTIAL LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS AND WILL BE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY. TRAVEL IS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERELY LIMITED IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE DURING THE
HEIGHT OF THE STORM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. VISIBILITY WILL
BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN SHIFT NORTH SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

* TEMPERATURES...MID TO UPPER 20S MOST LOCATIONS. UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

USE THIS ADVANCE NOTICE TO PLAN AHEAD! ADJUST TRAVEL PLANS...AND
PLANNED ACTIVITIES. STOCK UP ON NECESSITIES. MAKE PLANS FOR
ELDERLY FAMILY AND THOSE MOST AT RISK. PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
POWER OUTAGES DURING SNOWY AND COLD CONDITIONS. USE THIS TIME TO
MINIMIZE IMPACT ON YOU...YOUR FAMILY...AND YOUR COMMUNITY.

&&

$$

kristia35 said...

Are we assuming 12:1 the entire time (excluding banding)?

Mike Demetrakis said...

With temps in the mid 20's I would figure. Maybe even a bit higher?

Kathi said...

Heading to Walmart! I just hope there's something left on the shelves! Hubby can't find the snow shovel, what do you think my chances are of finding one at this point? At least we have the snowblower!

kristia35 said...

^^Yep. That's what I was wondering Mike. Will be interesting to see as we get closer to zero hour.

Caitlin said...

Hi all! Foot...someone...anyone...can you give me some advice?

I have to work in NYC this weekend and I need to be there by 1pm on Saturday. I live in Baltimore and I work on Friday night, so I wouldn't be able to leave at the earliest until late Friday night. When should I ideally leave in order to safely make it to NYC by Saturday morning? I'm wondering if I could beat the worst of the storm, since it's moving North slowly at that point. I'm nervous. :-(

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Catlin,

Unless your train leaves Friday am you are not going anywhere anytime soon in a storm like this. This storm as it is being forecast is a life threatening civil emergency. I image all transportation will be shut down by noon Friday if not earlier. I am certain if forecasts continue as expected a civil emergency will be declared by Governor Hogan.

Adnoh said...

Correct me if I am wrong, but the GFS model is predicting more snow for the Baltimore area in the last couple runs? And the overall blending of the models seems to be that this thing is going to be getting more powerful?

-Adnoh

Snowplease said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Snowplease said...

Doubt they will allow travel at all.

Mike Cheuvront said...

The Canadian (GEM)model and GFS have a general 20"-30" snowfall for the majority of Maryland.

Go to www.weatherbell.com and look at the short video by Joe Bastardi on the right side.

He shows the blends of these two models with amounts to the north west of DC 40" the other has that much just north of Balto.

Cool maps but just model runs.

Amy said...

YES!!! Dick's in Glen Burnie still has a decent selection of all snow attire. Heading to the store and doing the happy dance the entire way.

Loosend said...

Its just so wonderful to see everyone again, especially under the circumstances!! :)

keith42 said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
keith42 said...

JustinWeather is saying 10-16" for Baltimore. That, according to every other model I've seen (Accuweather forums, Foots shows many models with the recurring range being 24 to 40") is woefully underestimating the severity of this storm. Why the front door would he do that?

Adnoh said...

I think JustinWeather was referring to those totals as the bare minimums that they were forecasting.

-Adnoh

Morpheus said...

Keith42 - it says "First call for Snowfall (Lowest Confident Number" and it is 16+ inches. Seems reasonable to me since he posed this early this morning. He also has the GFS Snowfall Projection and Canadian Model Snowfall Projection lower down the post with much higher modeled numbers.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Based on all guidance there is no need to complicate or split hairs at this range. High confidence in a widespread bonafide howling wind Blizzard with winds gusting to near 70mph near the immediate bay and over 50mph for most of the area. Snowfall totals for ease and simplicity will be a widespread 20 to 30 inches with spotty totals even higher in convective banding. One for the history books! ENJOY!

Mike Demetrakis said...

Us police dispatchers are celebrating everywhere, said no dispatcher...ever

Unknown said...

Garth Brooks concert tickets for friday night in Baltimore. Anyone's thoughts on it being cancelled?

Snoogins said...

I read midday models went south again. Any impact/truth to this?

Loosend said...

Boy, the temperatures look like they will hover around the 32 degree mark during the Saturday portion of the storm. Think it will kill a good bit of snow totals? Seems funny that the temps would be that high considering all of the cold air already in place now. Thanks

Loosend said...

Andy-I am even buying lots of Manwich.

keith42 said...

I'd say since snow will just be starting around rush hour, they could technically pull it off, but I'm pretty sure it'll get cancelled/postponed, since getting OUT of Baltimore could pose an issue for ol' Brooksie.

Amy said...

YES!!! Dick's in Glen Burnie still has a decent selection of all snow attire. Heading to the store and doing the happy dance the entire way.

Anon Anon said...

Could Delaware exist please? I feel so left out. Baltimore and DC with a blizzard and Philly and NJ with Winter storm watches, but poor Delaware is just forgotten.

~Tiny Delaware powderhound~

BioPat said...

Waiting and watching. Husband made me do the grocery run this afternoon after school. Stores were not too bad and everything well stocked. I dare say that will not be the case tomorrow afternoon. I am so looking forward to watching the snow, really have always loved it and now I have enough sense to stay home when things get bad.

Westsidehideaway said...

We are stocked and ready in West Baltimore. Tasselmeyer just said the snow won't start until 7pm so rush hour should be fine Friday.

Snoogins said...

Andy local Baltimore Mets going with lower totals. Any thoughts on this?

Tina said...

Anon anon, I'll hold your hand in lower DE. Not too worried about the snow... just dread the wind!!

Anon Anon said...

Thanks Tina! I'm in Kent. I've also heard we are to get the brunt of the winds. I'll be charging all electronics in advance!

weed said...

To all the peeps in Delaware....I lived in South Bethany Beach for many years and have very fond memories of that state and that community....it will be a full moon this weekend....I hope there is still a Bethany Beach left when this thing is over.....stay safe everyone and just like when I lived at the beach I am on a well and have electric EVERYTHING....I will be filling the tubs with water on Friday as well as filling those large plastic zip lock bags with water and storing them in m freezer tomorrow night....better to be safe than sorry if I lose power:)

-weed

ravensbbr said...

Latest GFS/NAM runs do seem to be dragging this one more coastal now...which isn't bad for Central MD, keeps us firmly on the snowy north/west side...what could be additionally problematic is the rain and snow event forecast at this point for later next week after the Kahuna buries us...looks like another, smaller nor'easter...?

Please bear in mind the if one combines my aforementioned raw and rough analysis and also has 50 cents in one's pocket, the sum total of both is worth exactly one half dollar. Donations accepted. :-P