Tuesday, September 6, 2011

1 comment:
If wishes were horses

3:30 PM EDT 9/6/2011 | Even though many places in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast were able to squeeze in a sunny Labor Day Weekend, there will be a lot of wishing that the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee will gallop away like a horse... and not stall along a stationary front. The bullseye of heavy rain from this system has been progged for west central Pennsylvania by NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center for several days now. Flood Watches cover most of Pennsylvania, from Harrisburg to State College to Pittsburgh, and keep plenty busy our Three Rivers and Central PA Forecast Teams. 

OUR PENNSYLVANIA TEAMS: If you are heading that way for travel in this tropical downpour Tuesday, please visit and like these forecast pages in facebook to stay better informed of what is ahead on your trip: The Three Rivers Team, led by Forecaster Greg Jackson at the California University of Pennsylvania, and the Penn State Team led by Forecasters Dakota Smith and Patrick Ritsko in State College, PA. 

BAD WEATHER GOT YOU DOWN? Head on out to the sunny shores of Southeast Wisconsin! The U.S. Team of Foot's Forecast is charged up to announce our newest forecast zone, led by Forecaster Robert P. of Sheboygan County. Robert is a summer 2011 NOAA/NCAS Weather Camp graduate of the Howard University program and joins a fine crop of grads who have already dove head first like he did with their forecast zones. Please visit and like the page or spread the word to family, friends and colleagues which reside in the Metro Milwaukee area...that Foot's Forecast has come to town!

Sunday, September 4, 2011

1 comment:
No rain on some parades...
but not so elsewhere

TROPICS: Visit the Tropical Zone for latest reports on Katia and Lee
SOUTHEAST: Forecasters in MississippiSouthern GeorgiaMetro Atlanta | Tennessee
SEVERE: Visit and like our Southeast Severe Weather page for fast updates, and our Affiliate/Regional forecasters at tempestchasing.com in Nashville, TN
MID-ATLANTIC: Team reports from Charlotte NC; Cape Fear NC, The Virginia Tidewater, West Virginia, Maryland's eastern shore, the Capital Region, Central Maryland and our Affiliate/Regional forecaster at the Maryland Weather Center.

8:00 AM EDT 9/4/2011 Our forecasters in Crisfield, Maryland reported wonderful blue skies and delightful southerly breezes (Youtube) for the 64th annual National Hard Crab Derby on Saturday. Despite a bungled up City Dock caused by Irene's unwelcome visit, and an earthquake shakin' to accompany crab cake bakin' last week, "the Derby" as locals call it bounced right back in fine Eastern shore style. Folks from this Bay-facing town on the Delmarva peninsula have many a story to tell about infamous storms of yesteryear. The raking from 1954's Hurricane Hazel and the inland flooding of 2003's Isabel "ranks up there" in the minds of many old-timers alongside the 1962 Ash Wednesday Storm and the Chesapeake-Potomac Hurricane of 1933.

Folks in this rural but dynamic part of the Maryland Eastern shore, while pickin' crabs, can tell a story like a Ken Burns PBS documentary. Those I talked with in the shade at the Crab Derby parade sounded a familiar theme: "It used to be we had a bad gale in these parts about every 5-10 years or so. Seems like lately they just keep a-comin." Disclaimer: "Lately" may refer to a 30-year interval if the interviewee talks about Roosevelt as if he was the last President. Maybe it is just perception, or perhaps they are on to something. (Inset: The long time tradition of a crab-picking contest at the Derby)

The possible interaction of Tropical Storms Lee and Katia later this week lend evidence to what the crab-pickers of Crisfield perceive. Our Severe Weather and Tropical Teams alike have significant concerns about the increasing proximity of Lee and Katia in the Wednesday-Friday time period. Moisture propagating northeastward from Lee, and driven east by an approaching cold front could collide with western streaming energy and moisture from Katia. Neither system has an effective escape route at present, and the avenues seem to be closing. The least desirable scenario may be the most plausible one: Moisture from both systems converges to deliver 6-10" of rain Wednesday to Friday in places which are still reeling from the impacts of Irene.

OUR BEST ADVICE? If you lost power or had downed trees from Irene, we cannot rule out those problem recurring from the remnants of Lee. Weakened tree root systems from recent heavy rains will be compounded by another dose of torrential rainfall Wed through Fri. If your basement or property is prone to flooding in even a thunderstorm, we urge you to take necessary precautions or expedite your cleanup by Wednesday.

Friday, September 2, 2011


"Raining on the parade"
would be an understatement

5:45 PM EDT 9/2/11 | TORNADO & FLOOD THREAT THIS WEEKEND | In addition to the high rainfall amounts expected this weekend from Tropical Storm Lee, our Southeast Team believes there is an increasing risk of a tornado outbreak to the right of where Lee makes landfall. These areas would include southern Mississippi, central/southern Alabama and central/southern Georgia. The NOAA Storm Prediction Center has posted a slight risk of tornadoes. One factor which would spawn a tornado outbreak is a possible swift instruction of dry air in the left quadrants of the storm. That would drive a large area of energy rapidly northeast and the resulting shear and instability could spawn a "short notice" outbreak of tornadoes. For details on the resurgence of Hurricane Katia, please visit the Tropical Zone on facebook for our latest reporting.

LIVE VIDEO STREAMING Storm Chaser/Forecaster Vince Webb, in classic fashion, is already en route to intercept Lee's impacts on the Gulf coast. He will be posting video as time permits in the Tropical Zone. Here is his first short video from earlier today. You can also see his reports via live video streaming at msstormchasing.com or this direct link.

11:35 PM EDT 9/1/11 | FLOOD THREAT FOR THE GULF COAST | In a surprise manuver, when most concerns were focusing on the long term potential of Tropical Storm Katia, Tropical Depression # 13 pops along the central Gulf coast. For New Orleans, a slow moving tropical storm dropping 10-20 inches of rain is almost as high impact as a fast-moving major hurricane. Although the upgraded New Orleans pumping and levee system was designed to withstand a 100-year flood... can it handle thirteen inches of rain? That is beyond unlucky, and could even be catastrophic. The Times-Picayune and the NOLA National Weather Service are already on to this possibility, as shown above in the 72-hour rainfall projection.

Our multi-state team keeps constant watch over and posts on the latest developments and statements from the National Hurricane Center, computer model guidance and Air Force Reconnaissance. Our members have even flown IN a hurricane hunter aircraft mission**, so they know what they are talking about. Visit the Tropical Zone in facebook for round-the-clock coverage from a dedicated team of 10 forecasters who stayed on the task even as Irene took out their power and evacuated their counties.

No Rain On The 64th Annual Crisfield Hard Crab Derby Parade

*The team extents its gratitude to Media Advisor and Forecaster Nick Scirico of North Carolina State University for his excellent work in developing our branded logos for Hurricane Irene and the newest banner style featured on this page.
**Meteorologist Randall Hergert is a graduate of Florida International University and has flown in NOAA/Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft. He is also the Lead Forecaster of our South Florida & The Keys zone in facebook.

(Lead Advisor Mr. Foot and the Tropical Team)