Monday, December 3, 2012

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The Proverbial Calm...Is Over

7:40 PM PST 12/3/12 (Special Western U.S. Report by Affiliate Forecaster Ben Randall) 

Readers in the Pacific Northwest who have frequented our zones in the Tri-Cities & Mid-Columbia area of southeast Washington, or Seattle & The Sound, recall that last week we welcomed Forecaster Tanner from of southwest Washington. This week we are expanding directly to the Pacific coast, welcoming Forecaster Ben Randall from Tillamook, Oregon. Ben has prepared this overview of the Pacific coast storm situation that will affect much of the U.S. in the next weather pattern. Ben reports:
  • HIGH WINDS: First concern with the next coastal system is the potential for high winds along the coast especially as usual along the exposed beaches and headlands. It appears likely Oregon will see 60-65 mph winds along the beaches and headlands though can't rule out a 70 mph wind gust as the front comes onshore. For this reason, High Wind Warnings are in effect from 12 AM to 12 Noon Tuesday for the South WA , North and Central OR Coasts near beaches and headlands . 
  • FLOODING: The next concern is potential for flooding on some of the area rivers. This all depends on where the heaviest rain falls. As of right now current models suggest the farther south the system will move, the greater chance flooding may occur from heavy rain. The NWS has issued a Flood Watch for all of NW Oregon, but not in SW Washington at this time. 
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Western States         

Winter Stormcast Pacific Northwest
WeatherOn* (SW Washington)

Seattle & The Sound
Tri-Cities & Mid-Columbia  (SE Washington)

Sunday, December 2, 2012

What About Winter?
An overview of our season forecast the Winter Stormcast Team 

Current US / Canadian snowcover. 

as of DEC 2, 2012

12:15 PM EST 12/2/12 Our earlier statements from November 2, 2012: 
"We expect November temperatures to end how they started: Below normal heading into December. This shift back to cold by Thanksgiving should be accompanied by a period of potentially high impact winter weather in the Eastern U.S. by mid December, followed by a warmup into January for those same areas." 
"The cancellation of an expected El Nino this season in the central Equatorial Pacific should lead to significantly above-normal temperatures in January 2013 for the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. In short, if you are going to plan a ski trip east of the Mississippi, schedule it for the next 30 days. 
If your company or organization wants to avoid any surprises this season, we invite you to consider our winter weather intelligence services."

WINTER 2012-2013 as of December 1, 2012

  • Storms As a result of the influence Hurricane Sandy and the Nov 7-8 Winter Storm had on upper level atmospheric interactions in the Northern Hemisphere, we expect one or more large scale, high impact winter weather events in the Eastern U.S. and Mid-Atlantic between November 25 and December 20.
  • Temps A period of much-below normal temperatures from late November to early January, similar to the Dec 1989 cold wave, followed by a significant warm period in the East for January 2013, ending with a brief return to cold, stormy weather by mid-February.*
  • Snow  Near- to below-normal snowfall east and south of I-81, above normal snowfall for the Great Lakes, Midwest, Ohio Valley and New England.
  • Ice  One or more significant storms in the eastern U.S. in Dec 2012 & Feb 2013.
  • Rain A wetter winter than in 2011-12 for much of the eastern U.S., and more arid for the western U.S.

The recent atmospheric influence of Hurricane Sandy suggests a continuation of  50-60 day "Long Range Cycle" which has been hypothesized by others as the driver for the 2-years running frequency of high impact events across North America. The significant build-up of snow cover in Canada this early in the season also increases probability of one major inland-to-coastal event in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast similar to the January 26, 2011 "snow monsoon" storm. 

For storm-weary residents, companies and municipalities alike on the U.S. East coast, we believe there will be a 10-day period of calm to allow for regrouping and planning for winter from November 8 to 18. However, following that time, we urge you to consider preparing for a period that for some, may deliver 80% of your winter weather in a 2-3 week time frame. 

*Temperature projections derived from our interpretation of NOAA monthly forecasts for Dec-Jan-Feb by the Climate Forecast System 2. 

Review our earlier "Featured Articles" which led up to this official statement.

Saturday, December 1, 2012

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Summary of Products and Services
  • Real-time interpretative services for facility operators, entertainment coordinators, performers and local officials
  • Dedicated on-site support to transportation and emergency operators 
  • Promotional forecast products for internal or public release  
  • Engaging public outreach presentations at festival and outdoor events
  • Long-range climate education & seasonal analyses for risk managers
       Our August 2012 Grand Prix Team of meteorologists & forecasters 
      at the Baltimore City Government's Unified Command Post 

      Recent Partners & Clients
      • Baltimore City Mayor's Office of Emergency Management: Provided on-site consult in the City Emergency Operations Center during Hurricane Sandy and the nationally-televised Grand Prix of Baltimore in August 2012. 
      • Dew Tour/Ocean City: On-site support &amp and Fusion Forecasting to the Ocean City Department of Emergency Services for the Pantech USA Dew Tour in 2011 & 2012.
      • Baltimore Office of Promotion and The Arts: Served the 17th annual Book Festival as the official on-site weather forecaster and worked with the guest services staff providing public weather education activities. 
      • Caroline SummerFest: Public outreach &amp and forecasting consult to County Emergency Management and event organizers for August 2012 SummerFest.
      • Bel Air Downtown Alliance: Official forecasting service of the MD State BBQ Bash, First Fridays, Outdoor Movie Night, Girls Night Out. Delivered on-site forecast consult to event organizers prior to impending weather events.  

      Friday, November 30, 2012

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      "Better Get The Thermals"
      - Forecaster Aaron Taggart, the London Zone

      11:40 AM GMT 11/30 (British Isles Team) While our readers in the United States will soon be welcoming an early winter warmup, those in the UK are on a round trip ticket with the Polar Express. If you're in the M25 area of London or across the British Isles, we offer this update from Forecaster Aaron as posted last evening in our London zone:

      Thursday, November 29, 2012

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      Honoring The Global Rainbow
      Image credit: A public art project by Yvette Mattern

      A mosaic of lasers streamed across NYC in honor of those
      who have suffered and lost in Hurricane Sandy.

      10:45 AM EST 11/29 - Honoring the #GlobalRainbow (The U.S. Team) While the weather is calm today, we wanted to do our part in marking one month since the devastating impacts of Hurricane Sandy on New Jersey and New York. We know some are still a long way to recovery. We hope the NYC public art laser show is an inspiration to you. Our Metro New York Team in Facebook also did a special feature on it this morning.

      Details on the public art project by Yvette Mattern in this article from the UK's Daily MailIf you caught some imagery of the lasers in your neighborhood, and would like to share here on the page, please post in a message. We would welcome featuring your photography on our cover page from time to time. It's part of our "authentic approach" to local weather, and honoring those who have lost so much.

      By the U.S. Team of Foot's Forecast

      Wednesday, November 28, 2012

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      "I wish I had a river..."
      - Joni Mitchell in the single River 

      12:05 PM EST 11/28 (Long Range & Affiliate Teams)  For our western U.S. readers looking ahead for any clues in the long range, you might find yourself wishing for a river. Why? You're going to need one to handle the Pacific precipitation onslaught coming in the next 10 days. What does it mean for impacts to US weather? We will detail that in additional team-wide analyses from west to east, posted here as the day progresses.

      NOAA Pacific Water Vapor Flash shows the approaching river

      FROM THE WEST: Our Affiliate Forecaster Tanner P. from, being first at the gate with upcoming effects of the Pacific storm train, has posted this statement from his Long Range Blogger Charlie P:  
      "Remember how I was talking about the downfall of the storm train? Well, it's going to ramp back up again. It won't be a high-speed Japanese bullet train; I'd consider it more of your typical Amtrak train. Northern California will get absolutely drenched with rain over the next week as an atmospheric river stalls over the area. After the 6-10 day time frame, models generally predict that the northwest will continue to stay warm and wet, and the southern part of the U.S. will be warmer and drier."

      FROM THE EAST: Forecaster Mike Natoli in our Central Maryland team is seeing the early stages of a this hopeful warmup in the local forecast for that area, as posted at 10:45 AM this morning:
      "It has certainly been a cool month of November across the region. As  compared to average temperatures, this will likely be the coolest period since January of 2011! However, pattern changes are on the horizon, and we could have some warmth coming in for the first week of December! 
      FRIDAY & BEYOND – Under partly sunny skies, Friday’s highs will climb back to the upper 40s. Highs in the 50s will dominate through the weekend, but by early next week, we may have a shot at reaching 60ยบ!"

      Tuesday, November 27, 2012

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      "Some things gotta give now..."
      - Lyrics from One Thing, by the UK Band One Direction

      7:10 AM EST 11/27 (Forecaster Zach & The Metro New York Team) Welcoming One Direction to the United States! Who's pumped to see the singers perform headline at Madison Square Garden next week? Our local team sure is excited for this latest "British invasion!" We have epic schedule of fusion forecasts planned for the band's US visit this week.

      Photo credit: 
      One Direction at the Ellen DeGeneres Show

      WHAT'S THE ONE DIRECTION CONNECTION? Those of you who have been following our team know it is led by students like us right here in New York, and over 75 other local forecasters across the US. We even have team forecasting in Northern Ireland and London. So it seems only right that we reach out to the internationally-acclaimed youth band from the UK and give them a uniquely local forecast, from our team, to theirs!

      • As today's snow event graces the region with a few inches of pre-winter snow from eastern PA to southeast NY, conditions will be improving (though temps feel more like Cheshire of northwest England) with highs only in the mid 40s. 
      • By Friday's opening show in CT, sunny skies will prevail, making for a grand first opening day for your travel to the Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, CT 
      • For the weekend: Epic bright blue skies each of the 3 performance days, with highs in the low 40s to Sunday with winds shifting to the southwest.  

      We'd like to know, are any readers here planning to attend One Direction's headline concert next week at Madison Square Garden? Perhaps you have a picture or two from a holiday visit to the Gardens from a previous year. Our Weather Graphics Team is preparing special forecast graphics for the event, as part of our welcoming a fellow group of students to the US! 

      Please send any photos you would permit us to use in a forecast graphic to

      Monday, November 26, 2012

      "Call Me Maybe."
      - By Carly Rae Jepsen (not actually a forecaster)


      9:00 AM EST 11/26 - Though less than 30 days remain until the dreams of a White Christmas will end for another year, some areas of the interior Mid-Atlantic may soon see white in the winter night. Here's the preview version:
      • Accumulating snow is likely along the I-81 corridor Monday night into Tuesday.
      • "Falling snow" is possible in the I-95 major cities from Washington to New York for this time period. However it appears more probable that snow would fall briefly either at the start-- or end-- of the event. 
      • The majority of precipitation for the cities looks to be a cold and windy rain. The precip projection above shows that available moisture will be limited to less than 1/4" - not enough to produce notable snow beyond the interior mountains.
      NOAA Snowfall Probability Map: A slight (10% chance) of at least 4" for the I-81 corridor to the I-95 corridor for the period Tuesday morning to Wednesday morning.

      A Preview of "What Dreams May Come"  While this storm does not look to become a major surprise snow event. What's more important to note will be its ability to unleash colder Canadian air in its wake, and set the stage for a stormy and wintry pattern for the Eastern U.S. heading into early December.

      (Winter Stormcast Leadership Team)

      Tuesday, November 20, 2012

      Today Is The Day
      Authentic Weather 
      Comes Your Way! 

      Sneak Previews at the Official Store Facebook Page

      Special Pre-Winter Pricing:
      •  $ 15   for the famous Epic Blue Team Shirt
      •  $ 25  for a Long-sleever in Epic Blue, Classic Bold or Purple
      •  $ 35  for a Team Hoodie in one of three colors

      Best part? 
      on orders under $50 
      until December 5th

      What does "Authentic Weather" mean? 
      From the perspective of a local reader or forecaster, we define it as: 
      • Relevant to reader interests, communities, local businesses, public safety and education;
      • Locally-developed forecasts by a trusted team in your immediate area who has a applicable knowledge and interpretive skill about weather patterns.
      • Collaborative; incorporating local data, forecaster analysis and reader observations.
      Forecaster Joey of the Maryland Team 
      in the "Powderhound Purple"
      What's hoodies got to do with it?

      HELP WITH A HOODIE. For added value and a way of saying thanks for your support, we're also creating a way for readers to tangibly support these effort through a purchase from our soon-to-launch online store. The start of this year-long Capital Campaign is designed to raise the funds necessary to support three reader-focused objectives:

      Friday, November 16, 2012

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      El Nino In Twilight?

      8:30 PM EST 11/16 (Long Range Team) As fans of the teen-themed dark epic "Twilight" bundle in front of theaters for the final chapter in this saga, climate watchers are abuzz over unexpected loss in a different -- but just-as-sweeping saga: The collapse of an expected El Nino for winter 2012-13 (MSNBC article: "Why El Nino May Say 'Adios' To 2012" ).

      Were Edward Cullen of the Twilight series to speak on the El Nino issue, he might simply say "I've had a bad habit of underestimating you..." So now we turn to re-assessing what this Pacific-driven change means for the long-range pattern, and why it may put the winter forecast of some organization in checkmate.  

      Image credit: Dark Wallpapers
      1. In early summer 2012, a number of computer model operated by U.S. government agencies, including NOAA, NASA and the Navy, projected El Nino reach least 1.0 degree Celsius above normal by December 2012. Private forecast companies, such as this July 2012 report by expected that a weak to moderate El Nino would build by Autumn, contributing to an above-normal winter of snowfall in the Eastern U.S.cities. While too early to tell if that will occur with certainty, it is clear the rise in El Nino, while noticeable in early summer, was not sustainable as computer models had projected.

      NOAA's Nino-Nina  "Temperature Gauge"
      of the Pacific-based Nino-Nina  phenomenon

      2. For an El Nino warming event to be classified as such, sea surface temperature anomalies in the crucial "Region 3.4" monitoring area of the equatorial Pacific must reach or exceed a positive 0.5 degrees C, and remain there for 3 months. This is reported publicly as the Oceanic Nino Index, or ONI. In comparison, by November 2009, just prior to the historic blizzard-filled winter of 2009-10, the ONI had already reached 1.0 C+ and was still rising. Presently, the ONI was last reported at 0.4 C+. 

      NOAA Animation of recent weekly sea surface temperature anomalies in the
      equatorial Pacific shows much of the region has had near-normal  levels.
      3. By September, these projections were revised downward, but the expectation of a Nino-regime of above normal sea surface temperatures for winter 2012-13 was still in play. In October, the historic observation of heavy snow in six states, as a result of Hurricane Sandy, followed by the freak East coast snow event a week later, has reinforced the expectations of some that a snowy winter for the East is still on the docket. In a few weeks, we will find out if El Nino's twilight will lead to a new pattern breaking the dawn. Continue reading for our analysis looking ahead. 

      Thursday, November 15, 2012

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      What We Said, And When

      February 6, 2010 - 29 inches - Perry Hall, MD

      For historical reference, a chronology of links to previous winter weather forecasts published on this site and in Facebook by the members of Foot's Forecast LLC.

      • 5-weeks out prediction of Mid-Atlantic snow by December 5, 2009
      • 120-hour advance forecast of 24"+ in Maryland for February 4-5, 2010 
      • "Hours before" life-saving plea urging readers to "get off the roads by 4 PM" on January 26, 2011 just prior to the "snow monsoon." Within hours, 5+ inches of snow had nearly shut down the Baltimore and Washington metro areas.

      If you relish the tales of big snow in big cities, this is a trip down performance lane that'll make your back ache all over again just by reading what really happened, and how much you had to shovel.

      WHAT WAS SAID WHEN... IN 2011

      "Significant banding will occur with this second system, 
      with snowfall reaching a rate up to 3, or more, inches per hour
       Timing of this event will put snowfall during the major metro rush hour."
       12:00 PM 1/26/2011 in "Weather whiplash has arrived."

      "After an unexpected blast of snow hit the Baltimore area Wednesday AM, 
      residents who had to shovel out a few inches brace for round two."
      6:45 PM 1/26/2011  WJZ-13 "Wintry Mix Blasts Through Maryland" 

      NOAA Final Snowfall Map: January 26-27, 2011 Event

      WHAT WE SAID WHEN...IN 2010

      "Our forecast team has increasing confidence a prolonged period 
      of snowy weather will occur between January 30 to February 10."
      6:00 AM 1/24/2010 in "Have we got plans for you."

      "The  I-40 Kahuna will produce significant accumulating snowfall 
      at least 50 miles farther north than what many were expecting."
      11:30 PM 1/29/2010 in "Ready for 6 inches of partly cloudy?"

       "This storm has potential to eclipse December 19, 2009 ; 
      February 15-18, 2003 ; January 6-8, 1996 ; March 11, 1993 ;
      February 11, 1983 ; December 1966, and could rival March 18-22, 1958."
      11:45 PM 2/2/2010 in "This Time I Know It's For Real."

      NOAA Final Snowfall Map: February 4-7, 2010 Event

      WHAT WE SAID WHEN...IN 2009

      "Winter weather arrives throughout the Mid-Atlantic region 
      between 11/15 and 12/5 (and) A kickoff event by 12/5."
      8:00 AM 11/1/2009 in "Break It Down Again."

      "..Projecting the first major snow event (for the Mid-Atlantic) 
      to occur between Monday 11/30 and Saturday 12/5."
      6:00 AM 11/11/2009 in "Use The Time Given To Us."

      "At one point this morning, winter weather-related advisories and warnings 
      extended nearly 1,500 miles from southern Louisiana to downeast Maine."
      12:00 PM 12/5/2009 in "Another Fabled Fifth"

      MAY EXCEED 12 inches in metro areas of Washington and Baltimore."
      6:00 AM 12/17/2009 in "We Have A Situation."

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      Winter Team Portal

      A private communication group for those interested in exploring discussions with our Winter Stormcast Team via Facebook. 

      You may join the portal by sending a request to this link: 

      Important notes about the portal
      1. A private Facebook group page operated by our team, recently created to provide you with more in-depth access to our information.
      2. Joining the portal will not result in you receiving "friend requests" from us
      3. "Chats" will only occur during teleconferences.
      4. "Posts" will be made about twice a week, updating you in information to go public.
      5. The portal is a FREE, two-week trial effective 11/15 to 11/30.

      Tuesday, November 13, 2012

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      "...what to do with 
      the time given to us." 
      - Gandalf, in The Hobbit (YouTube clip)

      6:25 PM EST 11/14/12 (Winter Stormcast Team) With U.S. snowcover already at 30% and the majority of Canada well-coveredPowderhounds know the time is drawing near to start waxing the board and checking the bindings. For those in the transportation, utility and emergency management communities whom have followed us the past, you know when we start ramping up the language, we're not just whistlin' Dixie. 

      As Gandalf said, "All we have to do is decide what to do with the time given to us."

      "HOW ABOUT THE QUICK FYI?"  If you insist, here's the reason for the hub-bub:
      • Strange as it may seemwe are not predicting a long, brutally cold winter with high levels of snowfall for these same areas. Why? An expected El Nino collapsed back to  near neutral, so the traditional influx of warm Pacific moisture that accompanies Nino patterns (as was observed in recent years such as 1997-98, 2002-03 and 2009-10) is less likely this winter. But we expect this to be another "hybrid winter."
      • So what's the deal? Instead of a knock-down, drag out winter, envision your operational management plans if your facility or location were to receive 80% of your winter weather within a 3-week period-- leading up to the holidays. 
      • And the rationale for that? The run-up of snowcover may permit large and cold high pressure systems in central Canada to build up. When they eventually move southeast toward the U.S. the calendar will have moved to December. This factor combined with above normal sea surface temperatures in the western Atlantic, and a generally more-slow moving storm pattern, means any coastal storms -- in similar fashion to Hurricane Sandy, may be able to throw back a lot of moisture of over large areas. 

      Interested in a FREE preview of access to our team's internal analyses? We invite you to attend a special 30-min "Q & A" Long Range teleconference call with the Winter Stormcast Team on THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 15 at either 10:00 AM or 2:00 PM EST.

      If you are already a member of our Winter Risk Email List, then you'll receive an invite today. If you'd like to join the no-spam, secure, no-obligation list for the Q & conference call, send us a short note to

      Monday, November 12, 2012

      1 comment:
      Don't face a tough winter alone.

      (Photo credit: The Epoch Times, taken in Point Pleasant, NJ)

      A high-impact pattern is taking shape heading into winter. Don't you deserve better support than relying on a 99-cent Smartphone app, staring at a radar loop, or basing tough decisions on a 30-second Weather Channel graphic? 

      We have what you need. Immediate answers from a dedicated, local forecast team that works directly with you, every step of the way. That's what Winter Consulting Services with Foot's Forecast can do for you. 

      FEMA-trained Forecaster Aaron Salter of the Maryland Team
      working with Baltimore Gas & Electric representative
      in a county operations center during Hurricane Sandy
      Local support, when you need it most.
      GET A FREE PREVIEW of the updated Winter Risk Assessment
      REQUEST A FREE QUOTE for local Winter Weather Consulting
      LEARN MORE ABOUT OUR Client Engagement Procedure

      What We Do. Foot's Forecast LLC is a private company which can deliver high-value, cost-effective local decision support in any of the lower 48 states.
      • Real-time interpretative services for facility operators
      • Dedicated on-site support for emergency management specialists
      • High-impact decision graphics and briefing reports for coordinators
      • Long-range seasonal & climate analyses for risk managers
      • Event promotion & outreach for outdoor event directors

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      Our performance in their words

      "You guys have always been spot-on, you've never the City down."    - Ocean City MD Department of Emergency Services.  2011-12 Dew Tour 
      Forecaster Paul Bauer with Ocean City Emergency Services at the 2012 Dew Tour 
      From Baltimore City, MD to Atlantic coastal communities such as Ocean City, MD., the advance information we deliver has helped our partners take cost-effective, safety-focused actions, reducing impact of weather on facilities, staff, customers and the public.

      "I don't worry about the weather anymore, the Foots team does the worrying for me."  - Bel Air Downtown Alliance 

      Whether large-scale event promotion such as the Baltimore Office of Promotion & The Arts, the Pantech USA Dew Tour, or dedicated on-site consult to the Baltimore City mayor during Hurricane Sandy, our team has served public safety agencies, school systems and private organizations alike with detailed climate and weather intelligence.  

      CEO Rich Foot briefing the staff of Baltimore City Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake
      in the city's Emergency Operations Center during Hurricane Sandy.
      Review our Fusion Forecasting or Winter Services
      and we're ready to work your event with you.

      Recent Testimonials
      Robert Maloney, Deputy Chief of Emergency Management and Public Safety for Baltimore City Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake:
      “The Foot's Forecast Team has been instrumental in helping Baltimore City officials stay well-informed of weather hazards. The level of detailed weather intelligence provided has been necessary given the significant events which have affected our City of late.”  
      Joe Theobald, Director of Emergency ServicesTown of Ocean CityMD; following the August 2012 Dew Tour:
      "The Foot's Forecast Team does commendable work assisting our city in difficult weather events and helps promote our many public events. Our department is grateful for the team's dedication and commitment to us." 

      Scott Walker, Executive Director of the Bel Air Downtown Alliance, Harford County, MD; summarizing our services provided in 2012:    
      "I don't worry about the weather anymore, the Foots team does the worrying for me."

      Peter Beaudry, Director of Public Works, City of Kennewick, Washington; in a testimonial letter from February 1, 2012: 
      "As part of Foot's Forecast team, (Forecaster) Mark Ingalls has been instrumental in providing the City of Kennewick with accurate weekly weather projections. When a storm is projected, he provides us with more frequent updates and suggestions on preparation and response. This winter the results have been obvious to our citizens, with our major roadways being in the best shape during snow and ice events."


      If you're interested in more information about how we can provide dedicated weather intelligence services to your facility, staff or organization, contact us today: OR call our dedicated client service line: 443 | 929.0721