Saturday, February 13, 2016

Feel Like "Groundhog Day" Yet?

Feel Like "Groundhog Day" Yet?

  • WINTER STORM WATCHES POSTED FOR UP TO 5" OF SNOW EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF MID-ATLANTIC STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT;
  • UP TO 0.25" ICE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING;
  • MULTI-HAZARD WINTER WEATHER EVENT, HEED LATEST STATEMENTS FROM THE NWS AND CONSIDER ALTERNATE PLANS FOR MONDAY.

11:30 AM EST 2/13 Our weekend weather is certainly keeping everyone on their toes as we have multiple situations in progress. Other than wind chills near zero and single digit lows tonight, the next big concern is Monday-Tuesday. It'll sure feel like Bill's winter prediction then if not already.

NEXT SNOW - This map below provides a look at the general snowfall ideas for 7 AM Monday. Computer models have been bouncing around with varying scenarios. At this point we are confident that snow is to be expected by Monday morning continuing through the day.



HOW MUCH? A few inches of snow is possible in areas where precipitation remains constant through Monday. A changeover to sleet and freezing is expected Monday night. We translate "a few" to be more than covering the ground, so up to 3-4" is the early call.


MORE UPDATES? This is a "fluid" and evolving situation. In the event the game is a'foot and models make drastic changes, consider joining the Insiders for dedicated access to our team's most current analyses. The program includes:

  • App access for Android & iPhone Safari web version to our latest reports, computer model maps and more;
  • Advance text alerts so we can advise of changing situations;
  • Alerts from the app direct to your phone notifying of latest NWS watches, warnings and to inform app has new reports;
  • Insider Update briefings by email outlining long- and short-range assessment of winter weather hazard potential;
Details at the Insiders portal here or you can text the word INSIDERS to phone number #258-27 to get signup details. Thanks for working the storms with us!

-The FF Winter Stormcast Team
Image source: Current GFS model for 7 AM Monday from tropicaltidbits.com

34 comments:

Snowplease said...

Not looking good maybe 1-3 inches then goes over to rain and washes it all away. Then a clipper Wednesday then the warmth comes back what a waste of cold air unless your out in Garrett county.

Westsidehideaway said...

Hi Snowplease and Everyone. I'll take a few inches on Monday. It will mean that me dental cleaning appt will have to be rescheduled. Oh Darn:)). I'm staying warm here in West Baltimore. I have a huge chicken to roast tonight. Already made a homemade apple, strawberry and blackberry pie and the homemade roles are in the oven now. Got movies ready to watch and the fireplace is ready to fire up. Let's see what this little storm brings us on Monday. Maybe we will get a surprise half footer. Have fun everyone.

Storm said...

I love that movie.....one of my fav comedies.....hoping for a snow day off on tuesday since I'm already off on Monday.....Westsidehideaway you are def well prepped:)

Westsidehideaway said...

Hello Powderhounds. Baby It's Cold on the Westside. The Mrs. and I decided to stay in tonight. Seeing how quiet it is here on the Foots blog, I guess everyone else is out on the town. Have fun y'all.

Snowplease said...

Well I'll hope for 2-4 on the front end even that might be a stretch hope the cold holds longer than anticipated.

BioPat said...

Happy Valentine Day my powder hound friends! The thing we love the most is once again sitting on our door step and is perplexing many with its whimsical setup.

It appears the only agreement is that yes, it is cold and that it will snow tomorrow. The initial Watch/Warning has been posted and will probably begin to encompass more areas to the east as we move through today. Both the Foot's team and JB are indicating snow will be in the 3-4" range on Monday, the question is when and IF the turnover occurs. I concur with the idea that the cold will hold longer which would provide more snow before a changeover to ice/sleet and takes rain out of the forecast. I also question a temperature change into the 40's until much later in the day on Tuesday.

This will be interesting to watch develop as the storm begins to move across the country and the cold stays in place. No doubt we will see Andy's "Manwich Analysis" later today that will help us all see through the muddle of evolving information coming in from the mixed models. Apparently the Canadian model outperforms the GFS in this extreme cold; so let the fun begin!

kristina said...

It seems the insider link above doesn't work.

Westsidehideaway said...

Bio. Well said. Yes. Let the fun begin!!

BioPat said...

I'm still hoping for only a late opening on Tuesday and nothing out of the ordinary on Wednesday. I need to have turn over sub plans for the remaining part of the week as I have a MOHS surgical procedure scheduled for Wednesday. At this point just want to get it done and behind me, love the sun but hate to pay the consequences. Word to the wise SPF is your friend, skip the long tanning and focus on protection!! Even in the winter, skin can be damaged and burn so be smart while enjoying the beauty of nature!

Rufus said...

Hello all I'm up in Edinboro visiting my son had some more snow over night maybe an inch or so heading home tomorrow. Happy Valentines Day everyone.

This storm looks interesting I did read JB saying he does not feel winter Storm Watch will be extending east and that our area most likely will be an advisory. Stay warm and be safe

BioPat said...

Safe travels and have a Happy Valentine Day visiting with your son.

Kolo Jezdec said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Westsidehideaway said...

Hang with me on this. When President Kennedy was sworn into office he was the first to do so without wearing a hat. From that point men stopped including a nice hat as part of their wardrobe. I wish we would get back to that so we as men look nicer AND we significantly lower our skin cancer risks. For me, SPF on my face just does no feel right. I do it when I have to, but when I don't, I wear a hat, which is very often.

BioPat said...

Skin protection is so essential today for folks of every age all year long. I hate hats but if I want to be outside I know now I have no choice so they will be come a standard in my wardrobe. I love sitting on the beach but never without spf 55 and now a hat and always under a sunbrella that has spf built into the material. I too have had multiple treatments and one other surgery losing part of my ear, this time it's my lower lip which is of particular concern because the recovery limits talking until stitches are removed. In my profession not talking just doesn't work.
So a word to the wise of all ages; tan is no longer a healthy look. It simply means you have damaged your largest body organ. So far as hats - wear them! They don't just make a statement they are a necessity for all.
Now lets watch the weather system begin to evolve! The sun feels great and without the wind it is a comfortable 21 out there.

Unknown said...

Seen over a dozen Robins at the home my son is trying to purchase off route 216 in Pa. not far from Codorus State Park//Lake Marburg.

The Blizzard was awesome but these nuisance storms are great if your a student or teacher as you get off but a real pain for those of us who must work outside.

I HATE HATE HATE ICE STORMS!

Snowplease said...

Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
213 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016


MDZ006-011-507-508-150315-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0008.160215T1100Z-160216T1500Z/
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-NORTHWEST HARFORD-
SOUTHEAST HARFORD-
213 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM
EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATION...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET. AROUND ONE-
TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE FROM FREEZING RAIN.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL CHANGE
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND ALL
FREEZING RAIN MONDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY
CHANGE TO RAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE TEENS TONIGHT...RISING INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS...SNOW AND ICE WILL CAUSE SLIPPERY ROADS AND TRAVEL WILL
BE DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$


Hazardous Weather Outlook

Rufus said...

Pat good luck with your surgery and no you have to be able to talk! With the sun 14 feels nice up here.

Mike I hate ice storms too....be safe

Storm said...

jesus now i'm depressed.....skin cancer.....ice storms and JFK all in one thread.....I need a stiff drink now.

-weed

Julee said...

BioP :: hope you can get to your surgery and that all will be well.
Westside :: My dermatologist suggested Aveeno moisturizer with SPF 35, it's very light and doesn't feel like you have anything on your skin. I used to have oily skin and balked at using a moisturizer, but this is really excellent. She wants me to wear it all the time, even if I don't go outside, so this is the best I've found for that purpose.
Tuesday will be interesting. Our school is having the Spelling Bee that afternoon. Maybe.

ravensbbr said...

BP, hope and pray all goes well for you!

BioPat said...

Thanks all for your good wishes. After a special blessing today following Mass I am confident all will go well.

Looking forward to seeing what the weather system brings us over the next 30 hours. It will be interesting to see how long it takes the temperature to rise and move the precipitation to all rain.

Westsidehideaway said...

Thx Julee. It's all quiet here on the Westside. I'll take a snowy day tomorrow even if it will all be washed away by Tuesday.

NeedaSnowday said...

BP.. sending up prayers for you!!

Hopefully we can avoid the nasty ice with this storm!

Unknown said...

There's a Neutrogena sunscreen (Ultra Sheer Liquid) that's supposed to be for face under makeup, but I also use it it on my arms -- it's SPF 55+, and feels like nothing.

College Park closed for Monday!

ilv2fly said...

As of 0345, 2" in Annapolis, Maryland

Unknown said...

1"+ in Frederick. And I forgot my laptop at work. Looks like I'll be making that trek in to grab it at a minimum today...

BioPat said...

Sending daughter off to work in Annapolis this morning. Told her to take her bag so she can stay with friends in Crownsville rather than risk a bad trip home this evening.

Anonymous said...

Wow, I just stumbled onto this sight. This is fantastic. Great predictions. Health tips. I get to learn about everyone's social plans. Food ideas. Bring on the snow!

Unknown said...

When did this storm start humming?

Tina said...

Wow, a winter wonderland in Sussex County, DE! Got about 3" of fluff with no sign of it (outside or on radar) slowing down. On a side note: a pox on the guy who thought bringing starlings over from the U.K. was a fabulous idea. :(((

Unknown said...

Good Morning! So, I am in Rehoboth visiting family and need to get back to Baltimore. We though if we left by 10am this morning, we'd be okay... we were quite surprised when we awoke to 2 inches of snow! Any insight on when might be a better time to leave over another? Would rather drive in snow than sleet/ice, so should we just leave now with the snow? How does Baltimore area look?

Rufus said...

Getting ready to leave Edinboro it's snowing a little...gonna be sandwiched in between storms.

Be safe all

Muselock Holmes said...

Best of luck to you with your surgery Bio! Upping the numbers here in Severna Park. 5" before it transitions over to sleet and ice. Not a heavy snow but surely steady. Main roads and highways are clear.

Unknown said...

We are icing up badly down here in central Va. On top of lots of snow and sleet. Slick as can be, pls b careful folks!