Saturday, March 2, 2013

"We have a situation..." 
- Actor John Amos in Die Hard 2

11:55 AM EST 3/3/12 (Mid-Atlantic & Southeast Winter Stormcast Teams

  • UPDATE: A major winter weather event is possible for the upper Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic region by mid-week. The storm is currently onshore east of Canada's Coast Range as shown left in the Surface Low Tracks map.
  • Black Ice event overnight as reported by our North Georgia Team indicates overnight low temperatures in other regions are conducive to winter weather.

SITUATION: Although the Mid-Atlantic region has been rather tranquil lately, regarding winter weather, that may change drastically into the first full week of March. Indications continue to suggest a possible snowstorm for the region from Wednesday into Thursday. At this point there is high uncertainty with the track of this system, with one scenario going south of the region, and another delivering the mid-Atlantic with a late season snowstorm. 

ANALYSIS: We do expect better consensus later this weekend as the storm is still offshore from the Pacific Northwest and should move inland this weekend. This will allow NOAA ground-based data collection systems to provide more inputs to computer models, and in turn this data  should help projections gain more clarity on potential outcomes. 

Another reason for uncertainty is that this storm would be one part of multiple storms that will have to come together to deliver a major event. Computer models at times, have difficulty  modeling these types of complex systems. Below we outline the two scenarios for this system that we see at the moment. At this time, given the current available projections, we will way each of these scenarios has a 50% chance of occurring as stated.