Sunday, January 28, 2018

Long summer = long winter

"A long summer always meant a long winter to come."
from A Song of Fire And Ice, Game of Thrones: Volume 1
- by George R.R. Martin

Image credit: DeviantArt - the Battle of Winterfell in Game of Thrones
While some enjoyed this January , the powers of Deep Winter are quietly but assuredly marshaling their forces in preparation for a second invasion. The ice on our rivers and lakes has broken and melted away, and snow cover has shrunk from its 50-state conquest earlier in the month.  Here in the dead middle of winter, has the season of powder hoisted the white flag? 

As the Chinese writer and strategist Sun Tzu once said, “Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak.”  This apparent weakness in the pattern may be a clever ruse to lull you into doubting if there's any more out there. We believe winter's biggest battle is still yet to come.

Above: A long range generalized projection by the European model of mean (average) snowfall potential through February 25, due to an expected second Arctic blast arriving in early February. 

This map is also only one of four events depicted as occurring in the 30 day period from January 30 to March 2. What it means? Cold and wind took led the charge in the season's first half. Now ice and snow look to finish strong in the second half. The opening volley launches this Tuesday to Friday.
The when, where and how to be addressed in our next post later today.

25 comments:

NeedaSnowday said...

WOW!! A POST!

ITS ALIVE!!! ITS ALIVE!!!!

Of course you can expect some fun weather coming since the ANNUAL DISNEY field trip in in the near future!!

ROLL CALL!!

DeadPrez said...

Welcome back Foot Crew!

Butch Dynomite said...

most of my friends use snowdays' forecasting method : Like " well I have a vacation planned so it will probably snow" . I can say I have been studying meteorology a little bit since last winter and this still seems an effective way of forecasting. Needless to say I hope for something big in the next couple of weeks . I'm going to stack some wood on the porch.

Westsidehideaway said...

Hello Foots Friends! So, an inch by morning? I’ll keep you posted from here in West Bmore!!

NeedaSnowday said...

Balt, Carroll, Frederick, Harford, Howard, Montgomery county schools 2 hour delay!

Westsidehideaway said...

Thx Needasnowday. It’s coming down nicely in West Bmore at 5:44am.

NeedaSnowday said...

Thoughts on possible events ....
Feb 2
Feb 4/5
Feb 8/9

Annndddddyyy!!!

the married guy said...

Been a dud so far, temps seem to creep up when moisture is around. Maybe we'll get nailed in mid. FEB. :-)

the married guy said...

where's the where, when and how? :-)

Mike Cheuvront said...

Strat warm in progress. Colder and stormy pattern towards the later part of the month in to March. It's not over yet.

ravensbbr said...

Good to hear from you, Mike. Hoping it pans out. :)

JoDi said...

Later today . . .?

kebra said...

Any thoughts on Saturday?

Mike Cheuvront said...

Little sneaky snow coming. Don't rule out March yet.

Kyle said...

I'm expecting nothing here for the I-95 crew. Gut feeling says the typical north of the beltway, north of 70 and west of Rt.1 crew will do the best. Even if it does snow down her it wont accumulate on the roads and maybe on the grass. North spots may good some accumulations... Very depressing winter.

Mike Cheuvront said...

March is setting up to be a surprise. Blocking will return and the NAO goes negative. Cold air will be available enough coupled with an active storm jet to bring some March Madness. This event proves you can get a storm even in a relatively warm period. Yes it will warm again afterwards but what I am talking about is towards the end of February into March.

Butch Dynomite said...

I remember people taking about a pretty tangible cut of date for March accumulation. What is the window in yalls estimation? I mean I feel like we frequently get snow in March but mostly on the grass.

Kelly Tucker said...

So completely bummed by this winter...UGH!!!! Where's my snowmageddon?

Mike Cheuvront said...

Conditions will be more favorable the first half of March. Any snow will not stay around long but we could get a storm. It's the winter end game of wild swings. We will trend much cooler. The southeast ridge will be beaten back by blocking up north allowing a trough in the east. The NAO tanks in March. Will it allow for a storm? Y'all know we need lots of things working together to get a storm. Cold air is only one. Sun angle is a factor also this close to winters end.

Mike Cheuvront said...

It's gonna take a miracle folks.

Kyle said...

Yea a hail mary from half field Mike. At this point I'm ready for warm weather and baseball. Even if we get a good storm the snow will melt the next day or so afterwards. Just not our winter for snow. Next winter we are due!!!

NeedaSnowday said...

W.I.N.D.Y

Holy cow... anyone see the National Weather Service special statement this looks pretty scary

Rebecca said...

Now we're getting the nor'easters. Go figure.

Mike Cheuvront said...

I told ya'll on my post above. Conditions would favor last minute action for winter.

Butch Dynomite said...

I am optimistic