Monday, January 18, 2016

Word is getting around.

Word is getting around.

SIGNIFICANT TO HIGH IMPACT COASTAL STORM BECOMING MORE 
PROBABLE FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC 

LAST TIME OUR TEAM SAW WHAT IS ON CURRENT COMPUTER 
MODELS WAS ABOUT ... 6 YEARS AGO. YOU DO THE MATH.


6:30 PM EST 1/18 - Preliminary Scenario Map for Friday 1/22 into Saturday 1/23.  



11:00 AM EST 1/18 - There's no denying what weather watchers suspect has been going on behind the scenes of those in the forecasting community. For several days now, a number of computer models ranging from the often-hailed European, to the newly enhanced U.S. Global Forecast System to the Canadian, are showing similar projections for a potentially large scale coastal event this weekend. That much is true. 

Atmospheric analyzers know this is the 500 mb heights map and understand
how significant it is to depict what looks like a "cutoff Low" parked just off the coast.
But you know us. We can smell weather politics a mesocale map away. While our readers recognize we avoid posting precise snowfall projections for an event 5-6 days away, because there are aspects of the upcoming system we CAN, and CAN'T talk about, just yet.

THREAT ASSESSMENT: Below is a Winter Storm Threat Graphic from the Sterling VA National Weather Service for the region shown. Current assessment places a Moderate probability of a significant, disruptive storm. For a national look at winter storm probability, view the NOAA Weather Prediction Center's Day 4-7 Assessment



WHAT WE CAN TALK ABOUT: LARGE SCALE FACTORS

Without these indicators all pointing in a favorable direction (if you want snow), storm potential is lost quickly. Here's a quick rundown of a few items on our Indicator checklist:
  • EL NINO: It's very active, has recently peaked and the after effects continue to enhance every Tom, Larry and Moe of a storm that has come along this season. Remember the Carolina and Mississippi floods? Imagine if that was snow.
  • NORTHERN SNOW COVER: Rebounding lately thanks to Arctic air and frequent clippers / fronts piling up Lake Effect snow in critical spots.
  • ATMOSPHERIC INDICATORS: Without these gate keepers, you have no storm. The three big ones we follow are lining up nicely as is expected right before a Big Kahuna: The PNA is going positive (a western ridge), the North Atlantic Oscillation is staying negative but rising slowly, as is the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Those two in tandem bring us a nice deep Eastern trough. The result is the map you see below.
  • SURFACE INDICATORS: The Day 6 map from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center is probably most revealing about what fortunes are ahead in white & wintry nights.  

Latest liquid Day 5-7 liquid projections from the NOAA WPC: 
That is 1.5" to 2.0" for the major metro areas. Hint: It's not going to be falling as a liquid.

WHAT IT MEANS FOR YOU:

  • If you were not around in the Mid-Atlantic for the 2010 storms, it would be a good idea to talk with someone who was. We're sure they can provide some insight on what you'll need to do. 
  • If you were around this area in 2010, it's not unreasonable to consider what you would differently if you had to face that again. It's not panic, it's prudent preparation. Unless you want to wait in line later this week. Besides, you'll eat the food regardless of what happens.. 
  • But, if don't want to wade through social media for the next update to find out what we really think, it's time to join the Insiders. We'll see you over there.

-The FF Winter Stormcast Team

50 comments:

Jay Stubler said...

Yes it has been six years ago but what was the weather like before the storm? I.E. was it all warm no major storms to think of?

Viva Amour said...

I can take a hint ��. Thanks Foots!

Westsidehideaway said...

This is great. Some possible big powder chatter is just what we need!!!

Mike Cheuvront said...

Keep your cool and perspective. We have been here so many times before.Relax and enjoy it as it unfolds instead of getting sucked into a situation that frankly is fluid and subject to change.

I have been thru the big storms of 79,83 90's and so forth. We are in a dynamic area of the country and the situation is such also.

It looks like an awesome sauce set up.

Mike Cheuvront said...



"By the way, in 1966, 1st storm on 16th missed out to sea, 2cnd on 23rd rocked interior east, 3rd on 27th, then blizzard of 66 on 30th"

NeedaSnowday said...

:::walks in:::

ROLL CALL!!!!!

The rest of the gang should arrive soon..
so far ..
West - check
Mike - check

Tina said...

Present!!!

Butch Dynomite said...

Red five standing by

Jeff m said...

Come on Big Kahuna, I need to make some money. Plow is ready,spreader is ready,only thing missing is snow.

Jeff m said...

Come on Big Kahuna, I need to make some money. Plow is ready,spreader is ready,only thing missing is snow.

Rufus said...

Rufus is here....been in Lake effect country dropping Jacob off at school last semester...senior year.

Kathi said...

I'm here!

Jake Brodsky said...

Has anyone looked at pilot weather reports to see if any of this matches what the forecast maps say?

The reason I say this is because I've had too many instances where the weather forecasts at altitude did not match what I was actually observing as a private pilot. Yes, the fronts were there, but they were often many hours off from where projections said they would be, even just six hours before.

That's why things can line up and create snow, but not necessarily where the forecasters think it will.

kristia35 said...

I am beyond ready for a HECS. Summer people know they will get their warm weather without fail. Winter is always unpredictable for us snow lovers.

Mike Cheuvront said...

kristia35 said...
I am beyond ready for a HECS. Summer people know they will get their warm weather without fail. Winter is always unpredictable for us snow lovers.

YOU ROCK!

Tina said...

I, literally, can't keep up with these guys as they post like maniacs:

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=32617&st=3340

Westsidehideaway said...

Hi Mike!!

Good to see you again. This will be fun.

Westsidehideaway said...

Tasselmyer just said there is a 60% chance of snow Friday - Saturday. Starting to plan the snow blast menu. Hmm ribs and chili maybe and a blueberry pie?

Morpheus said...

Just got back from a South American summer vacation a few days ago, weather was great, glad I did not miss any winter fun (this was a real concern ;-). Fixed the torn CV Joint boot on the ATV in anticipation of snow before I left, changed the oil and attached the plow this weekend...I am more than ready for the big one! I just hope there is enough cold air for the low lands, there is plenty tonight.

ravensbbr said...

Manwich check from the Highlands!

kristia35 said...

Thanks Mike lol. This weekend has me hanging on every word and it's going to be a long 4 days. I'm flying high in the lofty heights of weenieism

Tina said...

Kristia, you're gonna have a lot of us flapping right along with you!

kristia35 said...

You almost can't help it at this point! If this was 10 days out I would say meh. But this is T minus 4 days and the other shoe has yet to drop. I always wait for the other shoe to drop because welcome to Maryland. But this is (to me) reminiscent of 2010 as far as agreements at this range.

BioPat said...

On Board and ready for the ride all! Can't wait for a good storm and lots of blogging with the team.

Rufus said...

I remember 2010....looking at the barometer reading and getting that BLIZARD WARNING from WBAL on my phone.

BioPat said...

I have not noticed Andy checking in yet. I cannot wait to hear his take on the storm potential. Although I do hesitate to become excited, still too far out and too many times lost a good storm "ots" or blocked to the south. El Nino year anything goes, but as we beging the switch perhaps we will be seeing significant change.

Just got home from OC where we had a beautiful snow fall on Sunday, probably ended up with about 2 inches when it ended.

Westsidehideaway said...

Stacking the wood next to the back door here in West Baltimore and giving the fireplace a good clean out. I'm getting excited.

Julee said...

HEY! Needy!!! Over HERE!!!!!

I keep checking in like a maniac because my department and two others are supplying lunch to the entire faculty on Friday.
Should I be buying mesclun, radicchio and romaine for ninety on Thursday???

Andrew?
Bueller?

Tina said...

Andy has probably had repeated episodes of extreme light-headedness, leading to passing out, as the model snow maps come out.

Julee, er, maybe you should focus on toilet paper, milk and bread for ninety...

Westsidehideaway said...

Julee. They are saying the storm hits Friday night. Based on this, your mega lunch is gonna happen. I hope they are wrong for your sake.

Butch Dynomite said...

Red wine

Mike Cheuvront said...

Andy is like--Wait for it, wait for it, waaait---BAM!

Andy is waiting for more data to come in.

In the mean time, do you want a few maps and projections. Go to www.weatherbell.com and watch the daily "Cup of Joe" update from Joe Bastardi 1/18/16.

He explains this winter compares to other El Nino's when the temps flopped to cold.

The GFS is unconscious with total snow amounts. Several storms are on the table in the near term per the models.

Butch Dynomite said...

Best thing about Bastardi is how he tells why everyone else is wrong

Julee said...

Ohhhhhhhhh! Friday night! That's convenient.

Thank you.

Mike Cheuvront said...

"Blogger Butch Dynomite said...
Best thing about Bastardi is how he tells why everyone else is wrong"

Butch- Joe's winter forecast has been out since August. I watch him every Saturday and his daily updates.

He has been spot on about this El Nino. Is he right all the time? No! Neither is Foot's, Accuweather, Tasselmeyer Ect. That's why it's forecasting and not exacting.

Joe is one of the most respected and knowledgeable in his field. He loves snow and does get caught up in the hype but Joe and his partner of weather bell has some pretty high powered clients that follow him like the natural gas crowd and commodities markets. LOL Sounds like people know who to follow if money is involved.

Gee, I wonder why???



Snowplease said...

Andy is being cautious because this is Maryland and we have a been shafted before lol but with the amount of data supporting this it's hard not too hopefully the runs tonight shed some more light on this kahuna. Honk honk

Butch Dynomite said...

Naw man I love bastardi

Snowplease said...

Bastardi is awesome love his daily updates like mike said. Tells it like it is which I like.

Westsidehideaway said...

Just watched the video being talked about. Most interesting. Thx Butch. My wife just asked what I was doing on the iPhone all evening. I told her the weather gang is back together. I got the old eye role. Yep. I'm weather geeking.

Snoogins said...

Too much can change between now and then. Hopefully it will change enough for us to get little or nothing. Snow is nice, but not 2 feet of it.

Jan Martin said...

Though I'm not one to post much, I am happy to see you all checking in. I'm one of the sideliners enjoying the banter and getting my fix of weather geekiness.

kristia35 said...

I can't get the NYC let down out of my head. They were expecting a HECS and got "be sure to drink your Ovaltine" instead.

NeedaSnowday said...

We are not GOOD TO GO until Andy makes his appearance!

:::looking at watch::::

Railslave said...

I cant wait to bring the touareg out for some fun!!! See if the germans really know how to build em for snow....

Railslave said...

I cant wait to bring the touareg out for some fun!!! See if the germans really know how to build em for snow....

Butch Dynomite said...

Ahhhhh...., it's a little orphan Annie decoder ring joke.......

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

The king of ultra Kahunas is knocking on the door. The models keep puking out snow like a pledge on hell night. Not often the major globals advertise 3 to 4 feet from a single storm. Let's give them a few more runs, see if they wash rinse and repeat again. Then we can pinpoint mesoscale banding, qpf ratios, and specific dynamics. We are in for a major storm. Only question I have is will it be the storm of a lifetime? If the models stay locked in by Wednesday then you bet. The take is prep for heavy snow from Friday until early am Sunday, and let the details evolve. No sense at swearing over the details at this range. The big picture is that a monster is knocking. As it comes closer we can count the scales, teeth, tentacles, and sniff the breath to see what it will likely spit at us!

Julee said...

Sooooo Andrew ... you're saying DON'T buy the lettuce?

BioPat said...

Outside 72 hours, anything goes. If this thing is a go by Tuesday evening this blog will really light up. As for me, I'm in the wait and watch mode for now. My forecast at school was nothing until after January 10 and after the 20th until mid- February brace yourselves. So we'll see if that holds for the next few weeks.

I agree with you all who cite Joe Bastardi, he is one of my favorites and is usually right on the mark. School tomorrow so weather maps definitely on the agenda this week. Thankfully no school Friday and I have a feeling Monday could be the first schedule interruption of the year.

BioPat said...

Well Hello Andy! Couldn't wait to read your prose so delayed bedtime this evening; glad I did and looking forward to watching over the next few days to see if this monster is going to come knocking on our doors.