Monday, January 12, 2015

11 comments:
Ready for the Refreezing?


  • RAIN SHOWERS INTO EVENING TO BE FOLLOWED BY NORTH WINDS OVERNIGHT DROPPING DROP TEMPS NEAR 25 F BY DAYBREAK FOR RURAL/SUBURBAN AREAS, AROUND 30 F IN CITIES.
  • STANDING WATER WILL REFREEZE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION, AND TUE MORNING MAY BE MORE "ICY" THAN MONDAY.
  • REPRESENTATIVE LOCATION BELOW FOR AREAS NORTH & WEST OF CITIES ALONG I-95 IN VA, MD AND SOUTHEAST PA

3:20 PM 1/12 - Icy and soggy Monday, then black ice Tuesday? 

(Forecaster Mike) We have another concern for some refreezing tonight causing more ice tomorrow. Temperatures are gradually warming up today, and with the help of the sun we can lose some of the ice. Still use caution through the early afternoon hours if you are out on the roads as there could be slick spots! 

TONIGHT - Showers early, ending by midnight. Then dropping temperatures. We may see the NW counties drop below freezing around 12am-1am, reaching the Bay by 4am. Most of the region will hit the mid to upper 20s tonight so black ice and refreezing of today's rain is possible. 

TUESDAY - Not much melting, with highs only expected to reach the upper 20s under mostly cloudy skies. Use caution with black ice patches possible. 

TUESDAY NIGHT - Brrrrr. Not as cold as we've seen, but lows will fall back to the mid teens. 

WEDNESDAY - Perhaps some flurries/light snow showers, otherwise cloudy and very cold with highs in the mid 20s. 

LOOKING AHEAD - Thursday and Friday shouldn't be as bad, with more sunshine returning and highs at least into the 30s. By Saturday and Sunday a warming trend will begin with dry, sunny conditions and highs pushing into the 40s. The pattern in the next 1-2 weeks doesn't look nearly as cold, as the last week, but we will see how long it takes for winter to return. Stay tuned for the latest and have a great day!

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Sunday, January 11, 2015

Stick a fork in Monday, it's done.

12 comments:
Stick a fork in Monday, it's done.
(then it gets interesting)

 WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR I-95 & I-81 CORRIDORS. HARD RE-FREEZE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS TEMPS CRASH BACK TO TEENS AND 20S. 


8:01 PM 1/11 (Forecaster Troy & the Winter Stormcast Team)  The latest radar image shows the wintry weather slowly moving into our area from the South and West. The large area of green show on the map shows there is abundant moisture in the atmosphere and this storm means business. With the sun now set, temperatures will continue to drop back down below freezing. Meanwhile, the NWS has hoisted widespread Freezing Rain or Winter Weather advisories for the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states.

SPLAT OR PLINK? - Precipitation will start to move in overnight and this will set the stage for freezing rain during the Monday morning commute. Areas in southern PA could hear sleet and snow mixed first. Temperatures will rise during the day on Monday but from Baltimore on south to Washington, the freezing rain should slowly change over to just cold rain by late morning. Areas to the North and West from Carroll and Frederick Counties into the Blue Ridge will remain below freezing for longer and freezing rain could last into the early afternoon. 


TEMP CRASH COMING - After Monday’s storm temperatures will crash into the low 20s for Monday night, which could led to refreezing issues for Tuesday morning. After that our attention turns to another possible wintry storm for the Mid-Atlantic region on Wednesday. There is some uncertainty in the weather models about the Wednesday's event and more details of timing and amount will come in after this storm shows it's true colors. 

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Friday, January 9, 2015

Are you "Wide Awake" about next week?

9 comments:
Are you "Wide Awake" about next week?

A WINTRY MIX STORM WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN STATES AND REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. COLD AIR RETURNS ON TUESDAY WITH NEW CONCERNS FOR WINTRY WEATHER FOR MIDDLE OF THE WEEK

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7 AM SUNDAY SURFACE MAP PROJECTION from NOAA

12:00 PM 1/9 - UPDATED TEAM MESSAGE ABOUT NEXT WEEK'S WINTER WEATHER 
  • Latest computer model runs as of 11:00 AM Friday continue to show a large system moving north from the southern states on Sunday, bringing extensive moisture from the Gulf and Atlantic, possibly enhanced by the return flow effect of the departing High into the ocean. 
  • The situation on Monday morning for decision-makers at schools, universities and other institutions will center on three factors: 
1) How the overnight temperature on Sunday performes compared to the forecast. What started as a rain/snow mix for Monday in many NWS forecasts is now wintry mix as temperature projections have trended to the low and mid 30s.
2) If arrival of moisture from the south comes earlier than the 6-7 AM expected for the central and eastern Mid-Atlantic, and
3) How the precipitation commences in your area. If starting as snow/sleet -- temperatures will have ended cooler than expected, and the event may have much greater impact. If starting as freezing rain by the current NWS projection for Odenton, MD, temperatures can rebound above 32 F faster, allowing for ice melting and a brief breather to clean up before round 2 gets underway Monday night! 

  • We have chosen Odenton, MD as a representative location for expected conditions along Interstate 95 in central Maryland's Baltimore/Washington metro area. View the latest updates to this NWS Hourly Forecast graphic from the Sterling VA NWS.
  • Please note that while the hourly forecast graphic suggests freezing rain & sleet mixed for Monday, the Official NWS forecast for that location has "Freezing Rain Likely" for the same time period.