Sunday, October 29, 2017

Why Can Autumn Tell Us About Winter?

Recent weather patterns across North America may signal
how winter begins in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. 

7:50 AM 10/29 - Part One of our story is to unpack how large scale influencing events in the past month may be setting in motion a pattern for first half of winter. 

Looking for something more intriguing and original? You'll have to read on to discover Part Two. We are introducing findings by high school student investigators who have uncovered surprising connections about the secrets winter has in store for us. 

PART ONE: To set the story, a look back at October:  

1) The long periods of above normal warmth in the west, evidenced by the widespread devastating wildfires that were preceded by 100 F+ temps in San Francisco;

2) The hard freeze in the central plains and deep south, with freeze warnings as far as central Alabama his weekend;

3) Prolonged warm and dry conditions in the East, interrupted by occasional cool spells.

Temperature-wise, the past month has played out a lot like what the next month is projected to do, according to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center's 3-4 week experimental outlook. The scenario we see unfolding as we turn the page to November:

Sunday, October 8, 2017

A Return To Normalcy? Not For A While.
  • RAIN RELIEF IS NATE'S FATE: Remnant moisture and wind from T.S. Nate overspreading the eastern third of the U.S. will reinforce the summer-like pattern seen in these areas since late September. The upside will be a welcome relief of rain to many dry areas baked in the recent warmth. See below for 7-day precipitation projections.
  • TEMPS STAY WARM: Long range temperature indicators show above normal temperatures for the mid-south, mid-Atlantic and northeast should continue through much of October.
  • BERMUDA HIGH HOLDING: As shown in the steering currents image from University of Wisconsin, the clockwise spin of air in the west Atlantic is maintaining a moist, tropical hold on the eastern U.S. while allowing Nate to fuel the fire even more with an infusion of fresh Gulf moisture into the pattern.

7-day rainfall projections from NOAA

What it all means?
Expect a warm, wet pattern through mid-October, returning to dry and windy toward end of the month. Unless of course the Gulf sends along another hurricane.