Saturday, February 6, 2016

Lady Gaga Storm On Stage

Lady Gaga Storm Coming On Stage


8:30 AM EST 2/7 - SNOWFALL AND STORM TRACK UPDATE. Overnight computer models trended colder and snowier for Tuesday. We have high confidence in an all snow event starting by 6 PM Monday for the Mid-Atlantic, with at least 4" probable for the metro areas of I-95 from Washington to New York. 

WHAT DRIVES THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE? The track the Low shown south of DC, moving slowly across the southern Bay indicates there is ample distance and time for that system to tap Atlantic moisture and wrap it back into the inland cold air. 

NWS STATEMENTS: Most area NWS offices have been laying the groundwork in their Hazardous Weather Outlooks for some time nowWe surmise Winter Storm Watches could be posted for some areas later today if these indications continue in the next set of model runs. Remain alert for the latest official statements from your local NWS office. 

TIMING: Although Monday looks precip-free for most areas  east of I-81, we advise you have alternate plans in place for Tuesday as many areas are likely to be impacted by snowfall throughout the day.  Our earlier statements are posted below. 





Unusual and highly complex arrangement for early next week points to irregular and varying precipitation types for the eastern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
  • Scenarios are all over the stage, ranging from a coastal surprise for New England to a 36-hour light snow event for the I-95 corridor starting Monday morning;
  • Hard-to-explain forecasts may confound the effort of emergency managers, schools districts and parents alike to adequately plan. We advise being ready to adjust to changing conditions and have alternate arrangements in place for surprises.



11:00 AM EST 2/6 - TEAM STATEMENT ON CURRENT & LONG RANGE PATTERN by Forecaster Jason Mitchell and the Winter Stormcast Team


PRESENT CONCERNS: We are aware many readers wish to have specifics on the upcoming winter weather event to affect the Mid-Atlantic Monday-Wednesday. 
  • The above referenced map depicts the start of a complex and multi-day precipitation event starting Monday midday and lasting into Wednesday. 
  • It is an evolving situation and we do not have a solid lock on exactly what will happen, but are evaluating scenarios we feel are appropriate for public review. 
  • We can say it is likely many areas will see some accumulating snow late Monday into Tuesday, although at this point it's not looking like it will be a blockbuster event.
LONG RANGE CONCERNS: Investigation of the current and projected pattern over the next 2-3 weeks suggests some historical comparison between present day and the weather events of February 2010. 
  • Many of the blockbuster Northeast/Mid Atlantic snowstorms that have occurred in February over the past 60 years have coincided with moderate or strong El Nino episodes. 
  • The strong El Nino episode ongoing in the Pacific Ocean this winter has certainly made its mark on the region since late fall. 
  • Rainstorms since the Fall have been more frequent than any other year in this timeframe since 2010. 
  • The amount of moisture that was pulled into the nor'easter which became the Blizzard of 2016 is directly related to the effects of the current strong El Nino.
The big question is what can this pattern produce over the next couple of weeks, It is the most interesting and potentially stormy setup we have had in some time, and will bear close monitoring.


38 comments:

Westsidehideaway said...

Lady Gaga Storm, meaning Hard to Explain. I love it.

Butch Dynomite said...

"Irregular precipitation types " like snowflakes with seven points?

Unknown said...

Love the name and reasons for the storm!! Thanks for your willingness to share your knowledge and passion for weather!!!!

Duane said...

What happened to presenting 3 major scenarios with probability percentages?

Patricia said...

Oh! Now I understand the Gaga reference. I thought is just strange.

Westsidehideaway said...

Hi Everyone. Greetings from West Baltimore. Given that no forcsaster, including the awesome Foots team seems to know just what the heck is going on with this event, seems like a good time to monitor them all closely and frequently. We will all learn a lot in doing so. Have fun everyone.

Carrie said...

Good advice, Westside. It'll be interesting to see what happens!

BioPat said...

The adventure begins. I am now prepared for anything; we found my husband's missing boots today. The gators are still missing but I am sure they too will emerge.

Westsidehideaway said...

Thanks Carrie.

Hey Bio Pat. Where is everyone?

Westsidehideaway said...

Are we the only ones interested in this potential storm?

Butch Dynomite said...

I don't want to get my hopes up . I feel like in th past I've seen the energy just hop over me with this set up.

Westsidehideaway said...

Hey Butch. I understand. But it's pretty fluid right now. Could bring some powder. Maybe a snow day!!

BioPat said...

Well, the storm still lacks enough organization and definition for any really excitement. I think Andy's original call of 6" - 12" may be optimistic at this point but there is a lot of moisture in this system. It appears we may be on the low side of the moisture and also temperatures will be critical. There's still a lot of time before we see any impact from the two part system.

Westsidehideaway said...

Greetings from the Westside everyone. I guess this has not captured the attention of the usual suspects here. I'm still having a lot of fun looking at all of the forecasts. The storm seems to confounding and difficul to read. I love these because I learn a lot and like seeing what all the weather folks predict.

I went to the Super Bowl two years ago at the Meadowlands with my best bud who is a life long Broncos fan. We left at the beginning of the 4th quarter to beat the rush out and try to forget the thrashing the Broncs were getting. Got back to Bmore at 4am. I hope the Broncos can pull this one out. Have fun everyone!!

BioPat said...

Well Westside, I believe that everyone is hoping Peyton wins one more ring and then will retire going out on top. Yet, I don't think there is any question that Caroline is favored in almost every pole. I just would like to see a good game that holds everyone captive.

I continue to watch the media's interpretation of this week's storm and the jury is still out. The updated GFS has been the most accurate with the winter storms and it is looking at about 6" for west side of I95 the others calling for about 1/2 that amount. The GFS is most consistent with what Andy indicated early on and based on this year's accuracy I am sticking with that forecast. As we move into tomorrow and see how the first storm trends there is no doubt it will help determine what the second storm will do.

Westsidehideaway said...

Hey Bio. Yep. This is the general trend. I'll be happy with a six inch storm.

Now making an apple pie!!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

BP,
I still like my original thoughts concerning the potential of this system for our area. I think this is a mini powder keg set-up. I expect Winter Storm Watches shortly. I like the way the gfs has handled the northern stream low and think that's how things will shake out. Again another dynamic system on hand that will produce convective banding. I think the max potential here for Baltimore is 6 to 10 inches with the possibility of 8 to 14 in the hill country of northern Md and southern PA. I am not making any calls with this system yet, but if things continue to play out as they have we are in for a nice shellacking.

Julee said...

Andy ... Fresh from looking at NWS site where they are saying 1-2 inches on Tuesday, and here you are saying we could be hit by a B.U.S. (Blow Up Storm)! I LIKE the way you think!! I hope you're right and make those NWS people look like they've been asleep at the wheel ... of a snow plow.

Westsidehideaway said...

Beautiful Andy, Beautiful!!

Rufus said...

Forecasts are all over the place just saw something from wjz said an inch....flurries. I believe it was after the 93 maybe 96 storm I try to associate with my kids ages and it gets muddled....anyhoo catonsville had 8 inches of flurries and nobody changed their forecast. Should be an interesting 24 hours leading up to the precip.

BP I'm pulling for the old guy but Carolina is on fire also hoping for a good game. Just put the wings in to slo bake. Andy I guess you have Manwich on tap for the game? Everyone enjoy and will check in later...note wildlife at least here in the junction seems very quiet at the moment, maybe they are watching the Kitten Bowl.

BioPat said...

Thanks Andy for your post. Julee I have found the NWS to be one of the least reliable sources in any storm regardless of the season. I still recall teaching a weekend course at Arundel Mills where NWS was calling for an inch or so of snow and the Foot's team was saying 6 - 8". I went to the coffee shop at 8 am and talked to two police officers about their readiness who stated that NWS was not calling for any major event. At noon, we had to stop class because the college closed due to dangerous driving conditions and I spent the next 3 hours trying to get home on 95 alongside salt truck with plows up caught in the storm with the rest of us. The final total was 6.5" of snow along the I95 corridor; I learned then never trust NWS.

On this one, I'm going with Andy's thoughts which seem to coincide with the GFS model. Now, one more lecture to record before relaxing this afternoon. BTW, I have a test scheduled for Tuesday which I have already told the guys will probably be delayed due to the weather. (BioPat) on the other pc.

Snowplease said...

Looks like a I-83/ north of 70 special to me and of course the mountain men get the most action too. I think the low landers will have marginal temps and mixing problems but anything is possible in a Nino season hoping for a pleasant surprise and a good thumping.

Storm said...

Hello all....I been reading all your lovely posts.....I can't make heads or tails out of the precip forecasts....all I know is that it's going to snow.....where are the accumulations....even Justin's site was hard to comprehend.....he usually gives precip forecasts 72 hours out....I'm in Hampstead and still don't know if we are getting 6 or 12 inches...not that it really matters I guess:)

Let it snow!!!!!

-weed

Julee said...

Bio: I zip around to a lot of weather sites looking for agreement just before a storm and rarely find it -- except for our last blizzard and even THEN the only real agreement was the word "blizzard." Seems like NWS is the LAST to come into line with Mr. Foot and Andy. THEY should be monitoring THIS site!
I am ALWAYS happy to go with Andy's thoughts, up to and including the state of Gary Busey's liver.

Unknown said...

You can't find anyone giving amounts because there is no agreement among the computer models which leads them to be uncertain.

I remember a storm that sat and sat and sat off the coast until energy from the west came in and gave it a kick and we got about a foot. That was when I lived in Westside's area.

It was extremely rare the way the computers agreed on the blizzard, especially so far in advance.

GO PANTHERS GO CAM NEWTON AND GO 6-12"

Snowplease said...

Exactly mike models have no agreement so we sit and wait. Go Broncos Even though Carolina will probably win I like seeing players go out and top and Peyton is probably the greatest qb ever if he wins.
Hopefully the NWS will post something soon so people know in advance.

Tina said...

Two words: Puppy. Bowl.

Butch Dynomite said...

With snow please on the bowl. I also think that even if the higher totals verify it will be highly localized . so we will see .....hopefully at least one of us gets it.

Storm said...

ok Justin Berk just posted his forecast for the storm(s)

http://news.justinweather.com/2016/02/07/first-call-for-snowfall-feb-8-to-10/

these are his CONFIDENT low numbers:)

don't care who wins SB50 I just want a good/clean game with no injuries or BS....I like/respect both teams and both QB's....I don't watch the half-time shenanigans as I use this time to restock everything and to use the bathroom!!

-weed

Snowplease said...

Nam crushes NE Md with a foot in harford and Cecil and a good amount in Baltimore too please be true..... Pretty please lol one can hope still has time to change looks like whoever gets in that small band gets crushed but who gets it is the question.

Morpheus said...

Hummm - *^%*!@# I95 snow cut off line. Us lowlanders (south Bowie) are just outside of the fun yet again. The one thing I did not consider when moving here (otherwise it is great)! Ahh oh well, hope you all have fun.

Snowplease said...

Looks like everyone could get in on the fun almost a inch of liquid in harford Baltimore and Carroll counties looking good. I wonder when they'll post any advisories/ warnings we are getting close to crunch time.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

All models have been trending colder and snowier. I stand by my original idea. Winter storm warnings should be incoming for Baltimore/Metro area. Enjoy the snow! Someone north of Baltimore will finish with a foot.

NeedaSnowday said...

1. Home from Orlando!

2. So glad Peyton Manning can now go out with another SB! Defense wins championships... Watching Miller and Ware in Wade Phillips' fast and aggressive D was just awesome. Cam had no idea what hit him!

3. WSW have been issued! I like it!

4. Looks like we get a nice measurareable snow.... With bitter bitter cold to follow!!

BioPat said...

Hooray for Peyton and Hooray for snow, and thankful for coaches like Kubiak. Looking forward to seeing the white stuff this time tomorrow morning. I do believe west and north of the city will see a good 6" out of this storm. More confidence in Andy's thoughts that there will be more snow and colder then current forecast. I guess I better make plans to move that test to Thursday.

Muselock Holmes said...

-Predictions look pretty good for you guys North of Baltimore! We seem to be on the southerly edge of getting powdered up here in Severna Park. MD. Seriously contemplating racking the board up and hitting Liberty early AM.

-Stoked for Peyton and well deserved! I am sure a very bitter Mr. Newton feels mostly cloudy this morning after the Denver defense snowplowed his street a few dozen times last evening.

Oh.....and Lady Gaga crushed the National Anthem last night. ;)

NeedaSnowday said...

And big shout out to Ravens former TE and future TV weatherman .....Owen Daniels! Congrats on the victory.... Now, It's "our" turn!

Good call on moving the test BP! ! Am keeping an eye on Friday too, as my students have to be at a performance.... Those with 2nd semester classes have gotten off to a rocky start!

Mrs. A said...

You are so right Needa particularly in Howard County. It is hard to keep everyone focused with the interruptions but we will get through as we always do.