Monday, March 13, 2017

Something Wicked This Way Comes

Big Kahuna To Blizzard The Northeast


  • BLIZZARD WARNINGS EXPANDED (RED) TO INCLUDE PHILADELPHIA METRO, EASTERN PA & NORTHERN NEW JERSEY FOR 18-24" 
  • WINTER STORM WARNINGS (PINK) IN EFFECT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. Check your local NWS office for latest official details on current statements. Click Advisory map -->
  • HIGH IMPACT EVENT with multi-hazards. Please refer below to Storm Information Graphic and NOAA Winter Weather Safety graphics.
  • POST-STORM: Sub 20F temps & widespread refreezing of snow melt each morning. 


Current Regional Radar 



National Radar



"Something Wicked This Way Comes..."
-Macbeth, Act 4, Scene 1

UPDATE FROM 3:00 PM SUN 3/12



  • HIGH IMPACT MAJOR WINTER STORM WITH HIGH ACCUMULATIONS FROM METRO AREAS OF DC-BALTIMORE-PHILADELPHIA-NYC-BOSTON.
  • WINTER STORM WATCHES & WARNINGS POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL & NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. 
  • BLIZZARD WATCHES & WARNINGS FOR NEW YORK CITY, LONG ISLAND TO BOSTON METRO
  • SNOW ONSET BY MONDAY NIGHT, HEAVY INTO TUESDAY, 6" OR MORE LIKELY BY DAYBREAK IN AREAS COVERED BY WARNINGS.

3:00 PM EDT 3/12/17 - Remember the March 1993 SuperStorm? Then you have a sense of what's coming. If not, it's high snowfall rates + cold temperatures + crazy wind = Dangerous, wicked storm that is coming.

SNOWFALL: The craziest heavy wet snow this region has seen in March since 1993. At least 6" area wide is projected from Washington DC north in the region between west of I-95 to I-270 at Frederick, then into southern and eastern PA.  This includes the Baltimore-Harrisburg-Philadelphia metro areas. 

Some areas may reach 12" by DAYBREAK Tuesday, where heavy snow bands setupThe Sterling NWS has said, "some location may see significantly higher accumulations" as posted in the latest Winter Storm Watch from last night.

INTENSITY: Thundersnow and Lightning like you've never seen. 

  • Over 1" of snow per hour will be common early Tuesday morning, and 3" an hour or higher is possible for areas near the Bay and where Atlantic moisture transport plows into embedded thunderstorms. 3"? How? 
  • When deep moisture transport from the Atlantic plows into a "Games of Thrones" wall of cold, it is forced rapidly upward not unlike convective thunderstorms. Result: Wildly intense thundersnow you've not heard in a long time.
  • Liquid Projections of 2.0" or greater will enhance this effect, see below for maps.
TEMPERATURES: In 1993, temps were in 50s two days before, not this time. 
  • 3 days of subfreezing overnight temps to chill roads, and an overnight onset of snow with heaviest amounts coming between 10 PM and 8 AM
  • 3 more days of very cold overnight lows in the teens. Result: Mid-Atlantic region ends up locked in an icebox until Friday morning.
WIND: Derecho-sounding wind overnight Tuesday.
  • New York City to Long Island and coastal southern New England have a Blizzard Watch already, for sustained winds of 35 mph over at least 3 hours during the storm. 
  • For the Philadelphia-Baltimore-Washington area and westward to I-81 in central PA to northern VA,  winds up to 25 mph will be widespread. 
  • Areas near the Bay will see near-blizzard conditions with winds gusting to 35 mph at times. 
IMPACTS: Most dangerous multi-hazard event in region since January 2016.
  • See our Storm Impact Graphic below, this is a dangerous multi-hazard event including cold temperatures, heavy wet snow and strong winds which will down trees and power lines.  
  • High water content of the snow will make for difficult removal, so we advise frequent breaks and neighbors helping neighbors to prevent avoidable loss of life from shoveling.
OUTAGES: Widespread outages by Tuesday morning with restoration difficult.
  • Emergency crews may not be able to restore your power as quickly as it went down, due to blocked, snow-covered roads and heavy wet composition of snow making removal difficult. 
  • If your area is prone to lose power, have alternate plans in place- either relocating where power exists or being able to stay warm with overnight temperatures in the teens.
SNOWFALL MAP: NWS EASTERN REGION 



MARCH 2017 BIG KAHUNA INFO GRAPHIC



               WINTER STORM SAFETY RESOURCES 



Our wishes to all for safety and wise choices during this upcoming time of "Double double, toil and trouble" you weren't expecting to see as we close out this season that was at times, called Winter.






61 comments:

Dollar Flipper said...

Glad we're going to have at least one storm on the books this year! Can't believe it's in March though.

Mike Cheuvront said...

Kind of in shock I guess. Completely did not expect this. If it happens may it be the best in history🎉😏🙌🏻

ravensbbr said...

Mike, I think it's a safe bet to say that you, Andy, myself, and any other Highlanders up here will get schwacked. For the lowlanders, that's a technical meteorological term up here for when you can't see 10 yards in front of your face due to whiteout puking blizzard snow...

...so maybe that's too graphic for a Sunday morning. All I know is, I'm 2x checking the generator and making sure we have non-perishables aplenty. Worst case is...we eat said non-perishables in a 5 inch snow storm. The economy gets a temporary boost from all the shopping, everybody happy, happy, happy. ;-)




Pat Abrahms said...

Good morning all! Finally we can all get together to share some thoughts and fun albeit in March for the first time this season. After confirming today's forecast is still on track I decided it is now time to get the snowblower ready. It hasn't moved since last March but was just tuned up in March so hopefully all is well.

Since our daughter moved out last summer we are on our own for clearing walks and driveway. We will just take it slow knowing thankfully that there will be no rush to get to work with schools closed.it has been over 20 years since we did this by ourselves so we shall see how the old bones still work under pressure.

Westsidehideaway said...

I'm calling this event: March Madness, Powderhound Style!

ravensbbr said...

I hope Andy didn't run into some bad Manwich or something...

Hopefully he shows back up here and lends some credence to this message board and all of our amateur musings...

#MIA #WHEREUATBRAH

chris Warner said...

Check out Justin Berk's forecast.

He has the model snowfall projections at the bottom. Canadian has us buried in central MD.

http://news.justinweather.com/2017/03/12/my-first-call-for-snowfall-with-potential-for-record-march-storm/

NeedaSnowday said...

Boom!💥
Generator ✔️
TP✔️
Shovel ✔️
Lesson plans 🚫
Excitement ✔️

Kathleen Crouse said...

Preparations going strong here in Ferndale! Fridge is stocked, snowblower ready to go and snow shovels brought up from the basement! We haven't lost power yet in one of these big storms but if we do the generator is fueled and ready to go as well, plus I have a million candles! We are very excited for our 10 month old Golden Retriever puppy who has never seen snow. He is going to have a ball along with our other Goldens! Plenty of towels ready! Stay safe everyone!

ravensbbr said...

Just got back from church, tuning snowthrower now, meatloaf and college bball later. Have to rebuild fuel line/filter/shutoff from manifold back to tank, dry rotted after no use this year so far...



Mike Cheuvront said...

Just got home from church also. Getting the Kubota tractor fueled up. Haven't used it since the last kahuna. I'm excited but still gun shy about such a big event so late in the season. Just trying not to get overly excited in case it falls apart. Modeling has been fairly consistent. Getting 3-4 loads of wood inside for the wood stove. No generator but heating and cooking is covered.

BioPat said...

With some coaxing the snowblower finally fired up and we let it run for about 20 minutes to get rid of any moisture that may have built up. Not too bad for a 20 year old machine! It is back in the garage until tomorrow afternoon when it will be locked into a safe position ready for use. I am working on grading some projects now to return to students tomorrow so hopefully they will work the snow day or 2 or maybe even 3!

Westsidehideaway said...

Aside from the usual supplies, I also got some cash for this storm. Here in West Baltimore we hope that a strong teenager or young man come by looking for work digging snow. Got to have the cash for this service and it's worth it. There was a small line at the ATM this morning. So I guess I'm not the only one thinking this way.

CBrow said...

Hello FF Followers, has anyone noticed the Full Moon affect that this storm may have on us. Yours thouhts!

Soexcited said...

This is my first post.

Julee said...

I ordered my AA and D cell batteries from Amazon today. None of that running from store to store trying to find them. They'll be delivered to the nearest locker for me to pick up tomorrow.
Don't have a generator, so thank you Amazon!
Also so glad that I have a gas stove/oven, so meals can be made.
Stay safe everyone!

p.s. Shout out to Needy and newly resurrected "BioPat!"

Soexcited said...

Well, thank goodness that works! I can't wait for the big event. This winter has really been bad with all this lack of snow and I haven't even use my snow shovel once (well, maybe in November, I can't remember). Anyways, we were out late last night and I had the foresight to not eat my entire meal with the knowledge that i would have leftovers this week. I could not decided between the crab cakes and the chicken parm, but figured the latter was a bigger portion and our friends (I don't care for the husband too much but my wife really likes the woman) would not pick up on the fact that i just wanted leftovers. I woke up feeling sick (probably drank to much) and should have listened to my wife about ordering that third beer, but it was so darn good. I knew there was a lot to do today but first there was this duty about taking the kid to hebrew school. I normally drive "to" and my wife picks up. I was not feeling well, as I said. And she wanted to go to Wegmans anyway. She said it was packed. Now, we are thinking about defrosting the tomato sauce that we made from our bumper crop of tomatoes this summer. But, do you think we will lose power? More later. Thanks.

Cathy in Bel Air said...

Where's Andy? I need to hear from Andy! Just not the same without Andy's eloquent commentary!!

Unknown said...

Paging Andy! I want to hear your thoughts on this snow!

Westsidehideaway said...

Hey Excited. Welcome to our snowy weather world!!

James said...

We want Andy -stomp stomp clapclapclap-

We want Andy -stomp stomp clapclapclap-

Westsidehideaway said...

Andy must have seen the forecast and split, headed for Mexico, Playa Del Carmen, hang with sexy Europeans on the beach with margaritas and Cuban cigars!!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

HMMMMMM..... Been living the April lifestyle for most of the winter. Shorts and barbecue nights have replaced storm tracking and plowing as the lifestyle of the day. Yes this new vulgar zeitgeist has invaded our sacred winter grounds. Relentless warm and dry has placed a dull rusty dagger in the powderhound heart. Now that we are safely in mid March any liberation from this oppressive rule seemed bleak, despite some long range model noise of cold and storms.

With St. Patrick's day upon us, I have been busy fine tuning my liver in anticipation of the mandatory excess libations that are soon to come. The recessive Springaling gene has been activated and all of my attention has been directed away from the powderhound lifestyle. Stockholm syndrome was my diagnosis and it was severe.

Instead of chasing storms and attempting to make sense of guidance, I have been looking for the Irish Leprechaun who would surely usher in permanent Spring. Well to my surprise, the Siberian Leprechaun is standing at the door with his icy baseball bat beating me out of my perennial malaise, and freeing me from my bird chirping, flowery, campfire song singing, captures.

SO, great to hear from all of you my hibernating brothers and sisters in captivity. Freedom is upon us!!!!!!!!

Welcome the the one hit wonder Kahuna of 2017!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

This is a large and dynamic coastal system. The final track which is yet to be resolved will determine the final totals in many areas. I am comfortable with saying that I expect a general 8-14 around Baltimore City and points north and west with a potential for more. The 8 would be along the bay gradually increasing as you move away from the bay. The issue will be how much sleet mixes in with the snow near the bay. No one can say at this point with any certainty how much sleet could mix in to the areas right near i-95. Where it does not mix look out! For out friends in northern Harford, Baltimore, Carroll. and into Frederick counties it should stay almost all snow. These areas and into PA stand to see totals of 14-24 inches. The Ocean and Bay are very warm for this time of year, and the storm will be very dynamic. With dynamic systems that we have had before there will be convective banding. Where those bands set up there will be totals that could hit the 24 inch mark. The limitation to the extreme totals and the wild card is how much sleet? I will be watching the track carefully and try to give you a better idea of what I think as we come a little closer. Either way a major storm for the entire Foot's central MD crew!

Westsidehideaway said...

Thank You Andy. Quite a story and forecast, indeed. As a dweller of West Baltimore City, eight inches will be enough to cause mayhem here. Any more, and it could be a 2-3 day distraction. Sleet mixed in would only contribute to the slowdown. Have fun with this one!!

Pat Abrahms said...

Welcome back Andy!,


Kathleen Crouse said...

So glad you're back Andy! We can't have a snowstorm without you!

Butch Dynomite said...

Only stacked a little wood today . I made an enormous pot of pho . I think I need to by wine on the way home from work . I didn't want to lean to hard into prep until we heard from Andy . I had my heart broke a couple times this winter

Westsidehideaway said...

Just watched Tony Pann's forecast and he is saying 7" for Baltimore City.

Brandi in DE said...

I am supposed to drive my boyfriend to BWI Tuesday evening. He is deploying. What are the odds?! I can't believe this.

James said...

Thank you Andy! Enjoy your libations, friend.

Michael Lombardi said...

So I have jury duty schedule in Baltimore County on Thursday. Is this going to be big enough to cancel courts Thursday? I'm worried about being able to get there with my small car and my apartment circle that doesn't get plowed until after everything else is plowed.

Nicholas Schuman said...

Any idea what's going on with aaCounty area were under a winter weather advisory 2 to 4 inches, but weather.gov is still predicting 6 to 12 inches where I live by the airport.

chris Warner said...

Nicholas, it's the dreaded rain/snow line. What is strange is that D.C. Is still in the 6-10 range.

Pat Abrahms said...

Good morning all! As I review today's strategies for the classroom all I am really thinking is, "how do I keep their attention with a "Kahuana" looming? I suspect the thing to do is just pay homage to the elephant in the room and then try and move on.

I'm as ready as possible, however Andy never mentioned how many cans of Manwich this storm may be. I guess the end of week celebration complete with green libations has distorted his frontal lobes a bit. Enjoy the anticipation of the event; I'm as excited a s a 6 year old on Christmas Eve!

Nicholas Schuman said...

Looking at the gfs reports and some other news outlets it looks like the rain snow line will set up close annapolis. Hopefully bwi stays in the blue sleet/snow mix is a pain to shovel!

Soexcited said...

Thank you Mr. Westside. I am so excited, I just can't hide it. Like the first day of Hanukkah with seven more to come! I hope we get so for eight straight days.

Detritus Effluvium said...

Just checked Weather Underground's site and they show less than 1" forecast for NE Maryland. They have been in decline for a while now but this is ridiculous.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

This is still an evolving forecast. My initial thoughts are the same as yesterday. Areas near the immediate bay and south of Baltimore are the big question mark. This is the kind I storm where Towson finished with 15 inches, Secerna Park 7, and Annapolis areas 2 to 5. The closer you are to the bay and further south of Baltimore City the bigger the question mark concerning sleet and mid level warm air intrusion. As details emerge and become more clear this afternoon I could see Anne Arundel County being upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. It all depends on the exact track of the storm. Another 25 mile jog to the east and heavy snow becomes the p-type in Anne Arundel County also. Stay tuned!

Mike Cheuvront said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Mike Cheuvront said...

Current positioning of the storm center is not favorable for a Kahuna in the southern and eastern areas of Maryland. With the sun angle and warm waters this storm must be perfectly placed to get 6-12" south of the northern counties. Obviously we want to maximize our amounts as this is likely 1 and done like Andy said. My concern is for a mid level infusion of warm air because the storm is too far west. This is a close call like Andy said and amounts could greatly differ over just a 25 mile distance. Praying we all get powerhounded and not slopified. ❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️❄️️😜

KyleZ said...

Expecting 2-4 inches of snow with a change over to heavy sleet here in Harford County due to the warm bay. There might a change back over to snow but that never usually works out for us Southerner Harford Coutians. Elevation is always key it seems and it looks like Andy will be King again up on his mountain:). I Have family just north of Stewartstown in PA Andy, looks like they will join in on the fun with you!!!

Kelly Tucker said...

Why haven't you all done an update? Many other channels are saying my area is now a rain event...UGH!!! It's you I go by, but your charts, etc. haven't changed. How can the news channels be updating their information, but you aren't. HELP!!!! Is Upper Marlboro out of the snow zone? Will PG County be in school tomorrow? Dang!!!!

Nicholas Schuman said...

As much as I would like to have a final call on this storm for aa county and of county this storm has alot going on with it we probably won't know the final result till it happens.

Mike Cheuvront said...

Been worried about the trend west with the storm. Latest run confirmed west. If this continues and the actual storm takes a more western track this will be a bust even into the northern counties. Sure is a love hate relationship for snow lovers in Maryland. Rarely does it work for all powderhounds statewide. Heart breaking if this bust for most.

Terrie Mead said...

I live off I-97 and 178. Your snow amt gives us up to 12" but AA county 4 - 8 and a winter wx advisory. What's the chance some of us in AA will get appreciable snow? And by appreciative snow I mean 12" ... other than,and I call it baby snow barely worth the trouble ;-)

ravensbbr said...

Don't give up the ship yet, Mike. Secondary low has yet to phase and really get cranking. Factor in some good ole' fashion dynamic cooling and banding, and I think your Kubota and my John Deere will still get a workout up here in God's hill country.

Bunkered down, dinner going, stay safe, good night, and good luck, everyone...

NeedaSnowday said...

Got flurries here in the Timonium area!!

Mike Cheuvront said...

Ravensbbr--Oh I'm not giving up on us highlanders. I think we will get thumped. I lived in Woodlawn for 40 years and I feel bad for them and those south of there. Lived here since 2004 in Manchester.

ravensbbr said...

Gotcha, Mike, couldn't tell if that was general despair or specific sympathy for the snow deprived. :-)

Wisconsin Native said...

I understand the pessimism on a La Nina winter that offered nothing so far. I will bring you back to Valentine's day 2014 and the models weren't supporting a boom, but low and behold it happened and we got crushed with snow. It outperformed all projections. This could be a bust, or we could follow exactly how those comments went with bewilderment as the snow just kept on coming. 17" in Hanover that storm, and I know many others got a ton more. Projections were calling for 6-10. Here's hoping for a good one.

http://www.footsforecast.org/2014/02/what-could-slumdog-possibly-know-answers.html

Butch Dynomite said...

I would Never bet on that second low... it jumps me somehow most of the time... yeah our weather sure is a funny riddle. But this group wouldn't exist if it was simple

Terrie Mead said...

How crazy is this ... it's 39 and flurries here. Here being just off I-97 south and Rt 178. Im thrilled to see flurries, but is this normal?

Wisconsin Native said...

Naturally I'm referring to the snow/rain line with regards to performing or underperforming. It appears this storm has a ton of moisture coming with it.

Rebecca said...

In the city near the Parkville line. Keep looking out the window waiting for the first flakes. I need this snow! Kids are planning on putting ice cubes in the toilets, wearing pjs backwards, and the spoons are under pillows. We did homework and I don't know where the snow shovels are. Can't think of anything else we can do to make it snow here. :-)

Terrie Mead said...

@Rebecca "Kids are planning on putting ice cubes in the toilets, wearing pjs backwards, and the spoons are under pillows." Hahahaha! I'm walking in the house now to make it happen!

Fatal flaw in your theory? Kids did there homework. Not good. For instance, I'm doomed as well. Sadly I did not wash my car and I fished from the basement the snow stick! Man! Rookie mistake! ;-)

Butch Dynomite said...

Checkout earth.nullschool. Net ... we can watch the low form. Realtime wind speed animation and a lot of other cool stuff

Terrie Mead said...

@butchdynamite Beautiful imagery! It's mesmerizing! Thanks for sharing :-)

Loosend said...

Hello Butch-Thanks for the link. I am trying to figure out how to change it to see the low detail but this is really cool.

Terrie Mead said...

I-97 and Rt 178 near Millersville: Moderate Snow changed to Snow/sleet mix about 20 minutes ago. Radar for my area still shows snow. Wind has picked up dramatically. Nothing crazy maybe 15/mph. Temperature is at 32 degrees.

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