Wednesday, September 6, 2017

A STORM OF ITS OWN

A Storm of Its Own
  • Irma underwent an eyewall replacement cycle Wednesday evening, and appears to have experienced no change in wind speed, indicating it has influenced the atmosphere to the point of creating its own environment.
  • 40 foot wave heights in Antigua and British Virgin Islands, see Swellinfo.com
  • Complete devastation reported on the island of Barbuda, with 90% of structures damaged or destroyed. An anemometer failed at 155 mph before breaking off. 
  • NO-WIN FLORIDA: An 18-24 hour path along the Florida East coast, if it is crossed by the western eyewall as a Category 4/5, would produce widespread catastrophic damage equivalent to Hurricane Andrew were it to travel a 200 mile path from Miami to Jacksonsville. "Grazing" or "scraping" the coast with winds of 120-150 mph would not be an appropriate term to describe the immense danger this storm presents.



CATEGORY 5 IRMA TUESDAY EVENING, WINDS 185 MPH. THAT'S WINDY.
5 MPH SHY OF ALL TIME STRONGEST ATLANTIC HURRICANE (ALLEN, 1980)

SITUATION SUMMARY as of 3:00 PM WED 9/6/2017
  • A SHIFT HAS BEGUN. Some models earlier Tuesday and into the evening began shifting the Florida landfall track ideas to eastern side of the state, and several have moved back into the Atlantic. These include the Tue afternoon output of the US Global Forecast System.
  • BIG PLAYERS: The current south/central Florida projected path for late this weekend remains a dominant threat. However, several features including a depression in the Gulf, newly minted Tropical Storm Jose, the Atlantic ridge and the approaching trough from the western U.S. are all influencing the track of Irma. These are among the many reasons behind track fluctuations. 
  • STILL IN THE WOODS: Interests in the Carolinas, Virginia, Maryland and the Delmarva should remain on alert and well-informed of additional track changes which may be coming. A number of scenarios have yet to play out which could quickly bring Irma toward the Southeast coast. If the southern edge of the High weakens, or the western trough arrives sooner, or Jose changes forward speed...any of these could introduce an "escape hatch" to the north. This is behind the sharp right turn everyone has been observing sees in the models. Another 36 hours will be telling on which part of the East coast country is at highest risk for impacts or landfall.
  • WHAT WE REALLY THINK? While all eyes and thoughts are on a potentially devastating strike to Florida -- as well remembering the daily suffering after Harvey -- eastward shifts in models and other players are hinting that original track ideas toward the Carolinas and coastal Mid-Atlantic cannot be ruled out. We encourage Emergency Managers from the Carolinas north to Virginia and Maryland remain on an alert footing and avoid thinking a Florida hit eliminates risk. There is no guarantee of any one model track becoming true.

MODEL MAP TRACK FROM SATURDAY 9/2/2017 FOR COMPARISON















2 comments:

BaltoLATeacher said...

What effect would a direct impact on the coast of the Carolinas have inland... say, in Charlotte?

Foot's Forecast said...

Thanks for your comment, we will post a response in our next update.