Friday, November 11, 2011

No comments:
Team remembrance of Veterans Day
by Lead Forecaster Greg Jackson, 
Three Rivers Team of Southwest Pennsylvania

Fusion Forecasting Avatar
by Nick Scirico, NC State University
9:30 PM EST 11/11/11  Greetings everyone, we hope this was a good Veterans Day Friday for you. On days like today weather is an important part of our lives, but also is the least important. Today is a day to honor and remember those who have given their lives and service for our freedom we have today. 

We honor them by attending parades, visiting a burial site of a fallen veteran, or paying tribute in the calmness of our hearts. Students on our team will or already have honored our veterans by participating in school sponsored events. 

In Washington State, Mark Ingalls, our Lead Forecaster for the Pacific Northwest in Washington State attended an assembly Thursday in honor of our fallen heroes. In Georgia, Daniel Ross, our Southeast Team Director from the Metro Atlanta area, attended a Georgia Institute of Technology football game Thursday night for honoring a returning soldiers from Iraq, who saw his  family for the first time since arriving. Former Georgia Institute of Technology players were also acknowledged for their service to our country. 


In Maryland Mike Natoli, Lead Forecaster from the Bayshore Region and the Central Maryland Team, will be marching with his fellow marching band classmates in a Veterans Day parade held in Harford County. 

In Pennsylvania, Forecasters Matt Balash and Greg Jackson, of the Three Rivers Team will hear the roll call, at California University of PA, of more than 6,000 names of the service members who have served and fallen in the wars of both Iraq and Afghanistan. 

Many schools and colleges across the nation will participate in this roll call and observe a minute of silence at 2 pm Eastern Time. We encourage you to take a moment and remember in your own way the sacrifices  of many whom have gone before to make our country the "land of the Free and the home of the Brave."




About the Author: 
Greg "Winterman" Jackson is a freshman at California University of Pennsylvania majoring in Environmental Science. Greg has earned the title of Lead Forecaster on our team for a long record of innovative leadership extending back to his high school days at North Carroll High in Carroll County, MD. Greg was among the first high school students to join Foot's Forecast in December 2009, and is the student responsible for the one sentence which launched the facebook revolution on our team, and may possibly have influenced the National Weather Service to initiate Facebook pages. Greg led the charge to write this article about how our team is honoring Veterans Day.  



Thursday, November 10, 2011

No comments:
About that Alaska storm...


12:15 PM EST 11/10/11 HISTORIC ALASKA STORM TO IMPACT LONG RANGE PATTERNS? While many in the Meteorological community know the Gulf of Alaska is a breeding ground for major coastal storms, few people alive today can remember a time when hurricane-force driven snow struck our northernmost state with such ferocity.  Our team has posted   on the subject today because we were searching for a reasonable scientific overview from others on why this storm occurred. We wanted to provide a basis for answering two core questions we know many of our readers (and our own members)  might be asking:
  1. WHAT caused the Alaska storm to be so extreme?
  2. WHEN is the next major event? 
  3. HOW could this storm affect the winter pattern?
SYNOPSIS: Our Winter Stormcast and Long Range Teams believe the Alaska storm is another step in the "early Winter" pattern which has been evolving in the U.S. since Hurricane Irene. We anticipate a continuation of the severity and frequency of "billion dollar"  high impact events in the U.S. for the winter ahead. In 2011, fourteen events have caused over  $1 billion in reported damages,  per event.  We project the next significant to major snow event in the Eastern U.S. for the November 25 to December 5 time period. This event, if snowfall may resemble the outcome of the October 29-30, 2011 storm.  

What caused the Alaska storm to be so extreme?
OUR SHORT ANSWER: The November 2011 Alaskan Blizzard could have resulted from long term changes in the Nino-Nina pattern, as well as above normal sea surface temperatures. 
Our early hypothesis is centered on the possible global "unraveling" of energy changes in the atmosphere due to wild swings in the El Nino-La Nina pattern since Fall 2009. We combine that possible instability in the overall upper level flow with the observation that sea surface temperatures in Polar regions have been warming at a much faster rate than most other regions of the world. 
NOAA visible imagery of the blizzard
approaching Alaska on 11/8/11
Rationale: A customizable NOAA animation of how Global Sea Surface Temperatures have changed just from November 2010 to November 2011. The NOAA Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomaly map shown above indicates the area over which the Gulf of Alaska storm formed, prior to being designated a "blizzard," has reported SST's between 1.5 and 3.5 degrees Celsius above normal. That area of water, currently ranging in the low 50's F, would be considered relatively "cold" by most people.  However, the SST charts show the surface water temps in that region are running at least  2.7 to 6.3 degrees F above normal. Not a big difference? If you were able to bask in 70 F degree water at Ocean City, MD on Halloween, we think you would notice the water was not the normal 59-65 degree range expected that time of year.
A scientist's view: We offer this excerpt from an 11/08/11 article in Our Amazing Planet, in which Meteorologist Jim Brader from the NWS Fairbanks, AK Office stated, 
"Something that's kind of unusual in this case is that all of our computer models were in agreement of this being an extremely strong storm." 
The storm is the product of warm air in the Pacific Ocean tapping into the cold air off Siberia, picking up speed in a jet stream near there and then intensifying as it moved into the Bering Sea  –  "a place where storms typically intensify," Brader told OurAmazingPlanet.
The weird storm has an unusually long fetch length, which is the length of the wind blowing in a single direction over water. In this case it's maybe 1,000 miles (1,600 km), Brader said.

When is the next major event? 
OUR SHORT ANSWER: The Winter Stormcast and Long Range Teams still anticipate significant winter weather in the Eastern United States between November 25 and December 5. We follow the NWS definition of a significant snow as producing 4 or more inches
For comparison: Our team's criteria for a storm to be a "significant event" for the snowfall amount and resulting disruption to affect at least one metropolitan area. Although NOAA's Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS) only ranks the October 29-30 event as a 1.75, it was - and remains an extremely disruptive to tens of millions. As of November 10, 2011 - thousands in New England remain without power due to a storm over 10 days prior. Our internal criteria points to the fact that a large portion of the Northeast U.S. received 4 or more inches of snow, which identifies the storm as having significant potential that falls just under NWS Winter Storm Watch criteria of 5 inches. 
For the record: We believe the next snow event to affect the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast  will produce a similar impact and accumulations as the October 29-30 storm.  

How could this storm affect the winter pattern? 
NOAA: Hurricane Irene
August 27, 2011
OUR SHORT ANSWER: We are not surprised to see this storm pattern evolving, as the Alaskan Blizzard is the second strong event of its kind this fall in the Northeast Pacific. We hypothesize a connection in the storm pattern moving forward from the atmospheric influences produced by Hurricane Irene. As such, we believe the East coast will be targeted again within 30 days following the sequence we outlined both in our October 1, 2011 post and our October 22, 2011 post 

RATIONALE: We believe the atmosphere has been dropping many clues to the pattern ahead. Consider this sequence of events from August 2011 forward: 
  • Late Aug: Hurricane Irene batters East coast
  • Early Sep: "Atmospheric rivers" over the Northeast U.S. tap remnants of Tropical Storm Lee, producing widespread flash floods in areas affected by Irene. 
  • Mid-late Sep: Calm period in the East, stormy in the West.
  • Early Oct: Strongest storm since 2004 strikes Pacific Northwest.
  • Mid Oct: Calm period for much of the country.
  • Late Oct: Historic early season snowstorm in the Northeast U.S.
  • Early Nov: Major snow in Colorado, historic Alaska Blizzard
PROJECTIONS: Based on our expectation of a possible 30-45 day pattern in recent major events across North America, we anticipate the following sequence going forward:
  • Mid Nov: "Indian Summer" warmup in the East, increased storminess in the West
  • Late Nov: Significant West to East storm with a strong cold front reaching the East Coast by Thanksgiving Weekend.
  • Early Dec: Pulses of cold air from the Ohio Valley to the Northeast, resulting in the next significant snow event for this region by December 5. 
  • January: May end up relatively calm and mild for the U.S., similar to January 1990.
If this all plays out, Mother Nature will have given us fair warning. Perhaps hanging the holiday lights early while it is still pleasant might save you the hassle of dealing with in after things turn nasty again...because we believe it is only a matter of time before we all "go into the zone" ahead of the next storm.

(Forecaster Foot, the Winter Stormcast and Long Range Teams)

Tuesday, November 8, 2011

No comments:
Is it, or isn't it?

8:05 AM EST 11/9/11 As reported by Forecaster Jason in our Tropical Zone page on facebook, the 2 PM Tuesday advisory from the National Hurricane Center has redesignated once "Sub-Tropical Storm Sean" into a full tropical system. Since forming earlier today, Sean has transitioned from a subtropical cyclone to one with tropical characteristics, including increased deep convection as shown by  the "clouds blobs" in the right front quadrant. View the latest NOAA visible and enhanced satellite imagery loops

Although near-shore Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect along the Carolina and Virginia coast, primary hazards will be to shipping and cruiseline lanes. For now, Sean ISN'T expected to impact the U.S., save for some rip currents to develop along the Carolina coast in the next 24-48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are still at 45 mph with minimum central pressure of 1002 mb. This storm may strengthen slightly over the next couple days, and as a precaution, the government of Bermuda has hoisted a Tropical Storm Watch for the island. 

Now for something completely different...yet similar. 
Meet "Rolf" the hybrid tropical cyclone.  

We direct you to this link by Dr. Jeff Masters of The Weather Underground for a thought-provoking report on a cyclone which ALSO developed tropical characteristics...in the Mediterranean Sea! Though not a common occurrence due to overall sea surface temperatures below 80 F, tropical storms have formed in the Mediterranean. It IS presenting the classic spiraling signature of a developing cyclone. NOAA's Satellite and Information Service (NESDIS) and the U.S. Navy have designated it 99L and have classified it as a tropical disturbance, based on wind estimates of 40-45 mph. (Forecasters Jason M. and Mr. Foot)


Monday, November 7, 2011

No comments:
The National Stormcast Page

Snow out West...

Dry Down South...

Coasts and Great Lakes a Little Rough...

Snow in Hawaii...


Saturday 12 November- 9:30 AM EST (0930 EST)


11/12 WILDFIRE UPDATES

West Texas- 39K+ acres

.

10 States with D3 (extreme) and/or D4 (exceptional) drought conditions

.

11/11 Red Flag Warnings-

New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Florida, Alabama, Georgia

.

Tropical Page

No Activity


WINTERWATCH


11/12 Frost/Freeze Statements

.


11/12 WINTER WEATHER STATEMENTS:

Washington, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Utah, Wyoming

none

.

Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Utah, Colorado, Hawaii

.


Please consult your local NWS office, FF Facebook page, or back here later for timely information.

Advisor Lear




Rough Day at The Beach..anywhere
Wednesday 9 November- 8:50 AM EST (0850 EST)
No reports for 12 hours

13 States with D3 (extreme) and/or D4 (exceptional) drought conditions

11/9 Frost/Freeze Statements
California
.
California, Oklahoma, Texas
.

11/9 WINTER WEATHER STATEMENTS:
Wisonsin, UP Michigan
UP Michigan, Wisconsin
.
Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, UP Michigan
.
. Tropical Page
TS Sean

Please consult your local NWS office, FF Facebook page, or back here later for timely information.
Advisor Lear

Thursday, November 3, 2011

No comments:
Innovate your future 
by forecasting the weather

Forecaster Megan M. from
our Northern Virginia Team
6:00 PM EDT 11/3/2011 | TO OUR READERS IN HIGH SCHOOL: With the first marking period over and the weather calm, now would be a great time to consider applying to join our team. Our student members range from field hockey players and  hurricane research interns to snowboarders and geocachers. We're in 17 states, but it would be swell to have fresh forecasters from other sweet spots around the U.S. A few places needing student forecasters include L.A., Seattle, Denver, Dallas, New Orleans, the Midwest, the Southeast and New England. You live there, you know the local weather...you've always had a passion about tells others about it. Well, your ship just came in. 

What's in it for you...
  • Participate in rousing forecast collaborations in Facebook during major events, and help forecasters cover zones reaching thousands of readers;
  • Connect with a team of 50 forecasters across the U.S. who have similar interests and passions for science, media and weather;
  • Interact with Meteorologists, scientists and college students at 8 universities in a mosaic of professions.
  • Advance your competitiveness for college or the workforce, especially if you are a high school junior looking for an edge in the application process.
411 on the Team
What if I'm outside the U.S.? 
Forecaster Mark Ingalls from our
Pacific Northwest Team
Since weather is a constant of our daily lives worldwide, we welcome enthusiastic forecasters from wherever you are located. Parents working overseas? We can setup a forecast zone in your location (with their permission).  Whether you are in Sydney or Singapore, London or Lima, there are folks on Facebook who need a quality local weather forecast from a team they can trust. Contact our International Outreach Coordinator, Mark Ingalls for more information: weather.ingalls AT gmail.com  


By the Advisory Team of Foot's  Forecast, as listed on our Vision & Mission Statement. 

Wednesday, November 2, 2011

1 comment:
Now you can say, 
"Next month is December."

North America snowcover 10/30/11
10:30 PM EDT 11/2/11 | While the East is drenched in welcome sunshine after a historically rare October snowstorm, a Blizzard was raging in central and eastern Colorado. For a local view on the storm, you can visit our Central Colorado Zone in facebook. For a comparison of these two events and a look back on the rarity of the Northeast storm, please visit this Examiner.com article by Meteorologist and Team Advisor Mike Mogil. Our Long Range Team, in examining this apparent "yo-yo" pattern, believes that North America seems caught in a repeating 30- to 45-day cycle of high impact events. Each event, whether in along the West coast, the Plains or the East, has been preceded by or followed by a long-duration high pressure ridge. While Meteorologists and Forecasters alike might say, "Yeah, that's usually how it works... Low pressure, then High pressure, and so on," our point is different. What appears missing from the long range pattern is "zonal flow" during which the atmospheric flow over the U.S. becomes overwhelmed with a west-to-east flow of warm Pacific air. 

Instead,  we  believe the weather pattern, going back to Irene for the short term, and perhaps back to December 2009 in the long term, has fallen victim to an increasingly amplified "long wave" pattern book-ended by major, high impact events.  The current storm is expected to work its way east in the next several days, and bring heavy rain to the Midwest as shown in the enclosed NWS /HPC precipitation projection.  Arrival of  this storm on the East coast by late in the weekend may not cause much beyond heavy rain in the Carolinas, but in its wake will be another storm to take aim on the Northern Plains. The combination of these two events could be the next step toward mid-month warmup in the Eastern U.S., and another dramatic cool down in the West. Why is this significant? Were that to play out, it might allow the overall weather pattern for several weeks to "re-organize" so as to deliver a cold blast inthe East just in time for Thanksgiving Weekend. It happened in 1989, perhaps 2011 is the sequel?

ORIGINS OF OUR IDEAS? Take a look at our 9/30/2011 post titled "HellooOctober!" and a followup report on 10/22/11 titled "Wet Halloween...White Thanksgiving."  The bottom line projection from our Long Range Team targets the next significant rain- and snowstorm for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast to occur in the period from November 25 to December 5.  If La Nina and the Arctic Oscillation had anything to say, the quote could be, "Not so sure about that 'Black Friday' idea you all have planned. You might end up with some other color.


(Forecasters Foot, Nic R. and Jason Mitchell of the Long Range Team)

Saturday, October 29, 2011

15 comments:
"Damaging Heavy Wet Snow" 
-National Weather Service, Taunton MA

I-95 CORRIDOR FROM NORTHERN NJ TO BOSTON 
FACING A CRIPPLING EARLY SEASON STORM 


6:00 PM EDT 10/29/11 This report is reposted from our Northeast Winter Stormcast Zone on facebook, prepared by Forecasters Jason M., Mike N., Connor M., and Advisor Foot. A State of Emergency for New Jersey was recently announced by Governor Christie for up to 500,000 power outages across the state, and nearly 1.7 million so far fort the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern U.S.

The surface low pressure responsible for delivering a record-breaking October snowstorm to much of eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey is currently located just off the Delmarva coast.  The storm has received a high energy injection of tropical moisture from the remnants of once-Hurricane Rina. As a result, we expect snowfall amounts to be significantly higher across New England than were originally forecasted. 

The current extent of NWS warnings at:http://www.erh.noaa.gov/


HIGH WIND WARNINGS & POWER OUTAGES
This classic nor’easter has deepened quickly, and has formed an “eye” off the coast. Only a handful of nor’easters have developed an eye off the coast. The NWS is aware of this rapid strengthening and has posted a hurricane force wind warning for just offshore the New England Coast. NWS Taunton, MA: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/box/. Area outside of this may see gust up to 50 mph following passage of the storm tonight, which will add to the widespread power outages already reported in New Jersey, with up to a third of the state without power presently. 


METRO NYC UPDATE
Forecaster Mike Natoli has the latest Metro NYC forecast posted at: http://www.facebook.com/ffmetronewyork 



LOCAL REPORT FROM NJ: We have just spoken with one of our Maryland colleagues in Emergency Management visiting in NJ. They report power outages throughout the area, over 6 inches near Bloomfield, NJ with heavy snow in progress and trees overloaded with snow. With winds forecasted by the NWS to gust near 50 mph tonight throughout NJ, NY and southern New England, this region is facing a significantly damaging event which could rival the power outage impacts of Irene.

FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS, please visit our Winter Stormcast Northeast page in facebook.

Friday, October 28, 2011

103 comments:
A trick for some, a treat for others

11:00 AM EDT 10/29/11 | FINAL STORM GRADE FORECAST AMOUNTS 
The image below contains our final storm projections for this event. Once all Local Storm Reports have been submitted to the respective NWS office, we a member of our team outside the Mid-Atlantic will conduct an independent verification of our results and grade the storm, based on the departure between predicted and actual.  



INTERACT WITH YOUR LOCAL TEAM IN FACEBOOK
If you want to take part in recording this historic event, you are welcome to post imagery and observations in the comment feature on this page, or to your local team in facebook as linked below. Many readers in Maryland and Virginia are already reporting snow on secondary roads, cars and grassy surfaces.



WINTER STORMCAST ZONES Mid-Atlantic | Northeast 
VIRGINIA Central | Northern | Tidewater
WEST VIRGINIA Potomac Ridge & Valley 
MARYLAND   Capital Region | Central |  Northern Bayshore 
PENNSYLVANIA   Southeast | Central | Three Rivers
NEW YORK  Central NY State | New York Metro


8:50 AM EDT 10/29/11 A SIGHT YOU'VE NEVER SEEN The image above from the NWS Eastern Regional Headquarters depicts the current extent of Winter Storm Warnings and related Winter advisories along the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. If this were December or after, we would all be saying, "well after all it is December you know." In October 2009 an early season snow brought up to six inches in State College, PA along with the subsequent power outages. It led to a post we titled "December in October?" That event gave our team an indication of what the winter would bring: Unexpected high impact events generated by a resurgent El Nino


Mr. Foot, Devon PA, Oct 1972
Now we are faced with a new wild card: A La Nina pattern producing a significant winter storm occuring very far outside the climatological norm. The only comparison we could find was back to October 1972 for so much snow this early. Thanks to Mr. Foot's Mother, we were able to dig up photo proof of the last time there was measurable snow at this time of year: October 18 and 19, 1972 as reported by Pennsylvania  Lehigh Valley's Morning Call in this article. Like Charleton Heston said in his gravelly voice at the opening of the 1998 film Armageddon, "It happened before, it will happen again. It's just a question of... when." 


             Winter Stormcast Zone returns


12:10 AM EDT 10/29/11 | WELCOME BACK TO THE WINTER STORMCAST ZONE. In advance of this significant early season storm, we have relaunched the most popular zone on this page from the previous two winters, found at this link. For those in schools or at work and unable to access facebook during the business day, this new tab will provide you with a wide-angle heads up on the next storm, as posted on the regional facebook page. 


6:15 PM EDT 10/28/11 | STORM UPDATE & ANALYSIS | While once-strong Hurricane Rina has drifted into weak Tropical Depression status, her parting gift may be an injection of moisture into the expected Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. snowstorm. We have conducted extensive analysis of the situation throughout the day and are very concerned about several key  issues:


* POWER OUTAGES: While 8 or more inches may fall in places like Lancaster or Harrisburg in PA, and Westminster, Frederick MD-- perhaps just 4 inches will reach the ground due to the sun evaporating away the snow as it falls. However those 4 inches might actually contain 1 full inch of water. The weight of this water-laden snow on full foliage may produce extremely disruptive and complicated outages.


*DYNAMICAL COOLING: We are observing evidence that a high pressure system in Canada is starting to orient in the classic, but troubling "sweet spot" of southern Ontario. At 1025 mb, the cold air within this High is likely to be tapped by the developing ~1000mb low. The interaction of these two opposing pressure systems over a relatively small geographical area (the eastern mid Atlantic) could easily produce strong upward motion and in turn, dynamical cooling. This has the effect of allowing the storm to generate additional cold air, feeding on the decreasing temperatures as snow falls, and squeezing more snow out of the same amount of atmospheric moisture.  


*HEAVY SNOW BANDS: We believe some areas of central Maryland, central Virginia and central Pennsylvania may experience extremely high snowfall rates in a short period of time which could eclipse current NWS projections for those areas, especially if the snow becomes convective in nature as suggested by modeled data from the North American Mesoscale.


(Advisors Mr. Foot and Dr. Winstead, Forecasters Jason M., and Greg J.)


11:30 AM EDT 10/28/11 | SIGNIFICANT EARLY SEASON SNOWSTORM | The Snowfall Probability Graphic below is derived from the NOAA Winter Weather Product Suite as posted by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction in Camp Springs, MD. Many members of our team have visited this facility and interacted with their meteorologists. 

We have respect for their professional eye on winter weather, and concur with NOAA on this developing situation. By 5 PM this afternoon, the Winter Stormcast Team will be posting preliminary "Storm Grade Amounts" for representative locations in the Mid-Atlantic, as posted in a data graphic on this page. 

We have high confidence this event will be a significant snowfall for many areas east of Interstate 81 along the Mid-Atlantic and into the Northeastern U.S.



STORM SYNOPSIS: The arrival of a cold high pressure system last night across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast has become the "game changer" of this storm situation. Low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico today will move northeast to off the North Carolina coast by early Saturday, and northward to New England by Sunday. Due to the pressure gradient interaction that is likely to setup between the coastal low and the cold high pressure system, we are in fact looking at a classic winter storm scenario for the populated areas of the I-95 corridor from Washington DC to the Baltimore region to eastern Pennsylvania, most of New Jersey, eastern New York and New England. 

Graphic:  Surface Low Tracks as projected by NOAA NCEP. 

PRIMARY HAZARDS: The multi-state Winter Storm Watches that started this Happy Friday for millions of people may seem like a joke in October, but belie a greater danger: Leaves. With 80% of the foliage still on trees throughout the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, a heavy snow event, even if 3 or 4 inches, could produce surprisingly disruptive power outages. The moisture content of any snow falling this time of year will be much higher than what would be observed in mid winter. Our main concerns:

* POWER OUTAGES: While 8 inches may fall in places like Lancaster or Harrisburg in PA, and Westminster, Frederick or Rockville, MD-- perhaps just 4 inches will reach the ground due to the sun evaporating away the snow as it falls. However those 4 inches might actually contain 1 full inch of water. The weight of this water-laden snow on full foliage may produce extremely disruptive and complicated outages.

* VISIBILITY: In Pennsylvania, New Jersey and along the I-95 corridor from Philadelphia to Washington, rain on Saturday should mix with and change to snow as the afternoon progresses. However, once snow does fully change over, we expect it to be falling rapidly and in large flakes. The primary risk period is from 4 to 8 PM, as the heaviest snowfall should occur during the busiest commuting time of the day, even for a Saturday. You will probably notice how quickly the ground becomes covered tomorrow afternoon as the sun begins to set, allowing the ground to chill further as the snow falls. 

* LACK OF PUBLIC AWARENESS: A reader from Lancaster PA noted to the team, "how can we be getting 4 to 8 inches tomorrow, it is a gorgeous sunny day right now?" All we can say is that La Nina is known for producing short term, high impact events that catch many people off guard. It is difficult to accept that by noon on Saturday, those seeing blue skies presently may be digging for the snowshovel in the basement.  

WHY IS THIS HAPPENING? We know it is only October, and historically these kinds of winter weather events do not happen this far outside of winter. However, a resurgent La Nina has played a major role in the variability and frequency of both hurricanes and mid-latitude cyclones. As NOAA stated in the recently released Winter Outlook, "“There is a wild card, though. The erratic Arctic Oscillation can generate strong shifts in the climate patterns that could overwhelm or amplify La NiƱa’s typical impacts.”  It is interesting to note that just over a week after this statement, the Mid-Atlantic faces a wild card storm event that is, ironically, occuring just as the Arctic Oscillation is currently in a negative trend.

NEXT TEAM REPORT: Our Winter Stormcast Team is assembling a new overview presently, and will post this afternoon on this site as well as in our Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Winter Stormcast Zones on facebook.

(Forecasters Foot, Jason and Dakota. Advisors Dr. Pete Winstead, Brad Lear Keith Krichinsky)

Thursday, October 27, 2011

15 comments:
October Surprise, Part II ?

11:00 PM EDT 10/27/11 | TEAM STATEMENTS ON WEEKEND STORM | Please visit the Mid-Atlantic Winter Stormcast Page in Facebook for rapid access to our storm projections organized by state for the Halloweekend winter weather event.


4:30 PM EDT 10/27/11 | WINTER STORMCAST TEAM UPDATE | Last night, the Winter Stormcast Team released a statement regarding the potential for some flakes mixing in with rain this weekend. However, latest computer model projections show that we will not be getting off as easily as we thought. Snow may be more of an issue here in Central Maryland than the computer models once indicated. With trees still full of leaves and potential wet snow in the forecast, power outages could be a major issue this weekend. 


Your Foot's Forecast Mid-Atlantic team will be collaborating for most of the evening to work up a detailed *TEAM STATEMENT* to be released between 9:00 PM and 10:00 PM tonight. This weekend will be very busy like usual with activities such as Homecoming and Halloween festivities. If you have anything planned for this weekend, we urge you to keep checking in for more on this developing situation. (Lead Forecaster Connor Meehan)


7:30 PM EDT 10/26/11 | WINTER STORMCAST PRELIMINARY STATMENTAlthough the Mid Atlantic has had several mild days recently, major changes are coming to the region later this week. A cold front will usher in a significantly cooler airmass by late Thursday. We are watching for the potential of a weak storm to develop off the Carolina to Mid-Atlantic coast late Friday into Saturday. Temperatures across much of the Mid Atlantic Friday night will be in the upper 30s, and this will allow for a chilly rain to fall. Although these temperatures do not usually support any snow, temperatures throughout much of the atmosphere will be below freezing. 


TIMING: From the early morning hours Saturday through mid-morning, we believe there will be the possibility for snowflakes to mix in. The best chance for this will be across the northern and western suburbs of Washington, D.C. and Baltimore. However, areas within 25 miles of the Chesapeake Bay will have a harder time mixing with snow due to the warmer temperatures over the bay. 

IMPACTS: At this time we do not expect any snowfall accumulation for any portion of the region, and we are not expecting a period of all snow. Rainfall amounts will be up to one half inch, with the highest amounts across eastern portions of the region. Although this storm system should not have any significant impacts for the region, it is not a common occurrence for snowflakes to fall along the I-95 corridor in October. 

NEXT UPDATE: This is an evolving situation and our team is continuing to monitor for changes to any computer model projections, as well as traditional meteorological analysis of current observations. We will report on our findings as the evening progresses.  

(Author: Forecaster Jason M. Collaborators: Forecasters Ross H., Mike N.)