Sunday, September 3, 2017

ALL MAGIC COMES WITH A PRICE

"All magic comes with a price."

PHOTO CREDIT: ABC STUDIOS
  • LAST UPDATED 4:45 PM 9/3/2017:  HURRICANE IRMA'S TRACK MAY PRESENT A LONG RANGE THREAT TO THE US MAINLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND. Effects, timing and areas of direct impact are uncertain at this time, but may be felt from Florida to the Mid-Atlantic. Analysis and details below or see our IRMA INFO CENTER or Let's Talk Flood Insurance

WHAT MAGIC? As "Rumple" might say, it's quite simple, dearie:
The magic is one can enjoy property near water, if the price of that risk is understood.

The risks come down to coastline physics. Some areas are geographically less susceptible to a land-falling hurricane (such as Savannah, GA), while other areas are known to be high risk locations but have a low probability in any one year of a strike (Chesapeake Bay). 

The map below is a general track trend as of Saturday 9/2 by all 20 members of the NOAA-operated Global Forecast System. Each member processes a slightly different set of algorithms, interpreting the existing data in various ways to generate a spread of possibilities. Note that in both maps, the Georgia coast is crossed by only 1 model member, whereas the Carolinas are littered with track options. With this in mind, we offer two general scenarios to evaluate as the week progresses.
  • SCENARIO A: Long range forecasts show a blocking High pressure system may drift into the North Atlantic by later this week, altering the path and resulting in more direct impacts on Florida. This would lessen the risk of effects to the Mid-Atlantic, but the Carolinas and Georgia would remain under threat.
  • SCENARIO B: While the storm is making the SW turn as forecast, it is also traveling more north of that path than expected. This could lessen the threat to Florida, Georgia and South Carolina, but increase the potential for impacts to North Carolina and eventually, the Mid-Atlantic. 
IF VIEWING ON SMARTPHONE, CLICK IMAGE BELOW FOR A CLEAR VERSION

UPDATED TRACK MAP AS OF 8 PM SAT 9/2/2017
NOTABLE CHANGE: Forward speed of the storm is slowing over several days, 
delaying its approach to East coast areas until early NEXT week (after Sunday 9/10)




PREVIOUS MAP AS OF 8 PM FRI 9/1/2017
This map is posted to provide comparison to the official NHC forecast, so it can 
be observed over time the difference between actual and projected tracks.  



QUESTIONS? Let us know in the comments on THIS site.
We will answer in Q and A format in a separate post on this site.

"THINK ABOUTS" for pondering & planning, just in case.
In the event plans have to be implemented, advance thinking is always helpful.


 A few sandbags could go a long way, depending on your situation.

HOMEOWNERS:
  • CHECK YOUR POLICIES on wind damage claims and sewer backup. Talk to your agent.
  • LIVE NEAR WATER? Live through Isabel? What might you do differently the next time?
  • SUPPLIES: If in a flood-prone area, would sand bags help? If so, scope out supplies now.
  • MOVING? We sure hope next weekend isn't move in day. Consider alternate dates if you can.

PARENTS / PET OWNERS:
  • GROCERIES: Are there bulk items you need or always like to have on hand? Avoid being in the big line if a Hurricane Watch was hoisted for your area.
  • DATA PLANS: What if your family all had to go to 4G for hours each day if no Wi-Fi? See what your provider would offer if you had to increase your data plan for 1 month.
  • FURRY FRIENDS: Enough food to provide them for a few weeks? It'll get used either way.
  • MEDICATIONS: Consider getting the 30- or 90-day prescriptions refreshed if they are low.

FACILITY / OPERATIONS MANAGERS:
  • LESSONS FROM SANDY: How are your resiliency plans for critical infrastructure, such as power generators below ground level, rotation & relief schedules for emergency on site staff/essential personnel?

EDUCATORS / ADMINISTRATORS:
  • Pretend it's Friday, September 8 and a your  school district has found itself within the "cone of uncertainty" of the projected paths for early next week. Even though the storm is 1000 miles away, school is in session because effects have not arrived and the storm's final path is not fully known. What preparatory issues would your staff need to consider when leaving the building on Friday if that were to happen?
Posted by the Foot's Forecast Tropical Team
contributors: C. Meehan, K. Krichinsky, R. Foot
Weather Intelligence. When you need it most.



1 comment:

Tina said...

I live 30 minutes inland from Rehoboth Beach. My husband is pooh-poohing something this far out, time-wise. I, on the other,hand, have been watching the consistency of the models and have started to prepare for evacuation.