Saturday, September 23, 2017

"How do you solve a problem like Maria?"
- from Maria in the Sound of Music

  • WESTWARD SHIFT: Computer model trends past 24 hours are depicting a significant westward shift in Maria's track toward North Carolina's Outer Banks. 
  • CONE OF UNCERTAINTY: The National Hurricane Center's official track has also moved notably west, from solutions earlier this week that were all out to sea.
  • EXPANDED EFFECTS: A strong and large but slowly weakening tropical system results in an expansion of the wind field. A wider area will experience tropical-storm force winds than if the storm was very strong with a tightly-compacted wind core.
  • IMPACTS FOR MID-ATLANTIC COAST? Coastal communities from South Carolina to New Jersey will experience 72+ hours of large and increasing swells, persistent onshore easterly winds, water levels rising with each tide cycle and probable flooding in low-lying areas. 

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Interesting to see the current cone includes most of the Bay. I wonder how long it will take before the flood warnings go up along the Bay. Hopefully this will not extend too far up the Bay as the Susquehanna, with an impaired dam, could cause significant flood in Port Deposit and Harve de Grace.