Friday, January 13, 2017

Wintry Weekend Ahead
  • NWS FORECASTS AND COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC FROM EARLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
  • SIGNIFICANT TO MAJOR ICE STORM IS LIKELY ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN U.S. THROUGH SUNDAY.

Light freezing rain in the daybreak hours of Sunday, January 18, 2015 led to this 20-car pileup in New York City and hundreds of other precipitation-related accidents throughout the region. Image credit: New York Post.

Widespread ice storm expected from Midwest to southern Plains



Projected U.S. surface map for 7 AM EST Saturday by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center shows a large area of potential ice accretion is possible to likely from northern Texas through the southern Great Lakes states to the Mid-Atlantic. 


  • READERS MAY RECALL IN 2015, ON THE SUNDAY BEFORE MARTIN LUTHER KING DAY, A RELATIVELY MINOR GLAZING OF ICE (LESS THAN 0.01") CAUSED SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR FROM WASHINGTON TO NEW YORK. (Example: 1/18/15 articles by WTOP and New York Post.)
  • HOURLY FORECAST CHART FOR BEL AIR, MD IS A REPRESENTATIVE LOCATION FOR PROJECTED PRECIPITATION HAZARDS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION. PAST EVENT SHOW THAT EVEN LOW PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WHERE ROADS ARE UNTREATED. 



Projected surface map for 7 AM ET Saturday 1/14



5 comments:

chris Warner said...

Looks like it will be messy. I'm not happy that my son's second basketball game in a row will likely be cancelled.

KyleZ said...

Seems a little over done by the weather service considering the temperatures are still in the 40s and the road and soil temperatures are very warm. I understand that ice can be treacherous but i dont see any accumulating on the roads even if the temps are at or a little below freezing. Temps will probably have to run 29 or below to overcome the warm ground especially during the day saturday unless you are a mountain man like Andy lol. Also this is not a very dynamic system with tons of moisture so heavy precip rates wont be around so light rates cant overcome the warm ground. As always its maryland so anything can happen that is just my two cents to what i think will happen the salt crews will dump salt just to have 33-34 and light rain. I hope i am wrong and we pull off an event like Portland did this passed week.

Pat Abrahms said...

Sleet and freezing rain most of today but roads remain in good shape thus far. After dark all bets are off. Please be careful if you must drive. Although the Road surface has been warm there will be slick spots tonight.

Mike Cheuvront said...

MJO going into phase 1-2 down the road so we need to hope NAO is negative at the same time to allow nice blocking for any southern born storm that moves north up the coast.

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