Wednesday, August 12, 2015

1 comment:
August greetings...September situations

9/20/2015 Update: Check back later today for our newest pre-season assessment of climate data and winter indicators. We think it will be an intriguing read for you, considering the title is "Last Days of Summer and Legendary Winters."

WHAT'S THE LATEST? While the U.S. weather pattern is generally quiet, our long range team is conducting a detailed assessment of the current and projected status of a rapidly strengthening El Nino. Indications from NOAA data via the Climate Prediction Center's Weekly El Nino Report suggest a strong probability the 2015-16 Nino event may equal or exceed that of the record 1997-98 event, and may become the strongest in modern record-keeping. Either way, this episodic warming in the equatorial Pacific will have major implications for weather patterns (and high school seniors ;-) across the entire country and much of the Northern Hemisphere from summer 2015 well into spring of 2016. 
TROUBLE IN THE TROPICS? After the early August "monsoon" that drenched places like Tampa Bay, Florida with 10 inches of rain in ONE week, our Tropical Team remains on close watch for the potential of "near shore development." Known in weather vernacular as "home brew" - the influence of El Nino in the southern jet stream, combined with stagnant air during the summer doldrums, can easily lead to sudden sub-tropical development of systems along the coast.

WHAT ABOUT WINTER? Once our internal review of El Nino and other climate indicators is complete later this month, we will issue our preliminary "winter risk assessment" first to our paid subscribers/FF hoody alumni via the Insiders email group. Those already registered in our FREE Powderhounds group will also receive a version of the report. You are welcome to request one-click registration by sending a simple message to us via winter@footsforecast.org. 

Until then, enjoy the sunshine when you can. The pattern, and the times... will soon be a-changing. 

-The Foot's Forecast Tropical & Long Range Teams


Developing thunderstorm over the Atlantic Ocean

Tuesday, May 5, 2015

4 comments:
Preparing For Summer

5/5/2015 - Our team, and the calendar, have arrived at what we consider to be the climatological "low season" of our public forecast activity. In this period from April to late June, we customarily do not maintain a regularly updated post on this site.  For new readers who grew accustomed to our daily reports in winter, that is our high season, but not a level we traditionally maintain all year long. 

The period from June to September is reserved primarily for assessment of long range patterns pointing to severe weather potential  (such as any risk of another derecho like 2012), and close monitoring of tropical activity for signs of "home brew" systems that develop close to the Eastern U.S. or Gulf coasts. The two resources we leverage during this time include the invaluable products issued by the NOAA Storm Prediction Center and the National Hurricane Center. Links and maps are shown below.

But if serious weather hazards rise in probability at the long range, you can be sure we'll be right back on deck as usual. Until then, we don't believe you need a paragraph several times a day to find out it'll be sunny and mild. Besides, you've earned this respite from the past two harsh winters we've all survived, so go out and enjoy a calm Spring while you have it!  

--From your local Foot's Forecast Teams

Severe Weather Outlook: NOAA Storm Prediction Center

Tropical Atlantic Outlook: National Hurricane Center

Tuesday, March 31, 2015

1 comment:
The Transition Arrives

11:30 AM 3/31 - Greeting to all the Spring-a-lings out there who are yearning to see the rains, warm breezes and excitement of a new season. Although we haven't ruled out more flakage in the near future, Spring readers know the next season brings a new round of weather thrills. Thus, for the next few weeks the team and the rest of us will be living somewhat of a dual existence: One eye to severe storms - the other on short term winter weather threats. 

Forecaster Joey in Wakefield.Nebraska, June 2014
on his annual Storm Chase with the Nimbus Storm Team
Check out their 2014 Chase on Twitter  @NimbusStorms
But, as we get farther away from winter, we also begin transitioning toward monitoring and reporting on severe weather potential.

In fact, we even have a regional "heads up" page much like the Winter Stormcast Zone. It's operated by our Severe Weather Team, and lead by Coordinator/Forecaster Joey Krastel. 

If you want to stay in the loop on Facebook whenever we see severe weather potential brewing, add this page to your bookmark list: MID-ATLANTIC SEVERE WEATHER.


UPDATED NOAA SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK GUIDANCE FOR 2015
The maps that we like to share are the NOAA NWS Storm Prediction Center's forecasted outlooks for severe weather risk days as a general overview. In October 2014, the SPC made some changes in the risk categories, as indicated in the following sample (not actual forecast) maps. In preparation for the thunderstorms and outbreaks to come, we wanted to make these changes known to our readers. 




You can read more about the updated procedures for Severe Weather outlooks at the Storm Prediction Center. It is never to early to be prepared for severe weather! 

(Forecaster Joey and the Severe Weather Team)