Wednesday, May 28, 2014

2 comments:
Why Oceans Matter: Heat Capacity & Climate



By Meteorologist/Oceanographer Alex Davies and Forecaster Mike Natoli

Did you know the heat capacity of the ocean is four times greater than that of the atmosphere? That means it will take four times longer to heat and cool a volume of water compared to volume of air under similar environment conditions. 

This is why it takes a while to boil a large pot of water when your make pasta, even though the heat coming-off the stove top burning is extremely hot. So why does that matter in terms of local or global climate? 

The ocean acts as the great regulator of our land surface temperatures, especially near the coast, and help to re-distribute heat from the equator to the poles through large-scalar surface current like the Gulf Stream, and through deep-ocean currents known as Thermohaline Circulation (meaning "heat" and "salt") or the "Ocean Conveyor Belt." 


"Ocean Conveyor Belt" from Oceanmotion.org
Have you ever noticed that on hot summer days in mid-summer, it is more pleasant in places along the coast like Bethany Beach, Delaware or Fenwick Island, DE compared with inland locations like Salisbury, Maryland, Dover, Delaware, and Richmond, Virginia? 

This was because the ocean temperature during that time was only in the upper 70s, while the inland air temperatures were topping-out near 100 degrees, or more. The same thing happens in the early winter as places near the ocean or along The Chesapeake Bay or Delaware Bay often have a tougher time getting "all snow" events as the air temperature is being impacted by the relatively warmer water temperature.
So if you are looking for a snowy winter ahead, ironically you would want a COLD Chesapeake Bay and a WARM western Atlantic! We will soon take a long range look at that possibility in a future post.



Tuesday, May 13, 2014

40 comments:
Opportunities For You.


We Believe Everyone Makes An Impact. 
On our team, the best innovations come from the creative forward-thinking of our members who collaborate across the country.

Being a member of Foot's Forecast is more than a title. Your talents and abilities have wide impact on a readership of 100,000+ and range from working with Emergency Managers and Event Coordinators, to the media and the public.


Opportunities are available for energetic applicants who can contribute to our bigger story, and see the value of working in a team while gaining experience and serving others. 




Start the conversation: team@footsforecast.org
or
Move on it now Complete our text-only application

We Share Your Passion For Weather. 
We welcome applications from those in the workforce seeking a different venue for their talents, from students in high school or college up to those in the professional community or if working from home. It all starts with having the passion to collaborate with others. On our team, our members celebrate your effort across the country, and you are welcomed into a family of supportive, multi-talented professional forecasters of all ages.




Advantages for our members
  • Credit internships to students in high school or college 
  • Travel grants o attend conferences & events with the team
  • Professional presence with business cards/email account
  • Team-building activities with sports and outdoor events 
  • Media features gaining national recognition for students
  • And, in case you didn't notice... we do kick back and have fun
Innovate your future 
We seek epic people ready to make a difference 

    Local & Specialty Forecasting
    • Weather: Forecaster | Lead Forecaster | Regional Forecaster
    • Science: Climate Analyst | Data & Research | Environmental
    • Sports: Surf & Sail | Powderhound | Sports Forecaster
    Social Multi-Media & Technology
    • Fusion: Photographer | Forecaster | Graphic Design 
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    • Technology: Applications Coordinator | Systems Coordinator
    Business & Marketing
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    • Finance: Director | Coordinator | Researcher

      Connect today
      Questions? Chat with a member of our Leadership Team? 
      Send a simple message to team@footsforecast.org. 
      We will get back with you, and get it going.


      Isn't it time you take the Right Step for your future?

      Members of our Leadership Team at the 2012 New Orleans Conference
      of the American Meteorological Society


      Monday, April 21, 2014

      No comments:
      Snapback Into Summer?

      OUR LONG RANGE TEAM EXPECTS THE COOL DOWN TO CONTINUE 
      INTO EARLY MAY, THEN A POSSIBLE RAPID INTRODUCTION 
      TO SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER BY MOTHER'S DAY

      8:15 PM EST 4/21 - If you've never heard of the "Rubber Band Theory" of long range forecasting, our short version is below. The concept was first attributed to Dr. Joel Myers, founder of AccuWeather. (Note: This is the geek side of the rubber band theory, there is a well-developed body of work on this idea in how men & women behave in relationships... something way more complicated than weather.)

      The Rubber Band Theory (in weather) goes as follows: The longer duration of an abnormal weather pattern (such as below or above normal temps), the more likely that when that pattern eventually breaks, it does so violently and in a short period of time. Much like a rubber band will snap back more rapidly the longer it is stretched apart. 

      This year, if the theory is correct, the seemingly endless parade of blue colored long range maps will come to an abrupt end. What we believe will follow by Mother's Day is a "snapback" to much hotter conditions - and temperatures in this scenario go WAY above normal for much of the country. 

      How viable is this idea? Only time will tell. If life experience is to be counted as worthy of inclusion in the climate record, this writer remembers like yesterday a searing hot April day in 1985-- the 24th to be exact, when temperatures during a Spring track meet soared to 94 F in suburban Philadelphia. 

      The very next year, on the same day, it snowed 2 inches-- April 24, 1986. Let's hope this time the snapback goes in the hot, not cold, direction!

      Forecaster Foot, Long Range Coordinator Nic Roberson and the Long Range Team

      Saturday, April 19, 2014

      No comments:
      "Every rider dreams of coming here... 


      ...then dreams of coming back."



      Envision the fun of skiing a trail that starts on a snow-covered glacier, and finishes near the patio of world-class, yet affordable restaurants. 

      Experience a day that begins with a sunrise ski on fresh powder, then takes on a thousand foot zip line over an alpine valley, followed by a mid-afternoon lakeside horseback ride, and ends with night snowmobiling.


      Explore the opportunity to bring your friends and family with us to North America's premier all-season resort that hosted the Winter Olympic Games in 2010, and our team in 2004. What and where is this place?

      Photo credit: The Whistler Vacation Club
      It's the one and only Whistler-Blackcomb,
       we're going back April 3, 2015
      and you're invited.

      Additional details this weekend on registering your email to receive 
      the trip "FootNote" and an infopacket on dates, costs and options.

      To get inspired now and start thinking ahead, 
      view this inside look at the Whistler experience from the perspective of a resident, 
      who's also a parent of two young budding skiers, sharing an infectious love for the sport.

      Video by Warren Miller Entertainment


      Saturday, April 12, 2014

      5 comments:
      Two words for the wise: El Nino

      INDICATIONS SHOW "MODERATE" WARMING IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC IS UNDERWAY, SETTING STAGE FOR A TROUBLESOME  WEATHER PATTERN NEXT 6-12 MONTHS. 



      6:30 AM 4/12 - "So you are predicting a rough winter coming up, but aren't sure about MONDAY? Meteorologists just crack me up." 

      Many of our long time readers will notice if they examine our reports on this site, and in our local Facebook forecast pages, that the our team hardly ever delves into the "climate change" arena. Is this because we don't have a stance on the subject, are afraid of it, (or maybe we are part of the global cover-up, and just don't realize it...?)

      No, in reality we elect to maintain a "forecast local, think global" approach. We choose to focus on relatively short term, observable and verifiable data in climate science, while keeping an eye on the underlying long term trends. For our readers and clients, we believe that your immediate need are more likely to be "what's the deal with next week?" or "give me a sense of next winter" than "how much time left before I have to put the house up on stilts?



      EL NINO IS COOKING, ARE YOU READY? 
      We closely examine climate data and known trends to identify what types of long range patterns are most probable in the near future. We believe if you have a general idea of what's coming the next 3 to 6 months, you can more effectively plan your life or business needs going forward. When rough times do hit, such as a repeat of winter 2013-14, or an Isabel-like event, we hope the foreknowledge of what's possible aids in your resiliency and recovery. 

      Here's a look at the indications we see from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, with a brief explanation below the summary. True long range watchers, oceanographers and climate scientists already know why this graph gets us going, and should be a message to purchasing agents who want to be ahead of the game by next winter.


      WHAT THIS CHART MEANS: 
      It is month-by-month measure of changes in sea surface temperature (in degrees Celsius) across different regions of the Tropical Pacific. The most important of the 4 regions shown below is "3.4"  as noted in the center of the chart. 





    • Region 3.4 is the universally identified "indicator" chart that NOAA and the Climate Science community hang their hat on when gauging status of Pacific warming (El Nino) or cooling (La Nina). 

    • Red indicates sea temperatures are above normal, blue is below normal -- relative to the time of year. It is plain to see that 3 of the 4 measured regions in the Pacific are showing a fairly rapid warming that commenced in February 2014 and has continued well into April.

    • Long term historical climate records of El Nino events going back 50+ years show that moderate episodes of warming in Region 3.4 -- (influential factors in recent winters such as 2009-10 and 2002-03) -- got underway in April, and never looked back. 


    • THE BOTTOM LINE FOR YOU (AND US)?
      • Once warming in the crucial El Nino Region 3.4 starts, it usaully becomes a major  driving factor in weather patterns for the 6-12 months ahead.
      • Influence on the southern jet stream and Atlantic wind patterns can disrupt hurricane formation, hence the recent outlooks for a less active tropical cyclone season.
      • Reduced tropical cyclone activity in the Gulf and East coast allows sea surface temperatures to be less disturbed, and in turn can enter the winter season WARMER than normal. THIS becomes a key fuel source for major winter storms that develop along the coast, and was a strong factor in the Winter 2009-2010 blizzards.

      WORKING THE STORMS WITH YOU
      The important take-away for emergency managers, municipal operators and school district officials is that El Nino has signaled it's intent to return this winter. We suggest you begin planning ahead now so you are ready, if 50 years of known climate trends are of value in your long term risk management planning. 

      If your company or organization is interesting in making our weather intelligence services a part of your planning process for the seasons to come, we welcome your inquiry: team@footsforecast.org. 

      By Rich Foot, CEO & Senior Advisor - Foot's Forecast LLC

      Thursday, April 3, 2014

      No comments:
      Collaboration is the New Chivalry
      Part II of our 10th anniversary series

      After the town of Joplin, Missouri was utterly leveled by an EF-5 tornado in May 2011, many distant families and friends could not reach their loved ones amidst the total destruction.

      With the local power grid devastated, and cell service jammed, communication for some was difficult to impossible. One Maryland resident had been trying desperately to learn the whereabouts of her family, and left a comment on our central Maryland Facebook page about her plight.  

      Then Forecaster Greg Jackson, a soon-to-graduate high school senior from Carroll County, Maryland, noticed her plea and reached out. Within just 30 minutes, after quick collaboration across members of the team, Greg connected the reader to a Red Cross resource working in the vicinity of her family. Shortly thereafter, the reader's family had been found - alive. Here's a link to our Facebook transcript from May 23, 2011.

      Greg was 18. He was busy preparing for graduation to unfold in just a few days. He didn't have to make that connection, nor did he boast about it afterwards. But he did selflessly demonstrate a set of values inherent across our team to this day. It could be considered a mission of honor not unlike early Medieval codes of chivalry as originally developed in the 12th century. Later, English poet Geoffrey Chaucer, branded into society's mind the image of the knight in his famed 1387-1400 collection of stories known as The Canterbury Tales. Yet, many knights never lived up to the ideals opined by Chaucer, and history was forever changed. This begs the question: 

      What relevance do thousand-year-old ideals have in a technology-charged, app-driven culture? 

      Our team has learned the past decade these seemingly forgotten virtues of true chivalry remain as important now as when early monastic knights took a solemn vow to protect pilgrims on simple journeys to the Holy Land. Today, we seek to embody the practical truths of this knightly mission: Maintain a foundation of ethical conduct in our service to civil society, by living a life that puts others' needs ahead of one's own. For our team, it is the course of using sound, collaborative science to inform and educate the public, and doing our part to help save lives and protect property. 



      Forecaster Greg and that concerned reader searching for family will probably never meet. Yet, their lives, and ours, are forever changed, because a Squire put down his sword, and extended his hand to someone in need.

      If you, your family, company or organization would like to learn about what our forecasters could do to help in the dark hours, and the bright ones, our Advisors welcome your inquiry: team@footsforecast.org



      Authentic Weather for a Civil Society

      Monday, March 31, 2014

      No comments:
      Welcome to Opening Week... 
      and the Birdland Zone!


      "Sunshine, Blue Skies... Play Ball!" Gear up Birdland, it's that time again! This will be our fourth season forecasting in the speciality zone just for O's fans who are FF reader: The Birdland Zone on Facebook. This year we are pumped as ever to meetup with readers at the ole' ball game! Our first Birdland Day at Camden Yards in Baltimore is scheduled for the Saturday April 26 game at 7:05 PM against the KC Royals.

      More details on the 4/26 meet up will be coming this week at the zone in Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/ffbirdland



      THE SEASON OPENER In today's 3:05 PM match against the Boston Red Sox, conditions will be even better than the epic pic from Maryland reader Gloria Bethke. 

      • Starting temperatures will be hovering right around 60 degrees. These conditions will remain relatively constant throughout the game. 
      • Expect a strong NW wind between 15-20 mph that will gradually weaken as the game progresses. 
      We hope you will enjoy this long awaited taste of Spring today, what great timing to start another journey to a successful season for sports teams everywhere!

      (Lead Forecaster Tyler J, Forecaster Andy and the Birdland Team)

      Sunday, March 30, 2014

      17 comments:
      No foolin' around this time

      FOOT'S FORECAST TEAM PREPARING TO LAUNCH NEXT-GENERATION 
      WEBSITE TO ENRICH THE AUTHENTIC WEATHER EXPERIENCE 
      FOR READERS, CLIENTS & FORECASTERS. TARGET: APRIL 1.


      11:30 AM 3/30 - "We've been down that road before, but that's over now. You keep me coming back for more..." 

      If Bryan Adams were a forecaster, he might say... Baby, we know that's all that you (and we) want: A richer, more versatile website with ease of access to our local content, anywhere in the country, in as few clicks as possible. 

      In short, the time has come to move beyond blogger. Here's what we hope is welcome news for you:

      • We have read and reviewed the feedback from many readers who sent in comment to our team@footsforecast.org account in the past year. This includes the numerous requests for a SmartPhone app. Details on that will follow after site launch!
      • We have heard the pleas of teachers and school officials in many states who are stymied by the "Facebook Frustration" of being unable to reach our rapid updates in social media, especially during storm mode. 
      • We understand the fast pace of your lives and that of our clients. When you're on the go - and you just want "a quick weather report" or are en route to (or have moved) elsewhere and wonder if we have a zone in another state. 

      Ready for a sneak peek?
      Here's a look at the site while in beta form. Some features and imagery will be different for the official version.

      Saturday, March 29, 2014

      What happened to the "Lamb" part?

      No comments:
      What happened to the "Lamb" part? 
      (You know... "In like a Lion..." etc?)

      11:22 PM 3/29 - The latest discussions in our Severe Weather Team would leave you wondering what time of year it really is in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest. With Winter Weather Advisories to the north, and Wind Warnings to the south, you had best buckle up for a wild night & day of weather ahead. Here's a snippet of what some forecasters have said about the wild conditions in their areas this weekend:

      OHIO - Forecaster Jason Warren of our Northeast Ohio Zone reported that heavy rain for most of the day changed to snow earlier this evening.

      WEST VIRGINIA - Forecaster Joseph Fitzwater of our Northern WV zone said that snow was also changing over in his area, as indicated by upper level data. 

      SOUTHERN VA - Meteorologist Justin Barker, who leads several of our pages and Forecaster Nick Gilmore of Southwest Virginia reported a wide range of conditions across VA tonight. Justin was notified of pea sized hail a few miles west of his home with the front moving at 40-45 mph. He also noted that the area near Raleigh NC had tornado warnings this evening and Tornado Watches are still in effect for portions of eastern NC. Forecaster Nick stated that temperature ranges are 30 F+ between southwest VA and the Kentucky border!

      Let us know how conditions are faring in your community!


      Thursday, March 27, 2014

      Ready to ride the FLUME?

      2 comments:
      Ready to ride the FLUME?

      wave train of moisture stretching from well west of Hawaii all the way to Texas.

      7:30 AM EDT 3/27 - From cold, snow and windy to Monsoon

      As the northeast coastal bomb rolls into the Canadian maritimes, the pattern to replace it will be one of Pacific origins of a "Pineapple" variety. One look at the image above and you can plainly see the over 3,000 mile fetch of moisture that will be feeding into the southern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico the next week to 10 days. This pattern shift is going to set in motion a variety of impacts for the country the first week of April, including:
      1) New snow threats for the Upper Midwest that will build up the snowpack;
      2) A yo-yo period of pre-frontal warming in the East, followed by post storm cool shots for the Southeast, Ohio Valley & Mid-Atlantic. 

      See it in LOOP! The full scale of this next "Pineapple Express" jumps right out at you in this Java animationThe rough guide on what's coming? A very wet first week of April for much of the eastern U.S., as shown by the CPC's 6-10 day precipitation outlook. It won't technically be a monsoon, but there may be some days that'll   sure feel like it! How much of a drench are we talking? Look below to the 7-day Precip Projections from NOAA, for your eyes do not deceive:

      • 5-9 INCHES of rain for the middle and upper West Coast
      • 2-3 inches for the northern Gulf coast and the entire Mid-Altantic & Northeast coast.

      -Forecaster Foot & The Long Range Team


      Thursday, March 20, 2014

      SKYFALL?

      27 comments:
      SKYFALL?

      12:10 PM EDT 3/21 UPDATE
      POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT LATE SEASON SNOWSTORM COULD AFFECT
       MID-ATLANTIC & NE COASTAL AREAS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
      Extrapolation from European, NOAA Extended Forecast Discussion & 6-10 Day Analogs

      In the latest James Bond action thriller, when 007 and M return to the Scotland estate of his boyhood home, he knows well his surroundings (and the weather) as when he was a child. Long trained in special operations, the agent's cunning awareness can detect the finest hint of changes to come, and not just in the local climate. 

      In the video clip, 007 portends to M with brutal simplicity a fate neither they, nor us, can avoid... if long range projections about next week continue unfolding in a manner most certainly not Spring-like

      If you are prepared for the next briefing, which may end as unexpected and shocking as the final scene in Skyfall, read to the next section.


      MULTIPLE COMPUTER PROJECTIONS POINT TO A SCENARIO RESEMBLING MID-MARCH 1993 DEVELOPING ALONG MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK

      BRIEFING AS OF 1700 UTC 21 MAR 14 (1200 PM EDT)

      WHAT WE KNOW TODAY
      • As we approach the 5-day mark before "storm operations" would commence, we can reveal that both the European and GFS have been pointing to an extremely intense cyclone "bombing" off the Mid-Atlantic & Northeast coast by Tuesday night. Were this outcome to occur, it could reach a central pressure more characteristic of a Category 3 hurricane, at 970 mb as it departs northeast.
      • Liquid projections range from a relatively tame 0.50 - 0.75 to as much as 2.00" in some of the European model member. Of the 51 total members of the European suite, at least 21 members can be aggregated to suggest a mean of 6"+ for Washington DC by Wednesday morning. That said, another 30 members show lesser impact, so the scenarios at play can be summarized as "all or nothing."
      • While the origins of this storm are thousands of miles apart,  the upper level flow is in a "Cross-Polar" Pattern, which will drive large masses of cold air directly southeast into the northern and eastern U.S., overridden by a Spring-like pattern of frontal moisture streaming northeast from the Gulf of Mexico. 
      WHAT WE KNEW YESTERDAY...007 style


      • Deep and extensive snow cover across Canada is allowing Arctic Highs to maintain extreme cold in traveling south from Polar regions. Several large and powerful Highs will infiltrate the U.S. in multiple locations, and unleash a multi-day attack of cold not unlike January conditions for the period 24 through 28 March.
      • European and US computer operatives, whose exact identities remain classified for security reasons, have for several days now been depicting a variety of coastal outcomes that produce snow and wind along much of the East coast. This in combination with above-normal precipitation for both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day projections, suggests that additional oversight is will be needed for even the most trained agents.
      • Latest weather intelligence sources, using remote analysis technology provided by F, indicate that several systems of interest are expected to travel in a southeast direction from northern Canada, starting Sunday. Canadian authorities have been tracking these systems since early in the week. By Monday, the suspects may be moving through the Upper Midwest. If sufficient decryption of non-state actor dossiers can occur in time, it is believed by the Department there will be a second infiltration coming from the southern U.S. starting on Tuesday.
      • Due to concern for maintaining public calm (and securing agent identity), it is recommended that further mention of large scale geographical extent of the potential outcomes for Wednesday be restricted only to the highest security officials, pending confirmation of TS/SCI clearances by the appropriate authority. 
      DISCLOSURE NOTICE: Should this information be disclosed to unfavorable parties, the Secretary will disavow all knowledge. The next briefing on this situation is expected by 09 UTC 21 MAR 14.

      FF10
      Weather Security Department

      Wednesday, March 19, 2014

      So I'll say a little prayer

      39 comments:
      "So I'll say a little prayer, and hope 
      my dreams will take me there..."
      -lyrics from My Love, by WestLife (VEVO Music Video)


      Image credit: VEVO Video & Westlife Productions

      4:00 PM EDT 3/19 - We know it has a very rough winter for many, and like these words from Westlife's song "My Love" seeing blue skies and nice conditions again (for more than one weekend) is a common desire for all of us. 

      At least Thursday into Saturday will be the respite you need, and tomorrow, we celebrate together having completed the journey out of winter. The real question going forward: What is next for the winter that seems to know NO endOur Long Range team has been examining the situation going forward for the next two weeks, and several indications are clear, as shown in the Climate Prediction Center's 8-14 day outlook:


      • PERSISTENT WAVES OF COLD AIR will continue to dominate the weather pattern for the Eastern U.S. What's responsible for this? Deep snowcover in Canada, keeping in place that new villan we love to hate: The Polar Vortex. Meteorologists such as WeatherBell.com's Joe Bastardi have indicated this next Arctic outbreak may be the coldest start to Spring the Eastern U.S. has seen in over 50 years.
      • NOT CONCERNED YET? What if we told you that the "analog" charts from the Climate Prediction Center for next week show a date that would make ANY school official stop in their tracks and say, "What did you say?" March 13, 1993 is being listed as the #2 most similar scenario match from a large scale perspective for the period March 24-29. 

      SNIPPETS FROM NOAA (for Powderhound eyes only)
      Weather Prediction Center, as of 3/19 for the period Saturday through next Wednesday:
      "AT THE VERY LEAST, POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF SOME WINTRY PCPN FOR LATE MARCH...GIVEN COLD SECTOR TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF 10-25 F BELOW NORMAL.  AT THE VERY MOST THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SRN/NRN STREAM INTERACTION TO FORM A LATE SEASON MIDWEST TO ERN US WINTER STORM DAYS TUE/WED." (Image below: Day 5 Surface Projection from the WPC. Note positioning of the Highs & Lows)
      
      
      Climate Prediction Center, US Hazards, as of 3/19:
      "MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TWO STRONG SURFACE HIGHS (1040-HPA) ARE LIKELY TO BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA DURING THE NEXT WEEK. MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSTED FOR THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, MIDWEST, AND GREAT LAKES THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. SUB-ZERO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY MORNING, WHILE FREEZING TEMPERATURES SPREAD AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, OZARKS, AND OHIO VALLEY. THE MUCH-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK."

      WHAT'S THIS MEAN? A cold and stormy pattern will keep the East locked in an unpleasantly delayed arrival of Spring, until the Canadian snowcover can begin to decrease. Another way of saying it is that now you know the meaning behind us "saying a little prayer, hoping dreams will take us there, where the skies are blue, to see you once again."


      Sunday, March 16, 2014

      From Blue & Green... to Gray & White

      45 comments:
      From Blue & Green... to Gray & White


      LATE WINTER STORM FOR MID-ATLANTIC & CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REGION
      3-6" EXPECTED FOR DC & BALTIMORE METROS, UP TO 8" ALONG I-81 CORRIDOR

      7:10 PM 3/16 – TEAM UPDATE & SNOWFALL MAP
      (Wishing for a less white and a more green this St. Patrick’s Day?)





      With another late-season snowstorm arriving in this region, here are the latest thoughts from our Winter Stormcast team. 



      TIMING

      • We expect precipitation to begin around 5-8 PM from SW to NE. We may not be all snow to start as the cold air hasn’t arrived quite yet. 
      • Most of the Mid-Atlantic should fall below freezing by around 9-11 PM with all snow falling at that time. 
      • The heaviest snow is expected from 11PM-5AM, prior to sunrise. Snow rates will slow down towards sunrise and the morning hours, but another quick burst is possible during the late morning. 

      IMPACTS: Some accumulation may be lost initially due to warm ground temps, but once the heavier snow moves in and the temperatures get into the 20s, snow should stick fairly easily. It will still take longer to stick to roadways. Accumulations on the roadways will be slightly less than what is shown on the map. Road conditions should begin to improve when the strong March sun arrives Monday morning. 



      HOW COULD THE FORECAST GO WRONG?

      1. Overperform Scenario (25%) – We are watching the potential for heavy snow bands to set up over the region. This will be oriented west to east, and moving WSW-ENE which means that there could be areas that get higher totals if they get stuck under the band for a long period of time. We will be watching to see where this sets up. 

      2. Bust Scenario (10%) – If warm ground temps prevail and snow rates aren’t very exceptional, snow could simply fall and melt for the initial parts of the storm. The heavier snowfall rates that come in later could just not be enough to get to the expected totals. 

      LANDSCAPING ONCE SPRING COMES? To get you through these tiresome late winter days, we invite you to check out the cool projects from our partner at Four Seasons Landscaping & Nursery in Damascus, MD. They have a full range of services including patios, pools and top class landscaping for your unique property needs. http://www.fourseasonslandscaping.net/

      Stay with us and have a wonderful day (as best as you can considering the weather!) Let us know how you are coping... special dinner, trip away, Netflix festival?

      (Forecaster Mike N., Advisor Foot and the WSC Team)



      Friday, March 14, 2014

      Does Lucky Green = White?

      63 comments:
      Does Lucky Green = White?

      Latest analysis from NOAA on this developing situation:

      4:35 PM 3/15 - SNOW? RIIIIGHT. You could just hear Bill Cosby making a full standup routine on this one. But like an R & B song of recent years, "Girl you know it's true." The trend this winter has been brief warmups, followed by drastic cool downs and then, a storm. 


      WHAT'S THE TIMING? 
      • That High pressure system sliding to Eastern Canada today will begin funneling cold air southward tonight, and by Sunday afternoon we will see rain and snow mixed overspreading much of the Mid-Atlantic. 
      • Given the warm temperatures, it's obvious that the first few hours of snow will obviously have trouble sticking, or just melt on contact. 
      • By the overnight hours, snow will become heavy across much of Maryland and Virginia, and unless things change drastically, the clovers will be snow-covered Monday morning. 

      Sunday, March 9, 2014

      So sink or swim...I'm diving in

      33 comments:
      "So sink or swim...I'm diving in."
      - Lyrics from Dive by Stephen Curtis Chapman

      3:45 AM EDT 3/12 - If you're ready to take the leap of faith and full throttle it into March, better get ready to Dive in. Today, we're all going to be caught in the rush of the mighty atmospheric rivers above. The chart below shows forecasted temperatures for Thursday. Yes, the red is NOT a warm number this time.


      The northern and southern jet streams are gaming to phase later in the week, merging copious Gulf moisture with significant upper level energy to the north. The result will be as one of our meteorologist-advisors put it, a "roller coaster into March" with temperatures wildly swinging 50 degrees in less than 12 hours TONIGHT. The northern Mid-Atlantic from northwest Pennsylvania to New York and New England are likely to be POWDERHOUND CENTRAL for up to 2 feet of heavy wet snow is possible in those regions. 

      For regions to the south of this expected snowblast, Chapman's opening lines will best suit your weather later this week, for "the long awaited rains (will fall) hard upon the thirsty ground" and may even bring a touch of "white in the winter night" before the final stanza is sung. 

      WESTERN NEW YORK THE BULLSEYE ? At least earlier fears of a March 1958 back breaker are not coming to fruition for the Mid-Atlantic, but this will be small comfort for New Yorkers more accustomed to dry than wet snow. If you're in the region expecting snow impact, we invite you to check in with Forecaster Ronelle of our Western New York State zone for local reports as the storm approaches by midweek! 

      (Forecaster Foot and the Winter Stormcast Team)