Wednesday, February 3, 2016

You Knew It Wouldn't Be Long...

You Knew It Wouldn't Be Long...

BUT FIRST, HOW ABOUT SOME SURPRISE SNOW FOR FRIDAY?




3:35 PM 2/4 - SURPRISE SNOW MESSAGE. Short range models have been working this line of precip more west in the overnight hours. 
  • With cold northwest surface flow and upper level temperatures below 32 F tonight, it is highly probable that any precip falling along the I-95 corridor from Washington to Philadelphia and New York will be observed as snow. 
  • Untreated surfaces will quickly become slippery, and in the wake of the recent storm, once cannot just snap a finger and expect an army of fully-functioning plows and salt trucks to appear.
  • We urge caution to all commuters who have to get to work regardless of road conditions. Friday morning may be an unexpectedly challenging time for many, even if it is just an inch or two.
NEXT WEEK'S STORM: YOU HAVE GOT TO BE KIDDING ME.
  • Long range models develop a classic western ridge/eastern trough by Tue;
  • Reinforcing shots of cold air into the East Sun-Tue will bring temps below normal;
  • The big blue blob? If you want more snow, blue on this map is your friend. Additional details below on our preliminary thoughts.


4:30 PM EST 2/3 - PRELIM MODEL MESSAGE: The U.S. Global Forecast System's Ensemble Model Means for next Tuesday night depicts the following general idea:
  • A classic and deep upper level trough parked over the eastern U.S. (the bowed lines on right side)
  • A large and powerful "cut-off" Low grinding it's way toward the coast (dark blue area)
  • Let's suppose there might be a robust little surface Low.. say along the coast around the same time. You don't suppose that could result in... (:::shh! might upset the media:::) snow. 
  • Certainly not, how could it snow again?  Especially when the rain/snow line is being shown in..  er... in Charleston, South Carolina. Poppycock, hogwash, astounding... 


But possible. Above is the latest run of the European operational for Tuesday morning. If you know what to look for on this, then you'll understand why it has forecasters nervous:

  • A retrograding Low toward the coast? 
  • A large deep trough, STILL being modeled after 5 days, with 5 days to go...
  • Extremely cold upper level air that would be -30 or -40 F at 17,000 feet, and 0 F at 10,000 feet. Any precip encountering this cold air will most certainly fall as snow.
If you need to know details about this more quickly and directly from us via advance text and specialized email, the most efficient way is to consider joining the Insiders. A fast way to do that from your phone is to text INSIDERS to 25827 and receive an auto-reply with a link to our registration page, and a sample graphic issued to Insiders the other day.
(Heard there was an App? Shhhh.. don't tell the iPhone Insiders, but there is an  app ready for Android users, and an iPhone solution for those folks coming this evening. Details about app access are issued upon confirmation of your enrollment in the system.)
Next Update? Our Winter Stormcast Team is preparing an initial round of scenarios to be presented later on Thursday that will outline general possibilities for this next event. 

If your organization needs precise, real-time 24/7 winter intelligence from an experienced team trusted by large educational, contractor and corporate institutions, consider our Winter Services. Our clients would be happy to relate examples of how we assisted them in the Blizzard and for many other storms in recent years. 


29 comments:

Pat Abrahms said...

Now that's just super news for those of us who consider ourselves "Powderhounds". Need to watch this system and am also hearing a rumbling about a bit of the white stuff on Friday. I guess we'll have to watch to determine if that is trending west or will be OTS.

Rufus said...

Pat Friday the 5th or Friday the 12th? Purse/Pandora Bingo Saturday in Ferndale.

Westsidehideaway said...

Somethin To Talk About Here!!

BioPat said...

Rufus, I saw something indicating possibility for a coastal storm on the 5th. If it continues to move west we will see some snow, but not like what may occur next week.

Butch Dynomite said...

I just need something to look foreword to! Even just a possibility.We have a snow day pool going at work and I bet on the high end.

ilv2fly said...

If anyone pays attention to this sort of thing, any chance this storm might impact the New Hampshire primary, Tuesday the 9th of February?

Rufus said...

Thanks Pat. Butch thanks for saying that I have to put the football pool together for superbowl...our poolster took a serious fall and is not able to do so this year :( Haven't the foggiest what I'm doing but I'll google it!

Drive safe in the fog

Morpheus said...

While we wait for the possible snow on Tuesday, NOAA in Silver Spring is having there open house on Saturday, My 6 year old and I will be there. Figured some of your students might be interested as well...

Open House

You’ll be amazed by what you learn!

NOAA Silver Spring Campus

Saturday, February 6, 2016

9:00 a.m. – 4:00 p.m. (Registration opens at 8:30 a.m.)

Register in the lobby of SSMC3, 1315 East-West Highway

Blockedwww.noaa.gov/openhouse

NOTE: A government-issued photo ID is required for adults. Check www.noaa.gov/openhouse for a list of acceptable forms of ID.



Explore your world and learn how NOAA takes the pulse of the planet every day and then uses that information to predict the weather, manage fish, and conduct many other critical activities. Join us at the NOAA’s Silver Spring, Maryland, campus for a series of FREE activities, including engaging talks by NOAA experts, interactive exhibits, and hands-on activities for ages 5 and up. Special tours for ages 7 and up.



The NOAA Open House is free and open to the public. For more information, visit www.noaa.gov/openhouse .



What to See and Do
To get started, pick up your “Passport to Science” and start your NOAA Open House journey at 1315 East-West Highway, Silver Spring, Maryland. The building has a sculpture of a giant hand in front of it. The registration desk will be open Saturday, February 6, from 8:30 a.m.-3:30 p.m. NOAA Open House events take place from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m.



Visit the NOAA Science Center for hands-on activities for ages 5 and up. Build a buoy; learn about the ocean’s chemistry; get “blown away” in a hurricane-simulator booth; become a “backyard meteorologist”; meet Sanctuary Sam and Owlie Skywarn; and much more! See www.noaa.gov/openhouse for the full list of activities.


Right across the hall in the NOAA Auditorium, enjoy special talks and video presentations by NOAA experts. Visit Blockedwww.noaa.gov/openhouse for topics and start times. Sign language interpreter available.



See Earth in a way you have never seen it before! New on the NOAA Silver Spring Campus, Science On a Sphere® (SOS) is a room-sized, global display system that uses computers and video projectors to display planetary data onto a six-foot diameter sphere. Imagine a giant animated globe with a fascinating visual display of all types of data that helps illustrate Earth science. Ages 7 and up. Sign up at the registration desk for this captivating presentation. See Blockedwww.noaa.gov/openhouse for more.





Attend a simulated weather briefing in NOAA’s National Weather Service Operations Center. Sign up at the registration desk for this special opportunity to learn first-hand what the National Weather Service does during high-impact events. Ages 7 and up. See www.noaa.gov/openhouse for more.

Take NOAA’s Art Walk. See original works by Wyland, nationally syndicated cartoonists Jim Toomey (Sherman’s Lagoon) and Jack Elrod (Mark Trail), and other artists who make science and nature come alive through their creative talents. More details available at Blockedwww.noaa.gov/openhouse .


Enjoy NOAA’s permanent exhibit, Gateway to NOAA. Visit us on Facebook at Blockedwww.facebook.com/gatewaytonoaa .


For the information on directions, parking, security and inclement weather policy, please visit Blockedwww.noaa.gov/openhouse .


NOAA Heritage Week Contact Information

For the latest information about the NOAA Open House and other NOAA Heritage Week events, check this website Blockedwww.noaa.gov/openhouse for updates. Questions about the NOAA Open House may be emailed to GatewaytoNOAA@noaa.gov or call 240-533-0710.

Westsidehideaway said...

That is an aweful big and aweful blue blob there.

Pat Abrahms said...

It will be interesting to see what happens to that big blue mass out there. Friday looking more like an incidental type of snow' if we get it there will be AN interruption of any activity.

BioPat said...

Thanks Morph for the information, I will share that with my students.

On another note, looking at some maps that are staring to circulate looks like next weeks storm could be significant for a lot of areas. Right now it appears most of central MD is out of the main mix as we are a little south of the central point. However this definitely bears watching as we move into the weekend. Let's just say I am thankful my snowblower is repaired.

Anonymous said...

OK, I love snow and would love it to happen during the week instead of the weekend...for several different reasons. When will we get a better idea of whether this is happening or not and how much? Right now our weather people are saying we could have showers on Monday and am snow showers on Tuesday. The temps are in the mid 40's and upper 30's...not allowing me any hope looking at that.

BioPat said...

Dear Sparkle your time would be better spent here than listening to the television folks.It's still too far out to determine what this storm will do but it will be interesting to watch it develop.

Rebecca said...

Excited about Friday's possible snow, but not the timing. Am really looking forward to a day home without the kids.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Been working harder than Gary Busy's liver at an all you can drink cruise. Sensible weather shows a 2 to 3 inch snow for Baltimore metro in time for the am rush. Temps will hover just above freezing but the snow will fall at a moderate rate so roads will be a problem . Next storm follows Monday. The potential is there for a widespread 6 to 12 inches. Plenty of time still to see how it evolves. The potential is there for a foot of snow so it has me interested! I will check back in on Sunday but if things evolve as I expect winter storm watches could fly by Sunday pm! Fun times

Julee said...

Andrew, I wish that you and Mr. Foot had a TV weather show.
Guaranteed EMMY!!!!

Muselock Holmes said...

**FIRST TIME POSTER ALERT** I've never posted on these threads but have thoroughly enjoyed reading the comments and following the excellent approach to the weather forecast you folks put together. I tell everyone to come here for the real deal! I have to share this story with you because I am batting 1000 when it comes to heavy snowfall predictions. It's not that I am a meteorologist but something seemed funny to me starting in 2003. I have been living in Severna Park, MD since 1999 and 2003 struck me funny in March witnessing the massive acorn drop in my backyard. The weird thing about it was that most of them were tops. I walked inside my house and told my wife there was a damn good possibility we were going to get pounded this winter with snow. Needless to say, my predictions were correct that winter. There were NO heavy acorn drops from 2004-2009. 2010 the same acorn drop occurred. This time I told everyone to prepare because my theory was those fat little squirrel bastards know better than we do. Kaboom once again and thought this isn't a bad theory. From 2011-2014 not many acorns fell and then this year hit. It was the biggest acorn drop I have ever seen in my backyard. It was so intense that after the lawn service raked all my leaves up for the year that I had to spend an entire day raking up acorns and putting them in contractor bags. Again most of them were tops! I grabbed a scale and weighed one of the bags at 250lbs. There were four bag fulls so I raked up a 1/2 ton of acorns and tops!! Call me Dr. Doolittle, call me freakin lucky, call me Nostradamus but animals know what's going to happen before us funny little humans. Thanks for letting me rant about my record and keep up the great work!

Muselock Holmes said...

Okay I didn't mean to say the month of March in 2003 (That wouldn't male no damn sense) so should have proof read before sending! Cheers!

BioPat said...

Muselock, thanks for sharing your thoughts. I started the school year by telling the seniors it would be a good year to be a senior with all the weather interruptions. Time will tell, but I'm still betting I'm on the mark here.

Morpheus said...

Sure thing BioPat - the open house should be interesting.

Andy - I hope with all the cold aloft we get snow out of next weeks event in the lowlands as apposed to rain/sleet. Would love a nice fluffy 6-12 inches!!!

Muselock - I vote that you give us your nutty top report at the beginning of each season! you must have some good size oaks on your property!

NeedaSnowday said...

::::groggy::: After looking at the Orlando forecast for today, yes, down here on the annual field trip....checking on the deal for home, since when I left there wasn't much of a positive outlook for the timeframe for next weeks event.... BOOM! ::::wide awake:::: whoa Nelly, things shifted west and things are looking up!

Muselock, welcome and yep, your so right about the animals instincts! Fun story!! ! Our birds were voracious at the feeders, Juleeeeee what about yours? Looks pretty active until March!
BP, seniors are grinning ear to ear...the others, eh, not so much!

Well, time to get ready for a sunny, but not as warm day here... After 80's, a low 60 degree day just seems mean spirited! Ha!

BBR... Thoughts on outcome for Sunday?? Gonna be one heck of a game I think! I despise horseface Elway, but would love to see Pey-Pey get another ring...and I have been pulling for Carolina since we crapped out...

Muselock Holmes said...

Thank you for the responses all and I never thought about the birds! No feeders here but I am sure there is a trend. I will definitely make it a habit to post a "Deez Backyard Nutz Tops" report every fall Morpheus.

As for the Super Bowl, I am with ya NeedaSnowaday. Would like to see PM retire with a win but the defense will be the key. Superman and the Panthers look unstoppable and too much like the 2013 Seahawks. We will see...:)

BioPat said...

I think most are in agreement; love to see PM get one more ring but the Panthers are just a force this year.

Today's flurry event was what I had initially anticipated for Baltimore although it looks like the eastern shore has its hands full with minimal equipment to handle such events. However, it does give us more info to compare in looking at next weeks storm beginning to organize. I like Andy's call and perhaps once his eyes begin to really focus again post cruise he will provide some more detail.

Butch Dynomite said...

Well the woolly Bears had an unimpressive stripe this year. then again I didn't excacy establish any sort of control sample.

Unknown said...

As a Chiefs fan, anyone but Manning. I was actually rooting for the Patriots a few weeks ago. I don't even think I'll watch the game. I have to work the next day (unless there's crazy snow I guess), bu man, I can't stand Peyton. He's crushed the dreams of Chiefs fans for many years.

genser95 said...

As of now, it sure looks like the "second storm" is going to be stronger, maybe hitting New England instead of heading out to sea, so there won't be much moisture left for what might go on Tuesday. But we'll see...

ravensbbr said...

12z GFS rains out next Tuesday, but we'll see...

Julee said...

Needy -- those birds were Ka-razy today. Every time I looked outside, the grass was blanketed with juncos!! Some sparrows and the occasional mourning dove rounded out the feathered freeloaders feasting all over the fescue. I like to provide dried fruit and pre-shelled seeds, so that's probably why my cozy library quad serves great numbers of avian appetites. Mostly get big crowds two or three days ahead of a storm.
Let's see if they are the genius predictors I believe them to be.

Tina said...

"Some sparrows and the occasional mourning dove rounded out the feathered freeloaders feasting all over the fescue."

::Julee, drops mic, leaves the room::