Tuesday, February 26, 2008

49 comments:
A TRIP TO FANTASYLAND..FOR THOSE GOING SKIING
(IT WILL BE POURING SNOW AT MY 7 SPRINGS SKI TRIP THIS WEEKEND, AND EVEN BETTER...THE FOOT GIRLS WILL BE THERE TO ENJOY IT ALL WITH ME. )
Fantasyland


(No, not that one. I'm talking about the GFS Fantasyland...this one:


GFS FantasyLand


TUE 2-26 10:30 PM. I know it's hard for you ravenous powderhounds not to get excited when you see maps like this. It's similar to how the administration gets teachers to attend faculty meetings on time, they just announce that chocolate is being served to the first 25 people who show up. You've never seen teachers move so fast after a long school day. If they consider chocolate a food group, then people like you reading this site probably consider impossibly fun computer model scenarios sweeter than pure sugar itself. Just a minute, I need to grab my evening dose.


Ok, back now. ::head twitching:: I call this the GFS FantasyLand, because it is just one model run of the US based Global Forecast System from Monday 2/25 showing some crazy scenarios for next week's storms. One idea going forward from here is that it appears increasingly likely something very significant will pound the East Coast the middle of next week. While climate indicators don't seem that promising: The NAO is strongly positive, the PNA fading to near-neutral. This is opposite of the setup we prefer: a negative NAO (trough in the East), a positive PNA (ridge in the West). Regardless, the GFS, European, Canadian, et all are all showing a major major event swinging east by next Tuesday morning that is going to be hard to avoid. Although a lot can and will change over the next 7 days leading up to arrival of this event, it is interesting to note a number of models have continued to show something brewing for the 3/4-5 period now for several days in a row, so we will keep watching.


Yes, I know, the same thing happened in March 2001... for days before, the models projected a massive Day After Tomorrow type blizzard which was going to bury the 95 corridor under 2-3 feet of snow. The hype was galactic in nature, and schools were closed all the way to the Moon. Everything was shut down from Boston to DC, even BEFORE the storm struck. It was my first year of live classroom teaching in science, and I was in Lancaster County, PA at the time. I remember just before going to bed that night, a TV forecaster from Philadelphia showed the entire viewing area under a deep blue shading with 24" - 36" plastered over it. The next morning, I awoke to 2 inches. The storm had shifted east overnight, blasting northern and central New Jersey as well as parts of New England with just some of the crippling snow that had been expected in the cities. It was and still is in the minds of many weatherfolk, the biggest bust in the history of Mid-Atlantic weather forecasting.

Monday, February 25, 2008

9 comments:
WILL SCHOOLS FINALLY GET A FULL WEEK?

TUE 2-26 10:00 PM. At least your week in the Mid-Atlantic started tranquil, with sunshine and seasonable temperatures on Monday. From here it gets interesting, and much colder. On Tuesday, the vigorous cross-country system that impacted western states Sunday arrives on the East Coast with force. By afternoon, heavy windswept rain overspreads the region, with temperatures rising into the 50's on southeast winds. Overnight into Wednesday, a powerful cold front sweeps to the coast and leftover moisture may briefly change to snow before ending. Noticeable sub-freezing temperatures will arrive behind the front, creating pockets of black ice that could cause some school delays Wednesday morning in Baltimore County's Hereford Zone along with some parts of Frederick, Carroll and Harford Counties. Starting Wednesday, the region spends remainder of the week in January-like conditions, with highs in the mid 30's to near 40. The next chance for precipitation looks to be a clipper on Saturday bringing flurries or light snow.


Later this evening, I will post some basic ideas about next week, as it appears there's one or two more chances for snow during the upcoming 10 day period. I did leave some snippets about it in the previous post if you want to go look for them!