Real Spring ...right to Summer or not?

6:00 AM EDT 3/23 - Turning the corner into the next weather pattern, our Long Range Team is evaluating indicators for how this first period of Spring is going to unfold. The investigation centers on these three scenarios for the 30 day period ahead to late April for the Mid-Atlantic. Simply put, does the region face either:

A) A typical Spring pattern of alternating periods warm/cold, dry and rainy? 

B) Prolonged periods of below normal temperatures from a resurgent northern Jet Stream? 

C) Rapid arrival of summer-like conditions with widespread above normal temperatures?    

To best assess these questions, supporting evidence is needed from current status of large scale indicators. This provides a"pulse of the pattern" in order to examine how these indicators may influence local and regional weather in the weeks ahead. The three indicators chosen are 1) Status of EL Nino's decline from the peak; 2) U.S. & Canadian snow cover; 3) Atlantic & Gulf sea surface temperatures. 

Our findings are being posted in each section as the analysis becomes available for review. 

FIRST, THE BIG PICTURE : STATUS OF EL NINO

SECOND: SNOW COVER & ARCTIC TEMPS

A brief comparison of snow cover for this time period between the current El Nino event and the last one of record in 2009-10. Although this particular date in 2016 versus 2010 is just one day in a year-long data set, the intent is to demonstrate the significant differences in snow cover from the most recent moderate El Nino event to the current strong event.

THIRD : SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES

Spring Begins With A Winter Finale

• LIGHT-TO-MODERATE SNOW EVENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
• COMPUTER MODELS BACKED OFF EARLIER IDEAS OF A HEAVY SNOWFALL. PERHAPS 1-2" WILL ACTUALLY SHOW UP ON THE GROUND, AND PRIMARILY ON GRASSY & UNPAVED SURFACES.
• PAVED SURFACES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY WET WITH SOME SNOWCOVER ON SUNDAY MORNING. 
• REFREEZING OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

BELOW: 

Updated current snowfall projection of what may fall (but not actually be on the ground) by 8 AM Sunday from the U.S. GFS model. Snow will exit the region Sunday night.

10:00 AM EDT 3/19 -  The map above depicted a recent computer model surface projection for 8 PM Saturday 3/19. The expected arrangement which has been shown for several days now is a moderate High pressure system in southeast Canada favorably positioned offset a coastal Low. This would lead to an overnight timing of precipitation that may produce accumulation on grassy, unpaved surfaces and some untreated surfaces. Key considerations:

• Temperatures: Recent warm conditions will permitted residual heat to be retained in paved surfaces. Even though air temperatures are projected to go below freezing at times Sunday night, some ground areas should stay above freezing. Areas that are shaded, at elevations above 500 feet, or less traveled cannot be ruled out for accumulation on paved surfaces.

• Precip Amounts: The European model backed off earlier ideas of a 10-14" snowfall along the I-95 corridor, and is now in line with the NOAA GFS model showing 3-5".

• Sun Angle: This time of year, any model projection for high accumulation has to be taken as suspect. Angle of the sun by midday is the equivalent to mid-October. Although snow is likely to be "falling" quite heavily on Sunday, you may actually see the sun shining through the clouds -- and not much beyond an inch at any one time laying on the ground. 

PRECIP AT 2 AM SUNDAY 

 TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM SUNDAY

THE MONDAY AM COMMUTE? 

Some refreezing is possible due to temperatures dropping into the mid 20s early Monday AM as snow exits the region. However, it is probable that many roads may be just wet and any pre-treatment by salting crews should negate accumulation problems on roadways.

TEMPERATURES AT 8 AM MONDAY

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"I Won't Back Down."

- 1989 single by Tom Petty & the Heartbreakers

• ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF EL-NINO ENHANCED MOISTURE TO DRENCH WESTERN & CENTRAL U.S. NEXT 2 WEEKS. Although El Nino is fading down from it's January peak, the effects of high moisture input means it won't feel like the phenomenon is backing down much for several more months.

• ADDITIONAL 10"+ OF RAIN FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA & NEVADA TO PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY.

• MID-ATLANTIC & EAST BEGIN WITH SEASONAL MARCH CONDITIONS, LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS, THEN RECORD HEAT & SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAKS BY END OF THE MONTH. 

For Powderhounds, the place to go is Mammoth Lakes, California. The resort has received 4 feet of snow since Sunday with more expected this weekend. At last report, the new base was 165 inches according to the LA Times. Click the link for stunning photos of the monster snowfall.

For Spring-A-Lings, get ready for some equally intense rain from the central U.S. to the East coast next 7 days. Below is the NOAA DAY 7 PRECIPITATION FORECAST through WED 3/16 showing 10"+ for the Mississippi Valley, with the rain and humidity shifting East by next week.

BELOW

ENHANCED SATELLITE OF WESTERN U.S. SHOWS SETUP OF PINEAPPLE EXPRESS BRINGING HEAVY RAIN & HIGH WINDS TO PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST

BELOW

30 DAY PROJECTIONS SHOW INCREASED PROBABILITY 

FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES + PRECIPITATION

For winter weather lovers in the Eastern U.S., we are sad to report you have reached the End of the Line this season.

This Is It.
1979 song title by Kenny Loggins in the album Keep The Fire

FRIDAY'S WHIFF OF SNOW LIKELY TO BE WINTER'S 

FINALE FOR MOST AREAS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC 

BELOW: 

U.S. GFS snowmap for 1 PM Friday shows a general 1-2" for the region. 

Light snow expected to begin by 9 PM and continue into the AM commute

LONG RANGE INDICATIONS SHOW "SPRING SPORTS" SEASON MAY FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMER, AS HIGHS COULD HIT 75-80 F BEFORE THE FIRST DAY OF SPRING!

8-14 day NOAA temperature probability shows a growing chance the 

Eastern U.S. may see much above normal temps toward middle weeks of March.