Friday, March 10, 2017

Seriously?

Big Kahuna 2 years in a row? 

11:00 AM ET SAT 3/11 UPDATE
  • No major changes to current storm forecast ideas noted below. Some computer models have shifted tracks a distance east or west, as is expected and customary in the days prior to a major event. 
  • Confidence remains high for accumulating snow across the region, however finer details of how much falls in which locations is not yet fully established due to changes in liquid amounts.
  • Cold air to remain in place prior to and after the event, enhancing impact to roads in all areas regardless of starting or ending precipitation type. 


If computer models stay on target with current ideas, many of us may 
have some heavy lifting to do soon. If not, this picture can stay in your memories.
  • SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF MID-ATLANTIC REGION EAST OF I-81 TO WASHINGTON-BALTIMORE-PHILADELPHIA METRO REGIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
  • LIQUID EQUIVALENTS OF 1.0-2.0 INCHES MAY PRODUCE INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
  • SNOW AMOUNTS OF 5" OR MORE MAY BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE REGION, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IF THE STORM SHIFTS WEST.
  • TEMPERATURES IN TEENS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, IMPACTING SCHOOLS AND COMMUTERS DUE TO EXTENSIVE REFREEZING OF SNOW MELT RUNOFF.

SURFACE MAP: 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING: 
Looks like a Big Kahuna to us.


LATEST STORM SCENARIOS

SCENARIO A - 60%: Big Kahuna significant accumulating snow event across the Mid-Atlantic region with up to 5" common by Tuesday morning.

SCENARIO B - 20%: Some But Not A Lot due to a westward shift in track that moves axis of heaviest snow into morthern & western MD and southern to central PA, leaving 95 corridor with 5" or less.

SCENARIO C - 20%: Big KaNONa with a last minute pull to the East, bringing heaviest snow to coastal Eastern shore and leaving 95 corridor and interior areas with flurries. 


12:00 PM THU 3/9 UPDATE BELOW


Think of it as an early April fools.
  • CONFIDENCE GROWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT LATE WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE MID-ATLANTIC & NORTHEAST REGIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
  • NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL & BAY AREAS.
  • OVER 1.0" OF LIQUID SUGGESTS HEAVY WET SNOW A PROBABLE OUTCOME, ACCUMULATIONS OF 5" OR MORE LIKELY FOR AREAS WEST OF I-95.
  • AM TEMPS 15-20 F WED-FRI TO BRING EXTENSIVE REFREEZING & ROAD ICE.
  • IF NOT HAPPY ABOUT THIS, NEITHER IS THE SNOWCAT. 
5:00 AM ET Fri 3/10  - Now that the word is getting around you will have snow next week, no doubt there will be lots of questions for details. For Winter's last hurrah, we invite you to join the Insiders for direct access to our forecasts via app, notifications and text alerts. 
FANTASTIC SNOW IS COMING BACK, AND WE KNOW WHERE TO FIND IT. Visit the Insiders portal for details, and be a true Powderhound for the grand finale you've been waiting for all season!

How much? Let's just say...more than you've seen in March for a long, long time. Many areas in the Mid-Atlantic are likely to see 5 inches or more, if the most probably scenario plays out as expected. Below is a short version in 3 steps to how your snow dreams may come true next week in the Northeast U.S., especially if you are a teacher, student or Powderhound-at-large.

Remember last time the European model locked onto to a major storm solution 5 days out?
You guessed it, January 2016. Here's the map for 8 AM Tuesday 3/14 (Known as Pi Day)

  • STEP 1: FRIDAY.  A fast-moving clipper on Friday unlocks the gates to Canada, and much colder air. What you get: The chance to watch wet snow fall in the daytime from your office, home or classroom window, and not stick much.
  • STEP 2: SATURDAY-SUNDAY. Truly Arctic air rushes in behind that southern system we discussed in the previous "You may fire when ready" article. What you get: Highs in the 30s, lows in the teens. That's serious cold for March. 
  • STEP 3: MONDAY-TUESDAY. Now the fun part. Since the southern system this weekend would have been pushed SOUTH, you thought that means the Mid-Atlantic escapes, right? In reality, leftovers from that system interact with Gulf and Atlantic moisture, which starts riding back north. By Monday, a fast moving upper level disturbance is expected to "activate" that moisture and develop it into a surface Low near the Carolinas. What you get: A potentially significant coastal winter storm with some similarities to the December 19, 2009 storm. A multi-day event that would "interfere" with next week with accumulating snow starting Monday night.


VISUAL EVIDENCE FROM NOAA & THE MODELS THUS FAR ?
  • Snowfall Probability for the Northeast Corridor, already at 30-50% six days out, which in our book is very high this early.
  • U.S. Hazards Outlook for early next week. Now let's consider some new vocabulary we haven't yet learned this year. Think of a word you could use to describe weather that contains a) heavy precipitation; b) high winds and c) much below normal temperatures? ;-)

  • Mid-Atlantic Liquid Precipitation by next Wednesday. Let's pretend that liquid is falling out of the sky where temperatures are less than 32 F, and come to think of it, the ground will be also! If that liquid reached the ground, gosh, something might happen. Now, what if that liquid amount is, say 2 inches. Have your multiplication tables ready? Remember, 1 inch of rain = 10 inches of snow! Ok, here we go: (Liquid amount, 2.0") x (Snow ratio, 10) = ________. (Your answer) Wouldn't that be fun!
The light purple area are 2.0" of liquid or higher.

"DON'T MINCE WORDS, BONES-- WHAT DO YOU REALLY THINK?" - Capt. Kirk
  1. Favorable long range conditions indicate a significant snow event is increasingly possible across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast starting by late Monday and may continue into Wednesday 3/15.
  2. Factors that normally limit snow accumulation in March in areas south of PA, such as sun angle, road temperature and low moisture amounts are not expected to affect this potential system-- due to overnight onset of snow, January-like temperatures and 4 days of roads at sub-32 F overnight. 
  3. Changes in the amount of moisture, arrival and departure of cold air, and onset of precipitation will have major effect on outcome of the storm. A delayed onset would mean rain/snow mixed for 95 corridor from Baltimore to DC, Richmond and east. An earlier onset late Monday or  by 12 AM  Tuesday could produce widespread high impact to commutes and schedules Tue and Wed.
  4. Near-blizzard conditions are possible for coastal areas from New Jersey to Maine from Tuesday night into Wednesday.
WHAT'S THE BOTTOM LINE PROBABILITIES FOR TUE 3/14?
  • 40% chance of major coastal and inland impact from the Atlantic to the 95 and 270 corridor westward to I-81, including heavy snow, wind and coastal beach erosion. With temperatures of 25-30 F several days after, schedules and events would be impacted due to multi-day refreezing of snowmelt.
  • 40% chance the system gets pushed East or south and out to sea, snowfall limited to the MD/VA Eastern shore.  
  • 20% chance of an inland cutter, bringing strong winds and windswept rain to the 95 corridor, with extremely heavy wet snow in the interior, and blizzard conditions from NYC to southern New England. 
We shall see how it all shakes out over the next few days.  But we can say, this is not a joke nor a drill, and in the timeless words of actor Leslie Neilsen, "Yes I am serious and don't call me Shirley."



Contributors to this report:
  • Winter Stormcaster Forecaster Connor Meehan (team member since Dec 2010)
  • Winter Stormcaster Troy Arcomano (member since Fall 2013)
  • Meteorologist Jolene Wagner (member since April 2011)
  • Executive Director Keith Krichinsky (member since Dec 2010)
  • Founder and CEO Rich Foot (member since 2004)

28 comments:

terpguy said...

BONES: I'M A DOCTOR JIM...NOT A METEOROLOGIST!!

ravensbbr said...

Methinks something wicked this way comes...

NeedaSnowday said...

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

HIT ANIMATE!! HIT ANIMATE!!!
wooohooooo!


Pat Abrahms said...

So my regulars are posting which is indicative of the significance of the event. Once we see Andy's interpretation of the event post I will take serious notice. In the meantime good planning is important to get projects in on time as the quarter nears closing on the 24th.

Btw, this is BioPat, I cannot use my online name in the new format.

Detritus Effluvium said...

Just got a new-ish tractor with 4WD and a bucket so I'm more pro-snow than usual so I can try it out. I know I'm being selfish with no regard for other people's feelings, but I hope we get 20" of backbreakingly wet snow.

Kelly Tucker said...

My husband is going away on Sunday, so I have no one to shovel...Do I care???? NO, bring it on!!! So mad it has taken this long for something to come along. I just hope it pans out this time and we get at least 8 inches of wonderful, glorious, white, quiet, snow...I want some picture perfect snow!

Westsidehideaway said...

Hi Everyone. Glad we have something to talk about. Let's have some good fun with this one. I'm gonna stack up some firewood by the back door and stock up the fridge with goodies.

Butch Dynomite said...

Started stacking and stocking... I

chris Warner said...

Most importantly, the beer fridge has been topped off.

Pat Abrahms said...

Went shopping this evening to avoid the Saturday rush for toilet paper, bread and milk. I, too, hope we have lots to talk about over the next several us.

maria ce 4848 said...

I have missed you this year Foot's. It's nice to see ya :)

Kathleen Crouse said...

It's nice to see everyone chatting again!

HOCO NOGO said...

March Manwich? Andy?!?

Detritus Effluvium said...

Looks like Lancaster and Chester Counties in PA are getting 23" but York Co. is in the 14" - 17" band. I think Andy will have something to say about that.

Pat Abrahms said...

Forecast this morning sounds interesting with snow then rain then back to snow with strong winds. This could be a significant mess. I'm looking for more information and in particular a break down of the event from Andy. We need to know if this might be a manwich event.

Muselock Holmes said...

Here in Severna Park, the acorns tops don't lie! The only four years since early 2000 where there have been one or two significant snow dumps we have had the SAME ACORN SCENARIO. No other years! 100% accuracy. Crazy right? #fatsquirrelsknowthedeal

Butch Dynomite said...

I gotta say I love the ... We will call it " folk casting" I just got a picture in my head of a little squirrel in a suit in front of a weather map.

Pat Abrahms said...

Justin Berk just posted his first call snow map which is really open ended but definitely down from the early projections of 24" plus. It now looks like it could be in the 14 - 18" range but even that as a wet snow coupled with high winds will be dangerous. The media is picking us on this as an almost fun event as the first real snow storm of winter 2017. Maybe tomorrow, post DLS adjustments they will advise folks to be prepared for an unfriendly scenario. My husband and I just had a meeting of the minds and decided to cook a dinner tomorrow that will produce significant leftovers that can be consumed hot or cold just in case of power outages.

Pat Abrahms said...

If u don't have a generator, this might be a good weekend to catch a sale and buy one with those IRS returns that I no longer see.

Westsidehideaway said...

Just hit the grocery store and Ellicott City Asian Markets. Bought some exotic stuff to have fun with in the kitchen. Fireplace cranks up in a bit for the weekend. We are ready for snow watch here in West Baltimore. Have fun everyone!!

Pat Abrahms said...

West side sounds like your house is the place to be for stormy sustenance. Nothing so exotic on my end, I pulled a round roast out of the freezer to thaw for tomorrow and after with some creativity. I also picked up extra propane for the grill just in case it is needed. I found the stores somewhat more croweded today but perhaps tomorrow it will settle in that the possibility of no power due to high winds.

I guess Andy is busy studying maps and stockpiling manwich. We are out to dinner with friends this evening so I will catch up with any new thoughts tomorrow morning. Don't forget to set those clocks ahead tonight all!

Julee said...

Ha ha haaaaa -- as IF we couldn't have snow without Andy.

Wait! We can't have SNOW without ANDY!!!!!

NeedaSnowday said...

Yes, squirrels and birds must know the deal.... my feeders are empty!! Going to suck to lose an hour of sleep....but if we get off Tuesday and Wednesday that would certainly help!

Bring it on!

Uncle Rico said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Uncle Rico said...

Error percentages too high. This will be a rain event only.

KyleZ said...

Wow I am completely shocked at the model projections tonight/morning for the Monday/Tuesday storm they show the whole area getting NUKED. I had completely packed up and went into spring mode. Uncle Rico you better pray for rain buddy because what these models are spitting out is insane, plus we have had a cold few days in front of this storm too which should help. Euro is the only one left to confirm this. Honestly getting anything over 6 inches in march is an amazing feat in itself but if we get a foot plus and even more possibly this will be a kahuna to remember:)

Pgie Tbiter said...

Local stations lowering Baltimore City expected total to 3" to 6". This may turn out to be a big nothing burger for the Baltimore/Washington corridor.

như thủy said...

Thanks for sharing, nice post!

Giaonhan247 chuyên dịch vụ mua hộ hàng mỹ uy tín giá rẻ và dịch vụ mua hàng hộ tphcm uy tín nhất cũng như giải đáp mua hàng trên amazon có tính thuế không và hướng dẫn mua hàng trên ebay ship về việt nam cũng như cách mua hàng trên amazon ship về việt nam uy tín.