Monday, January 2, 2017

Help is almost here.

Help is almost here.
  • WHITE IN THE WINTER NIGHT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR WV AND WA, REACHING I-95 CORRIDOR BY 8 PM. SNOW OVERNIGHT OF 1" OR MORE BETWEEN PA/MD LINE & DC METRO
  • CRITICAL END-POINT TIMING OF SNOWFALL ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL INFLUENCE HOW FRIDAY AM COMMUTE PLAYS OUT. PREPARE FOR DELAYS AS EVEN LIGHT AMOUNTS WILL PRODUCE SLIPPERY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
  • A WEEK OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT LIKE THIS ACROSS THE U.S., FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC AIR MAY LEAD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN STATES  STARTING AFTER JANUARY 15.

4:00 AM ET 1/5 - It's time to move your snow plans into action. Although tonight's event for the Mid-Atlantic is not slated to produce major impact, for portions of our region the actual timing of the snowfall will be problematic for the Friday AM commute. This will include most of the MD Eastern shore and the I-66 to I-70 corridors & I-95 corridors. Main issues next 24 hours:

  • Two moisture sources = better snow chances. Two disturbances moving quickly toward the region will interact for a 12 hour period from 4 PM tonight to 4 AM Friday. The first is an upper level disturbance streaking east from the central plains. The second will be a developing coastal Low near the Carolinas.
  • How much snow? Not much, but very fine grained. The intensity of upper level cold was reported by NWS office in the west to allow this system a snow-to-liquid ratio of nearly 40 to 1! If you are a snow science enthusiast, that is like John Madden's Ultra Winter Fantasy Football. You try the math! Even just 0.05" of snow with a 30:1 ratio aloft could easily produce 1.5" at the surface. 
  • Fine flakes mean road war. This type of snow gets in every crack, nook and cranny of road surfaces because the extremely fine grained nature of the snow allows it to adhere instantly and quickly create a slick, thin sheen upon contact. With temperatures not slated to rise about 32 F for  most of the region west of the I-95 corridor until at least 12 PM, improvement in road conditions may not occur until late morning.   
  • What about timing? An NWS Hourly Weather Chart for Eldersburg, MD below is a representative location for the overall impact we believe will be observed from DC metro and the 270 corridor to eastern WV -- to central MD and southern PA.

HOW MUCH, WHERE AND WHEN? Snow maps from the Winter Weather sections at the Sterling VA NWS (Baltimore/Washington) and the Philadelphia/Mt. Holly NWS below:




10:00 PM ET 1/2 - You love it when we talk like this...right? For true Powderhounds, nothing gets your winter inner child emanating with crystallized enthusiasm than those special words for when we know it's true: Significant, major, high precipitation, prolonged. Those may be winter fight'in words, but they taste like snow for chocolate. Just look at this map of US Hazards to know it's real.


                      Above: Day 3-7 Weather Hazards from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Truth is, we don't arrive at these statements lightly. Though rhere are a lot of things we would like to say right now, our public forecasting rules put a limit on what kind of wintry language we are permitted to issue this far out to the general public.

But there is always another way. The most efficient way to find out what we really think, and get advance knowledge from the most highly regarded private network of winter intelligence operatives in the business: Be an Insider yourself

Look over the details and consider being in the know, before the snow. 

- The FF Insider Team


20 comments:

Pat Abrahms said...

Appears to be following a significant southern track that would eliminate Maryland.

HOCO NOGO said...

Mrs. A - JB and Henry Margusity both suggest the trend is for a more northerly track than the models indicate. I'll take a Friday delay - it's been a rough week already.

Pat Abrahms said...

LOOKING LIKE A 2 HOUR LATE OPENING MAY BE POSSIBLE, BUT AS WLAYS, IT'S ALL ABOUT TIMING.

Pat Abrahms said...

Ok in just a few hours since my last post I am backing off on that delay. Of course again it might be timing but I just don't see it coming together for Baltimore area counties.

Butch Dynomite said...

Well it's fun to watch anyways.Like most of yall I would love to be in the bullseye - I am happy for those who get it ( who want it and don't have to get anywhere in a hurry). I'm not optimistic for the Baltimore area.

lowlander=rain said...

I am sure they will dump tons of salt down for one inch of snow (seems like they salt more for little events than the big ones lol) heck they put salt down for rain most of the time. I think schools Friday morning will go on time but we do live in Maryland and the hint of snow causes delays which is sad so i guess anything can happen.

NeedaSnowday said...

Okay....... it's time to get this party started! I know this is just a little dusting, but we got to start somewhere..


ROLL CALL!!!

BP
Butch
BBR
Mike C
WVA Mom
WestSide
Amy
KyleZ
Juleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
and of course ------ Andy!

KyleZ said...

KyleZ reporting for duty!! Have a heavy dusting in harford with maybe quarter inch on the grass with no accumulation on roads or sidewalks. Snow seems to have slacked off at the moment and it looks like the typical north and west are getting more especially south pa and along the mason dixon. Andy will probably cash in tonight with colder temps for a couple inches along with road accumulation. Definitely to warm here for road stickage right now at least.

Butch Dynomite said...

Some sources ( ones yall introduced me to) have been suggesting a slightly more northerly track of sat morning storm.

Butch Dynomite said...

Also : earth.nullschool.net

KyleZ said...

Sounds good to me butch last night was a big disappointment for this lowlander with maybe a half inch of snow. I heard a little nw trend on the recent gfs so we shall see. It is kind of radar watching time to see how big the precip shield is and how far west it extends. Hopefully we can squeak out a couple inches it is going to be very cold tomorrow so hopefully whatever precip we get the ratios will be very high. Have fun you southerners looks like you take the cake on this storm.

HZfisher said...

Here is Northern Baltimore County we were pushing 2 inches of snow.

Pat Abrahms said...

Looking at tomorrow's forecast for the southern part of the State with a focus on OC. Looks like south of D.C. And lower, slower eastern shore may get slammed.

chris Warner said...

I guess the weekend storm is tracking slightly for to the north? Winter weather adv for AA County.

Pat Abrahms said...

Sounds like the storm is moving further north. Looks like Baltimore could even get a few inches.

OC is preparing already, our landscapers have just complete pre-salting the properties to assist with snow removal efforts after the storm.

Mike Cheuvront said...

I'm here.

Julee said...

Present. AND happy for our Hereford Zone 2 hour delay!
Again, I was watching the birds in our library quad. They were
eating like crazy. I fed them five times yesterday,
so I KNEW the Hereford Zone wasn't getting some paltry
little dusting.

Terrie Mead said...

Anything new for Annapolis? NWS is forecasting 2-4 possible. To quote Charlie Brown, "I know I should be happy, but I'm not."

Pat Abrahms said...

Good morning all! I cannot get my BP online name to work so my real name is posting, hope it's not confusing. Glad to be back for another winter. I need to go out this morning to run a few errands so hoping drivers will proceed with appropriate caution on a snowy morning.

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