Saturday, January 2, 2010

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UNDER CONSTRUCTION!!!!!!!        HAD AN ACCIDENT LAST NIGHT!!!!!                 FORECASTS WILL RESUME SHORTLY!!!1


THANK YOU FOR CHOOSING FOOTS FORECAST FOR ALL OF YOUR WEATHER NEEDS!!!!!!!! 

PAY NO ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST BELOW
COME BACK AND VISIT SHORTLY!!!

~JON OF FOOTS FORECAST
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ALLEGHENY ZONE: 5 DAY (Allegheny Co.)
NWS ADVISORIES: WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
(click link above for details)

TODAY(1/7)--Snow showers early, about 1 inch of accumulation, then turning mostly cloudy.  Snow from a new system moving in to the area by early to late evening. Use caution during evening rush hour.
Highs Pittsburgh 28 I Penn Hills 27 I New Kensington 25 I Coraopolis 26| McKeesport 26|

TONIGHT--Snow.  Accumulations of 2-4 inches by Friday morning.
Lows: Pittsburgh 20 I Penn Hills 18 I New Kensington 17 I Coraopolis 18| McKeesport 19|

FRIDAY--Snow showers continuing, additional accumulation through Saturday morning 2-3 inches. 
Highs Pittsburgh 22 I Penn Hills 21 I New Kensington 21 I Coraopolis 22| McKeesport 22|

SATURDAY--Cold and windy with snow showers in the morning tapering off by late afternoon, accumulations around 1 inch.
Highs Pittsburgh 18 I Penn Hills 17 I New Kensington 17 I Coraopolis 17| McKeesport 17|

SUNDAY--Drying out with a few peaks of sunshine.
Highs Pittsburgh 21 I Penn Hills 19 I New Kensington 18 I Coraopolis 20| McKeesport 21|


 NORTH ZONE: 5 DAY
(Erie, Crawford, Warren McKean,)
(click link above for details)

TODAY(1/7)--Stray showers, about 1 inch of accumulation. Snow from a new system moving in early evening. Use caution during evening rush hour.
Highs Erie 27 I Titusville 25 I  Meadville 26 | Bradford

TONIGHT--Snow. Accumulations 3-6 inches by Friday morning.
Lows Erie 20 I Titusville 18 I Ashtabula 18 I Meadville 17

FRIDAY--Snow, 2-4 inches by Saturday morning.
Highs Erie 22 I Titusville 20 I Ashtabula 20 I Meadville 19

SATURDAY--Snow. Very cold.  Daytime snow accumulations 1-2 inches.
Highs Erie 17 I Titusville 17 I Ashtabula 16 I Meadville 16

SUNDAY--Drying out with sun peaking through.
Highs
Erie 23 I Titusville 22 I Bradford 21 I Meadville 21






INTERSTATE 80 ZONE: 5 DAY
( Clearfield, Jefferson, Venango, Mercer, Clarion, Forest, Cameron, Elk)
NWS ADVISORIES: WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
(click link above for details)

TODAY(1/7)--Snow showers by early afternoon. Daytime accumulations 1-2 inches.  More snow moving in early evening.
Use caution during evening rush hour.
Highs Oil City 26 I Warren 24 I Punxsutawney 26 I Dubois 25 I Clarion 26

TONIGHT--Snow, accumulations 3-6 inches by Friday Morning
Lows Oil City 19 I Warren 19 I Punxsutawney 18 I Dubois 17 I Clarion 17|Emporium |St. Mary's   |   Johnstown
 
FRIDAY--Snow continuing, additional 2-3 inch of accumulation expected by saturday morning.
Highs Oil City 21 I Warren 22 I Punxsutawney 22 I Dubois 21 I Clarion 22     

SATURDAY--light snow showers, very cold. 1-2 inches of snow accumulation.
Highs Oil City 16 I Warren 17 I Punxsutawney 18 I Dubois 17 I Clarion 18    

SUNDAY--Drying Out with a few peaks of sunshine.
Highs Oil City 20 I Warren 20 I Punxsutawney 19 I Dubois 21 I Clarion 21     

MONDAY--Mostly cloudy.
Highs Oil City 27 I Warren 27 I Punxsutawney 26 I Dubois 27 I Clarion 27    
                                                     
EAST ZONE: 5 DAY 
(Lawrence, Beaver, Butler, Washington, Hancock, Columbiana, Jefferson)

TODAY(1/7)--Snow showers early, 1 inch of accumulation expected, then becoming mostly cloudy by the afternoon.  More snow moving in during the early evening hours. Use caution during evening rush hour.
Highs
Steubenville 26 I Weirton 25 I  Youngstown 26 | Ellwood City 25 | New Castle 26 |  Beaver Falls 25 | Aliquippa 26

TONIGHT--Snow showers 2-4 inches of accumulation by Friday morning.
Lows Steubenville 18 I Weirton 19 I  Youngstown 20 |
Ellwood City 19 | New Castle 18 |  Beaver Falls 18 | Aliquippa 19

FRIDAY--Snow continuing, additional 2-3 inch of accumulation expected by Saturday morning.
Highs Steubenville 22 I Weirton 21 I  Youngstown 22 | Ellwood City 22
New Castle 22 |  Beaver Falls 21 | Aliquippa 22

SATURDAY--light snow showers, very cold. 1-2 inches of snow accumulation by Saturday evening.
Highs
Steubenville 17 I Weirton 19 I  Youngstown 19 | Ellwood City 18
New Castle 19 |  Beaver Falls 18 | Aliquippa 17

SUNDAY--Drying out with a few peaks of sunshine.
Highs Steubenville 21 I Weirton 20 I  Youngstown 20 | Ellwood City 20
New Castle 21 |  Beaver Falls 20 | Aliquippa 21

MONDAY--Mostly Cloudy.
Highs Steubenville 27 I Weirton 26 I  Youngstown 27 | Ellwood City 28
New Castle 27 |  Beaver Falls 27 | Aliquippa 27

SOUTH/EAST ZONE: 5 DAY
(Westmoreland, Fayette, Somerset, Garrett, Armstrong, Indiana, Cambria )
 NWS ADVISORIES: WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
(click link above for details)

TODAY(1/7)--Snow showers in the morning, accumulations around 1 inch, then becoming mostly cloudy. Snow moving in during the early evening hours. Use caution during evening rush hour.
Highs Latrobe 25 I Connelsville 26 I Uniontown 24 I Oakland 26| Kittaning  | Ford City |  Emerald City | Ebensburg   | Johnstown

TONIGHT--Snow. 4-8 inches of accumulation by Saturday morning.
Lows Latrobe 18 I Connelsville 18 I Uniontown 19 I Oakland 20 
 
FRIDAY--Snow continuing, additional 3-6 inches of accumulation.
Highs Latrobe 22 I Connelsville 22 I Uniontown 23 I Oakland 22
 
SATURDAY--snow showers, very cold. 1-2 inches of snow accumulation by Saturday evening.
Highs Latrobe 16 I Connelsville 17 I Uniontown 18 I Oakland 20

SUNDAY--Drying out with a few peaks of sunshine.
Highs Latrobe 22 I Connelsville 23 I Uniontown 23 I Oakland 26

MONDAY--Mostly Cloudy.
Highs
Latrobe 28 I Connelsville 29 I Uniontown 28 I Oakland 31

SOUTHEAST ZONE: 5 DAY
(Brooke, Ohio, Marshall, Greene)
NWS ADVISORIES: WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
(click link above for details)

TODAY(1/7)--Snow showers ending by early afternoon, 1 inch of accumulation, then remaining mostly cloudy.  Snow moving in during the early evening hours.  Use caution during the evening Rush hour.
Highs Wheeling 26 I Mandsville 25  

TONIGHT--Snow.  Snow accumulating 3-6 inches by Friday morning.
Lows Wheeling  19 I Mandsville 19

FRIDAY--Snow continuing. 2-4 inches of additional snow by evening.
Highs Wheeling 22 I Mandsville 22

SATURDAY--snow showers, very cold. 1-2 inches of snow accumulation by Saturday evening.
Highs Wheeling 17 I Mandsville 16

SUNDAY--Drying out with a few peaks of sunshine. Cold
High Wheeling 23 I Mandsville 22 

MONDAY--Mostly Cloudy
High Wheeling 29 I Mandsville 27

WEST ZONE: 5 DAY
(Armstrong, Indiana, Cambria)
NWS ADVISORIES WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
(click link above for details)

TODAY--Snow Showers early, 1 inch of accumulation expected, then remaining mostly cloudy.  More snow moving in by early evening. Use caution during evening rush hour.
Highs Ford City 24 I Kittaning 24 I Ebensburg 23 I Johnstown 23

TONIGHT--Snow.  4-8 inches of snow accumulation by Friday morning.
Lows Ford City 19 I Kittaning 18 I Ebensburg 19 I Johnstown 19

FRIDAY--Snow continuing, additional 3-6 inches of snow expected.
Highs Ford City 22 I Kittaning 22 I Ebensburg 20 I Johnstown 21

SATURDAY--snow showers, very cold. 1-2 inches of snow accumulation by Saturday evening.
Highs Ford City 19 I Kittaning 18 I Ebensburg 17 I Johnstown 17

SUNDAY--Drying out with a few peaks of sunshine.
Highs Ford City 24 I Kittaning 24 I Ebensburg 25 I Johnstown 24

MONDAY--Mostly Cloudy
Highs Ford City 27 I Kittaning 28 I Ebensburg 26 I Johnstown 27
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THE HAPPY FRIDAY JAN 8 STORM
Forecast Team & Storm Grade Report:
Mr. Foot, Winterman, PasadenaMatt, Poochieweather, Mr. RK

FINAL REPORT SUNDAY 1.10.10 

Thank you for your patience as the team just concluded an extensive analysis of the situation. Our results will be posted in segments below-- refresh several times in the next 15 minutes. This update pertains to Maryland from Harford County to Anne Arundel County to Western MD, including the WV Panhandle and Northern Virginia.

UPDATED SNOW TIMELINE
ARRIVAL By 11 PM Thursday night 1/7  (from 1/6)
ACTUAL 9:30 - 10:00 PM
DURATION
11 PM to 5 AM: Periods of light to moderate snow
5 AM to 7 AM: A brief lull caused by dry slot
7 AM to 9 AM: Second band of moderate to briefly heavy snow develops along coastal portions of Bay-area counties and along I-95 northward to Cecil County, MD.
By 9 AM: Snow quickly tapers to scattered flurries until 1 PM.

Note: Northern VA and West Virginia panhandle will see an earlier stop time, and may not be impacted by the coastal deformation bands expected to develop. However as NWS advisories indicate, those areas should receive amounts at or higher than the 4" baseline due to a longer period of time when accumulating snow was falling. These regions received an earlier start time (this evening) and will be followed by an earlier end time.

STORM GRADE AMOUNTS
As reported by Forecast Team and BCPS Crossroads Students
1 - Washington DC (Dulles Airport)
2 - BWI Thurgood Marshall Airport & Philadelphia airport
3 - Along a line from Frederick-Westminster-Towson-Belair
4 - PA/MD line to southern Pennsylvania
5 - Pittsburgh, PA ; Martinsburg, WV ; Loudon County, VA
6 - Hagerstown, MD to Garrett County, MD

Indications NWS Winter Advisories extend to central Mississippi


Snow has arrived across the Mid-Atlantic as of 10:00 PM. Short-waves embedded in the flow at 5,000 feet and higher will activate mid-level moisture transported northeast from the Gulf. This is highly evident from current radar, and we may be facing an "over-performing" event.

TEAM ANALYSIS
Wednesday evening, our team of MD high school students and PA college students investigated the upper level data from NOAA's 7pm Barotrophic Map for 850 millibars (5,000 feet): We learned that...

1. There were several upper level lows across the "ArkLoTex" becoming entrained with the shortwave coming from the midwest.
2. We calculated the shortwave locations as of 7pm last night, and projected their movement forward based on wind barb ticks showing a general 25 mph speed.
3. There are more embedded shortwaves and lows than other forecasters are anticipating. The computer models cannot detect each wave in the flow.
4. We calculated a total duration of 22 hours between arrival of first shortwave ridge along Blue Ridge at approximately 7pm tonight and departure of final shortwave by 1 pm Friday as it crosses the DelMarva.
5. Based on dewpoint depression data from the Mid-south, it appears available moisture is much higher. We believe liquid amounts will exceed .25" and snow ratios will range from 15:1 to 17:1. This suggests a total snowfall greater than 4"
This analysis was conducted using core atmospheric data from NOAA, not computer models and applying basic concepts of waves and the physics of flow.

HYPOTHESIS Based on entrainment of more Gulf moisture and more widespread influence of shortwaves moving over this precip shield, the team believes Forecaster Winterman's call of a widespread 4 to 6" is spot on. We shall issue a storm grade amount for the BWI Thurgood Marshall Airport this evening. That number will remain set for verification and cannot be changed. We have thrown down the gauntlet. We challenge other Mid-Atlantic forecasters to run the data and re-examine their conclusions. As we say in education, "the data do not lie."  This forecast is a product of the Maryland and Pennsylvania educational systems: You taught them, now they're teaching us.

IS THERE A "BUST ZONE?"  Absolutely! Any credible scientist would remind us there is a 50% or greater probabililty any hypothesis is or will be wrong. We can hear fellow forecasters saying: "Did you account for the dry slot potential if the waves separate?"  We'll examine that thoroughly tonight, just to cover all bases.

IMPACTS This event will produce accumulating snowfall across the Mid-Atlantic and along the I-95 corridor including Baltimore, Washington and Philadelphia. It is highly probable many school systems affected by this snowfall may be delayed or closed. Snow will be falling at the crucial decision time of 4 to 5 AM. Were a large school system to announce a delay at 5:00 AM, there is only a 2 hour window delay during which a re-examination of conditions can occur.

The 850 mb data clearly shows that by 7 am on Friday, the final shortwave trough that was over Mississippi at 7pm Wednesday will not have cleared the Mid-Atlantic before 7am Friday. We expect a second, heavier band of snow to develop between 7 and 9 AM before the shortwave trough moves through.

You may draw your own conclusions on what this means. This evening, the team will use core stand-alone moisture data to determine the liquid equivalent, final snow ratio and a "Storm Grade Amount" for BWI Thurgood Marshall Airport. A number of other verifiable locations across the Mid-Atlantic will be included. We will also show a cross-comparison between our numbers and other weather media providers. If our results are not met, we will be the first to admit error and tell you why. Until then, enjoy the snow!

Thursday, December 31, 2009

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"I think we're in trouble..."
- Lyrics to a 70's song whose title escapes me just now

6:00 AM Thursday, 12-31-09On this last day of the decade's final year, our weather decided to have one more round for Auld Lang Syne. As you can tell by looking out the window, snowfall is heavier than NWS anticipated. The forecast team is raising it's totals accordingly. Latest NWS advisories : Baltimore | Philadelphia

I-95 Corridor: Up to 3" possible by noon before changeover to rain.
Towson, MD north and west: 4" + before a mid-afternoon change.
Central/Southern PA: Up to 5" possible then sleet mixes in PM.

Please post your location in the comments with your observations, and the forecast team will respond as time permits. A second update posted by noon today.

Collaborators: Mr. Foot, PasadenaMatt, Winterman, Mr. B, Andy.