Thursday, January 21, 2016

What Can You Do?
Stay calm. Be Patient With Others. Prepare. Communicate. Get Rest.

EXCELLENT WINTER STORM SAFETY CHECKLIST VIA THE CDC



11:30 AM EST 1/21  STORM TIMING & IMPACT SUMMARY
  • BLIZZARD WARNINGS posted for the I-95 CORRIDOR FROM WASHINGTON TO PHILADELPHIA AND THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE for 12-18" of snow near and along the Chesapeake Bay. 18-24" for inland areas north and west of I-95.
  • Higher amounts are possible in areas where the heaviest snow bands develop.
  • This will be an extremely dangerous and life threatening storm. 
  • Please make the necessary preparations to protect your family and property.
FORECAST OVERVIEW: ALONG & WEST OF I-95 TO THE BLUE RIDGE & NORTHERN VIRGINIA & SOUTHERN PA. AREAS OF THE EASTERN SHORE IN NEXT SECTION.

Please consult your NWS point and click forecasts for the latest official statements.



  • TODAY & TONIGHT - Cold and mostly clear with highs 30-35 F, lows near 20 F. NWS Image below is from Rockville MD as a representative location. 
  • For anyone south of the PA/MD line, this is a general overview of what to expect for Friday. We believe dry air should negate the first few hours of snow other than Northern & Central Virginia. If you are north of MD or on the Eastern shore, snow is not expected until after 6 PM Friday.
  • FRIDAY - AM Flurries followed by occasional & scattered light snow between 12 - 4 PM. Accumulating up to 2" by 8 PM. Snow becomes heavy after sunset, with up to 12" possible in many areas by daybreak Saturday.

  • SATURDAY - Heavy snow throughout the day, winds 35 mph at times with higher gusts. Snowfall of 20-24" will be common throughout regions under a Blizzard Statement or Winter Storm Warning. Travel will become impossible. Periods of extremely heavy snow are possible 12 PM - 6 PM due to explosive development of the Low pressure expected along the Bay. 
  • Widespread power outages are expected. Do not try to walk the dog because it looks like things are clearing up. You may not come back alive from the walk. We are always terribly saddened to read about that in the news. Please keep your children in your eyesight at all times. Reading a book is far better than the alternative.
  • SUNDAY - Snow should begin tapering by morning with winds remaining at 15-25 mph and higher gusts until afternoon.
We will work the storm with you and send our warmest wishes for your safety in what will be a most difficult time for everyone affected.
From all of us at Foot's Forecast



6:20 AM EST 1/21 (Winter Stormcast Team Statement) The Mid-Atlantic and surrounding region is less than 48 hours away from what could be a historic snow for millions. Granted, those in the upper Northeast, Rockies and other snowy places might say, "2 feet? That doesn't even close school where I come from." 

But in the metros of Gotham, it is a different story. Put 24 hours of snow on top of millions of people in close proximity and... well, we can leave it there for now. 

We have prepared this storm summary with some safety recommendations to follow from the good folks at NOAA and Homeland Security. First, our preliminary snow map:


WHAT'S THE LATEST? 

A BLIZZARD WATCH has been posted for the entire Central Maryland and Northern Virginia region with Winter Storm Watches for the surrounding areas. This means there is even more potential for serious and life-threatening impacts, including property damage. 
  • Strong onshore winds will accompany the heavy snow bringing an increasing potential for power outages with the weight of the snow on power lines and tree limbs. 
  • Serious travel hazards will remain throughout this storm. Make sure your family has what it needs to stay safe and well-prepared in this storm.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS Our team expects this storm to produce major to possibly historic snowfall totals for portions of the Mid Atlantic. 
  • We expect a swath of 16-24" inches over much of the Baltimore/Washington metro region, extending to the WV panhandle, northern Virginia into southern & SE PA.
  • Where heavier bands may develop, and in more rural or mountainous areas, the potential exists for 30 inches and perhaps more.
  • To the south, we expect 10-16 inches for much of Southern Maryland, with slightly lower totals for the far southern tip
  • For the lower Eastern shore, 6" is possible along the coast and 12"+ inland 
WHERE IS THE STORM?
Currently developing in the central Plains as seen here. Take note of the extensive plume of moisture coming up from the Gulf of Mexico. That actually connects clear back to the Equator, which is why there's such intense potential for heavy snow.


WINTER STORM SAFETY

From the NOAA Winter Weather Safety Site: "Your primary concerns at home or work during a winter storm are loss of heat, power and telephone service and a shortage of supplies if storm conditions continue for more than a day." - NOAA   



RECOMMENDED WINTER STORM SUPPLIES
  • Flashlight and extra batteries
  • Battery-powered NOAA Weather Radio and portable radio to receive emergency info 
  • Extra food and water such as dried fruit, nuts and granola bars, and other food requiring no cooking or refrigeration.
  • Extra prescription medicine
  • Baby items such as diapers and formula
  • First-aid supplies
  • Heating fuel: refuel before you are empty; fuel carriers may not reach you for days after a winter storm
  • Emergency heat source: fireplace, wood stove or space heater, properly ventilated to prevent a fire. NOT CANDLES OR INDOOR KEROSENE heaters
  • Fire extinguisher, smoke alarm; test smoke alarms once a month to ensure they work properly
  • Extra pet food and warm shelter for pets
  • Review generator safety. You should never run a generator in an enclosed space.
  • Home fires are common each winter when trying to stay warm. Review ways to keep your home and loved ones safe before, during and after the storm. 
Our next update at 11:30 AM to revisit computer model projections.

86 comments:

VeeDubTDI said...

Giggity :D

I got everything prepared today - grocery shopping, fuel for generator, bought a roof rake, cleaned up loose items outside the house. We are ready to go!

Tina said...

LOL!! I just saw it referred to as Snowblivion over on accuweather's forum!!

Snoogins said...

Wxrisk just posted that this is going to be a 2 part storm, not one long duration event and something about a dry slot developing and moving east and a break in the snow overnight Friday and then starting again Saturday. This is the first I've heard/read this anywhere. Do you agree with this analysis?

ravensbbr said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
ravensbbr said...

Latest GFS/NAM runs do seem to be dragging this one more coastal now...which isn't bad for Central MD, keeps us firmly on the snowy north/west side...what could be additionally problematic is the rain and snow event forecast at this point for later next week after the Kahuna buries us...looks like another, smaller nor'easter...?

Please bear in mind that if one combines my aforementioned raw and rough analysis and also has 50 cents in one's pocket, the sum total of both is worth exactly one half dollar. Donations accepted. :-P

kristia35 said...

DT is in Virginia so he may be reporting an analysis for his region. I haven't read it though.

Morpheus said...

mightily quiet tonight. I though this clipper was good for a dusting, I have an inch on the ground now and was supposed as I was out shopping this evening how quickly it stuck on the roads with the cold temps we have been having. looking at the radar even this clipper is pulling moisture from the gulf...I take this as a good sign for the next one!

Morpheus said...

surprised...not supposed. ;-/

weed said...

Morpheus have u seen the videos from DC??? This clipper is causing major issues down there:(

Butch Dynomite said...

Still have to take some things out of the backyard.... Probably put another nights worth of wood on the porch. maybe batten a few things I guess....but man do people really eat that much bread!? I might start baking tonight and set up shop in a parking lot tomorrow after seeing the herd in the bread isle this afternoon.

Butch Dynomite said...

Plus this clipper will stoke the fervor tomorrow

Morpheus said...

Hey Weed I did not, traffic issues?

Morpheus said...

I agree Butch, as the confidence level increases and Blizzard watches turn to warning it is going to get crazy out there tomorrow.

weed said...




yes traffic.....cars sliding off roads....icy..just terrible!!!

I am waiting on Justin Berk's weather update and noticed the tweets he was getting about it from his followers.

-weed

Tom Flanagan said...

God how I miss this.. Moved from Annapolis to San Francisco this summer ;( the nostalgia hurts. I know how exciting these storms are. Enjoy every moment of it powder hounds!

Snowplease said...

THERE IS A MILD CONCERN WITH TIMING OF ONSET. GFS IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE
ECMWF HOWEVER...MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS SNOW BEGINNING ACROSS
CENTRAL VIRGINIA FRIDAY MORNING MOVING NORTH AND EAST TO THE
WASHINGTON DC/BALTIMORE CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
ON FRIDAY.
(snip)
MOISTURE FIELDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW 2-2.5 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND THIS COUPLED WITH 12 TO 1 RATIOS GIVE 1.5-2 FEET ACROSSUCH OF THE AREA. A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.
(snip)
SLEET IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND BUT COULD STRETCH AS FAR
NORTH AS BALTIMORE/HARFORD COUNTIES. THIS WOULD HAMPER SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA. THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF SLEET IS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MD AND STORM TOTALS REPRESENT THAT.
(snip)
THE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SNOW
SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY BEFORE SNOWFALL ENDS. GUSTY WINDS ALONG
WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
Of course harford county will have sleet problems always do and always will. Need to move up with moutain men I'm tired of this lol.

Amy said...

Roads are bad, stay safe of your commute. Accidents have both 29-70 ramps closed, not sure of direction. Two hour delays in both AA and HoCo. Nice screw up to the exam schedule but I'm sure my white knuckle ride into hoco will prove the necesssity

Mike Cheuvront said...

Expected to see more of a surface evidence on the radar this morning.

Could be getting it's act together down south but looks disorganized.

CONCERNS??? Or just forming slower?

Mike Demetrakis said...

Justin berk just lowered his totals due to mixing all the way to 95. Wxrisk said no mixing at all. So who knows.

Pat Abrahms said...

You are right Amy. John just left, in spite of the fact I asked him to wait for sunrise. All I am hearing on the news are is about multiple accidents on 29 from 70 down to 32. Drive carefully everyone!

I think it is interesting that this storm generated much more snow than anticipated and may be a sign of what we can anticipate over the weekend assuming all things continue to track as currently forecast. Most are expecting this huge storm to move slowly which could leave us with quite a mess. I'm betting if things continue to materialize we won't see school until Wednesday at the earliest.

BioPat

Pat Abrahms said...

Mike, yes, there may be some mixing on Saturday but I believe they are watch for that east of I-95. They do expect a lull in the storm early on Saturday then it should intensify through early Sunday. (BioPat)

Mike Cheuvront said...

Mike,

This is why I remain a skeptic with such outlandish computer model runs days before any storm here.

Too many storms over the last 50 years in this techno age have been built up and come to nothing.

I AM NOT SAYING THIS STORM IS A BUST! I am just saying for me personally, until I see it on the way and get a feel for the track I am not getting sucked into the hype.

Been there, done that and been crushed so many times expecting the big snows and getting disappointed.

Anonymous said...

Am I missing something with the 0620 update? It looks like it is the same info as last night just with the new date and time. The map is still from 7 last night. A lot of other outlets are showing some more uncertainty today, so it would be pretty cool if they are still sticking by last nights map.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

I have always liked the average 12:1 ratios for our area. For the northern crew ratios could average as high as 14:1 near the Mason Dixon. With 2 inches plus qpf it won't be hard to reach 20 to 30 inch numbers. Models don't model banding well and if you land under some of the most intense bands your totals could be epic.

Pat Abrahms said...

I agree with you Andy. For once, the media has not overplayed this yet. The gocery stores are already emptied I can only imagine today, then let folks know just how serious this storm may prove to be come Saturday.

Just got a phone call from my husband attempting to make his way to school in HOCO, He is caught on ice covering Rt 40 and said the buses have not begun to move. I just ran to grocery store to pick up eggs and found the roads on the lot icy as well. Now that the sun is up I hope the roads will clear quickly (maybe).

Snoogins said...

Actually Berk raised his totals. Not sure what map or update you are looking at. But there does seem to be some hesitating this morning, so maybe things won't be as bad as originally thought.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

I really am not certain what rational some tv forecast outlets use when giving a forecast or forecast idea. I do not rely on tv for weather predictions as some are laughable and based on nothing but pure speculation. This storm has been handled remarkably well by the globals.

Rufus said...

I have not seen much hesitation on the sites I follow....maybe start time. Pat the roads seemed to have cleared i came in about 8:30 but was still mindful. Take care

Morpheus said...

Foots team I commend you on warning and caution you are put out in your 11:30 am update!

"Do not try to walk the dog because it looks like things are clearing up. You may not come back alive from the walk. We are always terribly saddened to read about that in the news. Please keep your children in your eyesight at all times. Reading a book is far better than the alternative."

For folks that have never been in a blizzard this is essential information and I am glad to see it here. Keep up the excellent work with what is forecast to be an historic storm for this area!

Tim Wolfrum said...

What are your thoughts for Southern MD, most everyone has dropped their totals way down since we are so close to the Bay and have said the warmer air will change over most of our snow to sleet/freezing rain and rain for most of Saturday. Do you believe this is the case? We are under a blizzard watch still which says 18-24" but all forecasts for our area are now only calling for maybe 5-10" total. Thanks!

Rufus said...

Now a BLIZZARD WARNING

Snowplease said...

Blizzard Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1209 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016

MDZ004>006-011-507-508-220115-
/O.UPG.KLWX.BZ.A.0001.160122T1700Z-160124T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.BZ.W.0001.160122T2300Z-160124T1100Z/
FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
NORTHWEST HARFORD-SOUTHEAST HARFORD-
1209 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM FRIDAY
TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND WIND WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SLEET MAY MIX WITH
THE SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING EAST OF INTERSTATE
95...BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 18 TO 24 INCHES IN THE
EASTERN SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE...AND 24 TO 30 INCHES IN THE
WESTERN SUBURBS. THE CITY OF BALTIMORE IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
AROUND 24 INCHES.

* TIMING...HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE
FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW... STRONGEST WINDS...AND
POTENTIAL LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS AND WILL BE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY. TRAVEL
IS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERELY LIMITED IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE DURING
THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. VISIBILITY
WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH...BECOMING NORTH SATURDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...MID TO UPPER 20S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE. PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
POWER OUTAGES DURING SNOWY AND COLD CONDITIONS.

&&

$$


Hazardous Weather Outlook

saraleecz said...

Great job keeping us informed on all of the details, as well as common sense warnings. Keep up the good work you guys, and keep educating!!

Mike Cheuvront said...

WOW!

Snowplease said...

Hogan just declared state of emergency for Maryland and dcand Virginia declared too.

Melinda Welsh said...

What's our chance of no school, school closing early, or schools not doing anything?

Snowplease said...

The schools will be open Friday this shouldn't really start till the afternoon and after rush hour.

dukeofpups said...

Just heard (and verified) that Carroll County Schools are closing 3 hours early tomorrow. HoCo has a half day already scheduled.

dukeofpups said...

Thirty seconds after I posted, I got an email from HoCo:
ALERT: An important message from the Howard County Public School System

All Howard County public schools and offices are closed tomorrow, 01/22/16.

All evening activities in schools, both school-sponsored and community-sponsored, are canceled. This includes high school athletic practices and games.

Details on high school exams and weekend activities will be forthcoming.

Mrs. A said...

We have a ski trip going out to Seven Springs on Friday with return scheduled for Sunday early afternoon. Several of us this morning were discussing liability issues should Baltimore County cancel all weekend activities. I think there is a huge liability trying to get those kids home on Sunday and assuming either parents can get to school to pick them up or worse yet let high school students drive. My feeling is if they do go it would be more prudent to stay over Sunday night and not return until Monday when the at least main roads should be passable. Any thoughts from you all? Andy this might be a great question for you to address. (BioPat)

Forecaster Jason M said...

Tim,
I think totals will vary significantly over Southern MD. I'm thinking western Charles should see a solid 16-24", but maybe just 6-10" over the southern end of St. Mary's. In between, I would say 10-16" for most, probably on the higher end for northern areas and closer to the lower end for southern areas.

-Forecaster Jason

Lisa Simeone said...

Just wanted to say thank you to the Foot's team for their consisently comprehensive forecasts and solid advice. To Mrs. A above, first of all, I'm surprised this trip is still going through and hasn't been canceled; and second, I can't imagine why anyone involved would think of driving on Sunday. Even on Monday, even if every road in creation is cleared, there will still be ice, still be problems, still be no place to park. I guess I just don't understand people not changing their plans when that's the most prudent thing to do.

Tina said...

Lisa, you said it before I could. That trip should be cancelled or THAT's where the liability will be. If I had kids, the only place they would be until Tuesday would be the couch. Or the driveway, shoveling. :))

Stewie del Gato said...

Baltimore County Schools are closed. Not sure I'd send my kid on the ski trip. I'm not sure I'm letting my daughter spend the night at a friends house for a birthday party tomorrow night.

Mari said...

Won't the trip be cancelled since all school system weekend activities are cancelled? Or is it not a school system sponsored trip? Kudos to Southwest Airlines for refunding nonrefundable "Wanna Get Away" plane tickets for my daughter and her boyfriend who were scheduled to fly into BWI tomorrow night and drive to New Jersey for a wedding reception Saturday night. I called early this morning (around 12:30 a.m.) and was on hold for about 20 minutes but the rep located in Phoenix did not hesitate to give us a refund.

Unknown said...

Mrs. A works at MSJ any closing or delays for anything is up to the school. They usually go by Baltimore County, but there has been a few days that I can remember that Baltimore County closed and they ended up opening.

VeeDubTDI said...

Northern Virginia Community College closed through Sunday. Gotta love a good 5-day weekend.

Rufus said...

I heard that Towson University postponed move in day till Monday. I just dropped and broke a jar of Salsa Verde....was going to get a crock pot of white chili going in the morning before work :( Take care check in later.

Rufus said...

Bio Pat I'd think if where they are going and leaving from is in a state of emergency that might give you some room to reschedule. My feeling is it more of a liability to go. where are they skiing?

weed said...

SSA HQ in Woodlawn is closed tomorrow as well.

-weed

Mike Cheuvront said...

We have some feral cats that hang out at my home in Manchester. They are not ours but they have hung out here since they were kittens and we have fed them everyday.

I just built them a kitty crib made up of wood pallets, a tarp roof and a old cushion for bedding.

I will be shoveling the snow away so they can get in and out. I hope this saves their lives. I would bring them in but we already care for too many indoor animals.

If this hits as bad as they say I fear there will be both human and animal loss of life. This is as serious as I have ever seen a forecast before a storm in my 52 years here in Maryland.

ravensbbr said...

In the words of Carie Underwood...

"Got a real good feeling somethin' bad about to happen..."

Be smart, be safe everyone...

Rufus said...

awwww Mike that is very kind of you. Hopefully their instincts will do them well. There was a deer wandering around our yard this morning and we are in Catonsville. Ravensbbr I have the same feeling....

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Woo Hoo! This has been a fun and simple one to track. Having a solid idea that this would be a 20 to 30 inch storm from a week out was a nice break from the normal coastal tracking madness. The global did a great job. Got the snowblower juiced up and ready to fire. Plenty of meat in the freezer, charcoal to char it, and pulled the spare liver out of storage in preparation for excessive consumption of adult libations. A true blue ultra kahuna is knocking on the door. The drifts should be unreal! Great times ahead!

Snowplease said...

Can't wait thanks Andy.

Mike Cheuvront said...

Andy- Would you agree this may be a 1 time in a lifetime storm?

ravensbbr said...

Hey, quick heads up to those of you with heat pumps...make sure to keep them unburied from the drifts Andy's talking about. They will be no joke...might *only* be a foot in front of your house, and 5 feet around the leeward corner...

ravensbbr said...

Oh,and JB needs to bring that 27"+ bullseye map about 70 miles NE on his website. :-P

Mike Cheuvront said...

Great point Ravensbbr! Thanks!

Westsidehideaway said...

Hi All. Greetings from West Baltimore. It is nice to see some new folks here on the blog. This is my 4th or 5th big storm hanging with my Foots buds. It is always a blast. My wife thinks I'm a weather geek and she is right. Stay safe and have fun. See all of you on the blog tomorrow.

weed said...

Mike Cheuvront I'm in Hampstead.....bless u for your kindness towards those kitties.....if u can catch them at some point take them to the Baltimore Humane Society on Nicodemus Road in Reisterstown....it is a no-kill shelter....I volunteer there so i know 1st hand what goes on there...i hope those guys make it through the storm.

-weed

Westsidehideaway said...

Good idea Weed. It's a good shelter and better than my wife's idea of going to Mike house right now and getting the kitty's and bringing them to our house!!

weed said...

Westsidehideaway....LOL....I am tempted to go get them myself...he is just up the road from me but my husband and my rabbits might not like that too much either....don't we wish we could take them ALL in especially this time of year.

-weed

BioPat said...

Hello all, I have missed some of the blogging out to a meeting this evening. The ski trip is a go, I'm sure the guys will have a great time; just pray for a safe return for all.
Just spoke to my college room mate who lives in Salisbury. She called to see if we were ready for the storm. I told her we have everything but coffee and I'm hitting Baltimore Coffee in the morning for my month's supply. Need to put the final Christmas stuff in the garage and get the snow blower out and ready to roll. I think we'll have time tomorrow for final prep before the storm. I am worried about the winds with the storm as much as the snow.
No dog to walk this year as she crossed the Rainbow Bridge in October. Please everyone remember your pets, keep them inside and make sure they have a protected area to get outside as they need it.

Mike Cheuvront said...

All 3 of them are inside their condo now. I just walked out with the flashlite and they were inside.

I already have rescued 4 and have them inside. My wife and I have had the outdoor females fixed and we care for them every day.

They are only a few feet from my door and I will be sure keep clearing a way for them to move about.

Even though we can't take them in, they are in a way, ours. It is a brother and sister and their mom.

weed said...

awwwwww {hugs} to u Mike Cheuvront....(brain storming).....maybe u could house them inside temporarily in one room till the storm passes....I have see outdoor houses with heat although I'm not sure how reliable they are....my friend who lives in the city uses one for a feral cat that he takes care of....I think he got it off Amazon.

BioPat where is the ski trip??

BioPat said...

Ski trip is off to Seven Springs. It's a great resort, I used to take high school groups there many years ago. I know the facility will be great but the road trip home could be difficult at best.

Butch Dynomite said...

Baltimore county is off so I'm out tonight locally.... For the last time in a couple days. Good to go . Can't wait to watch this light up!

Morpheus said...

Went out to buy some triple A Batteries/fill a gas can and found my local gas station out of gas! So if you put this off like me and need gas for your blower or generator, you might want to go out early in cased there is a run on fuel in your are.

Just about ready - going to stack some more wood in the garage tomorrow morning then work from home while waiting for this beast to get going...oh yeah I am going to tie a yard stick to a tree out front so I do not have to go out to get a rough snow depth reading (cheating I know).

ssmd said...

So glad to see how active this place is! We are in for quite a storm , what has me worried are the winds . What does everyone think about power loss?
I am in AA county and while we haven't lost in the past it worries me. I can't recall if 2010 did we have these same levels of wind? I didn't think we actually had a blizzard then. Thanks for the advice !

Rufus said...

I have a feral cat...Rufus he is very sweet...timid at times. Isaac(the mighty hunter)and Owen OBNOXIOUS LITTLE BRAT LOL :) Figure to top the tank off tomorrow. Be safe all. Andy and Bio Pat is Terp guy still on the blog? I remember he kept going out to measure the snow in 2010 and we all worried about him. My sister gave me a snowman to measure the snow and temperature I need to get him out in the yard tomorrow morning. Night rest and see you tomorrow

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

I am very troubled by the latest model runs. Gfs at 0z is now showing up to 40 inches around baltimore metro. Very bizarre and extreme. Let's see what the Euro does, but the fact is there has never been a more extreme model run for our region. We are swimming in unchartered waters here.

Kathi said...

ssmd, I am in AA County too and am concerned about losing power as well. We didn't lose it in 2010 but that doesn't mean it won't happen this time. We have a generator but we can't run the furnace on it as the blower is hard wired into the electric panel. Going to run out tomorrow and get some kerosene for the heater just in case. I just hope there is some out there to be had at this point! Stay safe everyone and thanks Mike and wife for looking out for the feral kitties, I always worry about the animals in these kinds of storms. I have a housefull of dogs & cats too and can't even imagine any of them being outside during a storm like this.

Kathi said...

Ok Andy, I am already a little nervous about this storm!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

I really believed we were locked in a final extreme solution. Short term models and the gfs are just unprecedented. They were initialized with new data so they are either locked and loaded or suffering from convective feedback. I will have to stay up for the other runs tonight. Simply put this type of a solution has never been shown before .

Carrie said...

Thanks for the heads up, Andy. The winds expected with this storm were already worrisome but it's really looking like a monster. Stay safe, everyone!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

I think we are really looking at the perfect storm. Perfect H5 track, perfect high pressure, and historically warm surface sea temperatures. Just fuel for the fire! Tonight's late night runs will be telling. Two to three feet are a virtual lock. Are there random 4 foot totals in our future??? I really don't know. Never witnessed anything like this. It is just insane and defies experience and historical records for this region at least as far as modeling is concerned, never mind ground truth. Next step is to try to eliminate these runs as error. If they are corroborated then wow! Our ideas about the final result would have to be reevaluated.

Lance in Catonsville said...

Andy,

Truly unprecedented event. I've been listening to Capital Weather Gang discussion. They are also in awe of the models. One recent run of the GFS had a HUGE area west of DC and Balt w/ 30"+!!! I've never seen any modelling like this before. Even if it does not verify, this is looking to be a once in a lifetime event.

As always, thank you for your explanations that are detailed and accessible to understand.

Morpheus said...

Record El Nino fueling a record Blizzard in the mid-Atlantic???

Anonymous said...

Has a tornado ever touched down during a blizzard?

Morpheus said...

hummm - someone posted that they bought a roof rake, wonder where they bought that and how much snow my roof will hold (he thinks a bit nervously)?

ilv2fly said...

Has a tornado ever touched down during a blizzard?

Morpheus said...

never heard of a tornado in winter.

Andy when do the other models become available?

weed said...

ok the real question is what does the "Dennis Quiad" model tell us??

Now I'm really frightened of this snowzilla!!!

I have a cape cod but my neighbors with flat roofs use those rakes.

A Snow Tornado....hmmmmm.

ilv2fly said...

Jonas is creating tornadoes in the south right now on it's track up north. I'm curious whether the same conditions forming the current tornadoes are possible when the blizzard hops up north where snow instead of rain. We get thunder snow, can be also have snow 'nadoes?

Morpheus said...

Are you still up Andy? did the other models corroborate?