Friday, February 24, 2017

She drives me crazy

"She Drives Me Crazy." - Part 2
-Fine Young Cannibals, 1989
  • La Nina: The main source of your weather frustration due to inconsistency of patterns this season. Why? Lack of a strong signal from multiple factors (Weak polar air, limited moisture transport from oceans, reduced snow cover) produces the type of erratic outcomes we have seen in 2016-17.
  • Are we done? Probably not. Potential is rising for a resurgent period of significantly colder air in the eastern U.S. from March 3 through 15. Several clippers in this period would have favorable conditions to produce snowfall, including ample moisture and overnight freezing temperatures enabling accumulation.
  • Hope for the future: NOAA Climate models are pointing to rising  chance of a weak El Nino by this coming Fall, with some similarities to the 2002-03 episode that produced a snowy winter in the East. Until then, the temperature trends are one reason why the current La Nina pattern drives us crazy -- see below for the flip flop that's coming in the next 2 weeks.
(Red is above normal, Blue is below normal)


Tuesday, February 7, 2017

So you're telling me there's a chance...

"So you're telling me there's a chance?"
-Jim Carrey in 1994's Dumb & Dumber

Rising potential for a brief, heavy accumulating snow event 
in the eastern Mid-Atlantic starting early Thursday morning.


  • Yes, we know it's warm, that's the issue: Air and road temperatures on Wednesday in the 50s or 60s will be accompanied by considerable moisture from a system crossing  the Southeast and heading to the coast. See the projected surface map for 7 AM Thursday. 
  • By Wed evening, an influx of much colder air into the mid-Atlantic states from Arctic High pressure moving into the Great Lakes may convert the moist environment above the region to heavy, wet snow. 
  • This event will be all about THE LINE. Not the freezing line, but the temperature line at 5000 feet as shown above. With 0.50" of liquid yet to move through by 1 AM Thu, upper level temperatures of -4 C to - 8 C from the 95 corridor to interior PA, WV and northern VA would allow rapid development of heavy, wet snow across many metro areas. This could result in low visibility and roads becoming slippery under several hours of snow bursts over many metro and interior areas. 

  • Yearning for a glimmer of hope for just a teensy bit of snow? Your wish is about to be granted. To be fully in the know, we invite you to lock in a full experience in winter intelligence, by becoming an Insider. They knew about this storm two weeks ago, and it's time you should be in on that, right? 

- The FF Winter Stormcast Team