Thursday, February 1, 2007


-Commander William Riker, from Star Trek The Next Generation commenting on how Captain Picard, having been recently captured by the Borg, was being forced to attack the Enterprise, but was doing this in a way so as to not harm the crew on the ship.

Okay fine, you thought that was a weird introduction for a weather update. Hey, is it any weirder than waking up this morning to discover "Winter Weather Advisories" plastered all over the place? I thought that as of last night this storm was falling apart? Yeah, whatever. Just look at the National Radar and tell me if that looks like a decaying storm. Oh, you mean the National Weather Service had to quickly reverse course and ramp up the forecast overnight? Well I wonder why that would be. You don't suppose it's because they realized the one computer model run from last night was actually an outlier...and that we knew all along the precip shield would be making it much farther north than the computer were projecting? So I say, "just as you should" because hard data and observations coming in from radar and the ground are proving this storm is producing more moisture over a larger area and sooner than expected. I figured once it got to the coast, influence of the departing high would juice it up and this is what we're seeing.


SCHOOL TODAY: An early dismissal is now less likely due to the atmosphere not being moist enough at the surface to support accumulating snow. The sun will also negate some of the precip in the upper levels. The exception will be southern and western Virginia, which could see icing develop later today.

SCHOOL FRIDAY: Looking at how all the forecasts have come around to the solutions posted earlier, I am still confident that conditions on the ground tomorrow morning throughout the Baltimore Metro area will force schools to close. My general call remains exactly what I told my students Wednesday: All snow west of I-95 and north of Washington, up to 2 inches. A mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain from I-95 south and east across the bay to the Eastern shore. Were this to be just snow falling at 32 degrees, I'd be inclined to say 2-hour delay. If we wake up at 5AM and see a wintery mix still coming down, it is still likely districts will START with a delay and then reevaluate. But since all area schools have not yet seen an inclement weather cancellation this winter, and it's early in a new quarter... and fully one third of Baltimore County will be covered with varying amounts of ice... I think you get my drift.

POINTS NORTH: Mostly snow north from Cecil County to Philly and New York. That stage of the storm I will provide a more point specific forecast tonight, but several inches seems reasonable for you.

For those on the EMAIL update list, I will send a brief update at some point this morning or afternoon, followed by a reality check this evening on how the forecast is panning out.