Thursday, February 11, 2016

Snow Squall Friday

TONIGHT INTO SAT: 35 MPH+ and WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO 
SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE THROUGH 11 PM 
PROBABILITY RISING FOR SNOW/ICE/RAIN MON PM - TUE



Super Cold Sat & Sun...
PROJECTED LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY MORNING

...with Snow chances rising for Tue 
NOAA LONG RANGE EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY 
OF AT LEAST 0.25"  LIQUID AS SNOW OR ICE BY TUE AM 2/16

  • Probability is rising for a new round of wintry weather in the Mid-Atlantic is for Monday night into Tuesday. 
  • While it is too early for specifics on snow fall totals, we are confident some accumulating snow is to be expected throughout the region by Tuesday morning of next week.
  • Some computer models are depicting a Lakes-centered track of the eventual Low, which would bring Monday PM snow changing to Tue AM rain. Others have a more traditional coastal Low tapping cold air to the north and delivering several inches for the I-95 metro areas and higher amounts inland.
  • If snow is projected to occur in our region prior to 11:59 PM Monday 2/15, then you'll know our next move is to title the succeeding post "Presidential Powder?"



25 comments:

Morpheus said...

Bowie - No Snow on the ground, woods out back had lots of turkeys this morning though.

BioPat said...

About 1 inch in Catonsville temperature is a very cold 33 so stickage on the cold surfaces is occurring.

ravensbbr said...

App. 3.5" here in the Highlands. Rate varies, currently huge flakes. Fair amount of compaction keeping totals down I think...heavy wet cruddy snow, but we'll take it.

Not quite sure I remember a winter set up with three L's in motion like this any time recently...

Storm said...

we got about 5-6 here in Hampstead.....stayed home.....beautiful!!!

-weed

Snowplease said...

1-1.5" in harford just one degree makes the difference up the road they have 4-5 inches.

Anonymous said...

Just rain in Arnold near Annapolis!

Westsidehideaway said...

About 2" in West Baltimore. Pretty snow with no road problems.

Muselock Holmes said...

Woke up this morning to rain here in Severna Park. Loaded up the board and shot up to Liberty for a nice 5 hour session on the slopes. Killer conditions and about 4" of fresh snow! Snow transitioned back into rain on the way home. Buzzkill....

Morpheus said...

Bright sun, wet roads and still above freezing down here...what different worlds we live in.

Storm said...

@Muselock what a great idea!!

still coming down in hampstead.....didn't even use the snow blower as it's a wet heavy snow and I needed the exercise anyway....I'm weird...I only use the blower when it's a dry snow.

temps dropping....I expect icy conditions later....be safe everyone!!!

-weed

Unknown said...

Well, we are 1 for 2 so far. This was a dud to the south. Snow was not laying until I got past the train station on 795.

Home now with 5-6 inches in Manchester. It's nice and all but I'm sorry you all down south got shafted.

This storm was a disorganized mess. Big flakes falling now, it's the last gasps and final breaths of this one.

Hoping for a few more nicer storms before the abrupt end to winter I see in mid March.

Morpheus said...

Glad someone got snow Mike. Anyone ready to speculate on a presidents day storm? At least one model is showing something of significance so being an optimist I will buy some manwhich before the weekend.

BioPat said...

Just saw a post that should provide some sense of credence for the decisions reached by school systems when they choose to close on days like today. In Cumberland County, PA a school bus was involved in a fatal accident with a vehicle while transporting students from school. This tragic accident may have been prevented if the extra problems created when buses are on the roads had been eliminated by closing schools. Sometimes I think there are too may critics just anxious to keep the kids in school and forget the safety issues in putting the buses and student drivers on the road during adverse conditions. Some day the powers that be will provide a better way for students to work from home on such days so that safety will not be an issue.

Butch Dynomite said...

The pres day storm on GFS looks similar to others that slipped east earlier this week but any possibility to look foreword to is good in my book.

Morpheus said...

Butch - I like how the Euro is interpreting interactions between the two systems...but this far out as you said it is just a possible target to watch and look forward to it's modeling.

Morpheus said...

Andy - any nibble from mountainy man community?

17YearLocust said...

From the top of the Catoctin mountains above Cunningham Falls, near the Frederick County (Thurmont)/Washington County (Smithsburg)line, I measure 6.25 inches and we have light snow falling at 9:20 PM.

Westsidehideaway said...

Downtown Bmore is cold with the wind blowing pretty hard this afternoon. Take it easy everybody.

Eric said...

We are working on trying to provide those meaningful home based learning activities for students and groups of students and their teachers - I think we are only a few years away from such systems (access will always be a key issue, however)

Unknown said...

Close call on the next storm. Days out but somebody in the East is going to get a good snow. Is it the Mountains? The highlanders of the Western and Northern suburbs? Or Central Maryland?

This may be one of our final chances as time dwindles on winter.

BioPat said...

Interesting about the Tuesday storm possibilities. Currently appears it may set up too far west for us, but still way too distant to even begin to predict. Just an interesting aside; early this school year I told my students we would receive our average snowfall and maybe even a bit more but from only one or 2 storm(s) this winter. I wonder if that will play out when this is all said and done? Again we will have to wait and see.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Been a crazy couple of days here in the hinterlands. After some unexpected running and unexpected time off from a busy work day to resolve an unanticipated mini crisis during a snow event of all things, we are back to smooth sailing. Temperatures with the last system made all the difference. Areas that stayed colder cashed in. Reports of a general 7-9 inch snow for southern York and Lancaster counties. Many reports of 6-8 near the Mason Dixon line in Maryland. Other areas closer to the cities had a trace to 3 inches. Here we had 7 inches by noon and it snowed light to moderate but it melted down to 6 inches despite snowing all day by 5:00pm. Overnight I picked up a new 1.75 inches for a total of 8.75. What would have been if it were a little cold both here and near the cities! Next storm knocks on the door for Monday and it is a modeling nightmare. Too many unresolved issues this far out, but that system looks more messy. Hopefully things become a little more clear by Saturday night so we can have a general idea of what to expect.

Morpheus said...

Not excited about potential snow because even if it happens, it warms right up. unlike 09/10 where we had snow then a good stretch of cold with that great snow season. I love not only the storm but playing and seeing a soft white blanket in the winter. I am native of the north and I realize MD usually does not get snow on snow...

Rufus said...

we will see.... upper 40's predicted for Tuesday. I will bein Edinboro PA this weekend. Stay warm and safe all!

MF said...

I'm guessing Monday into Tuesday is going to be nothing.