Monday, February 8, 2016

Snow Game Is On.

Snow Game Is On.

2:30 PM EST 2/8  Winter Storm Warnings in effect for 4-8" of snow, with Rain/Snow Mix starting 6-8 PM tonight for areas shaded in the Pink for the Watch, as well as areas noted in Bright Blue for Advisories and Dark Blue for Winter Storm Watches.
  • Areas outside the watch in MD, northern VA and SE PA are expected to see some accumulating snow of a few inches possible, but the bullseye will be in central, eastern MD and SE PA.
  • See the NWS office nearest you for official details. Go to this map and click over your county for a direct link:
  • For advance reports from us by email and text, consider joining the Insiders. It's a small investment for an efficient solution: Direct delivery of the weather intelligence you need from our team without social media distraction or waiting for the next update. 

Saturday, February 6, 2016

Lady Gaga Storm On Stage

Lady Gaga Storm Coming On Stage

8:30 AM EST 2/7 - SNOWFALL AND STORM TRACK UPDATE. Overnight computer models trended colder and snowier for Tuesday. We have high confidence in an all snow event starting by 6 PM Monday for the Mid-Atlantic, with at least 4" probable for the metro areas of I-95 from Washington to New York. 

WHAT DRIVES THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE? The track the Low shown south of DC, moving slowly across the southern Bay indicates there is ample distance and time for that system to tap Atlantic moisture and wrap it back into the inland cold air. 

NWS STATEMENTS: Most area NWS offices have been laying the groundwork in their Hazardous Weather Outlooks for some time nowWe surmise Winter Storm Watches could be posted for some areas later today if these indications continue in the next set of model runs. Remain alert for the latest official statements from your local NWS office. 

TIMING: Although Monday looks precip-free for most areas  east of I-81, we advise you have alternate plans in place for Tuesday as many areas are likely to be impacted by snowfall throughout the day.  Our earlier statements are posted below. 

Unusual and highly complex arrangement for early next week points to irregular and varying precipitation types for the eastern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
  • Scenarios are all over the stage, ranging from a coastal surprise for New England to a 36-hour light snow event for the I-95 corridor starting Monday morning;
  • Hard-to-explain forecasts may confound the effort of emergency managers, schools districts and parents alike to adequately plan. We advise being ready to adjust to changing conditions and have alternate arrangements in place for surprises.

11:00 AM EST 2/6 - TEAM STATEMENT ON CURRENT & LONG RANGE PATTERN by Forecaster Jason Mitchell and the Winter Stormcast Team

PRESENT CONCERNS: We are aware many readers wish to have specifics on the upcoming winter weather event to affect the Mid-Atlantic Monday-Wednesday. 
  • The above referenced map depicts the start of a complex and multi-day precipitation event starting Monday midday and lasting into Wednesday. 
  • It is an evolving situation and we do not have a solid lock on exactly what will happen, but are evaluating scenarios we feel are appropriate for public review. 
  • We can say it is likely many areas will see some accumulating snow late Monday into Tuesday, although at this point it's not looking like it will be a blockbuster event.
LONG RANGE CONCERNS: Investigation of the current and projected pattern over the next 2-3 weeks suggests some historical comparison between present day and the weather events of February 2010. 
  • Many of the blockbuster Northeast/Mid Atlantic snowstorms that have occurred in February over the past 60 years have coincided with moderate or strong El Nino episodes. 
  • The strong El Nino episode ongoing in the Pacific Ocean this winter has certainly made its mark on the region since late fall. 
  • Rainstorms since the Fall have been more frequent than any other year in this timeframe since 2010. 
  • The amount of moisture that was pulled into the nor'easter which became the Blizzard of 2016 is directly related to the effects of the current strong El Nino.
The big question is what can this pattern produce over the next couple of weeks, It is the most interesting and potentially stormy setup we have had in some time, and will bear close monitoring.

Wednesday, February 3, 2016

You Knew It Wouldn't Be Long...

You Knew It Wouldn't Be Long...


3:35 PM 2/4 - SURPRISE SNOW MESSAGE. Short range models have been working this line of precip more west in the overnight hours. 
  • With cold northwest surface flow and upper level temperatures below 32 F tonight, it is highly probable that any precip falling along the I-95 corridor from Washington to Philadelphia and New York will be observed as snow. 
  • Untreated surfaces will quickly become slippery, and in the wake of the recent storm, once cannot just snap a finger and expect an army of fully-functioning plows and salt trucks to appear.
  • We urge caution to all commuters who have to get to work regardless of road conditions. Friday morning may be an unexpectedly challenging time for many, even if it is just an inch or two.
  • Long range models develop a classic western ridge/eastern trough by Tue;
  • Reinforcing shots of cold air into the East Sun-Tue will bring temps below normal;
  • The big blue blob? If you want more snow, blue on this map is your friend. Additional details below on our preliminary thoughts.

4:30 PM EST 2/3 - PRELIM MODEL MESSAGE: The U.S. Global Forecast System's Ensemble Model Means for next Tuesday night depicts the following general idea:
  • A classic and deep upper level trough parked over the eastern U.S. (the bowed lines on right side)
  • A large and powerful "cut-off" Low grinding it's way toward the coast (dark blue area)
  • Let's suppose there might be a robust little surface Low.. say along the coast around the same time. You don't suppose that could result in... (:::shh! might upset the media:::) snow. 
  • Certainly not, how could it snow again?  Especially when the rain/snow line is being shown in..  er... in Charleston, South Carolina. Poppycock, hogwash, astounding... 

But possible. Above is the latest run of the European operational for Tuesday morning. If you know what to look for on this, then you'll understand why it has forecasters nervous:

  • A retrograding Low toward the coast? 
  • A large deep trough, STILL being modeled after 5 days, with 5 days to go...
  • Extremely cold upper level air that would be -30 or -40 F at 17,000 feet, and 0 F at 10,000 feet. Any precip encountering this cold air will most certainly fall as snow.
If you need to know details about this more quickly and directly from us via advance text and specialized email, the most efficient way is to consider joining the Insiders. A fast way to do that from your phone is to text INSIDERS to 25827 and receive an auto-reply with a link to our registration page, and a sample graphic issued to Insiders the other day.
(Heard there was an App? Shhhh.. don't tell the iPhone Insiders, but there is an  app ready for Android users, and an iPhone solution for those folks coming this evening. Details about app access are issued upon confirmation of your enrollment in the system.)
Next Update? Our Winter Stormcast Team is preparing an initial round of scenarios to be presented later on Thursday that will outline general possibilities for this next event. 

If your organization needs precise, real-time 24/7 winter intelligence from an experienced team trusted by large educational, contractor and corporate institutions, consider our Winter Services. Our clients would be happy to relate examples of how we assisted them in the Blizzard and for many other storms in recent years.